Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

I got a lot of questions from the rail on this hand

 
Old
Default
I got a lot of questions from the rail on this hand - Tue Jul 19, 2011, 04:55 PM
(#1)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
This was 15 hrs into a deep stack tournament. There was I think $250 between 4th and 3rd. The stacks are way deep and I'm trying to make a big pot hand. I nearly got there.

So I'll answer the obvious:

Why call preflop? Easy, to catch a big hand and double thru the chip leader who has been hyperaggressive postflop with any pair...he'll call me down with middle pair and I know that going in.

Why bet the flop? I flop an Open Ended Straight Flush draw. I'm only a slight underdog if my opponent flopped a set. He'll raise with TPTK or any top pair hand and I expect he'll call any other pair or any draw. I'm the favorite against all of that. Indeed he does raise, so I figure him for Top/Top an overpair to the board or he flopped a set. I call the raise because I'm still an equity favorite in the hand...his raise size tells me he has a hand that's vulnerable to the draw and he wants to take it down now....I know he's NEVER folding if he has any made hand, so coming over the top is only going to ensure that I see both cards for my stack. He didn't get stats of 34/26 with an AF of 3.9 by folding alot.

I can afford to lose a huge pot and still retain a playable stack. Blinds go up every 30 minutes.

I miss the turn. He makes a bet about 2/3 pot. Clearly he has me on the draw and wants me to fold. and I should fold, I'm no longer a favorite, but the pot is GIGANTIC and it's been FIFTEEN HOURS! So, I call.

The river pairs my 5 and it gets checked down. I don't think he's ever folding to a river bluff, so I elected not to make one here. I lose the hand and have a stack of almost 40BB left.


Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 04:55 PM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Jul 19, 2011, 05:04 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
as played I see nothing wrong, I would maybe have jammed the straight flush draw though ... only other comment is possibly fold pre You are obviously very late in the tourney, so I dont have a problem with the weak call preflop, post flop I am not folding that ever... sometimes you just need to take a risk, and if you have a read on the villian as being spewy then its a good call
 
Old
Default
Tue Jul 19, 2011, 06:53 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think that you're plenty deep to play this hand for a minraise. I think that your call on the turn is fine if you're certain that you can donk lead big on the river and get called or raised. Given that your draws are quite transparent, and two them could easily lose you a big pot were you to complete (the flush draw and the top end of your straight draw), and given that you might already be against a made straight, I think you'd need a really special villain to continue for the turn barrel.

If you were in position, your implied odds would be so much better than they are here. Given that the board is actually pretty awful for you even with a combo draw, I think your reverse implied odds are big enough to make this a pretty safe fold on the turn, and a pretty dangerous call. I'm not a final table expert though, so hopefully we can get some more people to chime in here.

Edit: After thinkng about it more, I prefer controlling the pot by check/calling the flop if you think that you can get paid off easily by a worse hand if you make it on the turn. As played, you built a big pot and lost about 2/5 of your stack on a draw, and given the pay jump factor, I think that playing this slow has way bigger merit than playing it fast, since you stand to lose the minimum but gain the maximum that way, and if you play this fast, you're sort of accepting that you're barely a favourite to win vs. a player who doesn't fold and can stack you here and now. I think the optimal play against someone without a fold button is check/call flop, check/fold turn.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 07:26 PM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Jul 19, 2011, 08:04 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
Preflop is fine and its way more effective later in tourneys,people tend to tighten up more so you can do exactly what you intended to. You can put them on a big pair or AQ+ or sometimes mid pair.
Mid pairs tend to raise more if they are up against a agressive table.

Flop: This is for me a check/call as a way to pot control against a agressive player.
Donk betting(JUst a term) is just costing you chips in the long run against guys like this.


Bet sizing I would scale back as well 75% of pot is a bit high on this board.
His raise tells you that he has something and doesnt want to lose to a flush draw.
AT,KT,TT and overpairs,maybe 7s or 8s to give them trips.


Turn: Is not helping you one bit and its a real safe card for him to see.
I think I would pull the plug at this point and look for a better spot.

River: I would check since nothing has helped you and even if he thinks you hit a straight he is not folding a top pair,overpair,two pair or trips. So its a good spot to just check.

.
So you have to decide here if you want to put a big amount into the pot and remember that people are a little burnt out after that many hours.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 01:46 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,791
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I agree with the others. Like the way you played it.

Suited connectors is a great hand to play at this point in the tourney and can be a great way to disguise a hand. Too bad the spade didn't hit for you.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 01:57 AM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I agree with the others. Like the way you played it.
I don't think Cookies or I like how he played it.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:03 AM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,791
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I don't think Cookies or I like how he played it.
I meant preflop.. sry.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 09:07 AM
(#8)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I don't think Cookies or I like how he played it.
If this was a cash game or an MTT with 20 bucks on top I'm folding the turn. I may have even jammed the flop. But, this isn't the scenario here.

