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Profiling for Exploitation (Super Long Post)

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Profiling for Exploitation (Super Long Post) - Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:35 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hey peeps,

This thread is about an LT topic (doesn't seem to be in the library yet). I figured I'd post it here for that reason, although it'd probably make sense to eventually move it to a different forum. Anyway, it's a sort of a mess of my thoughts that I'm trying to sort through. Maybe with enough input from enough people, this could eventually serve as a reference to help other people as a supplement to the training session.

Anyway, for the past month or so, I've been working a lot on developing my profiling skills, and also on understanding the correct ways to exploit people's mistakes. This list is basicaaly the sum of my progress. I'm hoping for some input on my list so I can improve it. I'm sure this list will be riddled with gaps and mistakes of some sort. I can edit this post to fix the errors (and make it more concise), and hopefully we'll end up with a pretty solid list of leaks and methods of exploitation that people can refer to. I hope to get some input on profiles I've missed, means of exploitation I don't know, or any mistakes I've made above. If this thread gets really good, we might be able to sticky it somewhere as a guide or something.

1) 3Bets Too Much (Preflop)
This player likes to put a lot of pressure on people by 3betting them frequently preflop. For good players who do this, it isn't technically a leak, but it can be exploited. Bad players who do this don't last long. This would be represented by a 3bet% upwards of 10, and is a tendency that is better observed in small sample sizes, because 3betting tendencies tend to fluctuate very frequently. For the same reason, it is better observed in context than it is through sole use of a HUD.

This player can be exploited by:
- 4betting them wide for value; the looser they call/5bet-jam, the wider you can 4bet
- 4betting them light as a bluff*, but only if they tend to 5bet/fold
- Calling them IP with ???
- Playing tight to begin with
- Sitting to their left rather than their right

*On 100bb stacks, 4bet/folding is difficult to do unless the first three bets are small, which complicates things. Since players at my limit are usually bad candidates to 3bet light, I always have a hard time playing people who 3bet frequently but don't to stack off unnecessarily for two reasons: First, I usually won't have the read that a player can be 3bet light, I'll usually just have something like a 3bet% of 18 over 40 hands and the general impression that they're not a total whale. Second, if the stacks are too shallow to 4bet/fold, I tend to just fold, which basically means that the frequent 3bettor wins. They always have the advantage because whenever I 4bet, I have the nuts and they know that, so they can fold.


2) Folds to 3Bets Too Much (Preflop)
This player is not one that I'm used to seeing at 10NL. This player is afraid of playing in 3bet pots to the extent that when 3bet, they continue with a very narrow range of hands relative to their opening range of hands.

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them wide


3) Plays Too Aggressively Postflop With a Weak Average Hand Strength
This player is characterized by a high VPIP and a high Agg%. An example would be a player with 40/8 stats, but a postflop Agg% of 48. Their leak is that their numbers just don't add up. They frequently take an aggressive line postflop, which would be believable if they weren't playing 40% of hands. I have a hard time understanding why players play this way, and my best guess is that they just bluff a whole lot. Another explanation would be that they think that any connection with the board is always worth a bet or a raise, and that calling postflop is bad.

If I'm correct in my assumption that they bluff a lot or think that weak hands are good enough to bet, then this player can be exploited by:
- Playing tight to begin with
- Calling them down wide


4) Too Passive Preflop, Too Passive Postflop, Doesn't Like to Fold
This is the typical profile of a calling station. This player is characterized by a VPIP that isn't low, a WTSD% that is high (upwards of 30), and a general lack of postflop aggression. This player overvalues their hands, and doesn't really understand the fundamental concepts of winning money at poker.

This player can be exploited by:
- Understanding their range and playing a range that dominates theirs
- Value betting them wide for value
- Value betting bigger amounts
- Giving more respect to their aggression
- Not relying on them to make bets for you (i.e. slowplaying)


5) Aggressive Preflop, But Passive Postflop
This player has probably spent time learning a thing or two about poker, and has the basics of preflop aggression covered. This player can be tight or loose. However, this player lacks postflop skill and tends toward passivity.

