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Duplicate Poker, Hand #1 (and table reads)

View Poll Results: What is your Action? (Please post your reasons for discussion below)
FOLD 1 12.50%
CALL 4 50.00%
Raise (to between 1050 and 1200 to go) 0 0%
Raise (to between 1201 and 1600 to go) 2 25.00%
Raise (to between 1601 and 3000 to go) 0 0%
Raise (to between 3001 and 6200 to go) 0 0%
Raise (to between 6201 and all in to go) 1 12.50%
Voters: 8. You may not vote on this poll

 
Old
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Duplicate Poker, Hand #1 (and table reads) - Sun Jul 31, 2011, 08:15 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Note: What follows is all the info you will need to configure your decisions in the play of the hand.
You will receive information on each of your opponents.
This information is based on PAST PATTERNS, things you may have "picked up on" at your table. Do not "assume" all information is "perfect".
If you feel a vital piece of information about an opponent is "lacking", then please consider your poker reads to be incomplete per that point.

Please consider this an exercise in "role playing", where you are trying your best to put yourself into the situation as presented.
You are to base your play decisions on what you would do in an ACTUAL poker MTT.

Ceratin information about YOU, and your "play" in this event will be "created" as well.
Items such as your financial status will be created so that everyone attempting this exercise will be "equal" in that regard; how you let that finiancial situation effect your decision process is up to you.

Also, information about hands you "played" in between the hands we will review will be created. This is so you can make some judgements about how "aware" Villains at your table may re-act to those past plays in the hand under review. As each "live" person in this exercise may have a particular play style, each of those styles would confer an "image". Since these images may differ widely, again in order to "level" the data that everyone has for use, the interim hands will be made up of certain palys you CANNOT "control".

Situation:

"META GAME" INFO (on You):
You have recently signed a contract with a wealthy Billionaire, whereby he will "stake" you to a $300,000 bank roll for use as Buy In's to MTT across the country. In return, you will pay 60% of all PROFITS (over the buy in, the original BI is "rolled over" for use again) to your "horse". You are obligated to play until you have entred 100 MTT, or until the bank roll has reached $0. Additionally, you will be given a drawing account, consisting of cash over and above your BR amount to pay hotel and travel expenses, a per diem for meals etc of $500, as well as a drawing account of $1000 per week. Any amount spent for these expenses will be deducted from the profits of an event prior to the 60/40 division. Taxes will be paid prior to profit division as well.

You have arrived 3 days ago at the "Mississippi Classic" a $10k BI main event held at the Grand Casino in Tunica Missippi (a fictional event).
Thus far you have taken your 1st week draw of $1000, you have received $1500 in per diem expenses, and you have paid $150 in hotel room expenses. You live in Tunica, so you incurred no travel expenses.

MTT STRUSTURE INFO:
The Blinds Structure is per this link:
http://www.wsop.com/tourney/structuresheets/structsheet_7281.asp?tourneyid=7281&groupid=607

Prize Pool pay outs are 2 times those shown in this link:
http://www.wsop.com/tournaments/payouts.asp?grid=607&tid=7281

There were 928 entrants.
921 players remain.

Blinds = 75/150
Start Stacks = 15,000
Blind levels = 2 hours
Currently in Level 2, with 48 minutes until Level 3.

You have been seated at the same table since the start of the event.
1 player busted out when his KK ran into AA held by the player in currently in Seat 3.
Preflop action went to a 4Bet which was called by Seat 3.
Action on the flop then saw a 5Bet shove by the busted palyer, which was again called by Seat 3.
Seat 3's top set held.

Information you have on the players currently at your table is:

SEAT #1:
Stack: 8100
75 posted in SB
You've tagged this player "Young gun" in your mind.
He is a 20-something hoodie wearing uber-aggro type.

He seems to lack a working knowledge of postion, and he raises near to a standard 2.3 x BB whenever he enters first to act, and generally (about 75% of the time) 3Bets to enter over raises.