If I hit this hand I have a commanding chip lead, 5 handed with one crippled. If I lose, I have a 40BB stack and time before the blinds go up. I ultimately finished 4th.

I donk bet the flop because he had a tendency to c-bet shove the flop if it was checked to him and I didn't want to face that decision. I figured he'll fold any Ace hand misses that aren't AK or AQ, so I have some fold equity there. He'll likely fold AJ, A9 etc...I had to make the bet on the flop menacing enough to try to prevent him from calling with a 99 hand with just the one overcard. His raise tells me that he has TPTK, a set or an overpair to the board, I'm getting paid if I'm right there and I make my hand.

I'm OOP so pot control is out of my hands, if he jammed the turn I'm folding, but he didnt.

He cut my drawing odds, but, he didn't put my stack at risk and he didn't put me to a decision where I'd be crippled if I made a mistake. We'd played 300+ hands at this table and I know this guy will pay me off, especially if an offsuit 4 comes. He will call any bet on the river, period. If I stack him, he can't even post the ante in the next hand. Considering we're 5 handed, there is a greater chance that my draws are still in the deck.

I'm trying to win this tournament, I'm not playing to ladder up. Winning this hand puts me in great shape to get heads up. I'm not stacking off and I still have enough behind to play.

It just didnt work out.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 04:06 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think you could have easily gained a commanding chiplead without putting almost half your stack at risk. Had you played more conservatively, you would have likely finished at least 3rd, so folding here would have actually earned you money. If the guy will call down with any piece, than why not wait until you have the hand before you make the pot big? And if he will call down, are you being honest with yourself by saying you had fold equity?

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 04:10 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 04:51 PM
(#10)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
I took a substantial risk which was paled in comparison to the potential gain. I was a favorite to win the hand with 2 cards to come and I needed to see both cards to realize that equity advantage. The decision I made on the flop was to see both cards unless my stack was at risk. My opponent was generous to afford me that opproitunity I'm not going to sit and wait for Aces. I have a hand that is favored to win. I don't fold when I'm ahead. I had 40BB left when it was over, plenty of chips to play effectively. I wasn't trying to finish 3rd. I was trying to win the tournament. I have 15 outs going to the river. Shoving the flop, even if he calls, is +EV. I figured I could get to the end with a playable stack if I missed and I was correct. I don't know how many times I'll get to be in a hand at the final table where I have 15 outs to be handed the chip lead, so when I see one, I'm not folding it.

I had fold equity on the flop bet if he missed. He's not folding any made hand, but, I don't know that he has a made hand. when he raises the flop bet, I know within 5 hands exactly what he has. He has AT, AA, KK, QQ, or JJ. When he bet the turn, I figured him for AT. Again, I have 15 outs to an unbeatable hand. This decision has nothing to do with odds. It has everything to do with winning this tournament.

I can't be counterfeited if I make my hand unless he has EXACTLY AsTs AND I hit a spade that doesn't make my straight flush.

It can be argued that I didn't win that hand and therefore didn't win the tournament. Those two points don't correlate. I had a 40BB stack with 5 players left, I've won more than one tournament where I got to the final table with a smaller stack than that.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 04:53 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 05:22 PM
(#11)
Deleted user
Why post this hand if you have your mind set?
I dont understand what you are looking for,if your willing to take the risk then we have nothing to talk about do we.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 05:29 PM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSgtBakes View Post
Shoving the flop, even if he calls, is +EV.
This is the problem. You did not get all-in on the flop. You played the hand in a way that will probably lose long-term. You're correct in that you were a favourite (after seeing his hand, but I'll give that one to you), but you weren't even close on the turn, and the money was not in at that point. You have to make up your mind whether to play the hand fast (get all-in on the flop) or slow (wait for your hand to develop, and if it doesn't, fold it). I believe the optimal way would have been slow. You did not play it either fast or slow. I think that's a spew.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 05:49 PM
(#13)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
Why post this hand if you have your mind set?
I dont understand what you are looking for,if your willing to take the risk then we have nothing to talk about do we.
Somebody asked me to. And opposing viewpoints are good for the game.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:09 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 20, 2011, 06:04 PM
(#14)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
This is the problem. You did not get all-in on the flop. You played the hand in a way that will probably lose long-term. You're correct in that you were a favourite (after seeing his hand, but I'll give that one to you), but you weren't even close on the turn, and the money was not in at that point. You have to make up your mind whether to play the hand fast (get all-in on the flop) or slow (wait for your hand to develop, and if it doesn't, fold it). I believe the optimal way would have been slow. You did not play it either fast or slow. I think that's a spew.
If I were to play this hand this way in every situation, you'd be 100% correct.

