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Is this the right play?

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Is this the right play? - Thu Jul 14, 2011, 01:16 PM
(#1)
Azaruna's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 11
SilverStar
Is this the correct fold with an all-in I sensed category 1 hand but in hinesight would of won a good pot?

PokerStars Game #64554263316: Tournament #429010394, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2011/07/14 18:01:58 WET [2011/07/14 13:01:58 ET]
Table '429010394 75' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: zorik14 (1649 in chips)
Seat 2: zaazy17 (1767 in chips)
Seat 3: torente1969 (4735 in chips)
Seat 4: Pene2 (3000 in chips)
Seat 5: eucarionte (2935 in chips)
Seat 6: Azaruna (8911 in chips)
Seat 7: hidaalgo (5021 in chips)
Seat 8: salsa886 (2650 in chips)
Seat 9: jwc44 (6475 in chips)
zorik14: posts the ante 10
zaazy17: posts the ante 10
torente1969: posts the ante 10
Pene2: posts the ante 10
eucarionte: posts the ante 10
Azaruna: posts the ante 10
hidaalgo: posts the ante 10
salsa886: posts the ante 10
jwc44: posts the ante 10
Azaruna: posts small blind 40
hidaalgo: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Azaruna [Kc Ad]
salsa886: folds
jwc44: raises 120 to 200
zorik14: folds
zaazy17: raises 1557 to 1757 and is all-in
torente1969: folds
Pene2: folds
eucarionte is disconnected
eucarionte has timed out while disconnected
eucarionte: folds
eucarionte is sitting out
Azaruna: calls 1717
hidaalgo has timed out
hidaalgo: folds
hidaalgo is sitting out
jwc44: raises 4708 to 6465 and is all-in
Azaruna: folds
Uncalled bet (4708) returned to jwc44
*** FLOP *** [9c 6h Ks]
*** TURN *** [9c 6h Ks] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [9c 6h Ks 5s] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jwc44: shows [Qd Qs] (a pair of Queens)
zaazy17: shows [Ac Kd] (a pair of Kings)
zaazy17 collected 5441 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5441 | Rake 0
Board [9c 6h Ks 5s 4c]
Seat 1: zorik14 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: zaazy17 showed [Ac Kd] and won (5441) with a pair of Kings
Seat 3: torente1969 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Pene2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: eucarionte (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Azaruna (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: hidaalgo (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: salsa886 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: jwc44 showed [Qd Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens

Last edited by Azaruna; Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 01:20 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 14, 2011, 02:12 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
yes, you would have gotten lucky, but playing a push like this early without a made hand is a long-term losing proposition.

You made the right play by folding, as you were way behind and only had 4 outs (16% hand equity)... and even then, basically the best you could do is to chop the pot, not win it outright.
 
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Thu Jul 14, 2011, 02:20 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Since AK has, at worst, roughly 50% equity against any other hand weaker than KK, but only if it sees the flop, turn and river (meaning that it's often best to play it by getting all-in preflop), I think it's awkward to call a raise, then fold it preflop. I think that raising youself is the better play, or calling with the intent to call future raises. In a 3-way all-in, you can land in tricky spots where AK is way behind QQ because two of your outs are gone, and you're only drawing to a chop, but that's something you have to put up with sometimes.

Someone might have a better analysis than me on this. It's a pretty basic spot, but it's still tricky, I think.

@JKW- I think that your analysis is approaching the spot from the wrong direction, since we can't see villain hole cards in reality; some villains could be pushing AQ and AQ here. Maybe. It's hard to say what they're shoving without any reads at all.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 02:22 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 14, 2011, 02:33 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
@JKW- I think that your analysis is approaching the spot from the wrong direction, since we can't see villain hole cards in reality; some villains could be pushing AQ and AQ here. Maybe. It's hard to say what they're shoving without any reads at all.
Reads would make a ton of difference here, but it's a decent buy-in (should lower the fishiness a bit... which is a big assumption). I'd be more likely to put the opp on a real hand shoving early due to that. Yes, they could be doing it with AQ, especially AQs... but most likely will be some sort of pocket pair (and whether it's 2's or Q's... you're still in the same situation).
 
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Thu Jul 14, 2011, 02:38 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
That's fair, but if both opps have lower pairs, then you're so far ahead it's ridiculous. There are a lot of combos of possible 3-way holdings, and you're only afraid of two: [AK vs. AK and non AK]; and [AK vs. KK+ and xx]. You're good to call anything else, which includes [AK vs. Ax and Ax], [AK vs. pair and pair], and other types of matchups.

It's a ranging and equity problem, and I don't think it's a simple as saying, "You're probably behind, so fold."

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Thu Jul 14, 2011 at 02:41 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 05:09 PM
(#6)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
wow whats with cold calling his all in there?? why not shove over the top ? you lose all your equity once villain shoves over the top of you, and if so i think its still a call AK this early in a tournament........

Really wierd ahwell blehh
 
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Wed Nov 23, 2011, 07:20 PM
(#7)
Azaruna's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 11
SilverStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
wow whats with cold calling his all in there?? why not shove over the top ? you lose all your equity once villain shoves over the top of you, and if so i think its still a call AK this early in a tournament........

Really wierd ahwell blehh
Well I personally would not normally risk my tournament status early on with any pre-flops all ins as its just a lottery. Much prefer to see the cards on the table and know that I have the best hand available or a very stong one to play.
 

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