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Over/Under line on the Novermber 9!

View Poll Results: Who do you think will be the ME Winner of 2011?
Staszco (40.175 mil) 0 0%
O'Dea (33.925 mil) 12 38.71%
Gianetti (24.75 mil) 1 3.23%
Collins (23.875 mil) 4 12.90%
Lamb (20.875 mil) 11 35.48%
Bounahra (19.7 mil) 0 0%
Heinz (16.425 mil) 2 6.45%
Makievskyi (13.825 mil) 0 0%
Holden (12.375 mil) 1 3.23%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Over/Under line on the Novermber 9! - Wed Jul 20, 2011, 06:15 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Heinz:
Wildest player left, and seemingly prone to mistakes. Doesn't appear to be as situationally aware as some of the others, and will tend to lose track of his stack size and get into sticky predicaments.
Over/Under on his finish spot: 8

(BAH! I blew this one badly! I based my thinking on the fact that Heinz seemed to be the loosest and wildest player before the final table break occured, and that he would be un-able to rein in those tendencies when play resumed. Man was I wrong! Pius was the first player to shift out of "tight mode" at the start of the final table, but even though he failed twice with his aggression before binking a pretty nice win, neither loss was hugely damaging. Once he got that chip up, this guy has never looked back, and rarely put a foot wrong. He is playing flat AWESOMELY!)

Makievskyi:
Next wildest, and also with some potential for sticky situations. He appears to be a bit more likely to fold when facing strong paly back than Heinz though, and his small ball play may keep him somewhat out of trouble. He seemed to lock down a bit when he dropped some chips, so he does have the ability to change gears.
Over/Under on finish spot: 7

(nailed it! His lock down ways kept up until he started to see stack size issues, and had to make a stand. I really did not expect him to wait as long as he did to start making moves, but after he did wait, all it took was one mis-timed shove and he was gone.)

Holden:
Been in severe lock down mode to get to the final 9, and shortest stack now. May be a bit too tight if he seeks to jsut ladder climb to the 1 million pay days to go really deep, but based on earlier play he does seem to have some situational reading ability. Stack is quickly losing any value beyond a re-shove stack, so may become card dependant.
Over/Under on finish spot: 7

(I was actually away form the TV when Holden left, so there is nothing I can really say about his bust out. I an note that from what I saw of him, he didn;t really do anything that I was shocked by, based on what he showed approaching the final 9.)

Brounahra:
Playing tightly, and has been in the bottom third of the field most of the way at the last 10. Picked up a very timely double up (crippling Hewitt) with KK, but his 19 mil stack will not last overly long if he does not open things up a little bit.
Over/Under on finish spot: 6.5

(Ol' Bob did open up a bit more than at the final 10 table, but he simply did not have the chops to hang with some of the sharks here. That isn't a slap on him, afterall he did get to a nice payday. Realistically, Bob was the only guy at the table with almost 0% chance to win, but his nitty style made predicting his exactly bust spot hard...he pretty much lasted to where I guessed though.)

Gianetti:
Playing a very similar waiting game to Brounahra, but showed more pep (and solid situational reads) when he did have chips earlier on. I suspect he was severely card dead for a lot of the way to the final 10, and that pushed him down the chip ranks. Got 2 timely chip ups (both with JJ) to grow to the 3rd stack at 24.75 mil, but will have a ver tough row to hoe versus some of the real "sharks" here.
Over/Under on finish spot: 5.5

(didnt miss his bust spot by much, and Gianetti really REALLY impressed me. It took some Lamb luck to cripple him, albeit Lamb had every reason to jam A7s into Gianetti's JJ, I now am almost positive he was very card dead approaching 10 handed, and that was why he sat tight. After getting some working chips, Gianetti showed that he definately was one of the real sharks at this table)

Collins:
Rarely put a foot wrong on the march to the final 9, but prior to that there were a couple of missed opportunities. I think he has a solid image amongst the remaining 9, and is one of those with a solid chance to win, but of the "big dogs" left in, I think he chances are marginally the smallest.
Over/Under on finish spot: 4.5

(I gotta say, Phildo did not really impress me. That limpy/looky style can work well if you are catching hand, or if you are going to REP that you caught a big hand, but Collins did not seem to be willing to risk the chip loss a busted bluff shot on the flop might bring him. Sure, it doesnt help that the couple times him limped big aces he ran into even bigger hands, or ran into total airball flops, but all thru his time at the table, he seemed to let himself be too card dependant to really make his style work. I definately think he is capable of a better showing than his play here)

Lamb:
Would be my odds on favorite by a good margin if he had not gotten himself into a sticky spot versus Gianetti and dropped from 30 mil+ to around 20 mil. I cannot fault his play, since Gianetti's blinds were easy pickings and he had a squeeze situation, but the loss was very hurtful to Lamb's overall chances. I still think he has a very good chance though.
Over/Under on finish spot: 3.5

