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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE TURN (pt 1)

View Poll Results: What do you do now?
CHECK 8 61.54%
Bet Small, 400 (min bet) to 2200 (25% pot) to go 0 0%
Bet Medium/Small, 2201(25%) to 2935 (33% pot) 0 0%
Bet Medium, 2936 (33%) to 4400 (50% pot) 2 15.38%
Bet Medium/Large, 4401 (50%) to 6600 (75% pot) 1 7.69%
Bet Large, 6601 (75%) to 11000 (125% pot) 1 7.69%
OVER BET, 11001 (125%) to ALL IN (all your stack) 0 0%
Abstain (Blank vote for JDean to view progress. Please do not choose this.) 1 7.69%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE TURN (pt 1) - Wed Aug 10, 2011, 05:04 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You hold: Ac Ks on a flop of Ad Kh 6c

You elect to CALL Ivan's lead of 2200, leaivng yourself 41425 behind.
Pot = 8800

School Teacher Joe mutters a little bit under his breath, and mucks his cards.

Ivan shifts side to side in his chair a little bit, but does not look across the table at you.

You take the time to visually count down Ivan's stack, and see he has just over 32k.

TURN: 9s.

Action back on you.

WHAT DO YOU DO?

CHECK
Bet Small, 400 (min bet) to 2200 (25% pot) to go
Bet Medium/Small 2201(25%) to 2935 (33% pot)
Bet Medium 2936 (33%) to 4400 (50% pot)
Bet Medium/Large 4401 (50%) to 6600 (75% pot)
Bet Large 6601 (75%) to 11000 (125% pot)
OVER BET 11001 (125%) to ALL IN (all your stack)

(If you decide to bet, please post an exact amount, and do not just state which range you are selecting. Thank you.)
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 05:42 PM
(#2)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
I BET 8,000



 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 06:27 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Well since we check/called the flop, we have to at least give him one shot at firing a second barrel. CHECK
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#4)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
Well since we check/called the flop, we have to at least give him one shot at firing a second barrel. CHECK

I THINK WE GAVE HIM A FREE CARD AFTER THE FLOP
DO WE GIVE HIM ANOTHER FREE CARD ??


 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:03 PM
(#5)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I check with the intention to raise if he bets. Were still way ahead of his range here, the only hand the 9s helps is 87 or A9, checking again gives Ivan a chance to barrel his worse hands, betting drives out the majority of his hands that he may bet with. I think if he does bet we should raise, if he's bluffing or doesn't have much and folds, so be it, we got 2 streets of value from his weak hand, but if he does have a good hand, AQ/A9, I want to build the pot to hopefully get good value on the river as well.
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:08 PM
(#6)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
AND WHAT IF HE CHECKS ??




 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:15 PM
(#7)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
I THINK WE GAVE HIM A FREE CARD AFTER THE FLOP
DO WE GIVE HIM ANOTHER FREE CARD ??


We did give him "a chance" at a free card. He however decided not to take us up on it and bet. Like dave said he might check behind for pot.control but with his aggressive style I think he might fire again thinking we just peeled w/ second pr. or a gut shot. Since no guts got there and the 9 is basically a blank I think he'll more often than not fire another barrel. we're only behind a set here and (minus the aces and kings) there's 6 combos out of 1300 and change that gets him there (and a whole 2 more if you ad them. ~OBVIOUSLY his range is not 1300+ combos~

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 10, 2011 at 08:00 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:20 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
If he checks behind i'm leadin' on the river
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:22 PM
(#9)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
If he checks I lead out for 4,500 on the river.
 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:34 PM
(#10)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
WHY ARE WE SLOW PLAYING OUR HAND ??


 
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Wed Aug 10, 2011, 07:48 PM
(#11)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
We're up way ahead of our opponents range.

