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PLO cash game 0.5/0.1 stacking off with top set.

 
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PLO cash game 0.5/0.1 stacking off with top set. - Mon Jul 11, 2011, 02:23 AM
(#1)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Hi all,

Following situation in a .5/.1 PLO cash game today.

Bigstack villain running at 68/5/1.3 (only 19 hand sample though)
Smallstack villain at 48/4/0.6 (53 hand sample)

I had Previously been stacked by Bigg Bad Ben by making a terrible decision on the river holding a single A with AA on board. He small bet the river, I should have called or folded, instead had a rush of blood and pushed all in, he of course shows the Nut full house made on the turn. (this was about 15 or so hands prior and total pot ~ $15)

Play as follows:

Dbl suited Aces in the small blind with 4 limpers, being OOP for the whole hand to come I elect to fill up the blind. BB checks making it 6 runners.

Flop brings an Ace with no straight or flush possibilities. I decide to check feeling one of the players in the hand will bet such a dry board. Indeed the button comes in with a 1/3 pot raise and gets myself and 2 others to call.

Turn brings 9s making both a possible straight and flush draw out there now. With 3 players behind I'm most worried about the button because our stacks are comparable and he can hurt me the most, so I check again to try and gain some relative position and see what he does. Small stack puts in almost a pot sized bet, 2nd caller folds and button min raises the small stack. At this point I figure I have to try and put the button to the test and make the odds as bad as possible for him to draw if he's doing so. I opt for a full pot sized bet, fully expecting that I'm totally committed on the river. He tanks for quite some time and then calls.

The river completes some straights but no flushes, following on from the turn decision I put it all in and the Big stack calls.

So I'm thinking about this hand and wondering whether I should have been more aggressive earlier?

Was my initial caution pre flop valid considering the OOP nature?
Should I have checked 1 street and check raised the turn or come out betting right away?
Finally was it right to continue with the commitment decision from the turn?

Note: the hand replayer seems to be giving a little grief this afternoon so I'll post the history as well:

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

PokerStars Game #64408303782: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2011/07/11 13:37:26 CCT [2011/07/11 1:37:26 ET]
Table 'Amphios IV' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: CptSpierS007 ($9.46 in chips)
Seat 2: Trapper4ic ($4.31 in chips)
Seat 3: Bigg Bad Ben ($22.85 in chips)
Seat 4: stigfossen ($8.88 in chips)
Seat 5: OMGCBF ($19.09 in chips)
Seat 6: minkel778 ($20.22 in chips)
Seat 7: cold55 ($1.94 in chips)
Seat 8: CiddKidd ($5.79 in chips)
Seat 9: urgggg ($10 in chips)
OMGCBF: posts small blind $0.05
minkel778: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OMGCBF [3d Ah Ad 7h]
cold55: calls $0.10
CiddKidd: calls $0.10
urgggg: calls $0.10
CptSpierS007: folds
Trapper4ic: folds
Bigg Bad Ben: calls $0.10
stigfossen: folds
OMGCBF: calls $0.05
minkel778: checks
*** FLOP *** [As 4c 8h]
OMGCBF: checks
minkel778: checks
cold55: checks
CiddKidd: checks
urgggg: checks
Bigg Bad Ben: bets $0.20
OMGCBF: calls $0.20
minkel778: folds
cold55: calls $0.20
CiddKidd: folds
urgggg: calls $0.20
*** TURN *** [As 4c 8h] [9s]
OMGCBF: checks
cold55: bets $1.34
urgggg: folds
Bigg Bad Ben: raises $1.34 to $2.68
OMGCBF: raises $8.04 to $10.72
cold55: calls $0.30 and is all-in
Bigg Bad Ben: calls $8.04
*** RIVER *** [As 4c 8h 9s] [Th]
OMGCBF: bets $8.07 and is all-in
Bigg Bad Ben: calls $8.07

Last edited by OMGCBF; Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 03:19 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 11, 2011, 12:49 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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for me, that's a bit early in the hand to be stacking off with a set only. There are a TON of draws out there that can beat you. Flush and multiple, multiple straights.
Most of the time in PLO games (at least the ones I've played), sets won't win a pot very often due to the number of flushes and straights that can be out there. Sets are alot better hands in hold-em than omaha.

If it was me, I'd have just called the turn bet and hoped to hit a full house on the river (and be ready to fold if the flush or a straight hits the board). I'd have also made a standard raise preflop (to maybe limit the number of people drawing at me if I hit). I'd have also put in a small raise on the flop... but... check/call on the turn (unless I hit the full house).