This player can be exploited by:
- ???


6) Calls 3Bets Too Much, Folds to C-Bets a Lot
This player doesn't like to fold to 3bets. They will call them too loosely, see too many flops, and fold unimproved. This player can do this from the CO or BU against SB or BB raises, but can also call too much while OOP. Some players only call too much IP or OOP, while some do both. This player is characterized by a high Call vs. 3bet% and a high Fold vs. Flop C-Bet 3bet Pot%

This player can be exploited by:
- 3bet bluffing. If this player will fold to c-bets whenever they don't hit the flop, then it doesn't matter what your hand strength is. 3bet them to death.
- Sitting to their left. The farther from their left you sit, the harder they are to exploit; you need to act after them in order to take advantage of them.


7) Calls 3Bets Too Much, Doesn't Like to Fold
This player can be aggressive preflop, but still doesn't like to ever fold. They are characterized by a VPIP that isn't low, a high Call vs. 3bet%, and a high WTSD%.

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them wide for value
- Value betting them wide for value
- Value betting bigger amounts
- Giving more respect to their aggression
- Not relying on them to make bets for you (i.e. slowplaying)


8) Opens Too Many Pots
This player is characterized by having a very high PFR. This is a very general leak, and can be paired with many other leaks (e.g. 3bets too much, folds to 3bets too much, calls 3bets too much and doesn't like to fold).

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them
- ???

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed Aug 10, 2011 at 07:51 AM..
 
Old
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 05:50 PM
(#2)
the_eagle23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 231
+1 Really nice post some great info It's nice that people like you share their knowledge of the game
 
Old
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 08:37 PM
(#3)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
I agree eagle..gordon has been an outstanding contributor to the community and deserves a lot of props.

This is a great post g, I look forward to seeing this list develop.


