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Duplicate Poker: Hand #1, The Turn (pt 2)

View Poll Results: What do we do on this turn card?
CHECK 4 40.00%
Bet: 150 to 1525 1 10.00%
Bet: 1526 to 2000 1 10.00%
Bet: 2001 to 2450 1 10.00%
Bet: 2451 to 4000 2 20.00%
Bet: 4001 to 6000 0 0%
Bet 6001 to ALL IN 1 10.00%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker: Hand #1, The Turn (pt 2) - Tue Aug 02, 2011, 08:54 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
(To catch up with the actions that happened before this, please see threads here:
First part, plus table reads: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...nd-table-reads)
The Flop Action: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...THE-FLOP-(pt-1) )

We elect to CALL by majority vote...


We CALL.
Pot = 3575.

Lou hems and haws a little bit.
He licks his lips, and looks over at us, and at Monica.
He then calls.
Pot = 4575.

We see Monica frown a little bit, and begin to stare directly at the pot.

TURN: Td

Lou checks.

Monica looks toward us quickly, then checks as well.

What do WE Do now?

Last edited by JDean; Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 08:58 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 11:04 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Based on the earlier info that Lou would have folded to a raise and that Monica (putting her on A , K/Q/J but she could have pocket 10s) would have called I am convinced we are now ahead with two pair and that Lou only has a small pair and not a set.

We could check and take the free card but now I feel we must raise for value believing we may have the strongest hand and draws to the nut flush and a full house. Could you post up what the other two players and we have behind at this point before I decide whether checking or raising is best?

Cheers

TC
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 12:19 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I think we are in a way ahead or way behind spot here. although our two pr. is probably good,i think a check here affords us to realize our full equity in the hand for nada .and with us being in pos. we can see better where we stand after they act on the river. but if the board pairs with uor suit and someone jams we're in a bit of a tricky spot. I still say a check is best because if we bet here are we gonna get called by worse?..... I doubt it. My .02

Great idea for a thread JD!

I think monicas frown and stare are possibly reverse tells as she's not near as dingy as she would have everyone believe. I put her on a likely set

Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 03:08 PM.. Reason: Added a lil more insight
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 02:05 PM
(#4)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Monica has 16,300, Lou has 11,600 and we have 16,800. I vote check here, both to disguise the strength of our hand and as pot control. Top two is a very good hand, but far from the nuts. If we raise here, and Monica or Lou come over the top then we have a very difficult situation. Either of them could be slowplaying trips (33, 99 or TT), or even AA, though this is unlikely.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 02:40 PM
(#5)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
At this point I think we are way ahead, I want to get value from my top two pair and build the pot right here so I vote to bet, id make it about 60% of the pot. There are a ton of hands that can call us here that we crush, all aces, worse flush draws, worse 2 pairs, the only hands were worried about are sets. Lou is a calling station I think hes probably calling a weak Ace maybe even chasing a flush draw, Its possible he has 33 or 99 but that's a small % of his range here. "We see Monica frown a little bit, and begin to stare directly at the pot." Looks like Monica just bricked her KhQh, Im putting her on a flush draw and I want to charge it.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 03:05 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks for that Joy.

I did a post explaining my actions but it disappeared when i posted it

I think we are ahead as well but I do not want to chase away the action with a big raise so I put in a small bet to get Lou to call and give Monica odds to call.

I do not think Monica has Aces, she would not fold Aces preflop, tens are possible, but only if she thinks we are misrepresenting the A and drawing the flush. Why bet an A flop to the original raiser if you don't hold an A at least so I still put her on A high Kicker, or A with 9 or 3? She could even have pockets 9s or 3s and I am still wary of that.

Lou maybe has a pair at best, maybe connectors like 78 or JQ and he would fold to a big bet and I want him along for the ride too. He does not have a set because in the scenario where we reraised the flop he folded. Monica called our reraise which is worrying but we need to start getting value.

If we hit the heart I think we are safe as long as the board does not pair. If we hit a diamond bugger. If we are reraised bugger. If they both fold I am happy enough. Optimum scenario is that they both call and we hit that heart on the turn.

TC
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 08:53 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think that if you're checking, you're playing scared, which we all know I hate. We have two pair and we're still drawing to the nuts, and you guys don't want to play this aggressively? Especially given that the other two players are both expected to have wide ranges here? I think that's clearly missed value.

The problem is, unless we give either villain credit for being able to make bold bluffs, then I don't think we can stand a raise, so this might be a bet/fold. Unless they raise, though, we should be valuetowning this all day.
 
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Tue Aug 02, 2011, 11:36 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
As of now, voting stands:

4 in favor of a CHECK
1 in favor of a small bet (150 to 1525)
2 in favor of a medium/large size bet (2451 to 4000)
1 in favor of a medium/small sized bet (1526 to 2000)
0 for a medium sized bet (2001 to 2450_

Any other votes?

Any other clarifications on the sizing the people who chose to bet would choose?

I will post the next update in approximately 2 to 3 hrs.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 03:11 AM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ok, so CHECK Wins...
first, let's look at the other results...

(Small Bet)
We bet 1000
Pot = 5575
Lou takes quite a bit of time thinking.
He counts his chips down, and looks at the pot.
It appears he is trying to count the pot.
After about 2 minutes, he calls 1000.
Pot = 6575

Monica takes some time to think about things too, and then she calls as well.
Pot = 7575
River comes 5h.

