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Big $2.20 - Flopped A Set in Position Against Two Big Stacks

 
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Big $2.20 - Flopped A Set in Position Against Two Big Stacks - Sat Jul 16, 2011, 11:04 PM
(#1)
TrustySam's Avatar
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So I've been trying lately to avoid all-ins that put my tournament life in jeopardy. And so it was going better today than yesterday - I watched how others at the table were managing to slowly build their stacks by controlling the pot, and tried to copy what they did, etc. But then this hand came up, and I bet thinking the two stacks in front of me if I bet enough would fold - no reads on either of the two because they just got moved to the table. And then one of the big stacks called, and then I raised again and they called, and then they rivered a flush and I got the boot - again!

Any ideas on how to best maximize my cash take for tourneys - just playing the odds hand-by-hand doesn't seem to be working. I had enough chips at this point to coast into the money and get my money back, but I chose to play this hand hoping to flop a set and maybe make more than just my money back. Too risky to play with so many big stacks? It seems to get harder to avoid them the longer the tourney drags on You think limiting play to shoving with the hopes of stealing by picking spots is the less risky way to go? I must be doing something wrong, because this keeps happening again and again - I come out of the gate like cat with its tail on fire , and then wind up all-in against a bigger stack a couple of hours in, and finish just out of the money.

(Maybe the raise on the turn was wasted chips if they were never going to fold?

Thanks so much everybody for the help!!




Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 11:09 PM..
 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 11:27 PM
(#2)
yahooza1's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
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ouch Trusty, very unlucky, i think i may have gone bust on that hand also though a check on the turn would have been better imo as there is a possible straight out there at that point and that tends to make me slow it up a little bit, i'm liking the strong re raise on the flop, gives you the opportunity to get them all in the middle on the turn(as well as isolating an opponent) providing it wasn't a scare card, unfortunately it was so i would have taken the free card hoping to hit my full house/quads and also seeing whether or not that diamond river was coming. i think then you could have gotten away from your hand reluctantly when your opponent most likely shoves the river.

How close to the bubble were you at this point? guessing that this is an MTT you are in it to win it, not just to min cash but however if you were like 5/10 places away from getting ITM i'm probably shutting my game down here all together till bubble bursts, still having a 35-45BB stack post bubble to make a few plays/attempted double ups/steals etc. etc.

I don't necessarily think your opponent played his hand badly either, i think you did just get a bit unlucky and like i said i think i'd have gone busto there too, possibly just shoved the flop, hope your set holds for you next time.

good luck
 
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Sat Jul 16, 2011, 11:59 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Thanks yahooza!

I think there were maybe still 300 or 400 to go - so with the 6000 I would have still had left by checking on the turn and folding on the river, I would have still had enough time to make it back with a couple of decent cards

I guess I got flustered or something, and by flustered I mean desperate I guess I can just chalk all this up to practice and lesson learned, and then next time it happens, hopefully I'll do things differently

Thx!!
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:08 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Very well played, imo.

Ship the turn 100%. You can't have 2/5 of a PSB behind and consider folding with a set. If there's a potential straight out there, it's more likely there's a straight draw out there, so betting is by far more likely to be pricing out the draw, not getting your money in with the worst of it.
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:17 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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Yes, this was very well played by you...

Pre-flop, with the stacks sizes what they are, a min raise utg is pretty cheap for you. With 2 big stacks in, even lacking reads your hand is the kind you aren;t getting married to if you do not flop a set, and if you do those guys could pay you off well. So I like the flat in to set mine, well done.

When you bink the set, and the open raiser fires and gets called, I really like the fact you do not try to get "cute" with your hand. Panicky does have a point though, betting as you did on the flop means you are "locking yourself" or the rest of your chips on the turn. Unlike Panicky's assessment though, I do not see that you "must" get 'em all in on this flop beause the board is relatively dry for you. As long as you know you are going no matter what turns, your bet is quite nie and may get you paid off more often than a shove.

Turn does throw a possible straight out there, but true to your flop bet, you do go ahead and launch. That was very good really, because the only hand that crushes you either is an over-set (oh well if that's there, gh to villain!), or exactly 2 hands that makes a straight, and neither are really like to have called a UTG raise. There are now a lot of lesser hands that can call you, and with only 1 card to fade, there is absolutely no reason NOT to fire as you did. Well done.

You got exactly what you wanted, a lesser hand without a ton of outs called you. He did catch his diamond though, but the results do not matter...

As long as you keep making very solid betting decisions in similar situations, you'll win these far more than you lose 'em.