Ivan is a strong and aggressive player who I think is capable of firing multiple barrels. Ivan's range is wide, if we bet he easily folds most of his range, there are very few hands he will continue with if we bet. Checking gives him the opportunity to bet those marginal hands, as well as bet the hands he would call with, giving us the chance to check raise. I'm slow playing to get value form his entire range not just the very top of it.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 07:43 AM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I ran this last night with an unrealisticly tight range of something like 66+,AQo+,A6s+ (giving him every chance to hit his sets) (about 8.6%) and we're at WORST an 82ish% fav. - the As,andKs, we're like 86ish% so WAY, WAY ahead of his actual range. (Just for everyones info to be better informed)
PS.....i'm startin' to hear crickets.....where is everyone?

Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Aug 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM..
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 01:34 PM
(#13)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
Check. Hoping Ivan's aggression will continue and we'll get an opportunity to CR.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 04:07 PM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
If he checks behind i'm leadin' on the river
+1

But.. don't think it's in his profile to check behind.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 04:08 PM
(#15)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
WHY ARE WE SLOW PLAYING OUR HAND ??



since the opp is very aggressive, we want to give him just enough rope to hang himself in the hand. (the only hands the turn helps would be 99 or A9 or K9)
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 04:11 PM
(#16)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
(the only hands the turn helps would be 99 or A9 or K9)
and all but 99 is great for us!
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 06:20 PM
(#17)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Check, if (when) Ivan bets, is a CR or a call best? If we just call, he might call a decent value bet on the river. On the other hand, he may be getting suspicious already. I know I would wonder.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 06:26 PM
(#18)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
WHY ARE WE SLOW PLAYING OUR HAND ??


Acting out of flow is not slowplaying entirely. You have a point about giving a free card, but here's what I have to say:

If we lead out, Ivan will have two choices if he has whiffed or flopped a weak hand or draw. First, he can fold. This would be the most natural choice. Second, he can take a rebluff line, but given that we called him OOP on a dry flop, our most likely perceived range right now is at least an ace that isn't looking to fold. We're almost never on a speculative hand here. Ivan may be aggressive, but I don't think he's going to try to bluff us off of a strong range, when that bluff would likely cost him all of his chips if it were to fail. He could also call us and pray, but I don't think he will. So, if Ivan has whiffed, he will likely fold.

If Ivan has hit this board in any real way, he is not likely to fold. There are some very weak middling made hands or draws that he could have (KQ, JT, etc.), and while I think that we might get one street of value out of those hands, those are much closer to air than made hands on this type of board, and I think Ivan will treat them more or less as such. So really, we're looking at AA, AK, AQ, and only a few other hands that really count as made hands for Ivan. If he has one of those, then it doesn't really matter whether we bet or check. The money is probably going in the same.

So, if we bet, and all that accomplishes is getting Ivan to fold his air, then we're not gaining anything by betting. Sure, we give a free card to Ivan if he chooses to check back underpairs, gutshots, and Kx-type hands, but most of his range consists of air that has almost no equity against our range and that can only win by bluffing, and hands that he'll value bet for sure. We might lose value from weaker one-pair aces, and we might get rivered by a straight draw, but I think we gain more by checking, and we're only afraid of losing anything if Ivan checks back. He's pretty aggressive, so he's going to be inclined to bet.

Also, if Ivan has identified our range to be very strong and no longer wants to bet, we're still not losing anything except from AQ and maybe AJ, because he'd fold to a bet anyway.

I say bet super-small, like something between 0 and 0.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 06:29 PM
(#19)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
Check, if (when) Ivan bets, is a CR or a call best? If we just call, he might call a decent value bet on the river. On the other hand, he may be getting suspicious already. I know I would wonder.
I say check/call turn, check/raise river. The reason I think we should play it slow is because Ivan will only ever bluff if we let him bluff, and he's never really calling with anything he won't value bet anyway, besides maybe AQ and AJ. I think we gain more from bluffs than we lose by letting AQ check behind.
 
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Thu Aug 11, 2011, 07:48 PM
(#20)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
I voted Check, but i was thinking of small raise (Betting on we had 99 +?), but went against this as, have been said this may make Ivan fold!.(if hes got nothing! or re-raise if hes got something/bluff-in?)
Check as I think id give him rope to hang himself!?(depends on river!)
.

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 02:07 AM..
 

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