Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

10NL Deep 6-Max: OOP w/ Top Pair 2nd Kicker, Tough River Decision on Wet Board

 
Old
Default
10NL Deep 6-Max: OOP w/ Top Pair 2nd Kicker, Tough River Decision on Wet Board - Sun Aug 07, 2011, 04:26 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
BU is the main villain in this hand. He's running 16/14/0 over about 30-35 hands. CO is running 27/17/3 over around 75 hands. We're at a 5-handed 250bb table, and I open KQo UTG. The table has been decently tight for a deep table with minimal shenanigans going on. I'm running something like 36/18/8 though, so maybe I'm pulling a shenanigan or two. But anyway, my open didn't get through the right people, and I took a 3-way flop in the worst position.

I made a typical c-bet on the flop designed to get action from weaker hands but price out draws. The button stuck around, and the turn wasn't particularly good. I checked it with the intention to call because I felt I was still likely to be ahead but I didn't want to play a big pot with only a one-pair hand, and not even the best one at that. The villain checked behind, and the river sucked.

A ton of backdoor draws came in, and after the river, I was now behind every queen-broadway besides another KQ. I checked it again because I figured I wasn't beating the villain's range anymore, and the villain decided to bet, but he made it pretty small. What do you guys think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Panicky (UTG) ($37.27)
MP ($26.24)
Button ($10.91)
SB ($14.94)
BB ($25.17)

Preflop: Panicky is UTG with Q, K
Panicky bets $0.40, MP calls $0.40, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.45) 2, Q, 6 (3 players)
Panicky bets $0.80, 1 fold, Button calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.05) J (2 players)
Panicky checks, Button checks

River: ($3.05) 10 (2 players)
Panicky checks, Button bets $1.86, Panicky is confused. It hurt itself in its confusion!

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Aug 07, 2011 at 04:29 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 07, 2011, 05:28 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Ahhh the perils of KQ OOP lol.. thats a scary board, and the villians bet in my opinion is he is either scared, or wants you to reraise him... I am probably calling just to see another leak of mine, especially in HU games.. I need to see in order to adjust my play or not
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 07, 2011, 06:08 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
It may be a small leak of mine too, but I'm calling if nothing else, to get info on the opp that I can use against them later.... and you could still be ahead too.
Personally, I think he missed the spade flush, with them checking behind on the turn. I'd have made a small bet on the river to put the pressure on them... instead of getting it on me instead.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 07, 2011, 06:19 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I figured that I'd get called by nothing that was worse if I lead the river, ergo the check. I also hadn't played with this player for very long, but I didn't really think they were bluffing. I think that bluffing busted draws is sophisticated enough that I actually note it down when I see someone do it at 10NL. This looked like it could be some sort of bluff, but I just felt like that was unlikely to begin with because 10NL players just aren't that sophisticated.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 07, 2011, 08:05 PM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I'm calling that for sure. I don't know that is the bluff either, but it's a pretty thin value bet if that's what it is you might have checked your way into to two pair but I doubt it. leak or no, I think its a call to snap off the bluff or weak value bet.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 07, 2011, 10:35 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You are either facing a busted flush draw, or a flopped set.

With 2 spades, AQ is donk'ing a bet or check raising you on the flop, and will quite often raise you pre.

Same same for QJ on the turn (except for raising pre, unless villian is uber aggro).

QT...marginally possible it is there, but I'm not a-fearing that too too much.

$1.86 into a $4.66 pot...

Yeah, this might be a flopped set (or a weakly played AA/KK), but it could also be a busted spade draw like AJ/AT, or just a busted draw...

You gotta be "right" that it is a busted draw about 40% of the time to call...

Lotsa these micro players "lub da float" so I would think I'm probably calling more often than not Panicky...

Wha' hoppened?
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 07:35 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I tanked (not for too long since I'm a bit of a station myself), called, and surprisedly won.

The guy floated me on the flop w/ AJo and no draw, then value bet 2nd pair otr. I took a note on him after the hand (of course), but was pretty surprised to see the value bet more than the float, tbh. Maybe this was just a spazzy play on his part, I dunno, but I certainly didn't have a read on him saying he was capable of this.
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 12:41 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I can understand his value bet. You bet the flop, but checked the turn and river... which most people with a Q will NOT do. If I was in his situation, I'd have value bet the river too... especially if you were seeing a bunch of flops.

The float with 1 over would have surprised me more, as most decent players wouldn't do that... 2 overs, yes, but 1 over, no. If he read you as a station and could have basically ATC, I'm value betting 2nd pair on the river anytime to a turn/river check.
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 02:44 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I can understand his value bet. You bet the flop, but checked the turn and river... which most people with a Q will NOT do. If I was in his situation, I'd have value bet the river too... especially if you were seeing a bunch of flops.

The float with 1 over would have surprised me more, as most decent players wouldn't do that... 2 overs, yes, but 1 over, no. If he read you as a station and could have basically ATC, I'm value betting 2nd pair on the river anytime to a turn/river check.
Yeah Panicky, plus you ARE playing 36/18, which is hardly nitty...even at a 5 handed table.
(Still just under 2 hands per orbit). I just don't get why the heck, at a short handed table, he would not 3Bet your looseness with AJ. Especially running 16/14...or almost 100% raise to enter range.

*shrug*
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 02:56 PM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think it was a pretty bad value bet because he had some showdown value, but was certainly not getting called by worse. The only reason I was playing 36/18 was because about 50 of my hands at the table were with IP vs. a full-stacked fish who minraised into every pot. At a deep table (massive implied odds) with antes (massive pot odds), I'm taking any two playable cards to a flop IP. I was definitely still taking anyone thinking they could 3bet AJ for value to the town of big value.

Really confusing play on his part.
 
Old
Unhappy
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Yeah Panicky, plus you ARE playing 36/18, which is hardly nitty...even at a 5 handed table.
(Still just under 2 hands per orbit). I just don't get why the heck, at a short handed table, he would not 3Bet your looseness with AJ. Especially running 16/14...or almost 100% raise to enter range.

*shrug*
I get it! I get it! HE IS REALLY BAD!
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 08, 2011, 03:59 PM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

Really confusing play on his part.
Not really...... HE IS REALLY BAD!
 
Old
Default
Tue Aug 09, 2011, 04:27 AM
(#13)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Very interesting spot.

I like your turn check and reasoning Panicky. Since villain seems to play rather TAGgish I would assume he is going to fold a lot of Pairs < Q against a turnbet You can however bet the turn for thinnish value from QT and flushdraws. My decision for or against betting would depend on how I perceive villain. If I think he is a call-happy guy with showdownvalue or draws I will be inclined to bet. In case he might get aggressive with floats or semibluffs on the turn I will check.

Since he checked back the turn I would exclude any sets or two pair from his range. He would most likely have bet those hands for value. Same applies for semibluffs or draws I suppose.

The river improves TT and QT, so we no longer beat a lot of hands from his valuebetting range. I also do not see a lot of worse hands that might call a valuebet on the river here so I think checking is fine.

I think reasons can be made for a tough laydown here even though our absolute hand strength is very good it seems that our hand strength relative to his most likely range isnt very good at all.

The odds for a call are pretty good though and I guess it comes down to how you perceive villain's tendencies. If you do not think he will be capable of bluffing at all or valuebet a hand like Q9 I think a fold is fine here.

Last edited by PSO-xflixx; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 04:29 AM..
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com