The flop does put three gutshot straights on the board (5,6 or 7 fills one), which in omaha someone can easily have if they started with a pair and connectors. The turn 9 gives possible straights to a river 5,6,7,10,J,Q. They could possibly have up to 25 outs to beat you.... which is ALOT.

Last edited by JWK24; Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 12:52 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 11, 2011, 08:21 PM
(#3)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Yeah the more I thought about it after the more I realised I shouldn't have let it get to the point on the turn where people are drawing at me. I should have known at that stage who had a draw and who didn't.

Even though when the guy tanked on the turn after my big raise it pretty much told me he had few outs

In the end it worked out for the best as the other two showed 2nd set (Big stack) and 3rd set (short stack). But as you say I was a little concerned I'd gotten into a marginal situation (a set only with no draws) for all my stack. In this case I got lucky and won a huge pot and had I played differently it would have most likely been a fairly small pot. But I think in the long run playing this way might be -EV.
 
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Mon Jul 11, 2011, 09:10 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
PRE-FLOP:
Love the flat in.

If you'd NOT have held the drawing value inherent in being double suited, then you would have probably been better served raising immediately (with the intent of trying to pot control with hthe betting lead mainly) to "thin the herd" a bit and make your hand somewhat easier to play.

If you'd been STRONGER and more coordinated, say AAJT+ double suited, then raising for pure value, even in this multi-way pot would have been marginally better. A hand as big as I out line really doesn't MIND a larger pre-flop pot afterall, so may as well get 'em in now.

Your hand is very good, but not necessarily a "world beater" on a lot of flops, and since it will "like" the smaller pot sizing if all it does is flop a nut draw, I think the flat in is perfect. Lots of people in PLO will tend to over value, and then over commit, to AA hands, but not you...nice job.

FLOP:
Now you DO have a world beater (da nuts!), and no realy draw shots to run you down.
No sense in drying up your action with a lead, especially when your reads tell you Villains WILL bet here for you.
Sounds like an ideal slow play situation, and you go for it.

Nice.

TURN:
Basing a turn check here on "relative position" concerns are not really valid.
A check for RP is for when you believe the person to your immediate RIGHT will bet, thus "improving" your "relative position" since you'll see everyone ELSE's "response" to that bet before you must act again.

The Button, Big Bad Ben, led on the flop, so you have no real clue if one of the others will try taking that lead away, thus improving your relative position.
The most likely occurence will be it checks thru to BBB, who then bets again, still putting you in the same RP as on the flop (2 checks to act behind you), see?

But...

While the increased threats of draw outs means you want to bet hard sometime on this street to give a bad price to those draws, your hand is still the nuts. If your operative reads were solid on the flop (that someone will bet behind you), then they are not necessarily "bad" here either, and someone will probably bet AGAIN. That gives you the check/raise shot you would be looking for...

Questioning yourself now is not really going to help you much, since your check WAS well placed, and you DID get the desired result (the ability to bang the pot builder check/raise), and you did pull the trigger on that nut hand of yours.

Cold55 was so deep in the pot, after his lead, he is probably stuck here no matter what.
With an imminent side pot (and a definate one when BBB re-raises), all you gotta do is out run BBB after you pop pot to make a small gain on the hand, no matter what Cold55 has.

Remember, there is NO WAY BBB is "ahead" of you now, and the BEST he could have is T7s 23x, giving him 4 x 5's, 4 x 6's, 4 x J's, and 4 x spades (8s and 4s are "dead to him), 16 outs with 1 to come, or about 36.4% shot AT MAX.

RIVER:
Since BBB did call, and the big side pot did build, I think you did the "right thing" by jamming the rest of your stack in, despite the threats...

BBB did not simply put your last $8 in when he had the chance means that 16 outs is probably stretching what he really has, and he may well have just been raising to iso on Cold55 with a lesser set, or a top 2 pr type hand. So he may have had either the STR draw (in which case you proably lose), or he had the good flush draw (in which case you win) with his set or 2 pr hand.

Fact is, the pot is big enough now that you CANNOT risk a check/fold on that T, because you'd simply be too "bluffable" by a lower hand, and HE cannot really think you'd bet a draw that hard (half your stack) very often, so he probably HAS to call you on a lower set. This means jacking in the rest of your chips is going to get you good value, and if you are beaten, you are going to feel obligated to call most of the time anyway...

