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I've Lost about 6 of These 50/50's in a Row Because of Suckouts Like This One

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I've Lost about 6 of These 50/50's in a Row Because of Suckouts Like This One - Wed Jul 27, 2011, 12:12 AM
(#1)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Blinds are really high, so it's standard to min-raise in position to try and take down the pot pre-flop. This person would have reraised if they had a hand like AQ, AJ, AK. And they would have raised more post-flop with KQ, so I felt there was a good chance I was ahead on the flop and turn (and there was the flush draw to worry about). I guess they called my all-in because they were still ahead of the short-stack, and couldn't let go of their hand.



I don't know what else to do - I guess I should have waited for the short-stack to blind out, because they'd been disconnected for 20 minutes. So instead the guy who wasn't even playing won $5, and I lost another $3.50 to a bad beat.

There's a couple of players who win these every time and that's what they seem to do - play it like PSO ... as in NOT play. Maybe I need to try that ... anybody else had luck applying the winning playbook from PSO to other games?

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jul 27, 2011 at 12:15 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 02:48 AM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hey Sam,I know there are peeps here who can give you a much better answer than can I on these (the runners in the T.I.C. thread,JWK,JDean and Cookies all come to mind) but I'll impart what I can since I think our "experience" level in them is a little more on par with each other in these.

For myself I had just started to get going a little in these when the axe fell on 4/15. I was hitting the $1.11's ($1.50's now I guess?) and can't imagine that the play in the $3.50's is too much better so I think what I'm going to run with will play. I had run about 65 of the $1.11's and was sitting around 75% ITM with a 32/33% ROI so whilst I wasn't setting the world afire I was OK with my results (would have traded 5-7% ITM for 3-4% ROI but given the nature of these that may be counter-intuitive,I think ITM and ROI are maybe more in simpatico in these than in other games...).


First thing is something you've seen me say before as I'm a big,big believer in it----have a mission statement going in. Now poker is always an ever-shifting landscape of different variables due to many factors---cards,game structure,level of play of your opponents,just plain luck and a million other things. So you can never anticipate everything but to me that's just all the more reason to have a fairly solid idea of what you are trying to accomplish every time you load up a game.In these 50/50's it's to have as many chips as possible when half the field is eliminated and the game ends. Pretty straightforward.

So how to get there is the next question. Something you said in your post is going down the right path to me,at least early in these---PSO plays in these. I'm not saying pass every hand,but being very,very discerning in what hands you play through the first 3-4 blind levels in these goes a long way. Generally you'll see 2-3 players get KO'ed by the time the antes come out in level 5,sometimes the darn things are even over by then. It's like I said to you once before and I firmly believe is a good rule of thumb for pretty much any micro stakes game,especially the mini-micros--don't try to beat the bad players,let them hang themselves trying to beat you. So in the early stages of these I found that a nitty line and sticking with Category 1 hands and Cat 2-3 hands in position was the way to go.

Ok so say we're down to 6-7 players left now and the antes are out,what now? Well one thing that I think becomes a HUGE consideration here is something that you're a fan of---stack sizes and management. If I'm the big stack or second and it's an appreciable gap between myself and the smaller stacks then I'm using my stack and position above any consideration of what my cards are. Typically by now you can spot the bubble-watchers and exploit them. If they play back at you they have it,period. Now should I be in the middle/lower middle (as you were here) then I'm looking to attack the stacks that are smaller than me and only tangling with the bigger stacks when I'm very strong.

Which brings us to your hand. Now it feels to me that you're in that place where you feel like you got the short end of the stick on this hand,but at the same time you don't feel like your overall strategy in these games is getting it done. That's a tough spot to be in for sure,so let's try and address it.

First you played the hand well in and of itself. I'm not sure I would have had the same conviction that I was ahead on the flop as you as KQ,for instance,is easily in the range of hands the villain could be calling your min-raise pre with,so his lead out bet off the flop would give me pause. But once the 10 turns you know that the only hand you're sweating is AK and the way the villain played his hand I'm not giving them much credit for holding that myself. So yeah,get it in. Hard to find fault anytime you get it in ahead on the turn with how you played the hand.