His standard C-Bet frequency is quite high, near "certain", and he seems to bet half pot pretty consistently on continuation as an open.
He tends to raise open bets in front of him quite a lot, doing so usually for about 1.5 times the amount of the open bet on the flop.
If he is drawing weakly, or very weak, he tends to fold later streets quite often, and will tend to call only top pair/decent kicker hands+ on the turn (or later).

In the first level he played roughly 30% to 40% of all hands, and generally won small pots, and lost a couple large ones.
Over the last hour or so he has toned down his pot entries somewhat, but is still entering roughly 25% of all hands, regardless of position.
He seems to be a "target" especially for the player in Seat #4, who has been 3Betting quite frequently over the last hour or so whenever YG enters in Middle or Early position.

YG has not spoken a single word during the entire event thus far, and seems to be a very quiet player, except for his aggressive tendencies.

SEAT #2:
Stack: 14100
150 posted in BB
Tom McEvoy, winner of the WSOP ME in 1983.
Mr. McEvoy has not voluntarily put any chips in the pot throughout the entire event.
He has been somewhat quiet, but very polite.
He is a past Main Event winner with a well known reputation of extreme tightness.
Not playing a single hand to this point though is likely to be the result of being extreme "card dead", and not just an effect of this uber-tightness in your opinion.

Mr McEvoy does not indicate any "impatience" however, in your opinion at least.

SEAT #3:
Stack: 30250
You've tagged this player "School Teacher Joe" in your mind.
Not only does he look like a school teacher, middle 30's to early 40's, glasses, slightly balding, and not only is his name Joe (learned through casual chit chat), but he IS a school teacher. Joe has also shown a habit of making comments about whether or not opponents had pot odds to stay in the hand.

Joe doubled up the very first hand of the tourney when he caught AA vs. KK and both he and his opponent flopped a set.
Thereafter Joe has not played more than around 10% to 15% of his hands, and most of those came in position.

His early position entry range is quite "snug", and he opens slightly wider from MP.
He will not call into pots for raises in LP extremely lightly though, even with his large stack, but in small raised multi-way pots, he has shown a tendency to speculate a little bit with suited connectors and small pairs. He does this with calls almost exclusively.
His pre-flop entry raise is always the same amount, making it 3BB to go, plus 1 for each limper, and his C-Bets always tend to be for half the pot.

His post flop play is very stragiht forward, with about 2/3rds C-bet frequency if he has the betting lead, and a reasonable tendency to fold his misses to C-Bets.

Overall, School Teacher Joe plays a very ABC game, both pre flop and post flop, and he is pretty neutral in his agression vs. passivity matrix.

SEAT #4:
Stack: 19900
You've tagged this player "Ivan the Invincable" in your mind.
He is a Russian born player in his late 20's or early 30's, who speaks broken english, and plays a highly aggressive game.

His start standards are generally strong, and he changes gears very well.
He seems to be entering about 15% to 20% of pots, almost always for a raise or 3Bet, even with his weaker holdings (but usually in position on these).
He has exhibited very solid selective aggression skills, and has tended to "target" Young Gun whenever YG enters oop for a raise, and also the blinds of Tom McEvoy to some extent. This is not to say he is "wild by any means; quite the opposite.

To this point, you definately have a "respect" for Ivan's play, and you have been watching quite closely for any leaks you might exploit.
You THINK you've spotted a little bit of a "timing tell" on him in the speed he bets draws for semi bluffs; he seems to bet a little faster on those than on stronger "made" hands. You are not entirely certain on this yet though, and you do not know if he is aware of that "tell" enough to possibly use it as a "reverse tell".

SEAT #5:
EMPTY
(The T.D. has not yet broken any tables, so no table has re-consolidated a player to this seat)

SEAT #6:
Stack: 12750
You've tagged this player "Loose Lou" in your mind.
Lou is a mid 60's man who is chomping on a big ol' Cigar (he cannot light it).
His wife is a 20 something HOT blonde, who is breathlessly watching "her Louey baby" play a poker tournament.
Lou is dressed in expensive, but out-dated clothes, polyester slacks, a silk shirt, and has a thick gold chain nestled in his greying chest hair.
Through talking to him you have learned he is a (seemingly successful) owner of a chain of laundro-mats, who mainly plays $4/$8 and $5/$10 Limit hold 'em back home somewhere on the east coast of the U.S. This is his first "big" MTT, but he has regaled you with his "experience" playing these games out in Vegas, and since he was doing so well, he thought he'd give this "tournament stuff" a try. He feels pretty confident after playing a couple of the weekly $50 buy in events back home.
He strikes you as having a lot of the symptoms of a late mid-life crisis, and he married his wife "Candy" only a year ago.

