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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE RIVER (pt 1)

View Poll Results: What do you do?
CHECK 6 54.55%
Bet Small 0 0%
Bet Medium/Small 0 0%
Bet Medium 2 18.18%
Bet Large 2 18.18%
OVER BET 0 0%
Abstain (please do not select, for JDean to use to track voting) 1 9.09%
Voters: 11. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker Hand #2: THE RIVER (pt 1) - Sat Aug 13, 2011, 03:23 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
RESULTS ARE IN, CALL WNS.

Action Proceeds:

You CALL 6600 holding Ac Ks on a board of Ad Kh 6c 9s

Pot = 22,000 (TY Annie)

You have 34,825.

River comes: Jd

You look at Ivan's stack and see he has somewhere between 25k and 27k in chips remaining.

Action is back on you.

What do you do?

CHECK
BET SMALL, 400 to 3850 (min bet to 25% pot)
BET MEDIUM/SMALL, 3851 to 6150 (25% to 40% pot)
BET MEDIUM, 6151 to 10165 (40% to 66% pot)
BET LARGE, 10166 to 19250 (66% to 125% pot)
OVER BET, 19251 to ALL IN (125% to All In)

Last edited by JDean; Sun Aug 14, 2011 at 04:20 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 13, 2011, 05:49 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I don't (like some of the suckout paranoid folks out there) think this card changes much at all. I really doubt seriously that he 1.got involved in this hand as light as Q/10, or 2.kept pushing with said hand either. imo ivan is on (as I said earlier) on 2 pr.+ A6s,A9s,99,or(66 unlikely i think with his flop bet sizing.) And if he has AJ (again unlikely,but possible) A6, A9 we're sittin' pretty.i'm sure he doesnt have hooks, as there's no way he's playing that hand the way he did on that board. I think this is a check for the very same reasons as stated on the turn. and a call or raise will depend on the size of his river bet. If he checks it down,we weren't getting another chip out of him anyway. (I'm sure like most of my posts I'll edit this later as more stuff comes to mind)
Carap! My edit didn't take I'll try again in a few... Dinner time
Ok let me try this again. Althoooooough........ 1. if we lead out medium small, say 5200 to 6000, do we get a curiosity call from a showdownable (is that a word?)hand that would just check down if we checked. 2. and if we did that and got shoved over the top of, would calling that 20,000ish shove be profitable? 3. AND/OR.. if we lead out for say 10,000, we know we are never been called. he will either fold or shove, and if he shoves, would it be profitable to call off another 16,000ish? I don't think if we checked and he bets, he will bet big, as anything but a bluff, because HE knows as we do, he will never be called unless he's beat .
i think i woud answer that like1. probably yes 2. probably yes 3.probably no So either check call, or lead in medium small (split the difference,and say 5600) i think actually that lead might be a bit more +EV
is this reasonable thinking? thoughts on this?

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sat Aug 13, 2011 at 11:22 PM..
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 01:35 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think a lead would be interesting. If Ivan is considering bluffing, then he's considering bluffing us off of the ace. That's the weakest hand I think we call down with. If our weakest hand is a split top pair with a good kicker, it seems like a stupid idea to bluff us off of it. I think I've changed my mind from my earlier impression that we should check/call this river, since he'll probably check back everything that isn't at least as strong as our hand at this point.

So, if we're not checking, how much should we bet? I think that AJ is actually still in his range some of the time, and I don't think he's folding it very often. I think that we can bet/call profitably if we bet big enough (I think a 1/2 pot bet followed by a call all-in would actually be bad), and since there's some potential for value from betting here, I think we can bet about the size of the pot with the intent to call.

We can do other things, too. I'm interested to see what everyone else thinks. I say we should bet the full pot of T15,400. Definitely a hard spot for me, imo.
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 08:52 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

So, if we're not checking, how much should we bet? I think that AJ is actually still in his range some of the time, and I don't think he's folding it very often. I think that we can bet/call profitably if we bet big enough (I think a 1/2 pot bet followed by a call all-in would actually be bad), and since there's some potential for value from betting here, I think we can bet about the size of the pot with the intent to call.