You down with GPP,
Yeah, you know me...

~~~edit~~~
If it is stickied, I think it would be better in the advanced poker forum or general forum. Just my .02

Last edited by !!!111Dan; Wed Aug 10, 2011 at 08:41 PM.. Reason: cuz
 
Old
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 02:46 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Very nice write up regarding ways to use certain numbers on your HUD.

It is good you used profiling as your term though, because like profiling when the Police do it, this is just a GENERAL guide to ways to possibly exploit certain opponents' patterns. Having all info to use is a good thing though!

Keep it up.
 
Old
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 08:12 AM
(#5)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Hey peeps,

This thread is about an LT topic (doesn't seem to be in the library yet). I figured I'd post it here for that reason, although it'd probably make sense to eventually move it to a different forum. Anyway, it's a sort of a mess of my thoughts that I'm trying to sort through. Maybe with enough input from enough people, this could eventually serve as a reference to help other people as a supplement to the training session.

Anyway, for the past month or so, I've been working a lot on developing my profiling skills, and also on understanding the correct ways to exploit people's mistakes. This list is basicaaly the sum of my progress. I'm hoping for some input on my list so I can improve it. I'm sure this list will be riddled with gaps and mistakes of some sort. I can edit this post to fix the errors (and make it more concise), and hopefully we'll end up with a pretty solid list of leaks and methods of exploitation that people can refer to. I hope to get some input on profiles I've missed, means of exploitation I don't know, or any mistakes I've made above. If this thread gets really good, we might be able to sticky it somewhere as a guide or something.

1) 3Bets Too Much (Preflop)
This player likes to put a lot of pressure on people by 3betting them frequently preflop. For good players who do this, it isn't technically a leak, but it can be exploited. Bad players who do this don't last long. This would be represented by a 3bet% upwards of 10, and is a tendency that is better observed in small sample sizes, because 3betting tendencies tend to fluctuate very frequently. For the same reason, it is better observed in context than it is through sole use of a HUD.

This player can be exploited by:
- 4betting them wide for value; the looser they call/5bet-jam, the wider you can 4bet
- 4betting them light as a bluff*, but only if they tend to 5bet/fold
- Calling them IP with ???
- Playing tight to begin with
- Sitting to their left rather than their right

*On 100bb stacks, 4bet/folding is difficult to do unless the first three bets are small, which complicates things. Since players at my limit are usually bad candidates to 3bet light, I always have a hard time playing people who 3bet frequently but don't to stack off unnecessarily for two reasons: First, I usually won't have the read that a player can be 3bet light, I'll usually just have something like a 3bet% of 18 over 40 hands and the general impression that they're not a total whale. Second, if the stacks are too shallow to 4bet/fold, I tend to just fold, which basically means that the frequent 3bettor wins. They always have the advantage because whenever I 4bet, I have the nuts and they know that, so they can fold.


2) Folds to 3Bets Too Much (Preflop)
This player is not one that I'm used to seeing at 10NL. This player is afraid of playing in 3bet pots to the extent that when 3bet, they continue with a very narrow range of hands relative to their opening range of hands.

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them wide


3) Plays Too Aggressively Postflop With a Weak Average Hand Strength
This player is characterized by a high VPIP and a high Agg%. An example would be a player with 40/8 stats, but a postflop Agg% of 48. Their leak is that their numbers just don't add up. They frequently take an aggressive line postflop, which would be believable if they weren't playing 40% of hands. I have a hard time understanding why players play this way, and my best guess is that they just bluff a whole lot. Another explanation would be that they think that any connection with the board is always worth a bet or a raise, and that calling postflop is bad.

If I'm correct in my assumption that they bluff a lot or think that weak hands are good enough to bet, then this player can be exploited by:
- Playing tight to begin with
- Calling them down wide


4) Too Passive Preflop, Too Passive Postflop, Doesn't Like to Fold
This is the typical profile of a calling station. This player is characterized by a VPIP that isn't low, a WTSD% that is high (upwards of 30), and a general lack of postflop aggression. This player overvalues their hands, and doesn't really understand the fundamental concepts of winning money at poker.

This player can be exploited by:
- Understanding their range and playing a range that dominates theirs
- Value betting them wide for value
- Value betting bigger amounts
- Giving more respect to their aggression
- Not relying on them to make bets for you (i.e. slowplaying)


5) Aggressive Preflop, But Passive Postflop
This player has probably spent time learning a thing or two about poker, and has the basics of preflop aggression covered. This player can be tight or loose. However, this player lacks postflop skill and tends toward passivity.

This player can be exploited by:
- ???


6) Calls 3Bets Too Much, Folds to C-Bets a Lot
This player doesn't like to fold to 3bets. They will call them too loosely, see too many flops, and fold unimproved. This player can do this from the CO or BU against SB or BB raises, but can also call too much while OOP. Some players only call too much IP or OOP, while some do both. This player is characterized by a high Call vs. 3bet% and a high Fold vs. Flop C-Bet 3bet Pot%

This player can be exploited by:
