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Would you have folded this?

 
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Would you have folded this? - Thu Jul 28, 2011, 04:32 PM
(#1)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16

Last edited by NL_Niels; Fri Jul 29, 2011 at 10:35 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 28, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
(NO Neils...it wasn;t a dumb post...not if you did not intend it as a bad beat whine...please re-edit and put it back up.)

Hello NL_Niels, and welcome to the forum.

I saw your first post in here, a few days ago, and it is my intent to put something up for that, but your question ther is so HUGE that it is taking me a while...sorry

About this one...

Simple Answer: No. I am not folding this. Bad Beat, move on.

I think that is an ineffective answer, to an ineffective question though...

Would I fold when?
Pre-flop? On the flop? When the dealer calls the floorman to pry my cards from my cold, dead hands?

Also...

To know whether or not I'd fold at any point in this hand, I would also need to know as much as possible about my opponent(s)...

You probably either posted this way as a bad beat "whine" (un-likely I think), or you posted this way because you saw the results, and do not understand why, or how this might have been "avoided".

It strikes me that you are pretty "new" to poker, so please allow me a little time to "ramble", and give you a little back ground info that may help you to "view" situations like this in a way which can help you down the road in your "poker journey", ok?

FIRST:
Neils, poker is a game of DECISIONS.

If you are "results oriented", by that meaning you only look at the RESULTS of a hand (or a session, or a decision) to decide whether you played well or poorly, you will end up trying too hard to "adjust" your decisions to account for the un-controllable factor of LUCK. Since "luck will happen", both for you and against you, the key "goal" of poker is to make your decisions based upon the most EXPECTED VALUE you can derive.

Example:

EVEN BET vs BAD BET vs GOOD BET:

I see you one day at the Casino.
Both of us are waiting to be seated at a poker table.
Since we are poker players, by definition we are degenerate gamblers, right?
So it would be pretty common to offer to "flip coins" for money bets while we wait.

I offer to flip with you as many times as you want.
Each Time I win, you give me $1.
Each tim you win, I give you $1.

How do you assess whether flipping a coin here is a good bet or a bad bet?
(Let's assume the flip is 100% "square" and there is no cheating going on at all, ok?)

Simple:
There is a 50% chance it comes up heads
There is a 50% chance it comes up tails.

If we were to flip the coin 100 times, we can EXPECT it to come up 50 heads, and 50 tails...right?

NOTE: this does not mean it WILL end up 50/50 after 100 flips, merely that the mathematics of the expected outcomes are that this will happen! I'll not bore you with statistical theory evidence of why we can expect this, if you are curious, try googling.

That means:
50 times we WIN $1
50 times we LOSE $1
Net EXPECTED outcome of 100 flips is: $0
So the "value" of what we "expect" (EV, or Expected Value) = $0.00

That is an "even bet", with the only determiner of the winner being "luck".

Now I know at this Casino they call you "Lucky Neils", so I feel that you are going to win more flips than me. As such, instead of offering a straight 50/50 risk/return proposition, I tell you I need a little bet of "edge" to help off-set your "luck".

I offer to pay you $1 when you win, but I want $1.01 from you when I win.
Let's look at what that does to our "expected value" across the series of 100 bets:

We will each still win 50 of 100
We will each still lose 50 of 100

(your "luck" in the past has absolutely no bearing on the potential for you to continue to "be lucky" right? So it is "un-predictable" and not a factor upon which we can judge a bet "proposition". That is what I meant above by saying "luck is un-controllable")

50 times you win $1 = +$50
50 times you lose $1.01 = -$50.50
"Expected" End result of 100 flips = -$0.50 YOU!

Your "Expected value" for EACH flip in the 100 series is:
-$0.50 / 100 = -$0.005 per flip! (or 1/2 a cent)

This is a "bad bet" for you, because if you continue to make it for a LOOOOONG time, approaching "forever", the "inevitable results" is that you will lose ALL YOUR MONEY. You will lose it all very slowly, but you WILL lose all of it (or a good bit of it right up until the time you die )

If instead, let's say you only brought enough money to the Casino for 1 buy in to your favorite game, plus enough for dinner, and $5 to tip the cocktail waitresses. You would probably be reluctant to take an "even money" bet, because then you'd be "spending" the waitresses' tip cash if you lost (and since you date a real HOT waitress there, she might slap you! ).

