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Flush draw push...too risky?

 
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Flush draw push...too risky? - Sun Jul 31, 2011, 05:50 AM
(#1)
HohnerBoy's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 27


Ok i won this one, but i would still like to hear some critics. This is an example of gambling, but i had a quite good read on my opponents, i had many outs, and i liked my chances....should i really like chances like that?
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 07:01 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Wow...

Sorry to say this, but that isn't "gambling"...that is "praying to get lucky!"

First Comment:
Why limp Q9s UTG?
You are usually going to miss, but when you hit it will either be a top pair Q with a weak kicker, or a top pair 9 that might not be good.
If you flop a flush draw (about 1 time in 9), you will be out of position and have a very difficult time being sure you will get a good price to play it.
No matter what you will be in a tricky spot unless the very VERY rare occurence happens and you flop a real "monster" (trips+).

Overall, yuck.

Second Comment:
What "read" can you have that will tell you your Villains here will be on a hand that is WEAKER than Q9s when there is a raise?
If you held a read that says Q9s IS better than the button's raise ange, why not re-raise, to potentially squeeze out the 2nd limper?

Again, yuck.

Third Comment:
Why call off a 51BB+ stack on just a flush draw?
If you were short here, say 10-15BB after getting involved, ok...MAYBE I can see "standing" on a flush draw, but you are not short, not even close.
Do you know how often a flush draw will not complete by the river if you are all in?
Can you honestly say you were CERTAIN the guy who led 800 would call as well, so you'd know how much you might win in total, verus how much you had at risk?
Do you realize how the chance someone might hold a set effects your chances to be good if your flush fills?
Do you realize how much chance there was that someone may have held a bigger flush draw?

If you are not aware of those sorts of things, then you are just "gambling", and gambling with the worse end of the stick usually.

So...

Overall, I have to say you WAY over played this hand, and you were in a really bad situation that you did not need to be in on the depth of money you had.
Sure, you did hit, and the guy with top set did not spike a boat, but much more often than not this will result in you being on the rail and out of the MTT than it will result in you chipping up.

A lot people in the general forum whine and moan about people who make palys liek this, rightly calling them "maniacs". The fact is, a lot of players make these plays because they do not know any better, or they do not care enough because "it is just a free roll"...

If you are really interested in what would have been a better way to play this, that is really simple to answer:

Fold pre-flop.

You have no "need" to seek chip ups with weak hands way out of position on the depth of money you have at this stage.
You have plenty of time to "wait" for a better hand, or a better situation, to risk your entire tourney "life" on a draw now.
I really do not want to sound overly harsh here, so if you want any clarifiations of why I've written stuff I did here, please ask; I'll be more than happy to expand on the specific "why"s"...

I do totally understand that everyone has the smae level of poker "knowledge".

If you do think part of "good" poker IS gambling like this, and you are not really interested in hearing anything else, well...

Good luck.
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 07:14 AM
(#3)
HohnerBoy's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 27
Wow, i didnt expect that much of a reply for sure. I know this was a maniac move i also knew i was way behind with my hand. I would' ve never called this even in a freeroll tournament. I was playing decent to premium hands only, and i just had that feeling that i have it there. you know that feeling when you just know you will hit? I was a bit worried about that boat too but i was lucky there as well.

I know i made the worst play possible but still thank you on your time to make an analyze.

Thanks
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 08:06 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hohnerboy...

I really did not want to be "rude" so please do not take my reply as such...

The fact is, making plays like those, on just a "feeling", are not really playing good poker...it is playing for "luck".

Luck is something which you cannot control, and sometimes it will happen, sometimes it won't.

If you allow positive results, like the one you saw here, to influence your actions in a game of poker, you will begin to move away from the SKILL aspect of the game. You may well start having your "feelings" more and more often...which will tend to lead to more and more frequent losses.

The skill in poker lies within make decisions which will result in positive expected value as often as possible, and those sorts of decisions ARE controllable. If your decision is solid, and you still lose, well then that is just luck (only bad luck). The key difference is that when your decisions are solid, more often than not your opponent will not catch lucky...

...the same cannot be said when you are relying on luck to win from behind.
 

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