Lou plays a very loose/passive game, and is entering maybe 40% to 50% of the pots regardless of position.
He does tend to fold the worst hands of his range (maybe half of it) if there is a raise in front of him, but his standard play is to call into a lot of pots.
Lou is also quite the calling station, having never met a gut shot or flush draw he didn't like, and quite frequently calling at LEAST 1 barrel with 2nd pair/any kicker.
His stack would be quite a bit lower than it is now, except he happened to turn a flush against Young gun, and win a 2900 chip pot.
Lou does tend to be somewhat "lucky", having won small pots via a gut shot hit, and rivering a 2 pair, but overall, you do not consider him much of a threat at all.

Seat #7:
Stack: 17900
You've tagged this player "Giggling Monica" in your mind.
Monica is a 20's-something brunette who is pretty cute. She is wearing a low cut top, speaks in a southern accent, and has effected an "aw schucks boys" flirty type attitude at the table. It seems she is trying hard to make it appear that she is new to poker (without necessarily saying so), and "just a girl", but your working opinion is that she is trying a bit TOO hard.

She started off with a pretty snug range, showing down only 2 hands in the first hour (AKs and QQ, both wins), and entering maybe 10% of the hands.
She seems to have started targetting Lou a bit more in the current hour or so, having raised each of the last 3 times he has open limped (none reached show down).

A few minutes ago, you called her 3x raise from MP while holding 99, and saw a flop of KQ4 rainbow. She C-Bet 2/3rds the pot, and you let your hand go.
A 2/3rds type C-Bet appears to be pretty "standard" for her, and a couple of times she has even C-Bet for full pot. If Lou is not opening the pot, she is still playing right around a 10% range, but if he is in, she is playing a lot more than that right now.

Seat #8:
Stack: 13600
You've tagged this player "Party Bob" in your mind.
Bob has been drinking a little bit at the table, and you roughly estimate he has had 5 beers since the MTT began.
He is not drunk, but he has definatly playing a bit "buzzed" the last half hour or so.
Bob is a late 30's male, wearing a polo shirt and nice slacks. He has been flirting with Monica the whole way; she seems to be encouraging it so far.

Bob has been pretty ABC in his play, folding his misses and betting his good hits, but he does seem to be a little on the loose side (roughly 30% pots entered).
He has shown down a pretty wierd range, including hands like Q4o, J2s, and 98o (played form MP vs an EP raise), as well as AQs, JJ, and AA once.

Seat #9:
Stack: 18400
YOU.
You started playing the event pretty tightly, entering only on premium holdings, and for the first hour and a half you only showed down AKo and JJ.

Lately you have been increasing your 3Bet tendencies a little, especially against Lou, Young Gun, and to a lesser extent School Teacher Joe. In this past hour or so, you did show down T9s that you 3Bet Lou on (squeezing out Bob, who called Lou's open limp); you turned a straight, and won a decent little pot. It may be that your paly here is what started Monica on raising Lou's limps.

The rest of your wins consisted of take down without showdown, so the table probably does not have much info on you, except you are a pretty TAG player, and that you seem to know your way around a card table.

THESE ARE YOR READS!
(note: a lot of these are un-necessary for the first hand we will play out. But later on, different players will be in action on other hand, so I provide them all to give you "maximum feel" for your table.)

