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AK fold part 2 -THE MATH!!!

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AK fold part 2 -THE MATH!!! - Fri Jul 29, 2011, 05:59 AM
(#1)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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ok as in my earlier hand analasis about the AK fold a got loads of reactions! now i want to use that hand to perfect my math calcs at the table because normaly i hardly have the the time to put it al together.

SO GUYS CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG but don't talk about equity because thats a little to much right now.

also leave out the fact that this are morons who played me and if i should have stayed in the hand.

just the math!!!

here we go:

i am in the cut off and raise a caller 3 BB with AsKh wich wins as a starter about 4;1/5;1 times.

i get called by the SB and the BB and everybody else folds. now my hand (looked it up) probably wins around 45% of the time against 2 opponents and i am in possition.

flop comes:
Ah Qh Jc

I hit top pair top kicker, nut straight draw, backdoor nut flush. So now i have to do my own math and my opponants right!!

first ranging:
my fears are: QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, KT, QJ and highend suited cards in hearts( in this case i had to range way more then this because of the morons they were)

this in fact i will reduce my outs with 2

47 cards left i need an A(2times), K(3x), T(4x) 9 outs 9-2="7outs"
Or can i calculate more outs for the bd flush or so????

so for inprovement:
7x4=28 % on the turn and 7x2 =14 % on the river if it doesn't hit on the turn right???

47/7 x 46/7= 44% chance i hit on either the turn or river right???? don't trust this one)

so now the question is this correct do i have a 44 % chance of winning this hand??????
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 04:14 AM
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77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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any one willing to explain to me if i am right here?????????
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 10:37 AM
(#3)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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then i'll reply myself!! i don't have clue!! well that's not entire true i have a little clue!!

pls HELP
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 10:42 AM
(#4)
the_eagle23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
any one willing to explain to me if i am right here?????????
Haha, i wish i could man but i'm no math Wiz. You made it pretty convincing but what do i know?
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 10:52 AM
(#5)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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can u ask one who know's lol!! because i can put a lot of numbers but i want to know if i think in the right direction
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 11:36 AM
(#6)
the_eagle23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
can u ask one who know's lol!! because i can put a lot of numbers but i want to know if i think in the right direction
I'm sure someone will catch on to this thread.

Edit: Just thinking about it do you really need to know ALL the math involved? I don't think so, i think the basics can get you along way. But if you're really into this and want to know all the math tis find by me lol

Last edited by the_eagle23; Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM..
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 12:15 PM
(#7)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
JDean will probably put you right, unfortunately it is a little early just yet.

Have patience.

 
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The Odds - Sat Jul 30, 2011, 12:26 PM
(#8)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
You are almost a three to one favourite against two random hands. With this board the tighter the opponents range, the lower your odds of winning are.

To calculate your odds of improving your hand, do the following:
single cards that improve your hand are A(2), K(3), 10(4); FOR 9 OUTS. Cards left are 47. You have 38 single cards that do not improve your hand. Your chances of getting one of the bad cards on the turn are 38 in 47. If you get a bad card on the turn, your chances of also getting a bad card on the river are 37 in 46. Total chances of not improving with the turn and river are 37x38/46x47=1406/2162or just a little less tha 2 out of three times you will not improve. You will improve a little more than one in three times.
For the back door flush you need hearts on both the turn and river. I have already used the high hearts, so you need two from 2 to 9. This leaves 8 of 47 that improve your hand on the turn, and if you are lucky then you still need one of the seven remaining small hearts on the river. So the odds are 8x7/ 46x47=56/2162, about 1 in 37. As you can see, back door draws do not help your hand very much.
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 12:45 PM
(#9)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
tnx again i used this example to see if i aply the math right!

now is see my percentages are off! cos if i read u right it's about 33% chance of winning!!

ok i said 44 but i think i can build on in this direction tnx guys
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 01:02 PM
(#10)
zlizard's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
ok as in my earlier hand analasis about the AK fold a got loads of reactions! now i want to use that hand to perfect my math calcs at the table because normaly i hardly have the the time to put it al together.

