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Duplicate Poker, Hand #2: THE TURN (pt 2)

View Poll Results: What do you do now?
FOLD 1 8.33%
CALL 7 58.33%
Raise Small, 13200 to 16500 to go (min raise, to 1.5 times raise) 1 8.33%
Raise Medium, 16501 to 23100 to go (1.5 times raise to 2.5 times raise) 1 8.33%
Raise Large, 23100 to All In (2.5 times raise, to All in) 1 8.33%
Abatain (Blank vote for JDean to track voting. Please do not select.) 1 8.33%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker, Hand #2: THE TURN (pt 2) - Fri Aug 12, 2011, 12:29 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Votes are in, and checking wins...

Action Proceeds:

YOU: Ac Ks
41425 behind

Pot = 8800

Board = Ad Kh 6c 9s

You check first to act.

Ivan looks at the board, and thinks hard for about 20 seconds (quite a long time live).

(Ivan appears to have a little over 32k in his stack. If you want the eact number, you must ask dealer for a count down by going back through the threads and adding it up yourself.)

He then cuts out 6600 from his stack, and moves it into the pot.

Action is back on YOU.

What do you do?

FOLD
CALL
Raise Small, 13200 to 16500 to go (min raise, to 1.5 times raise)
Raise Medium, 16501 to 23100 to go (1.5 times raise to 2.5 times raise)
Raise Large, 23100 to All In (2.5 times raise, to All in)
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#2)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
i'll go for the large to all in raise!! if he knows my range an he hold something like A6(unlikly) i would make him pay for the final card!! because we have given him already 2 free cards!!(according last post)
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 01:09 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
i'll go for the large to all in raise!! if he knows my range an he hold something like A6(unlikly) i would make him pay for the final card!! because we have given him already 2 free cards!!(according last post)
we have twice given him the opportunity for free cards, and twice he has not taken us up on it, so no free cards yet.
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 01:35 PM
(#4)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
I'm torn here. Does he have a set of 6s? Was he floating the flop and hit a set of 9s on the turn? Think we can discount a set of aces or kings as we hold 1 of each and think Ivan would have 3-bet Joe with those holdings. Or A6, A9, K6, K9? So raise him or call? I'm not folding top 2 with a chance to boat-up on the river, so I'll call, keep the pot small. I'm a bit set-trified though.

Forgot - does he have AK?

Last edited by annie_22at90; Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 01:37 PM.. Reason: Forgot one.
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 02:09 PM
(#5)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
we have twice given him the opportunity for free cards, and twice he has not taken us up on it, so no free cards yet.
true!! missed that!! but still i hold him on A9 or A6 because with this board when he hold AA or KK i think he also see the possibilities above his head and would have bet more.

i also must tell that after my experiences from the last couple of weeks i rather secure and pick up then gamble and suck out
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 05:40 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Answer is going up in about 24 hrs...so get your votes in FAST!
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
There's no way he'll ever call if we raise here and he has worse. I think we should call.

Not that this is necessarily telling, but here's an interesting set of facts about our present situation. If we call now, Ivan will need to overbet the pot (about 130%, I think) on the river in order to get all-in. Had he bet the pot now, then he would have a pot-sized bet behind on the river, so getting himself all-in would be easier. Also, I doubt there's very little in Ivan's perception of our range that would fold to a pot-sized bet but call a 3/4 pot-sized bet. So, if Ivan is thinking about those things, it's actually very unlikely that he's value betting right now. I think we should assume that he's on a bluff and let him take one more shot on the river, even if he overbets all-in.
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 07:04 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
okay here are some the questions that popped in my head.....
1. what do we think our villains perceived range for us is now that we have shown weakness twice?
2. what do we perceive our villains range it is now that he is fired second barrel?
3. do we think he's air balling here?
4. if we raise are we getting called by worse?
5. would he pot control with a 1 pr. hand
6.how can we maximize value without putting ourselves in an unduely tough decision spot?
my answers are this,1.top pr.better than average kick 2. 2 pair or better 3.no 4.no 5.? and last but not least 6.call
Remember, ivan is very aggressive, but SELECTIVELY aggressive, and a smart opponent whose game we respect

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 08:10 PM..
 
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Fri Aug 12, 2011, 09:59 PM
(#9)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
We have let Ivan have the lead all through the hand, so we might as well continue to follow this line with a call. Give him a chance to fire again on the river.
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:00 PM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am voting for a bet of 15,200 but it looks like call will win. I am not very comfortable with how we have played this hand.