THE ACTION:

SB = Seat #1, Young Gun, posts 75 (8025 behind)
BB = Seat #2, Tom McEoy, posts 150 (13950 behind)
BTN = YOU

Seat #3: FOLDS
Seat #4: FOLDS
Seat #6: Lou LIMPS for 150, grumbling something inaudibly, and forcefully pushes his chips into the pot.
Seat #7: Monica glances at Bob quickly, smiles and gives a little giggle, and RAISES, making it 600 to go.
Seat #8: Bob says with a bit of a laugh, "ok honey, you can him it!", and FOLDS
Seat #9: You look down and see AhTh...what do you do?
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 08:31 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Standard call. If you 3bet, it shouldn't be for value, even if you think Monica is isolating loosely. You'd really be bluffing, and you'd probably fold out anything that either she or Lou happens to have that's even close to a dog to your ATs. If Monica is getting out of line, punish her by flatting with your suited ace. You have nut flush potential, broadway potential, and very possibly a dominating hand at the moment. That's too much equity to waste by bluffing, so just call.

As a side note, you should be calling with the intent to fold if McEvoy 3bets. If he calls, you should be especially vigilant for the remainder of the hand. If the young maniac (a.k.a. Panicky?) enters the pot for a raise, things become trickier because ATs doesn't do well against a standard 3betting range (which he may or may not have if he's been calming down lately), so you would definitely take some time to reevaluate if he entered for a raise.

As another side note, I would also be confused about what the heck Bob said to Monica as he folded. Slurring his words already?

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Jul 31, 2011 at 08:34 AM..
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 08:47 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
yup...slurring

nice start.
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 08:50 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Somebody get a bucket.
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 10:14 AM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am not a big fan of limping especially from the button but I need to think this through before I finally decide what to do. Definitely not folding but wary of the young gun to act in the SB. He enters 75% of the time and reraises to bets: What about his actions to a reraise???

I would be tempted to isolate with this hand and put Bob and Monica out who are targeting the young gun as I think they would both fold. I need to know the likely reaction of the young gun before i would take this line because I don't want to be going all in on A,10...

Also wary of McEvoy who might make a stand as well.

Come back to it later.

TC

Ok after some thought I am going to go with a reraise to 1350.

My reasoning is as follows: McEvoy will only call or raise with a premium holding and although the Young Gun plays out of position he has toned things down so would be wary of the reraise. That leaves Lou, who may call, considering the earlier run in with him, and Monica who would almost certainly fold considering I laid my nines down to her earlier. I think she is raising light and opened up her range to target Lou.

A,10 does not play well if dominated and does not flop but a scary/wet board, could be to my advantage, as is the possible flush possibilities.

Those are my thoughts but I may well come to believe that I have overvalued A,10 suited. We will see.

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sun Jul 31, 2011 at 11:19 AM..
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 06:02 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Note:

I am voting "go all in", simply so I can see the results tus far, and how many are voting.

If there is only 1 ovote for that, it is me, jsut so I can see the poll...not because I'd go all in!
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 07:52 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
In about 8 or 10 hours, I will check the results of the voting.

We will then move forward based upon the decision that has "won" the voting.

all other decisions which have a vote in their favor will be posted as well...but our future decisions in this hand will only consider the majority's choice.
 
Old
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 10:58 PM
(#8)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I like the call, probably cause i'm kind of a nit, I like to see a flop before committing a lot of my chips. With only the blinds behind, I'm hoping to see a flop with just a call, keeping the pot small in the event that I miss the flop.

I'm folding to a raise from either blind, I don't think my hand is enough to call a 3-bet.
 
Old
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 12:22 AM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
I voted fold.

I'm looking as much at the info that you're making available on the players "tics" and tendencies here as I am the type of cards they've been playing so far (about 50/50 consideration to both factors...).

Here are my reasons for the fold.

1. No one has mentioned the tourney structure yet. Hey,it's 15K starting stacks,I'm up better than 20% of my starting stack already so I can afford to be selective,very selective. The levels are 2 hours and we're just barely halfway into level 2. Only 7 runners have peeled off a little over 3 hours in. This is deep stack play to me.

Now you could argue that this is more reason to maybe flat here for "only" 600 chips (or better yet 4 of my 122+ BB's at the current level---which has 48 minutes left). Yes that's a valid line to take but the flip side of that coin is you have to be thinking mega-hard in a game like this about what happens post-flop. And this hand in this situation could end up costing me more than those first 4 BB's very easily.