This time, it was played to this situation, in this tournament, against this opponent. I proceeded with caution (I would have folded if my stack were at risk) because I wanted to get to the end while maintaining a playable stack should I miss. The risk was HUGE, but, the reward was greater. I made up my mind that as I'm a favorite with 2 cards to come, I need to see both cards. I can do that without risking my tournament if the villian doesn't put me to a committing decision and as I got there with 40BB behind, I wasn't committed. If I make the hand, the villian is goin broke. This wasn't a case of a long term trial, it was very specific to this situation. I hit that hand in the middle of a tournament, all the money is going in on the flop. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 06:08 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 24, 2011, 01:41 PM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
I find some of the suppositions here hard to swallow Bakes. That he will c-bet all in for 1.1m into 88K if you check. And that he will pay you off his entire stack if you get there. Maybe the 4, maybe even the flush, but if the 9 comes there's a 4 liner to the straight, it seems unlikely to me he's busting HIS tournament with 1 pair on a board like that. And of course he can also hold a J and bust you in that same spot. And also, I didn't see any mention of how he proceeds post when he's missed? Is he also raise/calling it off on the flop with AK high? Fold equity can't possibly be zero this deep, it seems like you've ruled out completely missed hands. Which leads me to believe there may have been some measure of wishful thinking going on.

I'm not as big a fan of the preflop call as the rest of PSO is. Playing raised pots out of position is way over rated imo. Especially vs. aggro guys. The depth of money helps, but I think this is still a leak on 71 bigs. The usual argument that gets made for these plays is if we miss we lose 2 bigs and easy fold, and if we hit we can win a big pot. That's a good argument for a small pair where we flop super strong or super weak, but not for suited connectors where we flop a lot of draws. Just what happened in this hand, it costs us a lot more than just 2 bigs to continue, and playing it well out of position is problematic.
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 24, 2011, 04:31 PM
(#16)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,422
Hello I didnt want it to seem like I was having a go at you..yet again lol..and I wasnt the first time

I am not qualified for hand analysis but please do not disregard what I say as im being honest and trying to help

1. I didnt know MTT lasted this long and must be very tiring but imho it doesnt matter if you had been there 15 weeks or 15 years lol sry exaggerating to make a point the time length you had been there has got nothing to do with your hand playing abilities...however I like that you played to win , with the best hand/equity/ and you still had a lot of chips if you got unlucky

2. playing in position would have been far easier

You can only do your best at the time and I think you did it was just cards did not cooperate - this time

I guess the real question is however was your play +EV in the long run and im not exacly sure how to calculate this yet - but with the huge implied odds here based on your notes/reads im thinking it must have been...so forget the last tounry and move on to the next(without tilt)

Also at least you are trying to find out if in fact you played this hand optimally so you will know in the future

rolo

Last edited by rolo834; Sun Jul 24, 2011 at 04:33 PM.. Reason: oops ive done it again I seem tomiss page 2so sorry if ive repeated anything already said
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 24, 2011, 08:04 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
My latest 'pet project' of study is that principle of 'stack management' ... just ignoring the cards for a minute, one thing that jumps out at me is how this one hand took your stack from 2nd to 4th.

More importantly, this one hand resulted in you (and another person) going from having 2/3 a stack of the chip leader and 2 times the stack of the short stacks, to the chip leader having a 4x edge over three of you. The three of you then become so easy to steal blinds from.

I like the idea of a calculated risk. But maybe it's important too to consider the resulting dynamic if the risk doesn't pay off? Not just in terms of whether you've still got a playable stack, but also in terms of how it'll empower the big stack and stuff?

I don't know ... I'm still learning. Would have been so cool if you hit your straight flush - darn


*******


PS Confessional time - sometimes I call down to the river when I have a straight flush draw, just because I want to try and hit it, even if it costs me chips (not at a final table or anything, mostly because I haven't been at very many final tables). Also, yesterday at the cash tables, I was purposely paying down to the river in spots, just so I could see what people were holding. So those were intentional leaks - I know they weren't optimal play, but sometimes when it's you that's the one playing, there can be other thoughts that go through a person's mind.

I guess for you msgtbakes, the allure of the call might have been the chance to take down the chip leader and become the chip leader yourself? I totally get the allure of that. In terms of getting ahead in the tournament though, I guess the better strategy might have been the 'tortoise' rather than the 'hare'? Like, attacking the smaller stacks so that they're compromised and forced to shove with lesser hands, which you can then use to pad your stack, etc? That's in theory - in practice, after fifteen hours can understand how the 'hare' might be awfully tempting

Congrats on this fantastic run!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jul 24, 2011 at 08:20 PM..
 
Old
Default
Mon Jul 25, 2011, 04:42 AM
(#18)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
aighyaah just fold next time pre from now on............

and i dont recomend donking that flop instead C/raising..............

When you do get reraised after donking i would highly recomend clicking it back and or shoving over the top you rep very good that way..........
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com