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How big is the chance?

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How big is the chance? - Sat Jul 16, 2011, 01:28 PM
(#1)
pipergsm's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26
Hi guys,
I was just wondering how big the chances are of 2 people having a flush
at the same time, with only 3 suited cards on board.
It has happened to me several times now, and unfortunately, in most of these
cases I had the lowest cards!
Can anyone give me some percentages on this?
Thanks!
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 04:32 PM
(#2)
the_eagle23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipergsm View Post
Hi guys,
I was just wondering how big the chances are of 2 people having a flush
at the same time, with only 3 suited cards on board.
It has happened to me several times now, and unfortunately, in most of these
cases I had the lowest cards!
Can anyone give me some percentages on this?
Thanks!
I think the percentage of 1 person having a flush is 1 in 255, probably doens't help you much..... hmm.....uh....oo.... mm... maybe someone else has the answer!
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 05:02 AM
(#3)
IonelG56's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
The chances of two flushes appearing in one hand is 0.2%
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 12:54 PM
(#4)
Widzywidzy^^'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
Quote:
Originally Posted by IonelG56 View Post
The chances of two flushes appearing in one hand is 0.2%
This is the solid preflop percentage of this happening before any cards have been dealt yes? But out of curiousity, what happens to this percentage if the flop comes monotone? And what about as the hand plays out, and the 3rd suit comes on the turn or river? Surely these 'untrue' percentages rise?

Im not the best at math. :p
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 07:44 AM
(#5)
IonelG56's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
The probability of 2 or more flushes given at least 1 flush is 10.7%
The probability of 2 or more flushes given that a particular player has a flush is 20%
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 03:02 PM
(#6)
FLsnookman's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 565
chances of someone hitting a flush if i slow play aces?? 100% lol
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:23 PM
(#7)
coopster_001's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 13
BronzeStar
I was going to start a thread, but this one is similar.

The limper holds A/Q clubs, I have 7/6 Clubs and the flop is 5/4/3 Clubs...

Any idea of the odds of this happening?

PokerStars Game #69570313118: Tournament #460301719, $0.23+$0.02 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2011/10/27 7:47:40 AEST [2011/10/26 16:47:40 ET]
Table '460301719 2' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: rufi726 (2360 in chips)
Seat 2: limpThalimp (7255 in chips)
Seat 3: 7Alex7Sam7 (2715 in chips)
Seat 4: coopster_001 (6372 in chips)
Seat 5: OpasenVasya (13407 in chips)
Seat 6: Caracalero (6635 in chips)
Seat 7: muhahah1987 (2185 in chips)
Seat 8: MacsDado (4590 in chips)
Seat 9: ONLYKIEV (3778 in chips)
rufi726: posts the ante 25
limpThalimp: posts the ante 25
7Alex7Sam7: posts the ante 25
coopster_001: posts the ante 25
OpasenVasya: posts the ante 25
Caracalero: posts the ante 25
muhahah1987: posts the ante 25
MacsDado: posts the ante 25
ONLYKIEV: posts the ante 25
7Alex7Sam7: posts small blind 125
coopster_001: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to coopster_001 [6c 7c]
OpasenVasya: folds
Caracalero: folds
muhahah1987: folds
MacsDado: calls 250
ONLYKIEV: folds
rufi726: folds
limpThalimp: folds
7Alex7Sam7: folds
coopster_001: checks
*** FLOP *** [3c 5c 4c]
coopster_001: checks
MacsDado: checks
*** TURN *** [3c 5c 4c] [Jc]
coopster_001: checks
MacsDado: bets 1000
coopster_001: calls 1000
*** RIVER *** [3c 5c 4c Jc] [Th]
coopster_001: bets 1000
MacsDado: raises 1500 to 2500
coopster_001: raises 2250 to 4750
MacsDado: calls 815 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1435) returned to coopster_001
*** SHOW DOWN ***
coopster_001: shows [6c 7c] (a straight flush, Three to Seven)
MacsDado: shows [Qc Ac] (a flush, Ace high)
coopster_001 collected 9480 from pot
MacsDado finished the tournament in 17th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9480 | Rake 0
Board [3c 5c 4c Jc Th]
Seat 1: rufi726 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: limpThalimp (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: 7Alex7Sam7 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: coopster_001 (big blind) showed [6c 7c] and won (9480) with a straight flush, Three to Seven
Seat 5: OpasenVasya folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Caracalero folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: muhahah1987 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: MacsDado showed [Qc Ac] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 9: ONLYKIEV folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:38 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
well, there are 3 on the flop that are accounted for and 2 in the opp's hand. This assumes you do NOT have the A or Q of clubs AND your opp does NOT have the 6 or 7 of clubs.

