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2nl: QJ limp leads to big pot

 
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2nl: QJ limp leads to big pot - Tue Aug 09, 2011, 08:44 AM
(#1)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
I rarely limp into pots, except sometimes with small pairs if I am new to the table or think nobody is paying attention. In this case I made an exception, thinking QJ offsuit might play ok in a multiway pot in position. If I recall correctly, SB was fairly new to the table, but had already shown a tendency to limp a few pots himself, so I wasn't viewing him as a particularly strong player.

I got a nice flop with second pair and a straight draw. SB's bet looked like a probable top pair but I was happy to call, thinking this could get very lucrative if I improved.

Hitting the straight on the turn, I still put SB on a K, though it was also possible he had a J and had hit the straight too. I sized my raise with a view to getting the rest of my stack in on the river with a less than pot sized bet.

The bet into me on the river was a surprise, but I'll be honest and admit I didn't really take the time to evaluate it. I was keen to get all the chips in, the backdoor flush seemed such a long shot, and the best he could likely have was the same straight I had. I went ahead and shoved as planned. Unsurprisingly, SB called.

In retrospect, the first lesson I want to learn from this hand is to keep cool in big pots and think clearly before making my best decision. But I didn't properly range SB on the river because I didn't want to then be faced with a tough decision. Easier to just shove as planned. Fishy reasoning I know, but I'm sure I'm not alone in struggling to eliminate this sort of play from my game. I think I'm improving but its a long struggle.

But back to the hand. I'm now thinking a call on the river would have been my best option. Anyone for folding? Or was I right to just plough on?


[SB] (3.8)
[BB] (2.11)
[1] P1 (2.03)
[2] P2 (1.99)
[3] P3 (0.77)
[4] P4 (2.75)
[5] P5 (2.09)
[6] CO (3.05)
[But] mytton (1.44)

mytton Initial Pot: 0.03

P1 folds
P2 calls 0.02
P3 folds
P4 calls 0.02
P5 folds
CO folds
mytton calls 0.02
[SB] calls 0.01
[BB] checks
### FLOP ### Pot: 0.10
[SB] bets 0.10
[BB] folds
P2 folds
P4 folds
mytton calls 0.10
### TURN ### Pot: 0.30
[SB] bets 0.18
mytton raises to 0.40
[SB] calls 0.22
### RIVER ### Pot: 1.10
[SB] bets 0.62
mytton is All in
[SB] calls 0.30
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 09:03 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think the overlimp preflop is fine, since your hand is a pretty decent nut-flopper. If you raise, you probably get called by better a ton, so just playing QJ for the draw is fine.

I think the call on the flop is also fine, although I'm not really against folding. The only hand you're really beating is a naked jack, and your draws are obscured because the villain has a wide range, so you'll only be drawing to a chop a lot here.

At an uber-passive table, you just can't take AT out of someone's range, so you're going to be getting 4bet a lot on the turn and then saying WTF was that?! when you lose to the overstraight. I'd typically just call the turn, especially because most of the hands that will give you action will be chopping with you, so you're freerolling villains with diamonds with your 3bet.

Just call on the river, because you don't have anywhere near the nuts.

That's all imo, though. It's how I see the hand. I'm sure others will have different views.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 11:23 AM
(#3)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Can you guys please post your hands with the replayer? Numbers and letters confuse me.

Last edited by pokerstar671; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 11:26 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 11:40 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I don't mind your call pre flop, as you have a good speculative hand in position. and of course your calling the flop bet with great implied odds. and I love your turn raise, as only 1 hand has you beat here (AJ) which I think is probably a raise pre by the villain. The donk into you on the river is a bit disconcerting, so a flat here would be just fine, but I can't fault you for getting your last 30 cents in on this 1. if he caught runner runner for the flush here so be it. if he have the 1 hand that beat you before that, so be it, as both of those are such a small part of his range. My .02 pretty well played imo.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 11:51 AM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post


At an uber-passive table, you just can't take AT out of someone's range, so you're going to be getting 4bet a lot on the turn and then saying WTF was that?! when you lose to the overstraight. I'd typically just call the turn, especially because most of the hands that will give you action will be chopping with you, so you're freerolling villains with diamonds with your 3bet.

.
Ummmmmm, huh? A10 isn't giving anybody an overstraight here. Only AJ is doing that, and that would have been flopped. and only a tiny percent of his range. but you're right about free rolling diamonds

Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 03:40 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 03:38 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerstar671 View Post
Can you guys please post your hands with the replayer? Numbers and letters confuse me.
this hand probably wasn't played on stars, so no way to put it on the replayer
 
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Sorry... - Tue Aug 09, 2011, 04:07 PM
(#7)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
...but I got nothing but error messages every time I tried to use the hand replayer, so have given up trying to use it. Sorry if its harder to follow as a result.
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 04:36 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You played for what you got; the value in your draws.

You HIT that value.

You planned your actions in such a manner as to make it pretty easy to commit the river.

You pretty much should STICK with that plan in face of the situation here, since there really was no indications you might be facing a diamond free roll.

So it all boils to to whether or not your "assumptions" about the value of your hand were reaosnable to make all along. Let's check 'em out...

1) QJo is good to limp along pre.

As long as you are not going to go bust-o on a single paired hand in this multi-way pot, then I don't see any probablem with entering.

I'm not saying that you should NOT bet, or even raise, a single paired hit with this hand (if that's all you get), but by entering you REALLY are trying to leverage the drawing power of your hand. This means if your FIRST aggressive actions on a single paired hand run into resistance, are you capable of slowing down?

My personal thought, and paly preference, says there is really nothing WRONG with calling along here for the limp to see what happens, so long as neither blind is very Aggro, and so long as the limpers tend to be a bit "station-y". Less aggro, or less station-y villains, and I might consider RAISING QJ on the button versus the limpers ahead at least SOME of the time.