- 3bet bluffing. If this player will fold to c-bets whenever they don't hit the flop, then it doesn't matter what your hand strength is. 3bet them to death.
- Sitting to their left. The farther from their left you sit, the harder they are to exploit; you need to act after them in order to take advantage of them.


7) Calls 3Bets Too Much, Doesn't Like to Fold
This player can be aggressive preflop, but still doesn't like to ever fold. They are characterized by a VPIP that isn't low, a high Call vs. 3bet%, and a high WTSD%.

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them wide for value
- Value betting them wide for value
- Value betting bigger amounts
- Giving more respect to their aggression
- Not relying on them to make bets for you (i.e. slowplaying)


8) Opens Too Many Pots
This player is characterized by having a very high PFR. This is a very general leak, and can be paired with many other leaks (e.g. 3bets too much, folds to 3bets too much, calls 3bets too much and doesn't like to fold).

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them
- ???

bump +1
 
Old
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 09:48 AM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
AGGRO PRE, PASSIVE POST.... My thought to exploit would be call wider IP pre, and value bet them to death post.
 
Old
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 03:04 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks for the feedback, guys. I was hoping this might come off a bit better in text form than it does in my head. It's like a mess of puzzle pieces partially put together when I think about it. One thing I should note is that although HUD stats are used a lot in my list, I've found that not observing how those numbers got to be that way usually leaves a very incomplete picture of the player, so it becomes far harder to understand their game and how to exploit it. Perhaps with months or years of poker experience, one can rely on a HUD a lot more, but I still have a great deal of difficulty with the experience that I have.

Regarding mtn's post, I'd like to discuss that profile more in-depth. The image of that player in my head is someone who runs something like 18/16/3 preflop. They have a close VPIP and PFR, but they call opens IP on occasion; and their 3bet% is average. Postflop, they're just generally passive, but they don't see a ton of showdowns. They might c-bet a typical amount (50-80%), but beyond that, they just don't tend to bet without the nuts. The weird piece of their profile is the fact that they are not a calling station. So the value bet to death strategy might not fit as a means of exploitation, because they won't necessarily call you down wide. It's the profile I understand the least, but I see it pretty frequently. I'd imagine that they should probably be treated like a calling station, but they'd be far less profitable to play.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 03:59 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

Regarding mtn's post, I'd like to discuss that profile more in-depth. The image of that player in my head is someone who runs something like 18/16/3 preflop. They have a close VPIP and PFR, but they call opens IP on occasion; and their 3bet% is average. Postflop, they're just generally passive, but they don't see a ton of showdowns. They might c-bet a typical amount (50-80%), but beyond that, they just don't tend to bet without the nuts. The weird piece of their profile is the fact that they are not a calling station. So the value bet to death strategy might not fit as a means of exploitation, because they won't necessarily call you down wide. It's the profile I understand the least, but I see it pretty frequently. I'd imagine that they should probably be treated like a calling station, but they'd be far less profitable to play.
Ok PP, I don't really consider a cbet% of 50-80% to be very passive post, but i'd float a lot with a cbet% near the top of that range for sure. If they're givin up a lot when that cbet is called withouta real hand, thats a very ez steal spot if they're doing that with any consistancy.if they're not calling down wide, then all the more reason for that move. And if there not real stationy and wont call down, I am gonna v-bet or raise when i've caught a piece on raggy boards with my spec hands IP. I think there's plenty o free money on the turn with the profile you've embelished. Just a couple random thoughts from a random thinker
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 04:49 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
5) Aggressive Preflop, But Passive Postflop
This player has probably spent time learning a thing or two about poker, and has the basics of preflop aggression covered. This player can be tight or loose. However, this player lacks postflop skill and tends toward passivity.

This player can be exploited by:
- ???


- Tighten Value betting range (lead bet and 3Bet less, and stronger, on all streets)
- Semi Bluff, do not Air ball bluff (bluffs with outs).
- Use position to create a better price for good drawing hands.
- Leverage "back door" outs, as well as scare card outs more.

In short, use their propensity to build a pot PRE-FLOP against them by being highly cognizant of strong odds you will tend to get through their post flop play.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 04:52 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
8) Opens Too Many Pots
This player is characterized by having a very high PFR. This is a very general leak, and can be paired with many other leaks (e.g. 3bets too much, folds to 3bets too much, calls 3bets too much and doesn't like to fold).

This player can be exploited by:
- 3betting them
(in position)
- ???

Mainly, iso your reasonable hands against.

Set your range on them, then look to play ANY 50 to 55% equity hand versus that range as close to H.U. as possible.

Can be very tough to play, or very easy to play. Afterall, Negreanu and Ivey could reasonably be sorted into this group.
 

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