That leaves 47 cards left, so the odds you get the 6 or 7 of clubs is 2 in 47, assuming you get one, there are then 46 left, you need either the 6 OR the 7... the one you didn't get on the first card (1 in 46). 2/47 * 1/46 = 1 in 1081 for you to get the 67 of clubs.

Same principle and numbers for their exact cards, so 1 in 1081.

For both together, 1/1081 * 1/1081 = 1 in 1,168,561
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#9)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
The interesting thing is if you replace AcQc with 2s9h, replace 7c6c with Ad 2c and make the flop 10h 3d 8s the answer is essentially the same, but who cares?
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 07:00 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
The interesting thing is if you replace AcQc with 2s9h, replace 7c6c with Ad 2c and make the flop 10h 3d 8s the answer is essentially the same
+1
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 07:57 PM
(#11)
coopster_001's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 13
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
well, there are 3 on the flop that are accounted for and 2 in the opp's hand. This assumes you do NOT have the A or Q of clubs AND your opp does NOT have the 6 or 7 of clubs.

That leaves 47 cards left, so the odds you get the 6 or 7 of clubs is 2 in 47, assuming you get one, there are then 46 left, you need either the 6 OR the 7... the one you didn't get on the first card (1 in 46). 2/47 * 1/46 = 1 in 1081 for you to get the 67 of clubs.

Same principle and numbers for their exact cards, so 1 in 1081.

For both together, 1/1081 * 1/1081 = 1 in 1,168,561
Thanks for that.

Last edited by coopster_001; Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 08:00 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 08:34 AM
(#12)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
Speaking of str8 flushes, here's a cooler for you.

Unfortunately, I'm the dummy .... end of the str8 flush.

PokerStars Game #69561247682: Tournament #447029272, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level II (30/60) - 2011/10/26 14:10:17 ET
Table '447029272 13' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Rotmilan72 (2480 in chips)
Seat 2: JokerAce68 (2160 in chips)
Seat 3: schmidti1956 (2760 in chips)
Seat 4: annie_22at90 (2420 in chips)
Seat 5: wetmoose 613 (1720 in chips)
Seat 6: Yarko111 (3960 in chips)
Seat 7: 007 OLDMAN (2440 in chips)
Seat 8: yonny vivas (2120 in chips)
Seat 9: Tasha4133 (2440 in chips) is sitting out
schmidti1956: posts small blind 30
annie_22at90: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to annie_22at90 [As 2c]
wetmoose 613: folds
Yarko111: folds
007 OLDMAN: folds
yonny vivas: calls 60
Tasha4133: folds
Rotmilan72: folds
JokerAce68: folds
schmidti1956: calls 30
annie_22at90: checks
*** FLOP *** [4c 3c 5c]
schmidti1956: bets 120
annie_22at90: calls 120
yonny vivas: calls 120
*** TURN *** [4c 3c 5c] [6c]
schmidti1956: bets 120
annie_22at90: calls 120
yonny vivas: calls 120
*** RIVER *** [4c 3c 5c 6c] [Qc]
schmidti1956: checks
annie_22at90: bets 780
yonny vivas: raises 1040 to 1820 and is all-in
schmidti1956: folds
annie_22at90: calls 1040
*** SHOW DOWN ***
yonny vivas: shows [7c 8c] (a straight flush, Four to Eight)
annie_22at90: shows [As 2c] (a straight flush, Deuce to Six)
yonny vivas collected 4540 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4540 | Rake 0
Board [4c 3c 5c 6c Qc]
Seat 1: Rotmilan72 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: JokerAce68 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: schmidti1956 (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 4: annie_22at90 (big blind) showed [As 2c] and lost with a straight flush, Deuce to Six
Seat 5: wetmoose 613 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Yarko111 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: 007 OLDMAN folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: yonny vivas showed [7c 8c] and won (4540) with a straight flush, Four to Eight
Seat 9: Tasha4133 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


I was hoping he was holding the Ac.


"Luck! There is such a thing, and I know that there is, because it comes in two kinds. Good and bad." --- Nick "The Greek" Dandolos (1883-1966) U.S. card player.
 

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