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Outplayed or outlucked?

 
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Outplayed or outlucked? - Wed Jul 20, 2011, 12:14 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
So we're just nearing the break after the first hour of play in a $1.10 tourney I've been playing rather tight. I've have noticed a few loose guns mainly the 2 players to my direct left (hence me playing even tighter than usual) and the villain in this hand. So i wake up with AQs in the BB and villain raises me from late, i think its a pretty easy call as his range is pretty wide......

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I figure the C-bet on the flop is either just an attempt to get me off the pot if I've missed, or he's connected with a weak ace as from the hands I have seen he's over betting big hands that would've hit here such as AK A8 (or a set), When the turn comes and he shoves I am slightly worried about AJ but figure I'm ahead most of the time not for a second did trip 8's come to mind. To be perfectly honest i feel totally outplayed here I think the bet on the flop is one to see if I've hit and the shove is him knowing I've connected and am calling 9 times out of 10.

Have i been totally outplayed or am i just unlucky he hit his set when I hit pretty well as well?
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 01:18 PM
(#2)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
25BB middle stage of the tournament, most people are going broke there. I'd have gone broke sooner in the hand, but, result's the same.

You have the guy on a wide range, I'd have 3bet preflop. If he calls, you can narrow his range. If he reshoves, I'm not folding AQ and the race is on.

Having seen the flop, you have TP 2nd kicker and there's a club draw. I'd bet the flop. If he comes over the top, you can use your own judgement whether you call. If you feel that the guy would do that with any A or even with the draw, nothing wrong with going to the end. Nothing wrong with folding to the re-raise if you think the villian will only shove with the nuts. Top pair is a tough hand to fold. You're going to be good here more often than not.

I think you were trying to get to showdown, but, being OOP your opponent has control of the size of the pot. You had no intention of folding obviously, and in that case, you may as well shove your chips in fisrt and maybe garner a fold. Obviously here he's flopped a set and is never folding, but, you can't know that then.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 02:47 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Great advice straight up to the point, and LOADS of useful stuff to take from it. I think i should have 3-bet pre with me putting him on such a wide range and don't know why i didn't i think being OOP put me off, also checking the flop was a mistake it left me not really knowing were i stood. I think maybe i perhaps should have shoved pre when i still had fold equity.Played this hand pretty terrible really but already learned a lot from just reading through what you said, some great advice thanks
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 03:23 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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I'd have bet the flop. That way you're taking the lead in the betting, not letting your opponent do so (can also help with pot control). The turn makes for a scary board, as you have a flush draw, possible made straight or a set or 2 pair. With 18 BB left if you fold, I think you need to fold and find a better situation to get your chips into. There are too many viable combinations of cards that are well within their range, that you can't beat.
Personally, I'd have put them on Q 10 suited instead of a set since you said they were playing looser than normal, and if so, the best you'd be able to do is to chop the pot.
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 04:37 PM
(#5)
Hen-Golden's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 44
BronzeStar
I think the line you took is not bad, but I don't like that call on the flop, what about reshoving right there, specially on that board?, b/c check/calling is basically turning your cards face up. It's not like it would've changed the outcome of the hand either, no-one folds TP being 20bb deep, so there's nothing you could've done.

EDIT: If villain is stealing a lot, then not reshiping this preflop is bad to be honest, I thought I read that villain is tight.. But then again lol, it's not that it would've changed the outcome of the hand.

Last edited by Hen-Golden; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 04:41 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 05:34 PM
(#6)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Glad it helps...

It's easy to get wrapped around the axle about the result of a hand.
Nobody makes the right call 100% of the time. Nobody correctly decides to c-bet or check every flop. People flop sets against your made hands, it happens.

Why you played a hand is just as important as how you played it. The result of the showdown is meaningless so long as the decision you made on each street was sound at the time you made them. The math becomes easier with time and experience. Check out the videos in the archive, there's plenty of free advice there and trust me, it's all very profitable if you just do a little homework.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 05:46 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 20, 2011, 06:35 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Pre Flop:

Starting with 26BB I think you have enough of a hand to call this raise and take the flop here.
I like the fact you are suited, as that adds slight play-ability to your hand if the flop does come 3 way.
Of course being out of position is going to leave you somewhat card dependant here, but if you DO hit the flop, you'll likely have the best hand more often than not agaisnt a lot of ranges.

One thing I'd note though:

Did you consider raising pre-flop?

Had you moved it up to 650 or so, you may taken it down from decent players right here.
That amount would surely "hurt" a lot more to fold, but it is not a severely committing amount for your stack now (a bit under 25%).
Because it is very CLOSE to a committing amount though, it may express great "strength" to an opponent who is thinking about what you might hold.
Combining that with the fact you exert a large amount of FE versus his stack size, and against the "right" opponent, a re-raise might be beter than a flat here.