So the question then turns to your decision to play the hand in the first place. This is where I'm going to spitball this a little bit. Now in most games and circumstances playing KJo in an un-opened pot for a raise from the button is a solid play to be sure. However with 6 players left in a 50/50 I'm very,very circumspect as to what hands I will and won't play at any stacks that have me covered,position non-withstanding. I would honestly prefer to be playing this hand for an opening raise had it come a hand earlier from the SB as the player on my immediate left is a stack I have covered and it's quite likely that their range has shrunk way the Hell up knowing that they can turtle into the money with the small stack being THAT small and sitting out to boot. Hell I would actually rather raise almost ATC's at the SB were the pot to come to me un-opened than tangle with a bigger stack with anything less than a monster hand. I really saw a lot of the time that stack sizes at the 6-7 players left point in these 50/50's is at least as important as position and hand strength.

Like I said I was just getting started on 50/50's myself when we got shut out but I had played enough to notice a few quirks that are unique unto the 50/50's themselves (DON's were much different to me as who cared what your stack size was as long as you were one of the survivors)and was working to learn to take the fullest advantage possible of them and find others as well.

So remember---mission statement and adaptability to changing structures and the shifting strategies that are inherent to each different game. What's a good play in an MTT or multi-table SNG may be a bad play in a 50/50 and vice-versa.

Keep plugging away and remember---try to find a "go-to" game or three.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Jul 27, 2011 at 03:00 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 04:37 AM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Moxie - a HUGE thanks for taking the time to think through all that and give the the road-map. I'm just up to sign up for the 5pm PSO, so I'm half-asleep. But I read through it and it sounds solid, solid!!!

I especially liked the mention of stack management - yah! yah!!!

I'm gonna have to re-read it again tomorrow before I comment on it more, but I feel really encouraged by the tips, and the suggestion to remember the big picture and the money and stacks and all that. I'm really optimistic that that's going to make a huge difference ... just really hit the spot I think.

Thanks!!!
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 10:56 AM
(#4)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Blinds are really high, so it's standard to min-raise in position to try and take down the pot pre-flop. This person would have reraised if they had a hand like AQ, AJ, AK. And they would have raised more post-flop with KQ, so I felt there was a good chance I was ahead on the flop and turn (and there was the flush draw to worry about). I guess they called my all-in because they were still ahead of the short-stack, and couldn't let go of their hand.



I don't know what else to do - I guess I should have waited for the short-stack to blind out, because they'd been disconnected for 20 minutes. So instead the guy who wasn't even playing won $5, and I lost another $3.50 to a bad beat.

There's a couple of players who win these every time and that's what they seem to do - play it like PSO ... as in NOT play. Maybe I need to try that ... anybody else had luck applying the winning playbook from PSO to other games?
here there was only 6 left so with your stack size i would off folded here since there is 2 players with smaller stacks then yours and the short was in the big blind next,i play in the $3.50 ones myself and the bubble play is always in the ones i play,i beleave here if you would off folded and waited here another hand that you may off made the money,remember 5players get paid here not like the standerd one tables of 3
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 11:01 AM
(#5)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
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Originally Posted by ronh1967 View Post
here there was only 6 left so with your stack size i would off folded here since there is 2 players with smaller stacks then yours and the short was in the big blind next,i play in the $3.50 ones myself and the bubble play is alwaystight in the ones i play,i beleave here if you would off folded and waited here another hand that you may off made the money,remember 5players get paid here not like the standerd one tables of 3
sorry met to say bubble play is always tight in the ones i play in
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 11:50 AM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
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Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Hey Sam,I know there are peeps here who can give you a much better answer than can I on these (the runners in the T.I.C. thread,JWK,JDean and Cookies all come to mind)
Little correction needed, the runners in the T.I.C. are: tom905, bman2004, easychips4u, gmanwicksy and myself (sandtrap777). Other runners sitting out are: effsea, thelangolier, mcrissinger

I play the 50/50 just like PSO, patience, patience.....hmmmmmmm, just like any other game really. Careful at big stacks as they like to increase them. If it's not going great, remember, it's better to finish in 5th with 200 chips to cover the cost and play another, because on the AVERAGE, it will take you 1.5 to recover. In other words, when you lose a game, you'll need to win 2 to break even.

