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25NL: KTs in BB, Flop Top Pair, Confusing Bet By Rock on BU

 
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25NL: KTs in BB, Flop Top Pair, Confusing Bet By Rock on BU - Tue Jul 19, 2011, 07:40 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Here's a fun spot I was in today. The minraise LAG had been getting in a lot of pots, as you can see from his (VPIP/PFR/3Bet/AF) stats. The rock had a Call Open % of about 3, which immediately registered when I saw him enter the pot. I called in the BB because KTs just plays so well and I hate to fold.

I checked the flop because I didn't think I could bet for value vs. either player. The LAG would probably just fold his unmade hands to a bet, since he can't be all that strong given how many pots he's in. The rock will also just call or raise better and fold worse. I checked to the raiser who decided to give up the lead, and then the rock decided to pick it up.

I don't have enough hands on the rock to know if he likes to steal in spots like these, but I had top pair, so I figured he might just shut down on the turn if he was trying to rob me. I did not really know where my money was going when I called, and I think that it might have been a bad call, EV-wise. The rock followed through with another bet on the turn, and I ended up making my play with a decent degree of confusion. Thoughts on how I played this hand and what I should have done on the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($9.90)
Minraise LAG (39/27/0/3.0) (CO) ($38.95)
Rock (13/10/0/inf) (Button) ($10)
SB ($13.16)
Panicky (BB) ($30.10)
UTG ($45.63)

Preflop: Panicky is BB with K, 10
2 folds, Minraise LAG (39/27/0) bets $0.50, Rock (13/10/0) calls $0.50, 1 fold, Panicky calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.60) K, 3, 6 (3 players)
Panicky checks, Minraise LAG (39/27/0) checks, Rock (13/10/0) bets $1, Panicky calls $1, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.60) A (2 players)
Panicky checks, Rock (13/10/0) bets $2, ???
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 08:10 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
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only thought I have is the rock was setmining... I always get crushed with hands like that
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 11:05 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
only thought I have is the rock was setmining... I always get crushed with hands like that
Ahhh ... I didn't even think of that - yeah, they get me every time! D'oh!
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 11:07 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I can say that by the time I decided my turn action, I hadn't even considered a set. I know that I should have, but what probably threw me off of that idea was the bet sizing. People usually pound the pot when they make a set.
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 11:16 PM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Roomik got it right?

Usually I'd just post this little guy ---> But I made a special visit to 'google images' as an ode to Roomik, since his pics always crack me up




I don't know what tells there might be - there seem to be all types on the tables - I've started to try color coding people who slow-play, bluff ... anything that's different from how things might appear. But half the time a set's not even on my radar, so that doesn't really help with that

Hopefully it'll come over time ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 11:26 PM..
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 11:48 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
The villain did not turn over a set.
 
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Tue Jul 19, 2011, 11:57 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
The villain did not turn over a set.
Oh - I thought you were saying that you missed the set in your last comment when you said you didn't even think of that, as if you failed to consider it and then rule it out

I don't think we're always supposed to know what people have, especially if they mask hands. Based on the info we have, if that's all you have, were you trying to tell us you ruled out AK because they didn't 3bet? So if it's not a set - either you're not giving us info like the fact that they play suited connectors in position like JQ, JT, 45, or else they bluffed on the flop and caught up on the turn, or had a K and ruled out that you had an A, or held a pocket pair. A VPIP of 13, I'm ruling out 2pr. Unless they slowplayed AA. If none of the above, then it's just a bluff - that happens too ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 12:20 AM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'm intentionally being vague because I don't want the results to bias anyone's evaluation of the hand. But yes, AK was not a hand I was considering.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:02 AM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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sounds like they're trying to rep AK with a lower pair, that probably didn't hit a set. At least, that's my cent and a half.. LOL
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:14 AM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
To share the secret outcome of this hand, I folded the turn. I'm still baffled though. A set makes some sense and can't be excluded from their range, but this just felt like KJ or KQ to me. I think I have to take AK out of their range, because this was a regular, supertight/aggressive player. You can't make money playing 12% of hands and only flatting the top of your range imo. This hand frustrates me.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 04:31 AM
(#11)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
I guess the fact that you view him as a rock suggests that he might not be capable of bluffing or semibluffing at all. If you think so the turn should be an easy fold. If he were a more sophisticated player who might barrel scarecards with draws or complete air calling might be reasonable.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 07:56 AM
(#12)
Hen-Golden's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 44
BronzeStar
Very well played imo (you folded the turn right?). I put villain on 99+, AJs+, AQo+ and KQs, which suggests us to fold the turn. He'll be betting the flop with 99-QQ but not the turn, most likely he's holding AJ-AQ here.

I like the check-call on the flop, basically b/c donking there shows weakness, with that line you're inducing people to float you and make you fold on later streets.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yep. Check/folded the turn. I think what frustrated me was that I don't like calling one street and folding another when my hand doesn't really weaken. The thing I did like was that I did manage to get some more info on this guy. That's always good to have against a reg.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 07:29 PM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
People usually pound the pot when they make a set.
You could ask the same thing about a pair of K's (with better kicker) though - KQ, wouldn't they want to try and push potential draws or Arags out of the pot?

That pounding the pot thing, maybe that's more of a beginners level thing that people do because so many of us won't realize that we're up against a set unless they really advertise the strength of their hand. And also, we try too hard to pressure people out of pots in which they're not likely to fold, like KhQh. Technically, wasn't the villain pricing out all the other hands except for like (if we assume that nobody's holding AA, KK or AK)?

eg. vs
Pot Equity: 75%/25%
Price to Call: $1 to win $3.60 back is 28%

eg2. vs (3 to a straight)
Pot Equity: 74%/27%
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 07:58 PM
(#15)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think it's because people who make top pair with a good kicker know that teir hand is basically a bluff-catcher/fish-net. They're usually only getting to play big pots with those hands and win if the villain is not very good, so winning small pots is fine. On the other hand, when you flop a set and a lock on the hand, why be cautious? Furthermore, when you flop a set, you need to get paid off for all of the times that you don't flop a set, and if you get 2/3x the pot in on for two streets of value heads-up, after rake, you're only going to make roughly seven times what you put in preflop when you're supposed to make upwards of fifteen if your opponent has a hand as well. People play sets more aggressively otherwise they won't get paid off.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 07:59 PM
(#16)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
But Panicky, here you're wondering why he didn't bet more so you would have known to fold.

So that cuts against you're assertion that betting more helps people get paid off more.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 08:17 PM
(#17)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I don't think he had a set. I'd love to know if that's what he had, though.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 08:32 PM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Well, I haven't made secret of the fact that I'm a total calling station, so I get to see what people have all the time. Take a look at this hand:



I get that all the time - people betting based on what they think I'll call, not based on the strength of their hand. That doesn't necessarily mean that's what's happening here, but I do think it's possible enough a good part of the time. JMO though - I could see somebody betting KQ or KJ like that too

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:35 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 06:21 AM
(#19)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
yeah dosn't help being OOP vs a short stack rock lol yeh your fold is good to me
gues cheack raising the flop wasnt an option??
either way u did fine
 

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