Lou smiles quickly, then loudly announces, "I bet 3500!" and laughs a little bit.
Monica scowls, then folds.
Action is on you...
...but this is NOT what happened.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 03:13 AM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Also, this option did not happen, as it got only 1 vote.
(Medium small bet)
We bet 1700
Pot = 6275
Lou takes quite a bit of time thinking.
He counts his chips down, and looks at the pot.
It appears he is trying to count the pot.
After about 2 minutes, he calls 1700.
Pot = 7975

Monica takes some time to think about things too, and then she FOLDS.
Pot = 7975
River comes 5h.

Lou smiles quickly, then loudly announces, "I bet 4000!" and laughs a little bit.
Action is on you...
...but this is NOT what happened.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 03:19 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Also, this option did not happen, as it got only 1 vote.
(Medium Large bet)
We bet 3000
Pot = 7575
Lou takes quite a bit of time thinking.
He counts his chips down, and looks at the pot.
It appears he is trying to count the pot.
After about 2 minutes, he calls 3000.
Pot = 10075

Monica takes some time to think about things too, and then she FOLDS.
Pot = 10075
River comes 5h.

Lou smiles quickly, then loudly announces, "I bet! ALL IN!" and laughs a little bit while puching his last 8160 into the pot.
Pot = 18235
Action is on you...
...but this is NOT what happened.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 03:24 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
What DOES happen is...

WE CHECK.

River comes 5h.

Pot = 4575

Lou smiles a bit to himself, then announces "I bet", and moves 3000 chips into the pot.

Monica groans a little.
She actually says almost inaudibly "How can I fold this?"
She hesitates, then does, indeed muck.

Action is back on us...what do WE do now?

Please note, this will be moved to a new, and final thread for this hand.
Please post your actions, and your votes, on that thread.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 01:20 PM
(#13)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I think that if you're checking, you're playing scared, which we all know I hate. We have two pair and we're still drawing to the nuts, and you guys don't want to play this aggressively? Especially given that the other two players are both expected to have wide ranges here? I think that's clearly missed value.
I have to disagree with you here PP. this is not playing scared at all. this is not a cash game, it is a tournament, and we can't just reload if we lose. it is still very early in the tournament. If we are checked raised on our bet, then what? are we still ahead? do we call and hope we catch with another street betting yet to come?if we short stack ourselves here, we severely hamper our ability to make a deep run in this tournament. I really think a check is wise, not scared. my .02

Anyone else's thoughts on this?

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 01:28 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 02:34 PM
(#14)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
I have to disagree with you here PP. this is not playing scared at all. this is not a cash game, it is a tournament, and we can't just reload if we lose. it is still very early in the tournament. If we are checked raised on our bet, then what? are we still ahead? do we call and hope we catch with another street betting yet to come?if we short stack ourselves here, we severely hamper our ability to make a deep run in this tournament. I really think a check is wise, not scared. my .02

Anyone else's thoughts on this?
I agree with Panicky on this one, considering our player reads as well as the action in the hand, our top two pair is highly likely to be the best hand, we miss a lot of value by checking. I expect my hand to be good here most of the time so betting now maximizes our chance to win a big pot, which significantly increases our chances to go deep in this tournament.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 03:48 PM
(#15)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
don't get me wrong, I like our hand here too. in fact I like it too much to bet and have to fold to a raise. I don't think that we lose a LOT of value. maybe a little though. I think we are usually good here too ( usually being the operative word) if they BOTH call a smallish bet, then we lost a little value, BUT if 1 of them raises or shoves then we have lost a LOT of value by having to fold a hand with a lot of showdown value.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 03:52 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 05:09 PM
(#16)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
If Monica had a set she would have fired again on the turn, Lou is a calling station so the majority of his range is made up of worse hands than ours, sets are probably the smallest % of his range, therefore I'm not concerned with being check raised.

When we don't bet the turn, we miss out not only on the chips we could win if our opponents call but also the chance to build a large pot that could allow us to stack off our opponents on the river. We check the pot is 4,575. Say we bet 2,400, and both Monica and Lou call the pot is now 11,775, when we build a pot that big its much more likely we'll get called on the river, we've also created a large enough pot to potentially stack off our opponents.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 06:24 PM
(#17)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think we lose massive value by checking. Lou is loose and is likely to call with worse, and Monica's range is very wide; so far she has made a loose iso-raise and a c-bet, so we've done nothing to narrow her range. Justifying a check by saying, "We can't reload," is playing scared. It doesn't matter that this isn't a cash game. You just have to accept that you'll lose sometimes because you got unlucky.

Now, if we get raised, I actually said in my last post that it's not really all that unclear what to do. Barring some read that the reraiser is bluff-happy, we should fold because we're not beating much and your equity is slim vs. their range. We're not throwing the value of our hand out the window if we have to fold to a raise, but we are throwing it out the window if we decide not to use it and bet.
 
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Wed Aug 03, 2011, 07:10 PM
(#18)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Massive value? We're just gonna have to agree to disagree here I think.
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 11:31 AM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Based on the earlier info that Lou would have folded to a raise

I know it's difficult to discount this, but this is not information we're supposed to have, so you really shouldn't consider it. In the future JD you probably shouldn't post the what if we did the other thing scenario as it taints the current hand being played.
 
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Thu Aug 04, 2011, 11:34 AM
(#20)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I know it's difficult to discount this, but this is not information we're supposed to have, so you really shouldn't consider it. In the future JD you probably shouldn't post the what if we did the other thing scenario as it taints the current hand being played.
Agreed
 

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