2. Why could it be costly? Well let's profile who's in and who's left.

Lou: Given what his table banter has been I think we could be looking at a player feigning weakness with his action here---open limps OOP,grumbling and putting his chips in forcefully (Who forcefully limps and thinks it looks strong?It looks more like you're thinking "I'm an azz for putting chips in with this hand".) He may think he's Teddy KGB or something and is trying a bear trap with a big hand.

I also really,really don't like his personality profile in this spot. I want him in a hand with me when I know he's got second best and I'm way out in front in first. He's a station maybe,but his off the table personality type is unstable (the clothes and bling,the trophy wife) and he's EXACTLY the type that the "impulse" shove to show his little Candy that daddy has a set could be coming any second now. I'm not looking to be in that hand with him and I have A10s.

Monica: She's making her normal play so far. So that means post-flop we can almost guarantee the c-bet is coming.

She's shown down twice with hands that crush my A10s (AKs and QQ). She's 4x betting from the hi-jack and has only played 10% of her hands. That tells me I'm likely up against the top end of her range here,which means most of my good flops are either good for her as well or (if I hit a 10) are only keeping me behind with 2 streets yet to come. So I think my flops that play against her likely c-bet,given her perceived range,are very limited and quite of few of those "good" flops for me may very well be terrible.


Young gun: He's a player I want to be targeting in ISO spots,not coming behind on an open limp and then a 4x bet raise. And if he plays back at Monica (and he certainly could given his tendencies),and I'm right about her perceived range I could very well find myself in the middle of a pre-flop bidding war holding A-10s. No thanks.


Tom McEvoy: He raises and I'm mucking.

Period,end of story.


So that's my take...I'm mostly concerned that Monica is very possibly playing the top of her range here,and if she is my hand is in bad shape against those holdings. And there aren't a lot of hands that would hit me and not her if I'm correct so what do I do on her likely c-bet after the flop? And THAT'S assuming I connect on the flop. If I miss it's basically auto-muck time.

Just not a great spot here,and given that I'm making positive headway in the tourney I'm not looking to start spewing off chips in this spot.
 
Old
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 12:35 AM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I am not a big fan of limping especially from the button but I need to think this through before I finally decide what to do. Definitely not folding but wary of the young gun to act in the SB. He enters 75% of the time and reraises to bets: What about his actions to a reraise???

I would be tempted to isolate with this hand and put Bob and Monica out who are targeting the young gun as I think they would both fold. I need to know the likely reaction of the young gun before i would take this line because I don't want to be going all in on A,10...

Also wary of McEvoy who might make a stand as well.

Come back to it later.

TC

Ok after some thought I am going to go with a reraise to 1350.

My reasoning is as follows: McEvoy will only call or raise with a premium holding and although the Young Gun plays out of position he has toned things down so would be wary of the reraise. That leaves Lou, who may call, considering the earlier run in with him, and Monica who would almost certainly fold considering I laid my nines down to her earlier. I think she is raising light and opened up her range to target Lou.

A,10 does not play well if dominated and does not flop but a scary/wet board, could be to my advantage, as is the possible flush possibilities.

Those are my thoughts but I may well come to believe that I have overvalued A,10 suited. We will see.

TC
What would have happened if we had all voted in favor of this:
(note: I had created this info BEFORE votes were in, using the range of raise sizes...so saying raise to 1400 or 1300 would have given the same info...)

We raise on the button to 1350.
Pot = 1350 + 975 = 2325
Young Gun mucks.

Tom McEvoy glances over at us for made 2 beats, then mucks as well.

Loose Lou thinks for a few seconds.
Candy on the rail cries out, "oooo, be careful Louey!"
Lou grumbles again, and calls.
Pot = 3525

Monica studies us for about 10 seconds (quite a long time live), then mucks with a somewhat annoyed frown.

Flop comes Ad 3h 9h...

.......


But this did NOT happen, as it only got 1 vote.