We can do other things, too. I'm interested to see what everyone else thinks. I say we should bet the full pot of T15,400. Definitely a hard spot for me, imo.
I think if we bet anything like 10,000 or more and he shoves it's probably a huge spew to call. since I don't think he's ever just calling a bet that size. he's either shoving for folding 100% of the time. I totally agree with what you have in parentheses with the caveat that I would drop that bet sizing down to about 10,000 as stated above. and I think if he shoves on a smaller bet, it would be nothing but trying to push us off a 1 pair hand, because if he wants to get value from an actual hand, his raise would be smaller.(trying to get payed off)

I know yo can't alter the poll JD but pls. note i'd like to change my initial vote of call to raise medium small (6000)

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sun Aug 14, 2011 at 04:18 PM..
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 11:41 AM
(#5)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
One correction - there's actually 22,000 in the pot.

We're either ahead (best 2 pr), tied, or behind (set of 6s - discounting 9s as re-thinking this I don't think he would have led on the flop with 2 overs and me still to act).

We've put approx 23% of our starting stack in this pot. I'd like to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. I check and hope Ivan makes bets no more than pot and hopefully less.
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 11:56 AM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
Quote:
Originally Posted by annie_22at90 View Post
One correction - there's actually 22,000 in the pot.

We're either ahead (best 2 pr), tied, or behind (set of 6s - discounting 9s as re-thinking this I don't think he would have led on the flop with 2 overs and me still to act).

We've put approx 23% of our starting stack in this pot. I'd like to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. I check and hope Ivan makes bets no more than pot and hopefully less.
Ditto, everyone seems to be totally discounting the possibility that we are second best, and Ivan has been very carefully stringing us along with a better hand. I'm not sure enough to want to risk my whole tourney on this hand (may be my inner nit escaping again).
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 03:17 PM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I think the only sensible thing we can do is check: I would have been more comfortable leading out on the turn but we still are not sure if we are ahead. If we bet and Ivan reraises all in do we really consider it to be +EV to call. If he fires the third barrel do we really believe he is reraising with worse than us.

I am going for the chicken check and lets see if we get any read from Ivan.

TC
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 04:10 PM
(#8)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I bet, 13,200.
If we check and Ivan has us beat, he will bet, and we are going to call. If Ivan has a hand that we beat he can easily check it down, betting could be our only chance at getting value on this street, so I am leading 60% of the pot.

In this case the range of hands that beat us is very small, AA, KK, JJ, 99, 66. The hand that most realistically fits the betting being 66.
There are only 11 ways to make a hand that beats us
AA : 1 combo
KK : 1 combo
JJ : 3 combo's
99 : 3 combo's
66 : 3 combo's

99-AA don't fit the betting line, I do not think Ivan calls preflop with AA or KK, I do not think Ivan will fire the flop with 99 or JJ, he certainly would not bet the turn with just JJ, so I think we can eliminate that from his range. So minus JJ, only 8 ways to make a hand that beats us.

On the other hand, the range of hand's we beat that Ivan could call with is much larger. AJ, A9, A6, K9, AQ. This also depends on how wide Ivan can call, I think he only calls worse 2 pair hands (not including K6 or KJ which do not fit betting) and with AQ.
AJ : 6 combo's
A9 : 6 combo's
A6 : 6 combos
K9 : 6 combo's
AQ: 8 combo's
Only 8 out 40 combinations beat us, or 20% of his range. 80% of the time we will have the best hand, therefore I think we have to bet this street.

Also, if you do not think Ivan takes this line with 99, then 5 out 37 hands beat us, or 13.5% of his range. 86.5% of the time we have the best hand.

Personally, I think the only set he has here is 66, so that means 3 out of 35 hands beat us, or 8.5% of his range. In this case 91.5% of the time we hold the best hand.

All this leads me to believe we must bet this street and should not be concerned with Ivan having a better hand, as we will hold the best hand a massive % of the time.
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 06:24 PM
(#9)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Paid and PP I see what you're saying about 90% of the time we are good here. but do you really believe that he's calling off half is stack or better, with the weaker part of that range? ( which is far and away the biggest part of it) I think he's turning those loose for that size bet. and probably only calling us with AJ,AK. and he's jamming 66 over the top of us. a smaller bet gets value from those weaker holdings. just my .02
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 11:37 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
I bet, 13,200.
If we check and Ivan has us beat, he will bet, and we are going to call. If Ivan has a hand that we beat he can easily check it down, betting could be our only chance at getting value on this street, so I am leading 60% of the pot.

In this case the range of hands that beat us is very small, AA, KK, JJ, 99, 66. The hand that most realistically fits the betting being 66.
There are only 11 ways to make a hand that beats us
AA : 1 combo
KK : 1 combo
JJ : 3 combo's
99 : 3 combo's
66 : 3 combo's

99-AA don't fit the betting line, I do not think Ivan calls preflop with AA or KK, I do not think Ivan will fire the flop with 99 or JJ, he certainly would not bet the turn with just JJ, so I think we can eliminate that from his range. So minus JJ, only 8 ways to make a hand that beats us.