So instead, YOU insist on the $1 vs. $1.01 risk/return proposition.
Obviously, the same negative situation would then apply to ME, and it would be a GOOD BET for you...if I took it.

HOW THIS APPLIES TO POKER:

Poker as a game is all about putting "profits in your pocket".

If we cannot use "luck" as a method to have better "control" over how much money we put in our pockets, we must look at improving what we CAN "control": our decisions.

So the key thing for us to do, if we want to increase our EXPECTATION of long term profit from poker is to improve our decisions so that we can identify as many "positive expected value" situations as possible, to create more of those +EV situations by our actions, and to "see" the -EV situations thus avoid continuing to put our moeny at risk "badly".

The way we go about the goals of identifiyng good situations, creating good situations, and identifying bad situations so we can avoid them is to take advantage of as much INFORMATION as possible. So in large part, "poker skill" is a measure of how much information you can 'see" at a table, and how well you USE that information...

Before getting back to your hand, I'd like to summarize:

1) Poker is a game of decisions; the better your decision are, the better your poker play will be.
2) Your decisions in poker should be designed to increase your "expected value". This does not mean you will win every time you have positive expected value, but it does mean that your wins, by being larger and more frequent, will off-set your losses; and this puts "profit in your pocket".
3) The more information you can gather and use, about your opponents, about your hand strength, about the "math" of poker, the better your decisions will be.

Ok...

BACK TO YOUR HAND:

All this is why your hand, without more information, is pretty "simple" to analyize...

1) When you are working on "incomplete information" (in poker, everyone does, even the "best" players, because cards are hidden), there are always at LEAST 2 "possibilities".

KK is such a strong hand, that only 1 hand is ahead of it out of the entire range of 169 hold 'em start hands (169 if you "assume" Ah Kd is the "same" as Ac Ks).

The chances the Villain has EXACTLY AA are very very small, and without that, no matter what he has you are 'ahead" pre-flop.

So pre-flop you CANNOT FOLD without a lot more very specific info.

2) On the flop things are entirely different. How do we decide if we are ahead or if we are behind?

There are now quite a few hands which are "better" than your KK over pair.
Any pp 66/55/99 is ahead of you.
Any 2 pair hand is ahead of you.
Any AA hand is ahead of you.
78 is ahead of you.

"2 way draws", hands like Ad7d are a "math favorite" over you (meaning their chance to hit outs to beat you is greater than 50/50 by the river), even though you are "ahead" of them.

Everything thing else is behind you, to a greater or lesser degree.

If we go back to the above info I put up, we now know what we are looking for is to "leverage our information" to make the decision with the "best expected value" for us, right? What DO we know, what CAN we know here, and what SHOULD we know here?
(Since you did not put u any "read info" on the villain, I am just going to go with what I consider "normal", ok?)

We DO know he raised pre flop.
This should "narrow" his "range" of hands if we have been watching what he raised on in the past.

How?
A lot of players will not raise pre-flop from middle positions with hands like 56/78/69/59, right?
That means we can "down grade" the possibility of him holding one of these "trash hands".
All of those hands would be ahead of us on this flop.
(Note: we cannot totally discount them as "possible", because humans are highly un-predictable! But we can lower the chance of them to help "focus" OUR decision)

We also know we re-raised him pre-flop.
A lot of players who "love" weak suited Aces will still fold them to a re-raise.
This could serve to lower the "threat" of something like A7d or A8d being out there.

We also have information from PAST hands, and how this villain played them, that we can use.
This info will help to tell us how likely he is to call a re-raise with hands like 55/66/99.
This info will also tend to tell us if he would 4Bet us with a hand like AA or not.

We also know that he started the hand with relatively little money "behind".
This will tend to effect players in widely different ways.

Some might just put them all in saying "screw it, this is good enough!" Versus that type, we would lower our estimation of the hand strength he might have.