The idea is that even should YOU miss, by taking the betting lead away you can come out betting, and possibly get a flop fold, see?
If you think the villains are not very stack aware though, that bet may just serve to cost you more when you miss 2/3rds the time.
It is just a consideration for you to have...

Flop:

Your check back on this type of flop is pretty dangerous versus a "weak ace" player, and will often result in you denying yourself value if he has read you as calling of a solid range. The board also has a couple of potential draws versus a wide raising LP player in the form of clubs or QJ/JT type hands, and of course kicker spikes for a weak A player are always a possibility too...

Fact is, more often than not if you DO check into a read of a weak ace player, you are probably doing so to check/raise your top/second hit, not check/call.
You really do not want to flat and give him a shot to spike his kicker, or check and give him a chance to AVOID putting value in for you.

Turn:

I really do not like your 2nd check either, since if you checked the flop AND the turn then you feel you are WAY ahead, and are playing "tricky" to get him to jam.
Fact is though, that J is not a good card at all for your 1 pair hand, but picking up YOUR re-draw gives you some "hope" if he jams and you are behind.

Your turn action is pretty moot though, since you've put a bit above 1/3rd of your stack in prior to this, and it is going to be VERY hard to muck now: either you were "right" and ahead all along so you WANT to get 'em in, or you aren't ahead and at least you've gotten a few outs.

River:
Null point, as they were all in.

OVERALL:

I think if you had looked at your stack size, you'd have noticed that you lack post flop play in that stack. This negates a lot of the "passive" tricky type moves you COULD pull with deeper money, looking to extract max value from an exploitable opponent. As it stood, you found yourself deeply invested in this pot, and with a pretty ugly card peeling. Facing a turn shove, you needed to either fold a reasonably strong top pair/2nd kicker hand, or you needed to live and die on your decision. I think setting yourself up with eariler aggression may have led to you having a BETTER chance to win more often in this type of spot.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 09:31 AM
(#8)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
i was spewing when i saw u flat AQ suit like that OOP , just reshove right there you have a good stack size for it, and there is dead money there which is another + for reshipping......

playing pots OOP vs active players is always a horrible idea unless u feel u have an edge on that play and or feel are better then them.............

obviously reshipping wont change the result but it is definantly the optimal line here
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 12:14 PM
(#9)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
i was spewing when i saw u flat AQ suit like that OOP , just reshove right there you have a good stack size for it, and there is dead money there which is another + for reshipping......

playing pots OOP vs active players is always a horrible idea unless u feel u have an edge on that play and or feel are better then them.............

obviously reshipping wont change the result but it is definantly the optimal line here
ur gonna risk ur tourney to pick up 425 chips of dead money?
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 12:15 PM
(#10)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSgtBakes View Post
Glad it helps...

It's easy to get wrapped around the axle about the result of a hand.
Nobody makes the right call 100% of the time. Nobody correctly decides to c-bet or check every flop. People flop sets against your made hands, it happens.

Why you played a hand is just as important as how you played it. The result of the showdown is meaningless so long as the decision you made on each street was sound at the time you made them. The math becomes easier with time and experience. Check out the videos in the archive, there's plenty of free advice there and trust me, it's all very profitable if you just do a little homework.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 12:16 PM
(#11)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
he didn't flop trips...he flopped a set. the hand ranking is the same but using the wrong terminology can potentially change the proper analysis of a hand.

Last edited by ketchup143; Mon Jul 25, 2011 at 12:18 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 12:28 PM
(#12)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Pre Flop:

Starting with 26BB I think you have enough of a hand to call this raise and take the flop here.
I like the fact you are suited, as that adds slight play-ability to your hand if the flop does come 3 way.
Of course being out of position is going to leave you somewhat card dependant here, but if you DO hit the flop, you'll likely have the best hand more often than not agaisnt a lot of ranges.

One thing I'd note though:

Did you consider raising pre-flop?

Had you moved it up to 650 or so, you may taken it down from decent players right here.
That amount would surely "hurt" a lot more to fold, but it is not a severely committing amount for your stack now (a bit under 25%).
Because it is very CLOSE to a committing amount though, it may express great "strength" to an opponent who is thinking about what you might hold.
Combining that with the fact you exert a large amount of FE versus his stack size, and against the "right" opponent, a re-raise might be beter than a flat here.

The idea is that even should YOU miss, by taking the betting lead away you can come out betting, and possibly get a flop fold, see?
If you think the villains are not very stack aware though, that bet may just serve to cost you more when you miss 2/3rds the time.
It is just a consideration for you to have...