2) On the flop, calling a pot sized bet with "just" 2nd pair and an ooe Straight draw is worthwhile here.

Clearly, calling for pot odds only would say this is "wrong" a LOT more than not. Even pretty poor players do not tend to lead for a pot sized bet oop without a hand likely to be ahead of 2nd pair on this sort of board (this IS read dependant though).

His pot bet lays you 2 to 1 odds to call, but if you are behind a top pair hand your Maximum chance of spiking the TURN to pull ahead is: 13 outs / 47 unkown cards = 27.7%; you needed 33%+...(NOTE: This is MAX CHANCE, with all live outs to 2 x Q, 3 x J, 4 x A, and 4 x 9...some of these might be dead outs though)

That means continuing here on this hand, for this amount, relies on your IMPLIED ODDS. To assess that info, you would need...

- Info on what the SB will BET ON in the face of a 4th scare card.
You need this to know if he will let the pot get out of control, thus gain you more value for a turn spike.

- Info on what the SB will CALL in he face of a turn scare card.
If he doesn't bet, to leverage IO you gotta at LEAST see him call.

- How much is in the effective stack.

Your $1.44 was the effective stack between you and the SB.

On the flop, you were facing a 10c CALL to draw, so you are essentially risking 10c for the chance to win $1.62 AT MAX (if SB stacks off to you). Is that enough?

Well, on this particular board, I'd think you gotta be strongly suspecting that a 2nd pair for you MIGHT be no good because it would put the 4th STR card out there; I'd WAY discount the 3 x J's.

Q's are troublesome because SB might have 2 pair already on the all broadway board (all in a normal "play zone").

9's might not help, because there is a chance SB has the AJ.

So I'm thinking the only truly CLEAN OUTS you have are the 4 x Aces, and even those hitting may just give you a chop. Realistically though, I'd discount you outs from their MAXIMUM number, down to around 8 toal (full value for 4 x A's, 4 x 9's counted as 3, 2 x Q's counted as .5, and 3 x J's counted as .5)...

8 outs / 47 unknown cards = 17% chance of spiking the turn.
You'd need 5.88 to 1 pot odds to call to see the TURN with that number of outs.

So with the MAX Implied odds you can get being 16.2 to 1 for a call, you will probably have to double through your SB villain about 36% of the time a 4th straight card hits the TURN to make calling worthwhile.

Do you think he'd put in the amount of your stack that often WITHOUT a straight or a flush, on a 4straight card board?

Personally, weighing all factors at the micro stakes level, their looseness, their over aggression on bluffs, their willingness to get married to ANY top pair hand, etc, etc, etc, all adds up to a decent likelihood you could expect to double right around the amount of times you'd need to for +eV

so...

After the flop decision pointed you to spec for the implied odds (as long as you considered those things), when the 9 pops you are just looking for the BEST WAY to get all your chips in.

The raise you make on the turn seems pretty well sized for that, and with it JUST being called, you cannot really "know" if he has picked up re-draws or not...although it is obviously POSSIBLE. It really doesn't matter though anyway...

You configured your decisions to get 'em in on the river, so WHY would you potentially DENY yourself 30c worth of value you might get by putting em all in, just because he MIGHT have gone runner runner? If Villain puts you all in for like $2 or $3 more on this river, MAYBE you can THINK about a fold...but 30c off a $1.44 start stack?

SB has bet every street thus far, so why should the 3rd diamond on the riv indicate that anything about the relative strength of your hand has changed?

If you are gunna play THAT SCARED, then do not call the flop bet in the first place.

Last edited by JDean; Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 04:38 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 09, 2011, 04:40 PM
(#9)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Personally, I would fold this hand preflop, I would call the.02c if it were suited because there are a ton more flops QJs likes. Only raising this hand if I had an fish who limped to my right that I want to play against heads up.

At first glance, I didn't think anything was wrong with your call on the flop. I punched this situation into pokerstove and found it interesting that your equity against the range I put the villain on is not very good. You were getting 2:1 pot odds which means you have to win 33% of the time to be +EV. You have 27% equity if my ranging is fairly accurate.

Board: Kh Td Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.230% 21.30% 05.93% 15813 4405.00 { QhJc }
Hand 1: 72.770% 66.84% 05.93% 49627 4405.00 { TT, AJs, K8s+, J9s, AJo, K8o+, J9o }

When villain continues on the turn you have to slowdown and think why he is continuing to bet even though there are 4 cards to a straight, probably because he has a J as well. Unless you know this guy will fire away with just a pair of King, just call, if he is willing to call a raise he is probably on a freroll with a KJ, AJ or J9, if he has one of these suited in diamonds your in terrible shape. The only hand I think can call a raise that you beat is TT, which still has 9 outs to make a full house.

As played, I don't think I can ever find a fold on the river. He may have caught a runner-runner flush or we could be just chopping but I didn't come this far to fold, so Id call.
 
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Thanks All - Wed Aug 10, 2011, 09:31 AM
(#10)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Thanks for all the replies. Especially to JDean for the very detailed analysis. I'm surprised how marginal my flop call turns out to have been, I was confident at the time that it was good given my preception of the Implied Odds. I did though fail to take fully into account that with the Q having hit, there would be 4 cards to my straight if I made it, which as you say would inhibit further betting. I also gave myself credit for having the middle pair. Maybe too much credit, but I have seen people betting into flops like this at this level with no better than middle pair.

In the event, the villain turned over Kd 2d for the backdoor flush. Interestingly, PaidInFull6's pokerstove exercise on the villain's range, if extended to include all suited Kings, now shows the equity up very close to the 33% equity needed.
 

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