Some might be the "grinder" type, who work very hard to "come back" with a short stack. Against those, we'd tend to raise our hand strength estimation for him, and would get rid of some of the "weaker" hands (ok, down grade them even further, not totally get rid of them as possibilities!) that might be ahead of us on the flop.

We also should have an idea about this villain's overall "poker skill" level; if we can "read" that, then we can also begin to add thoughts to our decision process reflecting on what we thinks HE thinks we have! (note: at micro-stakes, a lot of opponents do not "care" or do not know how to observe you. Agaisnt those players, trying to use higher "levels" of poker thinking like this are use-less. So no need to get overly "cutesy" trying to think like that in every case. You should be looking for players who do try to observe you.)

These are some of the sorts of things you should try looking for and remembering to improve your poker decisions...
there are TONS of other things which can go into "refining" and "sharpening" your decisions, and the more information "bits" you can gather and use, the better your decisions will tend to be overall...

BUT...

I'll stop now before I "over load" you TOO much!

It all boils down to this Neils...

A simple answer by me would have been:

Pre flop, you cannot fold because KK is too strong. Even if villain goes all in pre, you should be calling except in very extreme situations.

On the flop, yes your KK might be behind.
But your pre flop re-raise put you in a good situation to play for the rest of Villain's chips if he decides to jam and your KK is an over-pair.
This means if he donk-jammed the pot (went all in ahead of you), you are callling WAY more often than folding, since folding would be less EV for you.

After he checks, and you bet, you simply CANNOT fold.
You are facing a 112 to 1 pot odds situation, so as long as the villain will be on less than KK 1 time in 113 (well under 1% of the time!), you simply must calling; putting that much into the pot then FOLDING just because you think you "might" be beat is a HUGE mistake.

...

Instead it appeared to me that your question was likely from a player who did not know how to put all the pieces together to arrive at that analysis himself, even though this really is a very "simple" decision. I felt it might be better to show you HOW to make your own decision, under the assumptions inherent in the old saying:

"Give a man a fish, and he eats today. TEACH a man to fish, and he eats for a lifetime."

The info I put up may SEEM daunting Neils, but rust me...when you hve more experience it will all beocme almost "automatic".
Just break this stuff down into digestible pieces, and try each piece out on the tables.

Start out by calculating every bet anyone makes at your table in terms of Big Blind amount, and Percentage of their stack.
That let's you begin to "see" how deeply they are invested in pots.
This will also let you start to see "patterns' in bet sizing decisions.

When you have that, move on to watching 1 opponent at your table, and try guessing what he has whether you are in the pot or not.
That will help you sharpen your "ranging" abilities.

Then move on to the next step, and the next, and the next...

Before you know it, everything I put up here will seem incredibly "obvious" to YOU!

hope it helps...
 
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Fri Jul 29, 2011, 10:57 AM
(#3)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
I put the hand back up as you requested. The reason why I considered it a dumb question after carefully reviewing the hand myself, is that I completely overlooked the fact that when I bet on the flop and the guy raised me, he only raised me by 1 cent. Of course there's absolutely no way I could have ever folded that. In my mind for some reason, I made a bigger call there. No idea why I kept on thinking that even until after posting the hand here.

My main question here would be: say I have a big pocket pair, AA, KK or such, and I play a hand like the above, but instead of facing a guy with a small stack it would be a somewhat bigger one, what kind of bet would you guys fold? I guess at some point you must assume you're up against a set. I doubt even the worst fish would push in 2 or 3 dollars with air. Could be up against QQ or JJ though, in which case you'd miss out on a nice large pot. Is this just generally a tough decision, where you really have to decide purely on the read you have on a player, or is there some math that can assist in making a statistically sounds decision?

I think I'm a bit further in my understanding of the game than you give me credit for based on the concepts you explain to me. I read a few strategy articles here and there and I know basic statistics; I have an MSc degree in engineering and I had probability and statistics classes . The coin flip example I grasp, don't worry! That doesn't mean that I don't greatly appreciate the time you took to type up such an elaborate answer and it was still very helpful to me! Most internet communities are ruthless towards what are perceived as n00b questions; here people are nothing but supportive. My compliments for that! I'm sure I can learn a lot here.