Well done.

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 01:21 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:18 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
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ooops!

Sorry Panicky...I thought you had written ship the flop.

I agree with you 100% here, this was well played by the Hero.
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:19 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by yahooza1 View Post
I don't necessarily think your opponent played his hand badly either
This is debatable. I lean towards thinking his call of the flop 3bet was spewy. What is he ahead of? It's certainly hard to fold TPGK when you play a hand like KQo, but the board is pretty dry. I can't see a single hand worse than his making this 3bet under typical circumstances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I guess I got flustered or something, and by flustered I mean desperate I guess I can just chalk all this up to practice and lesson learned, and then next time it happens, hopefully I'll do things differently
I can see this play making you a great deal of chips long-term, not losing them. If you really think that this play was not profitable, then ditch it for sure and find a better play for next time. But remember that there's a big difference between being +EV and winning every time.
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:23 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post


I can see this play making you a great deal of chips long-term, not losing them. If you really think that this play was not profitable, then ditch it for sure and find a better play for next time. But remember that there's a big difference between being +EV and winning every time.
+1 to this for sure.

Trusty, this is HOW you play a flopped set for sure. Do not worry about this at all. If you had held 30 or 35k chips, MAYBE you can think about not going bust-o, but on your stack you did everything right. The long term will show you a nice profit form this type of play.
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 02:49 AM
(#9)
Hen-Golden's Avatar
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Man stop complaining about bad beats, specially when you're making the correct plays The good luck will start coming soon.

I think the pot-comitting flop raise is okay, unless you're planning to fold, which you're obviously not. It makes him fold less hands, so very well played.
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 03:09 AM
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I just wasn't sure the people who do well in a lot of tournaments factor in the manoevering around the table, with the wide stack differentials, and the wide styles of play, rather than limiting their tactical considerations to strictly the math of the hand.

I guess that goes to the root of the debate you and Dan were having with everybody else in the General Forum?

I guess one alternative might have been to just tighten up until those remaining 300 people busted out, because I was in the middle of the pack of the standings at that point, so there wasn't any benefit to taking the risk NOW rather than later?

Maybe that's just something I need to try out for size - maybe I'll just leave the set play for the cash tables or something for now, unless I can go head to head against a smaller stack, or have reads to know that somebody will fold. I'll have to see, because this doesn't seem to just be a case of variance.

Thanks so much for the help everybody
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 03:25 AM
(#11)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I guess one alternative might have been to just tighten up until those remaining 300 people busted out, because I was in the middle of the pack of the standings at that point, so there wasn't any benefit to taking the risk NOW rather than later?
If you tighten up now, you are significantly increasing your chances of mincashing, but severely stunting your potential to get anything more than that. Even if you're in stack protection mode, giving up this hand at any point (except perhaps preflop, but that's a stretch imo) is pretty ridiculous. You have close to the nuts on a short enough stack compared to the pot to try and pick it up, regardless of how little you might like all-ins. You're only afraid of a very small amount of hands, and you're crushing everything else. If there's ever a time to get money in the pot, it's in a hand like this.

The idea that winning tournament players do so by winning small pots is a pretty accurate one. Winning small pots by targeting weak spots in the table to constantly steal pots, and playing exceeding well postflop when one can't steal preflop are two very big aspects of professional tournament poker. However, I don't think there are any high-level pros that won't get all their money in the middle in a high-risk situation when they know that they're ahead. Big pots happen sometimes; you need to be able to accept that your results will have variance, because variance plays a bigger role in tournament poker than in any other variant of the game.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 03:28 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 03:38 AM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
If you tighten up now, you are significantly increasing your chances of mincashing, but severely stunting your potential to get anything more than that. Even if you're in stack protection mode, giving up this hand at any point (except perhaps preflop, but that's a stretch imo) is pretty ridiculous. You have close to the nuts on a short enough stack compared to the pot to try and pick it up, regardless of how little you might like all-ins. You're only afraid of a very small amount of hands, and you're crushing everything else. If there's ever a time to get money in the pot, it's in a hand like this.

The idea that winning tournament players do so by winning small pots is a pretty accurate one. Winning small pots by targeting weak spots in the table to constantly steal pots, and playing exceeding well postflop when one can't steal preflop are two very big aspects of professional tournament poker. However, I don't think there are any high-level pros that won't get all their money in the middle in a high-risk situation when they know that they're ahead. Big pots happen sometimes; you need to be able to accept that your results will have variance, because variance plays a bigger role in tournament poker than in any other variant of the game.
Maybe I'm just going through a downswing or something - just had AA cracked by TT (full house versus 4 of a kind) ... big stack though. But people were pretty freaked out by that hand, so maybe it really is just variance.