 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 04:59 PM
(#7)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Decided to play 10 x $3.50 50/50's
Finished 1,2,2,3,3,3,5,8,10,10 (one of the 10th, lost with JJJ to runner runner QQQ)
Spend $35 and won $43.11
70% ITM with a ROI of 23%, looks great, but was running 4 tournament at a time for 2.5 hours, now that's $3.24/hour ......not so hot....lol
But I did get 13.20 VPP's

3 of the tournaments I cashed, I had dropped below 500 chips, just goes to say, if you use the patience used here in PSO, let the others take each other out while you watch...lol and remember, there is no reason to go all in (that's the way I see it)

Good luck
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 05:20 PM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Little correction needed, the runners in the T.I.C. are: tom905, bman2004, easychips4u, gmanwicksy and myself (sandtrap777). Other runners sitting out are: effsea, thelangolier, mcrissinger

I play the 50/50 just like PSO, patience, patience.....hmmmmmmm, just like any other game really. Careful at big stacks as they like to increase them. If it's not going great, remember, it's better to finish in 5th with 200 chips to cover the cost and play another, because on the AVERAGE, it will take you 1.5 to recover. In other words, when you lose a game, you'll need to win 2 to break even.


Okay sorry if the way I worded this caused confusion---my meaning was the runners in the T.I.C. thread,whom Trap named here, AND in addition to those peeps that JWK,JDean and Cookies would also be good players to chime in here.

Trust me Trap I know who you guys running in the T.I.C. are and now,thanks to Dano the Mano's PM telling me how to get .com back I'm railing you guys at times (no $ on the site so I have to do my silent Bob impersonation tho...).

Keep running good.

Sure you're gearing up for the WCOOP as well.
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 05:37 PM
(#9)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
.......
Sure you're gearing up for the WCOOP as well.
I was until I hit a skid downwards
9 Mtt's in a row lost to runner runner, thought I was on tilt
One of them was a real downer, AA flop A10 5 rainbow, he goes all in I call, he's got KK and catches KK (that was in the $109 tournament). At that point I was sitting in the top 33%

But I do intend to be part of the WCOOP, I just need to rebuild my bankroll
Hope to see you at the tables very very soon
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 07:39 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
I was until I hit a skid downwards
9 Mtt's in a row lost to runner runner, thought I was on tilt
One of them was a real downer, AA flop A10 5 rainbow, he goes all in I call, he's got KK and catches KK (that was in the $109 tournament). At that point I was sitting in the top 33%

But I do intend to be part of the WCOOP, I just need to rebuild my bankroll
Hope to see you at the tables very very soon

They way you whoop my monkey azz I bet you do...

Spudder47 probably misses me as well. I was real good at shoving hands into his Aces,lol. (BTW can we finally put him squarely in the top 10 PSO players ever list now? Making a run at it again this month. Guy is just about automatic when he decides he wants to place high in PSO.)

PS,
Why no posting of the quad K's over your Aces full boat in the Bad Beat section? Oh that's right,you get that poker happens. I was finally starting to get there when the shutdown came,THAT may be the thing that stings the most for me because I felt that mental outlook was my biggest barrier between where I was/am and where I would like to go.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Jul 27, 2011 at 07:45 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 08:01 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Man, this info is gold!!!

That's fascinating to hear about the business-orientation you all use in your approach to the tables, and how that interplays with your play. And how you think about minimizing risk and maximizing return. The level of sophistication with which you approach your games is amazing.

I'm trying to think of a response to show that I'm processing and absorbing all that you've said. But I think I'm still trying to process it because it's such a shift in mindset.

