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Come on is this for real?

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Come on is this for real? - Tue Jul 19, 2011, 02:17 PM
(#1)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
after waiting for a long time.. got KK .. shoved result as always. the damn big stack calls and i get busted.. im starting to doubt the credibility of the software.. its like almost everytime.. he gets all the cards he needs to bust me.. i dont understand.. damn it! This is not good.. !

When the flop came i knew it what he had and the by the turn i was sure had 4.. i just knew .. this is damn bad!

 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 02:43 PM
(#2)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Understandably frustrating, however has nothing to do with the software.

The consequence of having to play safe in the PSO is having to do the short-stack shove. The massive stack at the table called down at 2 to 1, thereby giving the BB almost a juicy 5 to 1 call. Kings are obviously strong, but you definitely don't want multi-way action with them.

Wish I could see the BB's hand after all is said and done. Even if he had some random ace-rag style hand like Ac8h , you're equity line with kings would drop to about 57% in this threeway battle.

Last edited by Da Sens Fan; Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 02:49 PM..
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 05:13 PM
(#3)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
COME ON IS THIS FOR REAL
DO YOU NOT KNOW WHAT FORUM TO POST THIS ??
BAD BEATS IS THAT WAY---------------------->


 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 06:26 PM
(#4)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
COME ON IS THIS FOR REAL
DO YOU NOT KNOW WHAT FORUM TO POST THIS ??
BAD BEATS IS THAT WAY---------------------->



There's no way that is a poker bad beat. If that were the case, the bad beat section would be flooded with standard beats from donks who don't know their basics....

errrrrr ...... nm .....

 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 06:48 PM
(#5)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Sens Fan View Post
There's no way that is a poker bad beat. If that were the case, the bad beat section would be flooded with standard beats from donks who don't know their basics....

errrrrr ...... nm .....

Thanks .. that will do it!
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:23 AM
(#6)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49



http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=149178

you still call me donk who doesnt know the basics?

Last edited by godofcricket; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 02:51 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:44 AM
(#7)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofcricket View Post


you still call me donk who doesnt know the basics?

lol that wasn't a stab at you in any way. I was mocking some of the people that post in that bad beat forum, complaining about coin flips like it was some massive bad beat.

Sorry if that comment looked like it was directed at you , was not my intention at all.

Last edited by Da Sens Fan; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 02:52 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:54 AM
(#8)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
It sounded like that
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:59 AM
(#9)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofcricket View Post
It sounded like that
Hey you could still be one of them, I havn't checked that area in awhile
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 06:33 AM
(#10)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
If nobody folded, your odds of winning the hand are less than 3 in 10. When your kings win, somebody probably folded a hand that would have beaten you at showdown.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 11:19 AM
(#11)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
The hand with the pocket kings was the proper play. The problem was your stake was so small that the initial call offered the table leader too much incentive. For less than 6% of his stake, he can eliminate a player. He has a flush draw pre flop and post flop, which he caught. He also had an open ended straight-flush. I would push that hand too.

Same thing with the trip threes. You made the right play. So did the player with the pocket jacks. I'm guessing he figured you caught the high pair and pushed. He got the third and you lost. It happens.

I've said it many times, but it bears repeating. Human nature has us remembering hands like this since we anticipated a victory. We do not recall the times we did this to others, or when the hand that should have won, does.

Just remember this fact. Pocket aces win 85% of the times if you are one-on-on. Then remind yourself that this statistic can be reversed. Pocket aces lose 15% of the times if you are one-on-one. The first statistic we all fixate on, but we ignore the other. In simpler terms, no hand is ever guaranteed until the river is exposed.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 12:09 PM
(#12)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cairn Destop View Post
.......
I've said it many times, but it bears repeating. Human nature has us remembering hands like this since we anticipated a victory. We do not recall the times we did this to others, or when the hand that should have won, does.

Just remember this fact. Pocket aces win 85% of the times if you are one-on-on. Then remind yourself that this statistic can be reversed. Pocket aces lose 15% of the times if you are one-on-one. The first statistic we all fixate on, but we ignore the other. In simpler terms, no hand is ever guaranteed until the river is exposed.
+85
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 01:08 PM
(#13)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cairn Destop View Post
In simpler terms, no hand is ever guaranteed until the river is exposed.
Then how can you play poker aggressively?
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:28 PM
(#14)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
A fair question.

You play based on the odds for the cards exposed. To use your examples, the move all-in pre flop with pocket kings is the correct call. There are just four cards better, which means the odds at that point, are favorable. Those odds became less favorable with the flop, and disappeared with the turn. With the threes, they were worth seeing the flop, but they are not a strong hand.