I guess it's worth giving another try another day to see how it goes - maybe 3rd time'll be the charm hopefully

Okay, thanks Panicky - ya, I guess I shouldn't let the downswing make me doubt the fundamentals, or else things'll probably end up worse - yikes!!!

EDIT: On the the other hand ... it wasn't 'fear' though - I don't worry about busting out. I was just questioning the profit maximization strategy of it - like if there's anybody who finds it more profitable if they're middle of the pack, and only a couple of hundred away from the bubble, who just treads water and conserves their energy for a late-game push. I see this happening all the time in PSO - people who don't play, get down to a short stack and double up 3, 4, 5 times and then catch up to the rest of the pack. Or even with people who start tournaments late and short-stacked who just look for a point to shove and double up or bust who catch up to the pack with one hand. That was the idea behind my question I guess.

Maybe this is more of the Sandtrap WSOP Seniors Tour debate? Fold and pick a later spot sort of a deal ...

I don't know ... will have to keep playing and trying things out for size I guess. But I might be a little tilted from losing so many 95% favorites on the river

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 03:57 AM..
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 01:26 PM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Maybe this is more of the Sandtrap WSOP Seniors Tour debate? Fold and pick a later spot sort of a deal ...

I don't know ... will have to keep playing and trying things out for size I guess. But I might be a little tilted from losing so many 95% favorites on the river
This has some similarities to that debate. If I sort of read between the lines of your text above where you're almost putting
Quote:
Fold and pick a later spot
and
Quote:
95% favorites
in the same sentence, it sort of looks like you're considering folding your 95% favourites to 'pick a better spot'. I really don't know what to say to that, because I've been lashed at before for calling that sort of consideration ridiculous. But there are times and places where picking better spots is correct, and doing it when getting your money in is profitable isn't one.

If this is just a tilt issue, then go ahead and work on that. I hear there are some great books on dealing with that. But if this is a reasoning issue, all I can say is think about it for awhile. Just take awhile and think about when you should put your money in the middle and why.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 01:28 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 17, 2011, 05:09 PM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

If this is just a tilt issue, then go ahead and work on that. I hear there are some great books
Hey now ... well I'll elaborate on the extent of my tilt. So AA versus TT, I 4-bet shoved all-in to the big stack, and the flop came A3T ... then the turn and river came giving A3TQT. And the table went nuts in chat with "holy ****", "no way", "sick". And my response was: "typical"

In other words, Sammy's ALL about winning, so I'll always be playing the math. I guess if I were to boil my thoughts down to one key concept, the quote I'd have picked out from my prior post to encapsulate that concept would have been, "conserves their energy for a late-game push." Like I was never suggesting throwing away a 95% favorite - how I envisioned conserving energy for a late game push (and by that I guess I really mean my stack) with the 55 hand might have instead been to:

(1) Avoid a multi-way pot with TWO monster stacks who could buy and sell me a couple of times over - because I had no reads on them, and even if they were straight-shooters, the chances were that if they connected I was going to have little fold equity.

(2) Play 55 hoping to flop a set, but be prepared for the fact that I'd have to play the hand out all the way to the river to make sure it was good, because of the lack of fold equity.

(3) Just fold 55 and instead look to maintain my stack by targeting the shorter stacks to my left and right when we're in the blinds if the big stack to my far right ever gave me that chance.

(4) Hope for a table change.

(5) Wait for a monster in late position.


On the tilt issue, lucky for me after I told everybody about my bad run, they'd all gone through the same thing, and were suggesting I just take a couple of days off to recalibrate, etc. So that's what I'm going to do

But I've done okay with a couple of really low stakes tourneys with lots of participants - finished 2/1985 (10cent), 4/1169 (25cent), 1st out of 500 something in old PSO. I actually didn't play for an entire hour of the PSO tourney in-between securing a decent-sized stack mid-way through the tournament, and waiting for the bubble to burst. So my idea isn't just coming to me out of thin air ... some if it's inspired based on what's worked for me in the past.

Like it's maybe the concept of 'stack protection' ... with tournaments being more like marathons than a series of sprints, perhaps?