I'll put up another hand soon that I've been contemplating a bit. I'm wondering if for that one I should have paid to see the turn based on the implied odds (which is a great opportunity to get you guys to explain that concept in a bit more detail). If I can still find it in my history that is. Of looking for it now!
 
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Fri Jul 29, 2011, 04:51 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by NL_Niels View Post
I put the hand back up as you requested. The reason why I considered it a dumb question after carefully reviewing the hand myself, is that I completely overlooked the fact that when I bet on the flop and the guy raised me, he only raised me by 1 cent. Of course there's absolutely no way I could have ever folded that. In my mind for some reason, I made a bigger call there. No idea why I kept on thinking that even until after posting the hand here.

My main question here would be: say I have a big pocket pair, AA, KK or such, and I play a hand like the above, but instead of facing a guy with a small stack it would be a somewhat bigger one, what kind of bet would you guys fold? I guess at some point you must assume you're up against a set. I doubt even the worst fish would push in 2 or 3 dollars with air. Could be up against QQ or JJ though, in which case you'd miss out on a nice large pot. Is this just generally a tough decision, where you really have to decide purely on the read you have on a player, or is there some math that can assist in making a statistically sounds decision?

I think I'm a bit further in my understanding of the game than you give me credit for based on the concepts you explain to me. I read a few strategy articles here and there and I know basic statistics; I have an MSc degree in engineering and I had probability and statistics classes . The coin flip example I grasp, don't worry! That doesn't mean that I don't greatly appreciate the time you took to type up such an elaborate answer and it was still very helpful to me! Most internet communities are ruthless towards what are perceived as n00b questions; here people are nothing but supportive. My compliments for that! I'm sure I can learn a lot here.

I'll put up another hand soon that I've been contemplating a bit. I'm wondering if for that one I should have paid to see the turn based on the implied odds (which is a great opportunity to get you guys to explain that concept in a bit more detail). If I can still find it in my history that is. Of looking for it now!
VERY FAIR!

Now we have a question within what appears to be a bad beat!

BTW...

Sorry for be-laboring the obvious in there.

A lot of folks who have not had statistics classes do not know those things, and since your question just seemed SO OBVIOUS I instantly "assumed" if you did not see it you must be quite new! "the Law of Large Numbers", and the "Law of Independant Trails" especially seem to give some poker players fits...or else you'd see fewer bad beat whines!

(As I said too, I had looked at the other HH you put up, and there were some pretty "newb" type bets going on in there...Keep in mind though, as you state, unlike a lot of forums PSO is all about "learning", so "newb" is not a bad word...it is a simple condition which time and experience, plus effort, will correct! so saying that does not mean I'm insulting, merely describing)

OK...

As you know, KK is quite strong.

That guy ahead of you is much shorter than you when he raises, but because of the strength inherent in your hand (only 1 hand is "better" right now, of the 169 distinct hold em start hands), chances are pretty strong that you hold the better hand right now...

Per the coin flip example (one of the first things taught in statistics classes), when you are a FAVORITE, it is in your best interests to get as much money into the pot NOW as possible.

BUT...

71% of all your hand's "value" will be realized on the flop.

Large pocket pairs will only see "improvement" on a flop roughly 1 in 8.5 times...when they flop a set. As such, if they do NOT flop a set, it is pretty rare that they will pick up draw outs (to a straight or a flush), and the chance of making a set on the turn or river is now much less than flopping one. Plus, since a pp is PAIRED, even if it does flop straight or flush outs, the chances the big pp is "beat" goes way UP when it is drawing (BECAUSE there would be 3 to a str or FL on the board, and someone else could have made one already...see?).

All this together means that big pocket pairs, and to a large extent big un-paired hands like AK/AQ, "want" a pot that has fewer people in it.

Note: I have seen some math info by Mike Caro showing that AA is MOST PROFITABLE if played in 4 way pots. AA will tend to lose more often in those 4 way pots, but the the additional amounts won will offset that greater loss frequency. Above 4 way pots, profitability declines since the chance of losing increases faster than the amount won from additional players increases. It is probably quite close to this for KK. But with that said, "fewer opponents = better" for KK.