On the other hand, the range of hand's we beat that Ivan could call with is much larger. AJ, A9, A6, K9, AQ. This also depends on how wide Ivan can call, I think he only calls worse 2 pair hands (not including K6 or KJ which do not fit betting) and with AQ.
AJ : 6 combo's
A9 : 6 combo's
A6 : 6 combos
K9 : 6 combo's
AQ: 8 combo's
Only 8 out 40 combinations beat us, or 20% of his range. 80% of the time we will have the best hand, therefore I think we have to bet this street.

Also, if you do not think Ivan takes this line with 99, then 5 out 37 hands beat us, or 13.5% of his range. 86.5% of the time we have the best hand.

Personally, I think the only set he has here is 66, so that means 3 out of 35 hands beat us, or 8.5% of his range. In this case 91.5% of the time we hold the best hand.

All this leads me to believe we must bet this street and should not be concerned with Ivan having a better hand, as we will hold the best hand a massive % of the time.
+1, ty for saving me some typing. Combinatorically, we are ahead most of the time here. A couple minor differences, I do think 99 is in his range, as I do think he would bet the flop in position when checked to (99 doesn't really have any value checking back the flop, if someone bets the turn he has to fold unless he hits a 2 out set... he's much better off betting and giving us a chance to fold TT-KQ type hands).

He's also liable to check back A6 and A9 on the river after we call this turn bet, but he will pay off a modest river bet with them.

Also, I'm not sure he's raising us with a set, our range must look very strong on the river now when we bet. So we may get the best of both worlds, paid by worse but not punished the few times he has better.

I bet 12,500.
 
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Sun Aug 14, 2011, 11:40 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
RESULTS ARE IN, CALL WNS.

Action Proceeds:

You CALL 6600 holding Ac Ks on a board of Ad Kh 6c 9s

Pot = 22,000 (TY Annie)

You have 34,825.

River comes: Jd

You look at Ivan's stack and see he has somewhere between 25k and 27k in chips remaining.

Action is back on you.

What do you do?

CHECK
BET SMALL, 400 to 3850 (min bet to 25% pot)
BET MEDIUM/SMALL, 3851 to 6150 (25% to 40% pot)
BET MEDIUM, 6151 to 10165 (40% to 66% pot)
BET LARGE, 10166 to 19250 (66% to 125% pot)
OVER BET, 19251 to ALL IN (125% to All In)
JD your chip count numbers are mixed up, which will mess up the voting. It says the pot is 22K, and I'm betting 12.5, so that's "bet medium (40-66% pot)".
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 12:03 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
yes. my mistake was in forgetting to add our chips to the pot.

I posted the options in the poll before this was caught (by Annie).

As such, it is good we are using exact numbers (ty all for stating that).

Plz configure your votes per the percent of the ACTUAL pot your bet is.

thanks.
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 05:53 AM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Votes are in, and CHECK wins!

Action Proceeds:

Pot = 22,000

You CHECK.

Ivan counts down his chips, then counts them down again; on his 2nd time counting, you count along and see he has 26,850.

He then appears to count the pot amount.

He cuts 10k out of his stack, but stops to think again. He appears quite confused.

Ivan glances up at the clock, and sees there is now about 28 minutes let until the end of the level, and the end of the day. Ivan then counts his chips again.

He looks up at you, seemingly to be looking for a read, any read, but you remain quite stoic.

Martha says, "C'mon sonny! Some of us want to play a few more hands!"

Ivan thinks for a few more seconds, then shakes his head...and CHECKS.

Ivan rolls over 66, and when you show your AK, Ivan slams the table, quickly stands up and takes a few steps back. He turns around muttering something, then sits back down. He says, "Good hand", in a heavily accented Russian voice, and goes back to his quiet demeanor.

RESULTS:
Ivan rakes in a 22k pot, and goes to 48,850
You lose this pot, and have a stack of 34,825.

OK, QUESTION TIME!

1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66?

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK?

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did?

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set?

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's?

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised?

7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you;d like to make, now that you know the results?

...I anxiously await your thoughts.
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 09:50 AM
(#14)
annie_22at90's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 864
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
OK, QUESTION TIME!

1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66?

No - considered it as part of his range.


2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK?

Maybe happy his read was correct, in that we had 2 pair or relieved that we didn't river a str8 or had a better set.