Happy Sunday Panicky - always appreciate your thoughts!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 05:11 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 11:20 AM
(#15)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
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y are u betting so much on the flop on such a dry board? im probably only raising to 3600 to give my opps. a lower price to see a turn. if ur not worried about a straight, then there aren't many bad turn cards. the turn can bring out a lot of draws, but isn't completing a lot of hands. then, u can bet 6000 or so on the turn. this isn't ideal, but it leaves u with some chips on the river in case ur opp. hits a miracle, as he did.

see, the flop bet basically "forces" u to shove on the turn. seeing what ur opp had, u gave urself the opportunity to win the most chips, as ur opp had to hit a diamond on the river. i think u were far enough from the bubble that this was the right move, especially if ur goal was more than to just min cash. i think u took a rather aggressive line, but u did have a really strong hand and were against two opps. on the flop instead of one.
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 11:27 AM
(#16)
ketchup143's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
But I've done okay with a couple of really low stakes tourneys with lots of participants - finished 2/1985 (10cent), 4/1169 (25cent), 1st out of 500 something in old PSO. I actually didn't play for an entire hour of the PSO tourney in-between securing a decent-sized stack mid-way through the tournament, and waiting for the bubble to burst. So my idea isn't just coming to me out of thin air ... some if it's inspired based on what's worked for me in the past.
i use to have trouble cashing in 10 cent tourneys...i would be 15 or so spots from the money, and have a stack of about 8-11 bbs. i'd pick up KQs, AK, or JJ. sometimes i would shove, sometimes i would take a cheap flop and then shove, but no matter, i would lose to hands like A-baby suited, or even JTo. these would be monster stacks who had just sat down at my table who were playing every hand like AA. i would get so angry. one reason for my struggle was that i would always be right around 10 bbs right before the bubble burst. this wouldn't leave me a big enough stack to play effective post-flop poker. i guess ur strategy is different in that u force the issue sooner so that u will have a nice healthy stack later to bully the small stacks and pick up even more chips. i tend to prefer this, and i have made the necessary adjustments to my game.
 
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Mon Jul 18, 2011, 09:23 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Hey ketchup

Interesting comments - so funny that you were working on trying to take more risks, because I've been working on trying to tone it down and be more like you

Not sure what exactly it was that I did to get so far those two times ... I guess for the most part, I'm doing what you see here - pushing the bounds of what's prudent to play by calling a raise with 55 with 2 monster stacks already in the pot, thinking if I raise big enough on the turn, (since the first big stack didn't make a big raise and the second big stack only called) then everybody would fold - only to have things spiral completely out of control when somebody called, leaving me nervous wreck by the river. When the odds don't hold up, I go bust and am left wondering where I went wrong, and then when they do hold up, I'm left with a massive stack ... until I go blow it on another reckless play that didn't go quite the way I thought it would

That's a cool alternative to chasing people out of the pot - to bet to keep people in. I suppose the downside might be that it might be like letting people draw out - but in this case, I guess no matter what I bet, the big stack was willing to stay in, so it's kind of a nice compromise between betting for value, but still leaving yourself an out.

I misread what was happening with the other players, thinking the raise I made would get a fold. But the person who called - I wonder if maybe they just called because there were so many of us in the pot, and maybe they thought top pr with only second best kicker might be vulnerable and wanted to pot control with that other big stack still in the pot? I guess a third alternative might have been to make the 3bet a wee bit more, say around 4500-5000 - enough to get people to fold if they all missed, but not so much that I couldn't re-evaluate on the turn and river like you said?

But yeah, I guess that's one nice thing about big stacks is that there's more of a cushion for screwing up, and then yeah the ability to play more post-flop and stuff - I guess my problem is that the risks I'm taking to get those stacks, I still take when I've got the stack, and then most of the time I'm not able to keep it - I had a hand yesterday, omg ... LOL ... I was just really lucky to min-cash and make my money back. Just a really colossal fail of a hand. Hard to find that happy medium of taking risks or pulling back, and getting the times just right I guess ... work in progress

Hopefully poker gets legalized in the US soon and it'll be like old times again - fingers crossed for that to happen soon! Cool some of you have still stuck around to look over hands and stuff - much appreciated!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Jul 18, 2011 at 09:26 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 06:59 PM
(#18)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
That boys and girls, is how ya do that! Well played. If every time you lose it's to a suckout, you're getting it in good enough.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 08:19 PM
(#19)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
Another bad beat story yayy

anyways if anything i thoguht your raise on the flop was wayyyy too big so you could definantly work on bet sizing but apart from that unlucky beat.......
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 08:32 PM
(#20)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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For some reason, people who see in this thread merely a 'bad beat' are ignoring the discussion on stack management??

It's a poker concept - try googling it!
 

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