All that info together means to fold KK PRE-FLOP in a cash game, no matter WHAT the stack sizes, raise size, or bet size is, would take a pretty 'extraordinary" circumstances

such circumstances might be: a guy you;ve played against for 24 hours straight, has entered 4 pots total, each time for a raise or re-raise. Every single time he entered, he was raised. Each time he was raised, he jammed, and was called. each time he was called, he showed AA.

PLUS! He has an amount in front of him which covers you, and you are playing with the absolute LAST MONEY you will "ever" have to play poker with. I say this as an additional condition because the money must "matter strongly" to you. It might not have to be this extreme, it could simply be you are palying for the first time ever in a 5/10 NLHE game, with 3000 in front of you; losing that 3k would hurt "too much" to run the risk that he is bluffing now, but if the amount is smaller you must know that everyone bluffs at some point, so if it were a "typical" casino BI for me at the 1/2 level of 200$, and he open raised to $10, and I re-raised to $30, and he went all in for jsut like $70 more, I think I call...even if all he had ever shown was AA. He might have decided his "image" was such he could rep AA now...

Sorry to make what seems to be a "ramble" there, but I wanted to establish that your actions in this hand were perfectly "correct" when you hold KK, and it would have taken something very wierd to be at work for you to fold had he jammed you pre. That is part #1 of your Q...

On to part #2, the Flop...

When you take the flop with a large pp and do not "improve" to be more than "just" a board over pair, the fact that an opponent could have hit the flop STRONGER than a single pair puts you in what is called a "negative implied odds" situation if you are facing a strong raise or re-raise.

Negative implied odds situations are characterized by the fact that your opponent is either on much LESS than you (generally a draw or just a smaller top pair hit of air ball bluffs), therefore any further raise by you is un-likely to get called, OR he is on a bigger hand than you and your board over pair has little chance of "improving". That puts you in a tricky spot, because you are either "right" that your hand is best, or you are "wrong" and your hand is well behind. You cannot re-raise for value, because he folds worse or calls/re-raises better, you cannot CALL because you are still in the same tricky spot and are jsut "delaying" the ultimate decison AND putting more money in, and you cannot fold because you are not sure you are beaten. so what DO you do?

Answer: You apply a way to make your SUBSEQUENT DECISIONS "easier"...

There is a tru-ism in poker that says: "sometimes the good players fold the best hand"
There is another one too: "The biggest mistake in poker is when you put a LARGE PORTION of your stack into the pot, then FOLD".

Together, these 2 should lead you to realize that the SMALLER THE POT, the more ready you should be to fold what MIGHT be the "best hand" to a dis-proportionately large bet...right?

So...

There next thought you need to be aware of is that in NLHE cash games, the rules of "tables stakes" dictate that you can only lose the amount in front of you, right? That means then the SMALLER STACK in a heads up hand "dictates" the ultimate "risk" the larer stack has...he cannot lose more than the smaller stack, right?

That means the "effective stack" at work in your hand is the shorter stack...see?

So...

If you are more willing to fold the best hand in a SMALL pot, and more willing to risk have the worst hand in a BIG pot (by being more willing to call), you need a "guage" of what a small pot, or a large pot is...

That concept is "Stack-to-Pot Ratio".

From the START of this hand, your KK "asks" to have you put as much in pre-flop as you can.

Of course you want to get value from putting in that amount, so you cannot simply shove...that will result in you causing worse hands to fold, and only AA to call, right?
So it is very HARD to get an effective stack of 57c to CALL all in after he has raised to "just" 6c.
you must re-raise LESS than that, and "hope" he shoves the rest of his chips in...

SPR is useful in helping you to decide how much to raise in order to make it "easy" for you to call or to fold to any 4Bet.

In this spot, the pot when action comes to you is 9c, and as a ratio to the "effective stack", his stakc is about 5 times more than the pot.

Anything under about 4 and you can pretty much commit the rest of your stack on any flop that does not have an A with decent confidence.
the amount you are risking vs the amount you stand to win is "close enough" that you really are not "worried" if a stack that short jams...if he wins, so be it. but you do not want to risk that he feels "stuck" with "just" top pair, and fold your chance of winning for a small amount...see?