Flop:

Your check back on this type of flop is pretty dangerous versus a "weak ace" player, and will often result in you denying yourself value if he has read you as calling of a solid range. The board also has a couple of potential draws versus a wide raising LP player in the form of clubs or QJ/JT type hands, and of course kicker spikes for a weak A player are always a possibility too...

Fact is, more often than not if you DO check into a read of a weak ace player, you are probably doing so to check/raise your top/second hit, not check/call.
You really do not want to flat and give him a shot to spike his kicker, or check and give him a chance to AVOID putting value in for you.

Turn:

I really do not like your 2nd check either, since if you checked the flop AND the turn then you feel you are WAY ahead, and are playing "tricky" to get him to jam.
Fact is though, that J is not a good card at all for your 1 pair hand, but picking up YOUR re-draw gives you some "hope" if he jams and you are behind.

Your turn action is pretty moot though, since you've put a bit above 1/3rd of your stack in prior to this, and it is going to be VERY hard to muck now: either you were "right" and ahead all along so you WANT to get 'em in, or you aren't ahead and at least you've gotten a few outs.

River:
Null point, as they were all in.

OVERALL:

I think if you had looked at your stack size, you'd have noticed that you lack post flop play in that stack. This negates a lot of the "passive" tricky type moves you COULD pull with deeper money, looking to extract max value from an exploitable opponent. As it stood, you found yourself deeply invested in this pot, and with a pretty ugly card peeling. Facing a turn shove, you needed to either fold a reasonably strong top pair/2nd kicker hand, or you needed to live and die on your decision. I think setting yourself up with eariler aggression may have led to you having a BETTER chance to win more often in this type of spot.
i would never consider reraising preflop here. his opp. is too weak a player to ever fold, stack are not deep enough, and AQs is not a strong enough hand. in an online tourney, a 20-30 bb stack is going to be what u have in the vast majority of situations, unless the tourney is just underway or u r approaching the final table. therefore, i think there's still enough room to play postflop. i think the question is: what does the 500 bet on the flop mean? would this guy really be trying to get value out of Ax? i would have put him on either aces and eights, or aces and nines on the flop. if ur gonna check the flop, i don't mind the 500 chip call. however, it was imparative that u bet this flop to see where u were at. the turn shove is just too much to continue. there's just too much that beats u. AJ is a very real hand for ur opp. it's pretty hard to put him on AT for top pair and an open ender or a bare flush draw.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 12:38 PM
(#13)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
i will say that ur check-call on the flop set u up for disaster on the turn. ur starting stack was a little thin to play so passively, so by getting to the turn u are effectively telling ur opp. that u are planning on getting all ur chips in, so he knows he can get the maximum value by shoving instead of value betting small. more and more, i find players who are unwilling to fold the turn or river when their stacks are down to 15-20 bbs when they have a made hand. if ur gonna be passive, u have to be willing to do this. some will disagree with me and instead elect to pump-and-shove, but with blinds at 50/100 u still have enough time to come back if u fold.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 02:44 PM
(#14)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ketchup143 View Post
ur gonna risk ur tourney to pick up 425 chips of dead money?
His advice is pretty "new school", and is pretty common. Think about it...

If you are AHEAD, you are AHEAD...what does it matter if you have 1,000,000 at risk to win 2 or 500 at risk to win 1,000,000...you are AHEAD.

As for risking your tourney "life" for "just" 425 in chips, that really is quite a lot of chips for a 26BB stack, just under a 25% chip up. The poster here is saying that a lot of times these weak players are not gunna have a hand better than AQ (I tend to agree), and that if you give 'em a flop 26BB is really not "enough" to avoid being committed at some point anyway. "New School" says get 'em in if you think there is a good chance you are ahead, but cannot play a standard line post flop...

Me I'm more "old school", but I would still be in favor of a raise here with AQ, albeit one you COULD get away from, since a lot of times I find these weak jamokes will call that (giving you value), and release on the flop to a shove.
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 04:36 PM
(#15)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
did you pay attention to what i said? playing pots OOP IS a silly idea especially with a hand like AQ suited your crushing his opening range alot of the time so just reship.........youl get called by worse a ton garanteed......

so lets see options with the hand then for ketchup143 lol:

1. Flat call and take a flop OOP
2. 3 Bet and fold to a shove LOL
3. 3 Bet and C bet folding to a raise LOL
4. 3 Bet and Check the flop OOP (MASS LOL)
5. Shove over the top callecting the 450 of dead money which is about 20% of your stack and even if you get called your still in decent shape against alot of his opening range there
6. Fold, Fold AQ Suited.......for gawd sake whats the obvious choice here???

you need to put in more hours Ketchup its a crapshoot and these should be no brainers
 

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