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1st Hand Gamble

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1st Hand Gamble - Sat Jul 16, 2011, 10:17 AM
(#1)
De Hitman's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 299
My target for this month is to make the top 1500, I'm sitting @ around 500 with over 2000 pts and trailing the top 10 by around 400 pts, which in my opinion is to much to make up this late on, So I decided the other day to take some risks early on in the tournament to see if it would pay off, and surprise, surprise having risked 5 early exits, I have been shown the door 5 times. My inner question is how many times would i have to gamble for it to pay off and is it worth the risk. Well i no i can make the bubble if i double up in the first 10 mins as i have done this already on numerous occasions this month, and the flip side is a negative score of -30 for every time it goes wrong. So far each of my gambles has been with a premium hand AA KK QQ AK AQ and none of them have held up, so my theory is these are hands for the later stages of the tournament and true gambling hands are the ones that have been getting paid early on. ie Ace-rag KQ KJ and medium pairs
5 - 10's. So my advice is if you are fortunate enough to get dealt AA KK QQ AK AQ in the first hand and find yourself facing a decision of whether or not to call an all-in from the gambler/s who I'm sure don't have much to lose league wise other-wise they wouldn't be throwing there chips in the hat in the first hand, Then I would suggest if you don't, can't afford to lose points then mucking them might just be the best thing to do. Here is the latest of my downfalls,

 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 10:33 AM
(#2)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
Quote:
Originally Posted by De Hitman View Post
My target for this month is to make the top 1500, I'm sitting @ around 500 with over 2000 pts and trailing the top 10 by around 400 pts, which in my opinion is to much to make up this late on, So I decided the other day to take some risks early on in the tournament to see if it would pay off, and surprise, surprise having risked 5 early exits, I have been shown the door 5 times. My inner question is how many times would i have to gamble for it to pay off and is it worth the risk. Well i no i can make the bubble if i double up in the first 10 mins as i have done this already on numerous occasions this month, and the flip side is a negative score of -30 for every time it goes wrong. So far each of my gambles has been with a premium hand AA KK QQ AK AQ and none of them have held up, so my theory is these are hands for the later stages of the tournament and true gambling hands are the ones that have been getting paid early on. ie Ace-rag KQ KJ and medium pairs
5 - 10's. So my advice is if you are fortunate enough to get dealt AA KK QQ AK AQ in the first hand and find yourself facing a decision of whether or not to call an all-in from the gambler/s who I'm sure don't have much to lose league wise other-wise they wouldn't be throwing there chips in the hat in the first hand, Then I would suggest if you don't, can't afford to lose points then mucking them might just be the best thing to do. Here is the latest of my downfalls,

it doesnt matter weather you can afford to lose points or not playing a hand like AK in this situation is an automatic fold in this league because the saying is looks real good but rarley wins
 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 10:33 AM
(#3)
yahooza1's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 141
BronzeStar
WOW. could this possibly be a bad beat hand?? i mean look at that flop, top pair + top kicker + nut flush draw, you must have at least been an 85% favourite to win there and surprise surprise the hand that has totally missed the flop ends up winning. i know it's very hard folding AKs at any point in the tourney but i think in the league that the bad definitely outweighs the good here, stay away from this 1st-20th hand maddness.

also we're only just after passing the halfway point in the month and therefore plenty of time to make some points up, the top 20 aren't pulling away at the same rate they were last week so you could definitely work your way up there.

best of luck
 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 10:35 AM
(#4)
Brizer73's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 270
I saw u go H and was very surprised - i had to double check !!! That is alot sick - Thats why i try not to get involved early doors but runner runner ??? Is some1 having a laugh ???
Bring on the Premier league NOW !!!!!! B
 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 11:48 AM
(#5)
De Hitman's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 299
Yeah i hear what you'se are saying with the auto fold, but i thought i'm in a comfortable spot with 2000pts with plenty of games left to play so rather than the daily grinds we've all been playing i thought i'd experiment with a few premium hands early on. but every time iv'e gambled it has'nt paid off which is why iv'e posted this thread to just warn the few that might get tempted early on that these hands are not paying off. So as usual it's back to the grind and the fold ,fold ,fold, oh and fold just hope the batteries in my clock will last till the end of the month because its gonna get used every game now Good Luck lads and thanks for the advice
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 08:14 PM
(#6)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 860
for some reason my pocket AA/KK/QQ been holden up, which didn't happen much in old league.
I changed my style for 3-5( 2 i can't remember much i was very drunk on whiskey lol) games from playing very tight and getting pot(s) when i can and grinding the clock ( A few seconds can be making ITM or not) in-till i hit ITM, but last few games(3-5) id thought id mix it up more, well instead of just siting out when have decent stack 4000>17000, in-till ITM but i thought id try my luck BAD IDEA instead of 3-5 +++points ITM I got ---Points
Patience is name of game in this league IMO

i thought id see difference in Hubble freeroll 9000players got 80th, id say PSO league is harder (league points to think about!)
my statistics in-till lost first show down, i sat out rest tournament after i hit 30000chips because i wanted to concentrate on PSO game that just started.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 7 times while in big blind (57%)
- 1 out of 7 times while in small blind (14%)
- 13 out of 47 times in other positions (27%)
- a total of 18 out of 62 (29%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 5 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

all the best of luck/skill

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 12:04 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 08:36 PM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hi Hitman,

even though I am nowhere near the top of the League the prospect of getting and really growing a stack presented itself to me early on this evening. I was in the BB with blinds at 25/50 holding pocket tens and the whole table limped, I raised to 450 and the whole table called LOL.

The flop came KQ3 rainbow and faced with a raise and reraise after my check I had no choice but to fold. 36 off hit a 3 on the river against KQ. Entertaining but I felt sorry for the guy with the KQ BTW the 10 never came...

Moral of the story is go all in on the flop with a part of the board

TC
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 03:10 AM
(#8)
KOingDonks's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 322
I saw that, was fantastic, also saw ur AQ all in loss, that was magic gl LOL
 

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