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duplicate Poker: Hand #1, THE FLOP (pt 1)

View Poll Results: What do we do now?
FOLD 0 0%
CALL Monica's bet of 1000 6 75.00%
Raise Monica's bet, making it 2000 (min raise) to 2499. 0 0%
Raise Monica's bet, making it 2500 to 3500 1 12.50%
Raise Monica's bet, making it 3501 to 6000 0 0%
Raise Monica's bet, making it 6001 to all in 1 12.50%
Voters: 8. You may not vote on this poll

 
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duplicate Poker: Hand #1, THE FLOP (pt 1) - Mon Aug 01, 2011, 01:00 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
(for information on the precceding actions in this hand, and to "catch up", plz see the thread here: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...nd-table-reads) )
the MAJORITY LINE sees us CALLING the raise by Monica.

This is what then happens:

We call the raise to 600.
Pot = 1575

Young Gun looks at his hand.
He then Glances at us, and then at Monica.
He looks back at his hand, and mucks.

Tom McEvoy glances at us for 2 beats, then folds.

Loose Lou thinks for a few seconds.
Candy on the rail cries out, "oooo, be careful Louey!"
Lou grumbles again, and calls.

We take the flop...

FLOP: Ad 3h 9h

Lou checks.

Monica glances left (at us), and announces: "I Bet".
She then moves 1000 chips into the middle.
Pot = 2575

What do we do?

Last edited by JDean; Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 09:41 PM..
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 05:41 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think a call or a raise are both okay, but if we call, then we might be able to trap Lou. In doing so, we would give ourselves better odds to hit our nut draw, and we would give ourselves a better chance to stack/double through two people instead of zero or one. In addition, we can keep bluffs in Monica's range, whereas if we raise, she folds them all.

If we raise, I think we only get action from better aces and hands that we cannot profitably get all-in against (e.g. a set). Therefore, I think calling is best.
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 06:44 AM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I voted for a call as well but for different reasons.

Lou checked without grumbling so he hit this board in some way. A less experienced CS might raise with part of the board but if Lou hit a set he would slow play us.

I have Monica's range as A7 plus and she could even have two pair but she is more likely to have the A with a high heart kicker or broadway hearts.

I think we could be behind both but with the nut flush draw so raising would be wrong as they will both likely call or reraise in that event.

The one thing we should be wary of is a paired board of any description on the turn.

TC

I await with interest whether Lou will just call or raise following his check because he will be wary of the flush draws on board
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 09:42 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Next step will be revealed in approximately 6 hours...

Any other thoughts, comments, or votes?
 
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Mon Aug 01, 2011, 11:16 PM
(#5)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I would call, from the reads it seems that Monica is C betting a ton here, doesn't make sense to drive the hands that we beat out of the pot. Also by just calling we allow Lou good odds to call as well as and keep Monica in if they were holding a worse flush draw, if that were the case it would be a disaster to drive them out now.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 12:20 AM
(#6)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
I'd also advocate a call.

Right now there's not a great deal ahead of us, 3 sets, Ace better kicker and A3 A9. We have the draw at the nut flush so I'd be inclined to call in order to give Lou incentive to stay in, if he goes out anyway we can always looks the turn to try and extract value from Monica.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 01:47 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
5 for a call, 1 for a raise.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 08:46 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Since there was only 1 vote for a raise to between 2500 and 3500, we will not follow that to conclusion. What would have happened if that were the majority option is:

We RAISE Monica, making it 3000 to go (assuming the amount, there is not clear indication in the posts who said raise). Pot = 4575.

Lou thinks for a while, hems and haws a bit, then mucks.

Monica stares at us for at least 10 seconds, and goes into the tank.
She counts down her stack.
She then calls.

Pot = 6575

TURN: Td

Monica checkly checks.

....

This did NOT happen though.

Had we taken this line, what do e think of the "result"?
Do we think we are STILL "behind" Monica?
Do we think we are AHEAD of Monica?

What range do you think Lou had?
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 08:50 AM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
We elect to CALL by majority vote...


We CALL.
Pot = 3575.

Lou hems and haws a little bit.
He licks his lips, and looks over at us, and at Monica.
He then calls.
Pot = 4575.

We see Monica frown a little bit, and begin to stare directly at the pot.

TURN: Td

Lou checks.

Monica looks toward us quickly, then checks as well.

What do WE Do now?

(I will start a new thread...)
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 11:14 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Easy call.

We are ahead of the majority of both their ranges (and we have a nice little back up plan with the nut flush draw against the small parts of their ranges we're behind). Raising will only serve to fold out the more marginal hands in Lou's range, and most of Monica's range which we're crushing. If we are behind now though, raising will often get us re-raised and put us in a bad spot with such a nice draw. Keep their ranges wide, keep the fish (lou) in the pot peeling light to maximize value.

The only real big benefit to a raise imo would be IF Monica happened to hold a flush draw (extremely unlikely) AND she would over-play it and get all in on the flop (also unlikely). Those two if's combined are a pretty big longshot imo.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 10:05 AM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Bump for ed or whoever..
 

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