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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE FLOP (pt 2)

View Poll Results: What do you do now?
FOLD 0 0%
CALL 5 41.67%
Check/Raise Small (4400 to 5500 to go) 1 8.33%
Check/Raise Medium/Small (5501 to 6050 to go) 1 8.33%
Check/Raise Medium (6051 to 7700 to go) 4 33.33%
Check/Raise Medium/Large (7701 to 10905 to go) 0 0%
Check/Raise Large (10906 to ALL IN to go) 0 0%
ABSTAIN (Please do not select this option, this is a "blank" vote so JDean can view results) 1 8.33%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE FLOP (pt 2) - Mon Aug 08, 2011, 05:33 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Vote results are:

CHECK.........................9
Bet 33% to 50%............1
Bet 50% to 66%............3

CHECK WINS!

Here is what happens:

Pot = 4400

YOU:
(43625 behind)

We check from the BB with Ac Ks on a flop of Ad Kh 6c

Action is on School Teacher Joe:
(you must find his exact stack size yourself)

Joe tanks a little bit, and appears slightly un-comfortable to you.
He shoots Ivan a quick glance, and lets out almost an inaudible sigh.

He CHECKS.

Action is on Ivan:
(you must find his exact stack size yourself, but you can immediately know he has something over 30k, but under 40k)

Ivan takes a few beats to think, and even looks at you for a second.
He then moves 2200 chips into the pot.

Action is back on you....

WHAT DO YOU DO?

Again, I will move this to a new thread to continue discussion. That thread will be "THE FLOP (pt 2)"

Your options are:

FOLD
CALL
Check/Raise Small (4400 to 5500 to go)
Check/Raise Medium/Small (5501 to 6050 to go)
Check/Raise Medium (6051 to 7700 to go)
Check/Raise Medium/Large (7701 to 10905 to go)
Check/Raise Large (10906 to ALL IN to go)

(If you decide to raise this bet, please post an exact amount, and do not just state which range you are selecting. Thank you.)

Last edited by JDean; Mon Aug 08, 2011 at 05:55 PM..
 
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Mon Aug 08, 2011, 05:43 PM
(#2)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
I'M MAKING IT 7200 TO GO

AND TWO DAYS IS TO FAR APART IMO

BUT YOU ARE DOING A GREAT JOB

 
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Mon Aug 08, 2011, 05:47 PM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am worried about Joe here; checking is not his usual MO. I will come back to this later.

TC
 
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Mon Aug 08, 2011, 09:54 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
If Joe is the straightforward type, this is almost 100% going to be a pocket pair below KK. There are reasons that Joe might be checking the nuts here, but they're pretty unlikely given Joe's image and the stack sizes imo. And, like I pointed out earlier, there's like a 5% chance that Joe outflopped us here given his range, and a way smaller chance that Ivan outflopped us given his range.

I'd very easily conclude that Joe is check/folding here, and if he doesn't, then we can sound the alarms. The only question to really ask is whether or not a check/raise will get called or raised by worse hands by Ivan. If so, we can raise. If not, we can just call. I actually don't think that many one-pair hands are calling a checkraise on this board. Ivan might call with AQ or AJ or a gutshot, but I think we might actually get more out of him if we call and allow him to catch up.

I think this one's pretty hard, actually.
 
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Mon Aug 08, 2011, 10:01 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Meh. I'll vote raise medium/small (about 6k). The chances that we got outflopped by someone are way small. I think that if we get 4bet, getting it in would not be very profitable, but there's probably some money in Ivan just calling us down here, and there's probably a good deal of money in immediately winning the pot.
 
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Mon Aug 08, 2011, 11:30 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
CR to 6500, I think we have the best hand and want to build a pot. I'm a little worried about a set, so might fold if one of them comes over the top.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 12:05 AM
(#7)
yahooza1's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 141
BronzeStar
interesting check by the pre flop raiser and fishy bet by ivan, feels like ivan is on a broadway draw or a very weak ace, A10 maybe. i'm going to opt for a small raise here to get a feel of joes hand. currently since the check i'm putting him on QQ/JJ/1010 so our raise should get rid of them hands but if he comes back over the top of us i might be giving him credit for a set or an AK himself.

re raising to 5500 hoping to get rid of joe
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 12:54 AM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I'm gonna just 3x it here I think 6600 to go and i'd be happy to take this down right here. I'm unlear whether ivans slight pause was our 90ish% tell or not as i'm sure what his bet speed was before this, were his bets on draws snaps or was there longer pauses thzn this one on his made hands? So I am a bit confused about that part. But I think we're way ahead of his range here, and if joe does have a hand, we'll know it here. If not we'll know that too.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 01:17 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think that Joe's check is almost obviously an 'I have showdown value but will never get called by worse if I bet' check. He might be trying to induce a bluff from Ivan, but he doesn't seem the type. It's more likely he wants to see a cheap showdown if possible, but is basically giving up the pot.

