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Shoving a draw

 
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Shoving a draw - Sun Jul 31, 2011, 02:34 PM
(#1)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello .

I would like to know if this is a good play to be making , in this situation I assumed my opponents min raise in the blind was indicative of a not so premium hand and with the number of outs I had on the flop my odds of improving my hand to a winning pair or flush were 0.85:1 , perhaps with a little fold equity aswell , is this a reasonably standard play on my part .






The result was not what I wanted of course , however I'm trying to be less nitty and identify more +EV situations for long term gain . Typically I have been playing super tight & only making serious moves with the nuts or near as . Should I be confident of making this type of odds on attack a winning play in the future . Your feedback will be appreciated .

Thankyou .

Last edited by JARGON1977; Sun Jul 31, 2011 at 02:37 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 02:56 PM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I think the opponent made a min three bet raise (not sure if that is the correct terminology) but any type of reraise means he is likely to have something. I thought a low pair was likely. The flop is really uncoordinated for a raising hand like A, KQJ, although you did hit the nut flush draw. His bet on the flop also tells you he has something and he is betting for value.

I am not sure if I like the reraise after the villian has shown such strength. It would be good if someone could outline the odds and probabilities but I don't think he gave you the odds to draw and your reraise may have gave him the odds to call. I am not too hot on that stuff myself but it would be good to know exactly how to calculate it.

In any case I think you are drawing quite thin with two streets to go, but I could be wrong.

As well as your starting hands you need to start classify opponents and putting them on a range when they bet. That allows you to make better decisions especially tricky ones.

I am sure someone will come along that will explain all the stuff more properly than I can.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 04:26 PM
(#3)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
The way I seen it , I had 2 overcards the AQ that could get me to top pair & the nut flush draw - a total of 15 outs flop to river giving me odds of 0.85:1 of improving my hand . By putting him all in I stake $1.36 and if he calls , which he has every right to do , the pot becomes $3.47 giving me pot odds of 2.5:1 with a 0.85:1 chance of improving my hand . Therefore I believe it may be a +EV initiative - profitable long term .

I think 2 overcards and a flush draw on the flop against a lower pair makes me favourite for the hand .
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 07:33 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
This is a pretty "standard" aggressive play really, so long as you can assume both your A and Q will be live outs for you a lot of the time versus his range.

The villian did 3Bet pre, and you flatted that. This means he can put you on a big pp or big Ace range from EP in most cases. When the flop comes all small (9 high), then about half your range has missed, and about half has value equal to or better than his. Pretty much the same can be said for HIS range too.

A lot of times the villain is going to C-Bet that sort of range. The SIZE of his C-Bet, 50c into a 75c pot, seems to indicate he is NOT on a 2pr+ hand very often at all unless this vill is very advanced, thinks you too are advanced, and is "leveling" with his decisions; all in all a rare circumstance at a micro table. If he were on a 2 pair+ hand, he may well attempt a C/R, or a smaller C-Bet to "massage" more money out of callers with "just" a flush draw on board. Obviously though, this depends upon the villain...

So after his C-Bet in this spot I do think the pot was "big enough" to make a semi bluff jam worthwhile even if all it does is cause folds.

You also can suspect that a lot of time Villain is C-betting big aces, and is NOT jsut on over pairs (or any pair) in this spot. If he may fold those quite a bit, that makes your player even better.

You have outs to the nut hand right now, so you are not drawing dead (or nearly so) to ANY hand he may hold.

So all in all, this is a risk/reward play certainly, and one which works best against players who CAN fold an AK "miss". But it is hardly "maniacal".
 
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Sun Jul 31, 2011, 07:53 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
I think 2 overcards and a flush draw on the flop against a lower pair makes me favourite for the hand .
You couldn't see their cards at the time. Don't make the mistake of justifying your play by using information you didn't have at the time.

I think the flop shove is fine in this spot, mostly because your stack was so incredibly short. Had you been three times deeper, we'd be in a different situation. Also, had the draw been different, such as two overs and a gutshot, then this play might have been less good. As played, you did fine on the flop.

However, shoving preflop would also have been good. By only calling preflop, you are giving yourself room to fold on (for example) 3-flush boards where you have two overs and no draw. You should never really call preflop then fold, so rejamming pre would be the typical standard pay here.
 

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