If the person with pocket jacks wagered heavy, say 5-times the BB, would you have stayed, pre flop, with pocket threes? I'm thinking not. Post flop, the odds shifted to your favor, but there were still two outs for your opponent. That gives you an 86% chance of winning. It leaves you a 14% chance of losing too. Your opponent hits on the turn, you now have one out, he has the 93% chances of success. He did. Bet the guy couldn't recall that hand since he expected to win after the turn, but he would be posting if you hit your one-out.


When the odds are that favorable, an aggressive player must push. I would have done the same as you did in both cases. The difference between us is that I can see the reverse odds, will curse out the RNG, and move onto the next game or hand. If the aggressive play wins, say there was no flush, or the third jack didn't appear, you would be thinking you made the right move, and you did. In such a case, you didn't beat the odds, the odds beat your opponent.

However, as you saw, the odds can be beaten. It happened to you - twice, and you're thinking is that such things "always happens" when it isn't true. So now let me issue you a challenge. Keep a record of your hand results, but only for those hands that go to the showdown. Have three columns.

1 --- The river did not affect the outcome. If you are winning on the turn, and win, make a tick mark here. If you are losing on the turn, and lose, make a tick mark here.

2 --- The river changed a winner into a looser. If you have your opponent beaten on the turn, and the river kills you, make a tick mark here.

3 --- The river changed a looser into a winner. If you were on the short side of the hand after the turn, but then the river gave you the victory, make a tick mark here.


I did this for twenty games, which covered three hundred hands going to showdown. I had twenty-five tick marks under column 2. I had eighteen tick marks under column 3. I'll bet your results will be close to the same percentage.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:43 PM
(#15)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
@cairn:
I know these things can happen when you consider the mathematics.. but it seems it always happens with me!
I mean each and every game! Thats why i used "always" or at least mostly which is very frustrating after waiting for so long to get good hand and this happen always(i mean almost always). I think im cursed.. so unlucky!

The very next pso...!
now what would you say about this?
The moment Q showed up on the river i knew what he had!
again me not knowing the basics!


wait for the new ones... plenty to follow..

Last edited by godofcricket; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 03:00 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 03:03 PM
(#16)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Had it happen to me many times. Now, let's see the reverse side. Show us a hand you were losing big time at the turn and got that one-out, two-out, or three-out win on the river.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 03:40 PM
(#17)
KOingDonks's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 322
god of cricket poker isnt a game for u son, stick to playing cricket, what were u doing going all in there with one limper and players behind u to act? I fold those hands this month knowing we have all sorts of players and big stacks behind me, im no pro just common sence. GL
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 03:49 PM
(#18)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
The reverse also happens but so rare.. thats what bugs me.. if it were even i would have no problem.. but its like for 10 such losses u get one win .. does it matter really that one win?

Koing: man look at my stack its just <2bb and with a hand like that what u suggest fold? And all those donk big stacks yet to call i thought i had a good chance of doublin or even tripling up.. and i wouldnt have felt sad if i missed completely but the way the board played out made me feel very bad .. thats all!

And if im not at all good at poker then a rank of 223/100000 suggest what? the whole league is a waste? Those ranking doesnt worth a penny? come on man i thought at least im an average player ! And im here to improve my game and learn more about it!

Last edited by godofcricket; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 04:07 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 09:28 PM
(#19)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofcricket View Post
The reverse also happens but so rare.. thats what bugs me.. if it were even i would have no problem.. but its like for 10 such losses u get one win .. does it matter really that one win?



Is that fact, or gut? I had the same thoughts too until I took that sample pool. Yeah, I won a few and lost a few. However, in most of my hands I found the river didn't affect the outcome. You saw my numbers for those 400 showdown hands, time to get yours.

No, the old hedgehog is not hassling you. I've been in that kind of funk. For some inexplicable reason, the winners-turned-to-looser river comes in bunches. I can remember a streak of six straight times where I went down in flames. Made me anticipate the ace coming in the community whenever I had pocket kings. Worse yet, my best looser-to-winner streak never exceeded one.

If your play is putting you in the 98 percentile, then I sure hope you are active. If not, get those 20 VPPS now. You should be making it into the Premier League with that kind of record. Based on the expectations, the quality of play should improve. These incidents of lucky cards should be minimal. So stop looking at the forest and concentrate on each tree.

I'm going to be the ultimate politician by agreeing with you and KOingDonks. The safer course was folding. However, we all have been taught to punish such fools whenever we get those good hands. Your objective of doubling, or tripling, while crushing these shovemonkeys was the right thing. Random chance screwed you. Try to remember the old investor's axium: the greater the reward, the greater the risks.

Now the big question: How are you going to handle it? You're in a great spot to grab that brass ring. You pulling out now in a snit? Poker is a game that can become an emotional rollercoaster even at the best of times. Learn to accept both the peaks and the vallies, you'll come out the stronger.
 
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Thu Jul 21, 2011, 02:32 AM
(#20)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
next pso..



im allin actually..
wait for the next one..

Last edited by godofcricket; Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 02:34 AM..
 

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