I am curious what you all think about this...do we think it is a "favorable" outcome for our 3bet to get it HU versus just Lou?

Obviously, we "like" this flop quite a bit.
What would we tend to do if Lou checks it to us?
What about if he leads weak, say for like 1000 to 1400 or so?
What if he leads STRONG? Say in the neighborhood of 2k+?

We are not going to follow the actions on this line all the way through to the end, but some discussion on the EFFECTS of this decision, and the subesquent actions might lead to good thoughts...

I will instead open a new thread, with a new poll, to continue with our "majority" line...

Ok?

Last edited by JDean; Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 12:40 AM..
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 12:46 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
I voted fold.

I'm looking as much at the info that you're making available on the players "tics" and tendencies here as I am the type of cards they've been playing so far (about 50/50 consideration to both factors...).

Here are my reasons for the fold.

1. No one has mentioned the tourney structure yet. Hey,it's 15K starting stacks,I'm up better than 20% of my starting stack already so I can afford to be selective,very selective. The levels are 2 hours and we're just barely halfway into level 2. Only 7 runners have peeled off a little over 3 hours in. This is deep stack play to me.

Now you could argue that this is more reason to maybe flat here for "only" 600 chips (or better yet 4 of my 122+ BB's at the current level---which has 48 minutes left). Yes that's a valid line to take but the flip side of that coin is you have to be thinking mega-hard in a game like this about what happens post-flop. And this hand in this situation could end up costing me more than those first 4 BB's very easily.

2. Why could it be costly? Well let's profile who's in and who's left.

Lou: Given what his table banter has been I think we could be looking at a player feigning weakness with his action here---open limps OOP,grumbling and putting his chips in forcefully (Who forcefully limps and thinks it looks strong?It looks more like you're thinking "I'm an azz for putting chips in with this hand".) He may think he's Teddy KGB or something and is trying a bear trap with a big hand.

I also really,really don't like his personality profile in this spot. I want him in a hand with me when I know he's got second best and I'm way out in front in first. He's a station maybe,but his off the table personality type is unstable (the clothes and bling,the trophy wife) and he's EXACTLY the type that the "impulse" shove to show his little Candy that daddy has a set could be coming any second now. I'm not looking to be in that hand with him and I have A10s.

Monica: She's making her normal play so far. So that means post-flop we can almost guarantee the c-bet is coming.

She's shown down twice with hands that crush my A10s (AKs and QQ). She's 4x betting from the hi-jack and has only played 10% of her hands. That tells me I'm likely up against the top end of her range here,which means most of my good flops are either good for her as well or (if I hit a 10) are only keeping me behind with 2 streets yet to come. So I think my flops that play against her likely c-bet,given her perceived range,are very limited and quite of few of those "good" flops for me may very well be terrible.


Young gun: He's a player I want to be targeting in ISO spots,not coming behind on an open limp and then a 4x bet raise. And if he plays back at Monica (and he certainly could given his tendencies),and I'm right about her perceived range I could very well find myself in the middle of a pre-flop bidding war holding A-10s. No thanks.


Tom McEvoy: He raises and I'm mucking.

Period,end of story.


So that's my take...I'm mostly concerned that Monica is very possibly playing the top of her range here,and if she is my hand is in bad shape against those holdings. And there aren't a lot of hands that would hit me and not her if I'm correct so what do I do on her likely c-bet after the flop? And THAT'S assuming I connect on the flop. If I miss it's basically auto-muck time.

Just not a great spot here,and given that I'm making positive headway in the tourney I'm not looking to start spewing off chips in this spot.
This line also got us just 1 vote, so we will not follow it to its conclusion (although I do have info on what would have happened).

Obviously we fold.

Young Gun then RAISES, making it 2200 to go.
Tom McEvoy mucks.
Lou grumbles, and then mucks.
Monica stares down Young Gun for a few seconds, then she mucks as well.

Young Gun picks up a 975 pot.

Any thoughts on what RANGE YG might have played, what range Monica may have held, and what Lou may have had?

I will be honest, Pip'ster's line is defninately "safe", and there is no reason to tangle in the very early stages of an MTT that is superbly deep stacked like this one.