So...

to answer your SPECIFIC question now...

Nope...no need to act more aggressively earlier.
Your read gave you the info that your turn check was solid, and would result in you getitng that check/raise with the nuts in.
All being aggressive earlier may have served to do is run extra value OUT of your pot, unless you ALSO read BBB as an extreme calling station.

Your reads and description are pretty complete in the hand and I don't see that, so honestly, I cannot see anyhting "wrong" you did in this hand at all.

Good hand.
 
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Mon Jul 11, 2011, 09:13 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGCBF View Post
Yeah the more I thought about it after the more I realised I shouldn't have let it get to the point on the turn where people are drawing at me. I should have known at that stage who had a draw and who didn't.

Even though when the guy tanked on the turn after my big raise it pretty much told me he had few outs

In the end it worked out for the best as the other two showed 2nd set (Big stack) and 3rd set (short stack). But as you say I was a little concerned I'd gotten into a marginal situation (a set only with no draws) for all my stack. In this case I got lucky and won a huge pot and had I played differently it would have most likely been a fairly small pot. But I think in the long run playing this way might be -EV.
I disagree with you, and I was writing my reply as you said this.

I think you played the hand just fine.

f they wanna dra wlight at your nut hand...let 'em. The turn though is EXACTLY the time you lower the hammer, not play it passively and "hope" you set is still good.

Had you played it passively like that, and BBB then launches a big river bet, you probably should fold the best set on this board...

Yuck.
 
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Wed Jul 13, 2011, 08:54 PM
(#6)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Thanks very much JD.

Very complete analysis. Will try and incorporate those thoughts into the game.

I feel better about it now
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 04:06 PM
(#7)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
I dont understand what was with flat calling the flop there? Just pot it and bang the turn, turn brings many draws and ul probably get called pot by draws at this level ahh watever least u stil got it in......

Should def pot the flop next time
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 08:01 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
I dont understand what was with flat calling the flop there? Just pot it and bang the turn, turn brings many draws and ul probably get called pot by draws at this level ahh watever least u stil got it in......

Should def pot the flop next time
A 4 8 rainbow flop...how many draws are there out there to call a pot bet when he flops the nuts?
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 08:12 PM
(#9)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
i did say the TURN brings draws.....

potting the flop can still get 2 pair, set hands to call and sometimes stack tho.... hero prob did play the hand best since he was OOP.....controlling size of the pot pretty well. .. sorry bout that dont mind me.......
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 10:49 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
i did say the TURN brings draws.....

potting the flop can still get 2 pair, set hands to call and sometimes stack tho.... hero prob did play the hand best since he was OOP.....controlling size of the pot pretty well. .. sorry bout that dont mind me.......
Np, was just asking. I dont really see the Hero did wrong by checking that dry flop with the nuts when his reads told him there were aggro players behind. That line, with that read, will tend to give him better value, especially if the aggro's are "aware" enough to know he might be playing a decently solid range.

I too agree the Hero should lower the boom on the turn, a donk bet small may work well to get aggro's to raise, then a big ol' re-raise (of pot size of course) would really slam 'em. So it isn;t like we are far off each other...

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jul 25, 2011 at 10:56 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 03:53 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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[QUOTE=JDean;292257] Np, was just asking. I dont really see the Hero did wrong by checking that dry flop with the nuts when his reads told him there were aggro players behind. That line, with that read, will tend to give him better value, especially if the aggro's are "aware" enough to know he might be playing a decently solid range.
[QUOTE]

Per your reasoning Oku_ha_Fools, there "must" be 2 pair or under sets there for hero to get called if he pot leads the flop. Per the Hero's read though, the villains behind are definately aggro enough they are BETTING that range, thus "ensuring" his extra value from a C/R or a straight pot lead. If those types of hands are not held by the aggro's behind, then a pot lead is not likely to result in anything except fold outs for the Hero. So Hero's check/raise line gives them a chance to bluff bet hands they may have folded to a pot size lead.