I don't think we can read anything into Ivan's bet. He might be trying to give himself a good price on the pot with a bluff, or he might be trying to give people a reason to peel. His bet sizing means almost nothing, imo.

For those who don't like the idea of facing a 4bet, you should be aiming to bet as small as you possibly can, so raising to T6000 is better than T6500 and T6500 is better than T7000 because by betting bigger, you're giving worse odds, and therefore inducing a 4bet or fold from anyone who wants to continue. By betting smaller, you give yourself a better shot at getting called. You also reduce the amount that you lose if you ever find a fold.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 06:45 AM
(#10)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
What is this?
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 08:34 AM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerstar671 View Post
What is this?
Its a value maximizing excercise. Check out duplicate poker #2 preflop and table reads, and come back here and vote for your next move and post your thoughts on the situation. Great hand reading and value excercise. Join us won't you?
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 08:48 AM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerstar671 View Post
What is this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dictionary.com View Post
Pronoun: Used to identify a specific person or thing close at hand or being indicated or experienced: "is this your bag?".
Adjective: Used to identify a specific person or thing close at hand or being indicated or experienced: "don't listen to this guy".
That. ^^^
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:09 AM
(#13)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I really think joe has probably given up as well, I'm not 100% sure whether joe's look of nervousness and slight sigh were an oh @%+&#@ deal, or an adrenaline thing with a monster but we'll sure find out shortly. If ivan has a draw with a couple of broadways its an at best 4 outer so im not worried about that, but he might have some kind of made hand here ( but I still don't know about this timing thing as this is not a drawing board as per our timing tell read) and we could get him to pay us off with a descent one with proper bet sizing on future streets (if we get there) and I think PP's right about our raise sizing here as well and would probably change my vote to a bit smaller, say 5500 or so that would change the votes to one more medium small and one less medium.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 09:17 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:15 AM
(#14)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
I Voted call, as im going for slow play, (there's 2 types of Bluffs
1 Bluff u got nothing and you trying bluff other person out, other u trying bluff in
2 bluff u have the nuts but don't want give away?( bet on small pair!)now nuts here is we hit the river (A K) Praying we got them where we want? if not we not giving to much away! and chips?
Then if hit on turn/river slam im ALL -in ? with slow play?

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 09:41 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:24 AM
(#15)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 0HighTimes0 View Post
I Voted call, as im going for slow play, (there's 2 types of Bluffs
1 Bluff u got nothing and you trying bluff other person out, other u trying bluff in
2 bluff u have the nuts but don't want give away?( bet on small pair!)now nuts here is we hit the river (A K) Praying we got them where we want? if not we not giving to much away! and chips?
Then if hit on river slam im ALL -in ? with slow play?
This is def. No bluff as the definition of bluff is a bet designed to get better hands to fold, which clearly no better hand is folding here, so this is clearly a value bet.
PS. PPYou kill me

Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 09:28 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:34 AM
(#16)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I was going to use the word 'this' with the up arrows instead of 'that', but I figured it might confuse people new to the word.

Just finished seven hand analysis posts. I need coffee.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:44 AM
(#17)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
sounds fun
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:48 AM
(#18)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
It's actually a surprsingly great discussion exercise. It's really useful to see how different people think.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 11:28 AM
(#19)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
I'm calling.

I think Joe missed (no c-bet) but am not 100% sure. If he's missed, a CR will definately shut him down and I want to give him an opportunity to possibly draw or better define his hand with a c-r.

Ivan's pause before the c-bet might indicate he's drawing as previously noted. I don't want to scare him away and hope we can get at least another street out of him.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 11:57 AM
(#20)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by annie_22at90 View Post

Ivan's pause before the c-bet might indicate he's drawing as previously noted. I don't want to scare him away and hope we can get at least another street out of him.
actually the tell was that he paused more on made hands than draws. Just so you all know
 

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