But if we recognize that at some point we are likely to be needing to play hands like these from position, even with action like this ahead of us, those sorts of thoughts are valid for our LATER choices...

thoughts?

RESULT For US: 0 chip loss/win
 
Old
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 12:54 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
the MAJORITY LINE sees us CALLING the raise by Monica.

This is what then happens:

We call the raise to 600.
Pot = 1575

Young Gun looks at his hand.
He then Glances at us, and then at Monica.
He looks back at his hand, and mucks.

Tom McEvoy glances at us for 2 beats, then folds.

Loose Lou thinks for a few seconds.
Candy on the rail cries out, "oooo, be careful Louey!"
Lou grumbles again, and calls.

We take the flop...

FLOP: Ad 3h 9h

Lou checks.

Monica glances left (at us), and announces: "I Bet".
She then moves 1000 chips into the middle.
Pot = 2575

What do we do?

NOTE: I will put this info, as well as a new poll to vote on your choice into another thread.
That thread will be titled: "Duplicate Poker: Hand #1, THE FLOP 1"

Please post your thoughts there about what we should do, and leave this thread as the place to discuss the actions the majority did NOT decide...

thanks.
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 06:53 AM
(#13)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
What would have happened if we had all voted in favor of this:
(note: I had created this info BEFORE votes were in, using the range of raise sizes...so saying raise to 1400 or 1300 would have given the same info...)

We raise on the button to 1350.
Pot = 1350 + 975 = 2325
Young Gun mucks.

Tom McEvoy glances over at us for made 2 beats, then mucks as well.

Loose Lou thinks for a few seconds.
Candy on the rail cries out, "oooo, be careful Louey!"
Lou grumbles again, and calls.
Pot = 3525

Monica studies us for about 10 seconds (quite a long time live), then mucks with a somewhat annoyed frown.

Flop comes Ad 3h 9h...

.......


But this did NOT happen, as it only got 1 vote.

I am curious what you all think about this...do we think it is a "favorable" outcome for our 3bet to get it HU versus just Lou? Yes

Obviously, we "like" this flop quite a bit.
What would we tend to do if Lou checks it to us? Raise
What about if he leads weak, say for like 1000 to 1400 or so?Reraise, he has part of the board but we are still likely ahead
What if he leads STRONG? Say in the neighborhood of 2k+?I am not sure TBH; he likely has a set and i really do not know if reraising, calling or even folding is the best play

We are not going to follow the actions on this line all the way through to the end, but some discussion on the EFFECTS of this decision, and the subesquent actions might lead to good thoughts...

I will instead open a new thread, with a new poll, to continue with our "majority" line...

Ok?

Thanks JD. Put my thoughts in red

TC
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 07:01 AM
(#14)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
This line also got us just 1 vote, so we will not follow it to its conclusion (although I do have info on what would have happened).

Obviously we fold.

Young Gun then RAISES, making it 2200 to go.
Tom McEvoy mucks.
Lou grumbles, and then mucks.
Monica stares down Young Gun for a few seconds, then she mucks as well.

Young Gun picks up a 975 pot.

Any thoughts on what RANGE YG might have playedhigh suited connectors or high pair 10s or better, what range Monica may have heldA7 plus possibly, AK, AQ , and what Lou may have had?Pck pair upto 9s

I will be honest, Pip'ster's line is defninately "safe", and there is no reason to tangle in the very early stages of an MTT that is superbly deep stacked like this one.

But if we recognize that at some point we are likely to be needing to play hands like these from position, even with action like this ahead of us, those sorts of thoughts are valid for our LATER choices...

thoughts?

RESULT For US: 0 chip loss/win
The safe line is another possibility but playing only premium hands lessens the likelihood of winning tourneys and we want to win this tourney or run very deep. So we have to be willing to play hands like A,10 suited in position and rely on outplaying our opponents post flop.

TC
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 12:56 PM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
TTC:

Do you think, given the fact that the vote was in favor of a CALL, and in that dynamic we did NOT see YG raising, that he really has pp TT+?
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 01:42 PM
(#16)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Opps I did not think of that, high suited connectors then or maybe even just suited connectors.