Hero's hand fills all the "requirements" for a good slow play situation, and one of those conditions is the basis for my thinking here:

"You must feel that by checking your opponents may bet hands which they would have otherwise folded to a lead bet"

I am writing this is a seperate post because I replied to your "answer", and I did not want to make it appear I was "changing" my post by editing after the fact. So I do think the line our Hero took is probably a better value line than leading pot, although if a pot lead will be seen as a "donk bet bluff" by the aggro's, there is nothign wrong with your suggestion either.

different strokes for different folks...
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 03:10 PM
(#12)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
yeah tru tru thats a good point, your probly one of the only people in this forum that i can get on with sigh lol :P
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 02:54 AM
(#13)
II CoTe ll's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 417
SilverStar




just testing this out
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 10:30 AM
(#14)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
@OP, it is absolutely correct to get it in on the turn if you can, you're a huge favorite over the villains range with 1 card to come. Even against the biggest draw possible like 7sTsJdQd (monster wrap + FD) you're still a 52.5% favorite, so even against that hand getting it in on the turn would be +EV for you. And it's extremely unlikely a hand with that many outs got to the turn to boot.
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 04:11 PM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
@OP, it is absolutely correct to get it in on the turn if you can, you're a huge favorite over the villains range with 1 card to come. Even against the biggest draw possible like 7sTsJdQd (monster wrap + FD) you're still a 52.5% favorite, so even against that hand getting it in on the turn would be +EV for you. And it's extremely unlikely a hand with that many outs got to the turn to boot.
T7s QJ and the outs agaisnt you are: 4 x 6's, 3 x 7's, 3 x J's, 3 x Q's, 4 x Spades = 17 outs = 38.6% chance
(61.4% chance your you to win)

T7s 23 and the outs against you are: 4 x 6's, 4 x 5's, 4 x J's, 4 x Spades = 16 outs = 36.4% chance
(63.6% chance for you)

Dave, I am guessing you are giving the 52.5% OP chance based on double flush draws (since you show T7sQJd specificly?)

There is no double flush possible on the board Dave.

*** TURN *** [As 4c 8h] [9s]

Double d's are in OP's hand, not on the board, so only a single flush draw in spades is possible here.
8s and 4s are "dead outs" for villain too.
......................................

BAH...I SWEAR I looked and looked, and counted the outs over and over...I even looked at T7sQJ FIRST to be sure it didn't have more outs than T7s23...STILL I mis-counted.

This is why I hate omaha

Last edited by JDean; Thu Aug 25, 2011 at 04:39 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 05:44 PM
(#16)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations is your friend


Last edited by Da Sens Fan; Thu Aug 25, 2011 at 05:51 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 06:04 PM
(#17)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
ok...

WTF am I doing wrong in my calcs?

16 outs 1 time, 44 unknown cards...that gives the number I put up.

ok...

these are Villain outs versus your hand, if he has T7sQJd
(note: I am counting them from villain's perspective. He would not know what you hold.)

Ks, 9s, 5s, 3s, 2s
Qc, Qh, Qs
Jc, Jh, Js
Tc, Th, Td
7c, 7d, 7h
6c, 6s, 6d, 6h...............21 outs.

From YOUR perspective, if you are trying to think of his least favorable hand:

Ks, 9s, 5s, 3s, 2s
Qc, Qh, Qs
Jc, Jh, Js
Tc, Th, Td
7c, 7d,
6c, 6s, 6d, 6h...............20 outs.

(7h is gone because you know you hold that blocker)

I subtracted too many spades 95 not 4 are live outside of those which make straights), but where did I "miss" 3 other outs ffs! ah, the 3 x Ts.

sorry.

20 / 44 = 45.5% for Villain, 54.6% for hero if you know the 7h is dead.
21 / 44 = 47.72% for Villain, 52.28% for hero if you account for him NOT knowing the 7h is dead.

So actually, it is a 54.6% chance for hero if hero is assessing the "worst case" for him to be held by villain.
But the 52.25% shown is without the info of knwoing the 7h is "dead"

Last edited by JDean; Thu Aug 25, 2011 at 06:40 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 06:28 PM
(#18)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
I got 20 outs / 40 unknown cards but my brain is hurting trying to figure this out while multitabling

16 straight outs + 13 flush outs - 4 Spades between board / hands - 5 useless or used flush cards ( qs js 8s 6s 4s ) = 20 outs

- I could be messing it up royally though

Last edited by Da Sens Fan; Thu Aug 25, 2011 at 08:45 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 08:20 PM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Sens Fan View Post
ty Da Sens, this is exactly how I came up with the 52.5%
 
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Thu Aug 25, 2011, 08:35 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
You're going to kick yourself.

You're counting the 9s as one of the villains outs, it's not (it's the turn card).

We know our cards and his in this equity run, so there are 40 unseen cards remaining that can come. He has 19 outs (not 20), 19/40 = 47.5%
 

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