(Ben played great, and is still in it to win it. Sure, some may moan about his mis-steps late when he got in a couple times as a dog and sucked out, but all those plays were solidly reasoned and just happened to run into hands that could call. Lamb showed epic patience between 7 and 4 left, when it seemed almost all his aggro moves were getting snapped off, and he never once gave into the urge to re-shove without a hand that called for it. That kind of patience under building pressure to chip up is a rare skill all by itself)

O'Dea:
Rarely put a foot wrong, but did drop a few steal attempts to play back, so his image has taken somewhat of a hit at the table. The chips he lost to those tries (about 8mil or so total) are possibly the difference between him being the odds on favorite, and simply another good player strongly in the mix for the win. Fact is, with his ability to put smaller stacks to the test, and his HU experience (he finished 17th in the WSOP HU event in 09, and plays a lot of HU on line), if he is still there and close when it gets to 2, he may well become the favorite.
Over/Under on finish spot: 3

(another awesomely impressive player. He call of Lamb's Q8s shove holding just A9o when it meant all but 2BB of his stack was EPIC; the results just did not work out for him at all. Again, Lamb's play was entirely understandable, so just because he was behind you cannot say Ben "donk'ed" O'Dea in the hand, but the heart O'Dea showed in making the call would have been rewarded if karma worked instanieously. Too bad it doesn't and Ireland's hero deserved better)

Staszco:
The Czech is not messing around! He has been very selective in picking his spots, and was either getting totally hit by the deck (unlikely to be THAT much in his favor!), or he is simply very VERY good at finding the spots to fire. Either way, as the chip leader he has to rank high on this list anyway, but since no one gets that many cards, he probably is as good as it appears he is. Either way, the bracelet will be won by going through him.
Over/Under on finish spot: 2.5

(He is still there and still a force, even though he has the shortest stack. This guys proves that not all eastern euro players are crazy/wild!)

what do you guys think?

Last edited by JDean; Mon Nov 07, 2011 at 08:23 AM.. Reason: Edited for update after day 1 of FT play.
 
Old
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 02:10 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Any more late votes for this?

It is going to be coming soon!
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:30 AM
(#3)
coopster_001's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 13
BronzeStar
I''ll plump for O'Dea, he's from pretty good stock and has form.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 05:33 AM
(#4)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
Personally, this final table looks like it's going to be sooo tough. Matt Giannetti and Ben Lamb are my personal chioces. Ben Lamb has the experience, as he's been to the Final table 3 times in this year's WSOP, winning 1st in the $10K PLO Championship, 2nd in another PLO $3K entry, and 8th in $50K Players Championships, Ben is having a great year, and I for 1 will be cheering for him, not to join the bandwagon, but anyone running this good has to be a favorite.

Looking forward to everyones point of view on this. Thinking of looking for a good line to bet on Lamb for the Bracelet.

Stake.



Read more: November 9 - PokerSchoolOnline Forum http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz1bmhJ2of7
 
Old
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 05:47 AM
(#5)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
I wish they had a line on o/u @the lads. They have a good line if you want to take the longshots.

I took Giannetti 13/2 & Lamb 11/2. If anyone likes Bounahra or Makiievskyi they're both listed @ 10/1, 11/1 for Holden, 9/1 Heinz, Collins is at 7/1, and the 2 fav's Staszko & O'Dea @ 4/1 .

Last edited by Stakehorse75; Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 05:49 AM..
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 06:04 AM
(#6)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
I took Giannetti 13/2 & Lamb 11/2. If anyone likes Bounahra or Makiievskyi they're both listed @ 10/1, 11/1 for Holden, 9/1 Heinz, Collins is at 7/1, and the 2 fav's Staszko & O'Dea @ 4/1 .[/QUOTE]

Do you have a gambling problem? ( like the rest of us)

 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:12 AM
(#7)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
Well Chucky, I actually won on my 1st bet when Ben Crane took 1st in McGlardrey's Classsic, I took him when he was 12-1 took 1 other, Webb Simpson, cost of $5 each, paid out 65 so still got 6.5/1 on my total investment. And to tell you the truth, I like to do some research on who I'm picking, and the 2 I picked for November 9, Lamb, has had an excellent run this year in WSOP up til now, and Giannetti is a player I watched during the live airings that were showed, and I like the way he plays as well as the way he was on a constant upswing in chips when Hewitt was bumped out 10th, freezing everything.


Last edited by Stakehorse75; Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:14 AM.. Reason: spell error
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:20 AM
(#8)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Good Luck to you.
I haven't seen alot of these players other than Lamb.
I have noticed that Lamb will put them to the test. He seams to play their cards more than his own.
Hope you have a win
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 08:06 AM
(#9)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,024
(Community Coordinator)
Lamb, Gianetti......... it's too tough a table to pick a winner. What I am certain of is that it's going to be an epic final.

I'll be railing O'Dea......

Ship that bracelet back to

 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 10:07 AM
(#10)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
Lamb has so much going for him except stack size.

But I'm going with this guy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA&ob=av2e
...
Will be quite a loud FT me thinks.

...