If it were an SPR above 10 to 13 (after your action), your big pp is very very vulnerable to a strong c/r on the flop, simply because the pot is too SMALL in relation to the effective stacks for you to consider calling a "large" bet (like a big pot over bet).

Anything between about 4 and 10 is a pretty "grey zone". This is why your re-raise to 18c right up front is so nice...it really "clarifies" for you what you will do if the guy shoves (either pre, or on the flop), you CALL.

So in this spot, NO you are never folding on this flop when you hold a board over pair.

COULD there be a situation where you fold...sure.

If villain is there with the same size stack as you, there was the exact same action as in this hand, and he jams 'em all in on this flop.
He might be bluffing or semi-bluffing...but the risk is too great and the pot is too small to be worth calling lot of times...

Not saying you'd fold EVERY TIME he does that, but if you "see" the pattern of him getting "jammy" on flops versus "tight" players, the NEXT TIME you see him raise pre and you have a "big" hand, you re-raise BIGGER, thus making it much "easier" to call him on the flop if he jams you...you do not try to "guuess" on the flop, you configure your earlier decisions to make your later ones easier.

see?

Hope that answers you...
 
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Fri Jul 29, 2011, 06:50 PM
(#5)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
Thanks again for a great post.

Final question: what do you think of my bet sizing on the flop? Was a pot sized bet too much and should I have gone for half the pot size? What you're telling about the implied odds seems to point in that direction. Either I have him properly beat and he'll fold and I take down the pot anyway, or he will shove (or make a big raise if he has a larger stack than in this example) if he fancies a bluff or hits the flop heavy, and I can decide to call or fold based on SPR. In case I'm forced to fold I'll lose only half as much while at the same time I'm just as likely to take down the (same sized) pot if he completely missed the flop. Makes sense?

Or do you think that this might not apply at these micro stakes, since guys will put too much money in pots after hitting just top pair more often than they would at a table with only solid players? In that case being a bit looser might in the long run have positive EV when it comes to calling raises on the flop, right? Or do you think I underestimate the range with which players at this level make big bets on flops like this and just give them respect?

Oh.. and in my defence: I can see why you might consider me a noob based on these freeroll hands I posted earlier. However, I honestly knew I played all those hands too loose from a mathematical point of view. It's just that I lose patience after some hours in an MTT and get looser, especially when I have a big stack. Then after losing a big hand I get annoyed at no longer having a big stack and stay loose. I'm fully aware that these are typical beginner 'mistakes', but if I'm quite honest with you, the whole problem is I can't be arsed when I get to that point. Would it be a tournament where I actually paid and could win some nice money rather than $3.78, I'd tighten up my game after dropping down to a medium stack. Having said that, the feedback I got on that post on my bet sizing was very useful to me.
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 12:13 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Your bet sizing is fine.

A "standard" 3Bet is usually from between 1.5 and 2.5 times the original lead bet; you raised exactly 2 times.

The thing is in this hand that 3Bet sizing happened to put you in a very beneficial SPR situation, where calling by the effective stack means he has given up all chance of jamming you, and taking down the pot. So in this spot, it makes the short stack "card dependant"...meaning he MUST hit a hand that is bigger than yours, because you are not folding.

A lot of times the effective stack does NOT allow you any "reasonable" size raise to get your decision into a beneficial SPR range. Such would be the case here if the villain had a similar stack to yours. You'd be faced with making a large OVER RAISE, one that will likely be called only by AA (or other very TIGHT range hands), to get down to a 4 or under, or you run the risk of a CALL/JAM that might result in you folding because the "win" might not be worth the risk.

Villains who will bluff/jam a big stack into a small pot are (thankfully) pretty rare, and if you DO confront one, it is likely he will attempt to to that "move" too much; thus revealing himself. So there really is no way to get around solid "reads" to formulate your decisions, but there are ways to guage when you MIGHT make a call of a shove in one spot, when you wouldn't call that same shove in another, simply based on stack sizes.
 

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