Enjoying it anyway JD

TC
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 05:39 PM
(#17)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Every hand will see the Villains holding the SAME HANDS, egardless of the actions we choose.

So for instance...

In a hand if villain 1 has AA and limps, there would be a VASTLY different pre flop action depending upon if we call, or raise.

But regardless of what he did pre flop, the villain will use "his/her" knowledge to get the most out of their AA thereafter, based on what WE did...

all that stuff has been worked out and written down so it is pre determined.
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 05:46 PM
(#18)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks JD,

I sort of realised that after trying to run ten different scenarios in my head that the hands in each scenario were the same. I am a bit slow sometimes

TC
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 10:54 AM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
I'm 3-betting here, I don't like flatting in this spot tbh. The major benefits of a 3b:

-For value vs. Lou who is limping in with and will call with worse out of position.
-Extract Monica from the hand, as she is likely opening light and won't call a 3b out of position
-Prevents us from getting squeezed out by young gun, who is squeeze happy, and we really can't call a 3b ourselves with AT.
-If we run into a strong hand, we have a super easy fold to a 4B

Flatting isn't terrible, but the reasons I don't like it in this spot are:

-It sets up a squeeze by young gun which we can't call.
-It leaves Monica in control of the hand
-It forces us to mostly flop something or fold on the flop
-When we do flop something, it will often be difficult to play well as our most likely way to hit the flop will be 1 pair... and either our pair will be marginal (T) or our kicker will be marginal. If we get HU with Lou in position, it will be much easier to play the rest of this hand well.

@topthecat, idk why you are saying you'd be wary of McEvoy, that makes no sense... he's a super nit, he won't be involved in this pot without a super strong hand, and if he does get involved his hand will be face up and it will be crushing AT. We should be wary of young gun squeezing if we flat, as he may well do it light and we can't really call a 3B squeeze.
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 11:10 AM
(#20)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I am not a big fan of limping especially from the button but I need to think this through before I finally decide what to do. Definitely not folding but wary of the young gun to act in the SB. He enters 75% of the time and reraises to bets: What about his actions to a reraise???

I would be tempted to isolate with this hand and put Bob and Monica out who are targeting the young gun as I think they would both fold. I need to know the likely reaction of the young gun before i would take this line because I don't want to be going all in on A,10...

Also wary of McEvoy who might make a stand as well.

Come back to it later.

TC

Ok after some thought I am going to go with a reraise to 1350.

My reasoning is as follows: McEvoy will only call or raise with a premium holding
and although the Young Gun plays out of position he has toned things down so would be wary of the reraise. That leaves Lou, who may call, considering the earlier run in with him, and Monica who would almost certainly fold considering I laid my nines down to her earlier. I think she is raising light and opened up her range to target Lou.

A,10 does not play well if dominated and does not flop but a scary/wet board, could be to my advantage, as is the possible flush possibilities.

Those are my thoughts but I may well come to believe that I have overvalued A,10 suited. We will see.

TC
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
@topthecat, idk why you are saying you'd be wary of McEvoy, that makes no sense... he's a super nit, he won't be involved in this pot without a super strong hand, and if he does get involved his hand will be face up and it will be crushing AT. We should be wary of young gun squeezing if we flat, as he may well do it light and we can't really call a 3B squeeze.
Well Dave, I never had the pleasure of playing with or watching McEvoy; in fact I know little or nothing about him only what JD posted on the thread. I voted for a reraise to 1350,(not sure if that is a 3 bet). I was wary exactly because he is a nit and if he had called or reraised we were probably crushed. I think it makes sense to be wary of a nit who has to act after you.

I think my line was pretty much the same as you are advocating, I was just trying to put my thought processes down in writing and show how I came to my conclusion, which I think is the point of the process.

I apologize if my going through that process did not make sense to you or anyone else, but as long as it ended up in me making the best decision, I am not going to get too unduly concerned about it. You can see now why i need the clock so much in MTTs

Thanks for your input

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 11:43 AM..
 

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