Last edited by !!!111Dan; Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 02:38 PM.. Reason: ...
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 11:23 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
Collins is at 7/1
Wow this looks like a good value to me.

I would never take Staszko or O'Dea at 4-1, terrible value (they are good players but 4-1 odds is not good value). Lamb at 5.5-1 is marginally bad value. When you think about it, if everything else were equal, each player would have a 1 in 9 chance of winning (8-1 against). At odds of 4-1, the player would have to be more than twice as likely as anyone else to win to be a good value bet. No one is close to that at this table, the players are too strong and the stacks too close for that.

My personal favorites are Lamb, O'Dea, and USCphildo, but Staszko and Gianetti can't be overlooked. I think others have the least chance, but it's still anyone's game for sure.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 12:10 PM
(#12)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
It is a tough field but these are my observations and opinions:

My heart says O'Dea off course since I am Irish, and if he gets heads up he has a great chance, but I think he will maybe just stumble before that.

I like Gianetti, I once had a girlfriend with the same surname, but he needs big cards and I doubt he will get enough of them.

I rate Stazzco as the favourite but being left of Lamb is not a great position to be in. Although Lamb is a great player, there is just something about the guy that irks me, maybe his arrogance, so I am hoping more than anything that he does not win it. Collins is solid, but may just be found wanting at crucial moments. I cannot remember Makievskyi at all, so mainly on that point I cannot see him winning. The short stack is not afraid to get it in, and all Holden needs is one double up to be back in the wash. Brounahra is another one that gets on my goat, and even though it would be great to see an older player win, I would much prefer it were Staszco.

And that leaves me with the dark horse Heinz and I am going to go out on a limb and say that he will win it. It is not always the best player that wins the Main Event but I like his style and bravado. Having said that my putting him forward as my pick is the kiss of death so he will probably be first out

It should be a great final table and may the best man win.

Cheers,


TC
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 02:31 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Collins is solid, but may just be found wanting at crucial moments.
Collins will be interesting to watch. He is an absolute beast in online MTT's, but has yet to translate that to big success in live MTT's until this main event. I wonder if this will weigh on him at all when the final table fires back up? I suspect he'll handle it just fine, but you never really know until it happens.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:04 PM
(#14)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
I'm a fan of both Collin's and O'Dea. My pick would be those two with Lamb for the Final three.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 04:53 PM
(#15)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I admire Collins a lot and he is a good price as well.

What's your impression of O'Dea Dave? I remember his Father playing on "Late Night Poker" and he was extremely nitty. Some of the hands I saw O'Dea the Younger playing were very reminiscent of his Dad, but I think he has a few extra gears as well.

Incidentally, I expect a huge Irish contingent to be in attendance to cheer him on; i wish I was going

TC
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 04:59 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
I was very impressed with O'Dea, at least what we saw on t.v. He's got a legitimate shot at this for sure. I was most impressed with O'Dea, Lamb, and Collins, hence my picks.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 05:05 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
FYI, since I don't see it handy in the thread:


Seat 1: Matt Giannetti (Las Vegas, NV) – 24,750,000 in chips
Seat 2: Badih Bou-Nahra (Belize City, Belize) – 19,700,000 in chips
Seat 3: Eoghan O’Dea (Dublin, Ireland) – 33,925,000 in chips
Seat 4: Phil Collins (Las Vegas, NV) – 23,875,000 in chips
Seat 5: Anton Makiievskyi (Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine) – 13,825,000 in chips
Seat 6: Sam Holden (Sussex, UK) – 12,375,000 in chips
Seat 7: Pius Heinz (Cologne, Germany) – 16,425,000 in chips
Seat 8: Ben Lamb (Tulsa, OK) – 20,875,000 in chips
Seat 9: Martin Staszko (Trinec, Czech Republic) – 40,175,000 in chips
 
Old
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 05:10 PM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I rate Stazzco as the favourite but being left of Lamb is not a great position to be in.
Being to the left of Lamb is a good thing. Ben Lamb is the kind of guy that makes the life of the players he has position on miserable.

Looking at the seats, I think Giannetti has maybe the best draw, with position on Lamb and Staszko, and the Belize nit to his immediate left. Maybe Bou-Nahra will play some poker now that he made the November 9, but wow did he look nitty leading up to it.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:47 PM
(#19)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
I'm banking on O'Dea. Solid game...great pedigree. Hope to heck that Lamb goes out early. Far too arrogant for my liking. Seems like he is begging for a slap in the melon. A certain smugness to him.

Collins is interesting though, has many gears and fearless, as they all seem to be.

O'Dea...
May have something to do with my Irish bloodlines as well...

Dale
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:50 PM
(#20)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
I looked over the field, and Giannetti @ 13/2 or 6.5-1 I think is the best money for his stack, although I took Lamb 11/2 or 5.5-1 just because of his 3 FT finishes this year in WSOP(1st, 2nd, 8th) and even though he made a few small dumps of chips right before ME was frozen, I believe he still stands as a strong pick, being a top player.
 

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