Something just clicked with all that advice and guidance you've outlined, but I can't put into words how I know that. I just feel like I want to give you all royalties on any winnings I make from now on after I'm able to put your advice into practice

I can't thank you all enough Moxie, Sandtrap, Ron for the help I'll keep you updated on how it goes


PS Such a bummer you can't still play Moxie ... hopefully soon
 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 12:50 AM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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I guess even AA and KK aren't safe to play

Hmmm ... some of this may be variance. Gonna keep plugging away and stick to the formula - can't win 'em all

 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 01:02 AM
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hemetdennis's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Okay sorry if the way I worded this caused confusion---my meaning was the runners in the T.I.C. thread,whom Trap named here, AND in addition to those peeps that JWK,JDean and Cookies would also be good players to chime in here.

Trust me Trap I know who you guys running in the T.I.C. are and now,thanks to Dano the Mano's PM telling me how to get .com back I'm railing you guys at times (no $ on the site so I have to do my silent Bob impersonation tho...).

Keep running good.

Sure you're gearing up for the WCOOP as well.

DID DANO SAY WHO GAVE HIM THE INFO. FOR THE .COM ???



 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 01:10 AM
(#14)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
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Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I guess even AA and KK aren't safe to play

Hmmm ... some of this may be variance. Gonna keep plugging away and stick to the formula - can't win 'em all

Depends on how you play them
I'm not a big fan of all in's
If you look at high stake games, it's all about value betting. It's very rare that there is an all in.

One thing for sure, if you go all in, there is that possibility of losing it all, but doing step by step, you still have that chance of pulling out. (not saying to min bet)

 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 01:51 AM
(#15)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
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Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
DID DANO SAY WHO GAVE HIM THE INFO. FOR THE .COM ???




Some random donk...

...though he did say something about a sword I think. Or was it a sword-swallower?
 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 02:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Some random donk...

...though he did say something about a sword I think. Or was it a sword-swallower?

HEY CAN YOU CHAT ON THE PSO TABLES ???



 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 02:30 AM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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hahahah (Moxie and Dennis)

Sandtrap, I guess it's that whole big picture thing - I didn't incorporate it into my game the right way. I got excited to have AA and did shove to try to not get involved in a hand, but bb had a monster hand too and they won (it was thanat - even the $1 tables are packed with primo good players!)

The whole business mindset thing is genius. I'm gonna keep practicing ... I'm very optimistic that's the key!!!

Thanks again so much for the feedback (and the funnies too) everybody


Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Jul 28, 2011 at 03:13 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 03:33 AM
(#18)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
HEY CAN YOU CHAT ON THE PSO TABLES ???




Yes.

I did the cashout thing though so no chatting on cash MTT/SNG tables but I am looking to rail some peeps.
 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 03:38 AM
(#19)
hemetdennis's Avatar
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THAT'S WHY I'M GLAD I STILL HAVE CASH HERE
BUT YOU KNOW ME I NEVER CHAT



 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 03:46 AM
(#20)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I guess even AA and KK aren't safe to play

Hmmm ... some of this may be variance. Gonna keep plugging away and stick to the formula - can't win 'em all


Sam do you have a tracking/HUD that you use (Hold 'Em Manager or PT3 for example)?

If not I would highly recommend downloading the free trial versions of these (PT3--Poker Tracker 3--has a free 60 day version for both NLHE and Omaha,you can even run them concurrently).

They have a ton of self analysis tools and filters,filters and more filters. One huge thing I got out of the PT3 trial when I ran it was seeing my actual %'s in all possible holdings (AA-22 and any combo in between,suited and not). One thing that was kicked in to my dunderhead was that despite what my biased memory was telling me was that my AA,KK,QQ and AK hands WERE indeed all playing within 2-3 points of normal parameters,plus or minus. AA was even running a little "hot" and the minute I saw that I lost 4 out of my next 5 AA hands,lol. Guess the water needed to find it's level.

If you've never done this do it,NOW. It's a huge confidence boost to see that AA and KK actually do hold as much as they're supposed to and you'll very likely find hands that you are playing in such a way as to make them a leak in your game. (I found 3 hands where I was straight up spewing chips like Linda Blair in the Exorcist.)

The usefulness of the HUD feature itself will be self evident once you have it up and running.

Working out a reply to your "business approach" musings that I'll either pop up tonight or tomorrow.
 

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