TC
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:04 PM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I am voting for a bet of 15,200 but it looks like call will win. I am not very comfortable with how we have played this hand.

TC
A raise to? A raise of? And why?
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
There's no way he'll ever call if we raise here and he has worse. I think we should call.

^^^This.

I already said I don't think Ivan is barreling the turn with air, and I still don't, so he must be attempting to extract value with what he perceives is the best hand. The line we have taken probably looks a lot like AQ to Ivan (if we have a hand that can continue to the turn bet), a slow played strong hand (which he expects will serve him notice and raise now, but we shouldn't), or a weaker hand reverse-floating (which will fold, but we're not).

If Ivan is trying to extact value from AQ, it means he can beat AQ. That would be 2 pair or a set. We're still over a 2-1 favorite to have the best hand vs. his value betting range, so folding is out of the question. If we check/raise, it looks so strong I think we lose most 2 pair hands, which will make us a very big underdog when called, thus check-raising is -EV like Panicky said.

If folding and raising are both unattractive, that leaves calling.
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:46 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Not that this is necessarily telling, but here's an interesting set of facts about our present situation. If we call now, Ivan will need to overbet the pot (about 130%, I think) on the river in order to get all-in. Had he bet the pot now, then he would have a pot-sized bet behind on the river, so getting himself all-in would be easier. Also, I doubt there's very little in Ivan's perception of our range that would fold to a pot-sized bet but call a 3/4 pot-sized bet. So, if Ivan is thinking about those things, it's actually very unlikely that he's value betting right now. I think we should assume that he's on a bluff and let him take one more shot on the river, even if he overbets all-in.
This assumes Ivan has a hand strong enough to play for stacks and would be trying to set that up, which is not necessarily the case, he can value bet but not be willing to play for stacks. Strong players will be making use of the bet/fold line with a lot of moderate 2 pair hands in this situation.
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:53 PM
(#14)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
Ok it seems calling will be the outcome here but the way of play comes to me like we have already won. Now i am certainly not the best player in the world but i think we give him the feeling we are toying him. We gave him 2 chances en hè didn't bite but hè still follows zo hè must believe somehow hè is not that far behind or even silently laughing his but of. If hè is that solid and hè has à good read ons us why would hè keep fireing. I can't believe hè does that to semi bluf or just buying cards because we just keep him hooked.

Small bets smell like power
Big bets smell like draws, u want him out
Call is ok when u have THE nuts

We are certainly very strong, but do we have nuts?????
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 12:58 PM
(#15)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
A raise to? A raise of? And why?

Sorry it is a pot sized rise to 15,200. I feel Ivan has at least two pair, possibly a set, rather than call and wait for the river and maybe be in an even stickier situation. I am voting to act now. I know it is minus ev, that we will likely only be called or reraised by better, but I would rather know where we are at now.

Yes I know I am a chicken

TC
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 01:44 PM
(#16)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
We gave him 2 chances en hè didn't bite but hè still follows zo hè must believe somehow hè is not that far behind or even silently laughing his but off.
If hè is that solid and hè has à good read ons us why would hè keep fireing.


We are certainly very strong, but do we have nuts?????
To your first point, oh but he DID bite... Twice!
I believe by our line so far, he thinks not that he's behind at all, or he would most likely have checked behind at least our turn check to realize his equity for FREE, but again he chose to bet out.
also, by our line thus far in the hand, I cant see him possibly having a "good read" on us. Would you (if you were in his shoes) put your opponent on top two pr.? with the line you saw us take so far? (showing weakness twice so far on the flop AND the turn?) I can only say (I) sure wouldn't. Probably top pr. descent kicker at best.
And the answer to your last question is obvious.. Just my 2¢

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sat Aug 13, 2011 at 01:47 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 03:21 PM
(#17)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
RESULTS ARE IN, CALL WNS.

Action Proceeds:

You CALL 6600 holding Ac Ks on a board of Ad Kh 6c 9s

Pot = 15,400

You have 34,825.

River comes: Jd

Action is back on you.

What do you do?

CHECK
BET SMALL, 400 to 3850 (min bet to 25% pot)
BET MEDIUM/SMALL, 3851 to 6150 (25% to 40% pot)
BET MEDIUM, 6151 to 10165 (40% to 66% pot)
BET LARGE, 10166 to 19250 (66% to 125% pot)
OVER BET, 19251 to ALL IN (125% to All In)

I will post this in a new thread, and open another poll.
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 03:34 PM
(#18)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
LOL, I knew you'd throw a broadway in on the river....
 

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