SO GUYS CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG but don't talk about equity because thats a little to much right now.

also leave out the fact that this are morons who played me and if i should have stayed in the hand.

just the math!!!

here we go:

i am in the cut off and raise a caller 3 BB with AsKh wich wins as a starter about 4;1/5;1 times.

i get called by the SB and the BB and everybody else folds. now my hand (looked it up) probably wins around 45% of the time against 2 opponents and i am in possition.

flop comes:
Ah Qh Jc

I hit top pair top kicker, nut straight draw, backdoor nut flush. So now i have to do my own math and my opponants right!!

first ranging:
my fears are: QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, KT, QJ and highend suited cards in hearts( in this case i had to range way more then this because of the morons they were)

this in fact i will reduce my outs with 2

47 cards left i need an A(2times), K(3x), T(4x) 9 outs 9-2="7outs"
Or can i calculate more outs for the bd flush or so????

so for inprovement:
7x4=28 % on the turn and 7x2 =14 % on the river if it doesn't hit on the turn right???

47/7 x 46/7= 44% chance i hit on either the turn or river right???? don't trust this one)

so now the question is this correct do i have a 44 % chance of winning this hand??????
to be fair I think you can discount some of the big pairs, AA,KK,QQ as they'd have 3bet preflop
 
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Sat Jul 30, 2011, 08:07 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You;ve only considered hands that are ahead of you here, and have totally eliminated any that might be behind you. If these are the ENTIRETY of your range reads, then you should FOLD...

(I know that disagrees with my answer to you in the HA forum, but let me explain...)

The reason your should fold is that you beat NOTHING in this range, and you are simply behind to a lesser or greater degree. Unless the pot odds (and/or implied odds) are so excessive as to pay for you to take an "underneath" position, you should fold.

BUT...

If you are ranging your opponent for ONLY hands that beat you, are you ranging him "effectively"?

You Say:

my fears are: QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, KT, QJ and highend suited cards in hearts( in this case i had to range way more then this because of the morons they were)

If he'd call on QJ, mightn't he also call on KJ?
Aren't ALL aces "better" than QJ? Hands like A2/A3?
If he'd call on KT, why not KQ?

Ranging is designed to prevent you from falling into "wishful thinking", either of the sort which leads you to assume the villain can ONLY be behind you, or the type that leads you to believe he can only be ahead of you.

This means, unfortunately Wopke, eerything you have put into this post is invalid...

FYI tho...

The hand as posted in the HA forum was this, but Wopke then saw an all in and a call ahead of him...his decision was whether to call off the remainder of his stack (12BB).

He also supplied a "read" that all villains in the hand were pretty loose and wild...

for THIS situation, that means you really need to consider all the hands ahead of you as possible Wopke, but you ALSO should be considering hands like:

Ax (top pair/worse kicker)
TT (pp with a gut shot)
Tx and Kx
and jsut about ANY 2 hearts...

all those are behind you.

I have input a tighter range than what might be there for 2 opponents versus you.

That range is: Ax (suited and off suit), All broadways (suited and off), All pp TT+, suited Ks to K8, Suited Q's to Q9, J9s and T9s. That is a 25.5% range for each of your maniac villains.

The result I get for your equity is: 46.5% to essentially TRIPLE...
you;d only "need" 33% equity to triple to make it mathematically ok to call...so your actually equity is almost 50% MORE than you "need" to call.

this is pretty similar to being so risk averse that you are folding away a 70/30 "dominating" all in pre-flop advantage....TOO TIGHT except on EXTREMELY DEEP STACKS, even for a ladder climbing event. Afterall...jsut because you benefit from ladder climbing, you NEED CHIPS to ladder climb too!

so if you consider your equity to be that high, and your choice is to fold off 3BB of a 15BB stack, I stand by my answer in the HA forum...

If you got what you expected form the flop, you are in too deep to fold your top/top hand with a back door draw.

If you wanted to lessen risk by leaving "room" to get away from a 1 pair hit of any sort, then you should NOT have raised pre, and should have limped at most, or folded pre because the maniacs might bet too strongly into any 1 pair hit by you.

Last edited by JDean; Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 08:11 PM..
 

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