3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did?

Sure, why not


4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set?

We're cautious, not overly aggressive, capable of trapping - need the absolute nuts before going in for the kill. Still on an even keel, still in the game, ready for the next hand.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's?

Pre-flop only.

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised?

Pocket pair - 77-QQ


7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you;d like to make, now that you know the results?

3-bet preflop might have gotten Ivan to fold his 6s.

...I anxiously await your thoughts.
Thanks JD for these exercises.
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 10:14 AM
(#15)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Here's my answers.

[QUOTE=JDean;

OK, QUESTION TIME!

1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66? I'm not surprised by a set, but thought it'd have been 99.

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK? Upset that he didn't value bet the river.

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did? Put us on 99 instead of AK

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set? Losing the hand won't affect me much at all, if I lost, I expected to lose to a set.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's? Normally, I'd have said no... but with his reaction, a push on the river may have done it.

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised? QQ

7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you;d like to make, now that you know the results?

...I anxiously await your thoughts.[/QUOTE]
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 10:32 AM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66?

No, that was in his range the whole time.

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK?

Because he realized he missed value, is this a trick question?

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did?

If you mean checking down the river, yes.

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set?

That we are playing more passive/scared than they realized.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's?

Preflop, yes, but most were scared to 3b. Post flop, don't be silly.

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised?

QQ/JJ
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 10:50 AM
(#17)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66?

No, I was convinced Ivan was not betting with air.

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK?

Ivan probably thought we were slow playing Aces or Ks which is why his betting was so conservative and that he checked the river. He was angry at himself for not being more aggressive.

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did?

Yes, he undervalued his set, and did not get the value that he should have.

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set?

The villains will have noted our passivity throughout this hand and may now believe that we are tight passive and will only bet with the nuts. This could be used to our advantage as well though and allow us to bet when we are weak and everyone expects us to have the nuts. In terms of mind set we must be disappointed with our play here but we are still in the tournament with a reasonable stack and should have opportunities to make good our loss here.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's?

If we had re-raised preflop, Ivan may have folded his small pocket pair. A bet on the turn could have worked also, maybe a river bet as well but I still feel we lost this hand preflop and bets on the other streets would have landed us in deep trouble.

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised?

10s to Qs

7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you;d like to make, now that you know the results?

We should have reraised preflop with AK? Calling was too weak and passive.

TC
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 11:26 AM
(#18)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
OK, QUESTION TIME!

1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66? A little suprized he checked and then showed that down, but no 66 was never not part of his range.

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK? because he didn't value bet the river.

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did? For the reason above, but also I think because he let the clock play a part in his decision (didn't want to bust out this late in the day)

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set? Probably that we play a little more timid then they originally thought, and/or we like to slow play. and it won't affect me negatively, but hopefully it will teach me to not be so passive in the future.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's? Pre, probably, post, ummmm never

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised? JJ,QQ, probably QQ, since dave and jwk thought they heard something about that lol. I only heard the curse words as they were far and away the loudest part of his mumblings

7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you;d like to make, now that you know the results? we probably should have 3bet pre to try to isolate the pre flop raiser, and I never did get any feedback on my thoughts on the river play, that would have been nice...lol

Last edited by mtnestegg; Mon Aug 15, 2011 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 03:21 PM
(#19)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
1) Are you surprised by the fact Ivan showed down 66?
-----Surprised he couldn't find a value bet.

2) Why do you think Ivan acted as he did when he saw our AK?
-----Butt hurt because he missed big value checking the river.

3) Do you think he has REASON to act as he did?
-----I suppose he had his reason's, I do not think we play AA or KK like we played AK here, Ivan was worried we could ck/call the flop with 99 or JJ.

4) What do you think your play of AK may "say" to the table Villains who are/were watching your play? How do you think losing a hand like this might effect your mind-set?
-----Villains are prob thinking " no 3 bet from the bb with AK, maybe this guy ain't as strong as I thought."
-----This hand would not effect my mindset, if anything I would be relieved I still have 34K.

5) Do you think you had any chance, at any point, to bet Ivan OFF his 6's?
----Maybe preflop, but we both started this hand deep stacked, he could have called a 3 bet in position against us, so I'm not sure we ever get him to fold 66.

6) What do you think School Teacher Joe had when he open raised?
----QQ

7) Are there any comments about the play of this hand on ANY street you'd like to make, now that you know the results?
----3 betting from the bb with AK would have been a better play, would have at least given Ivan a chance to fold.
 
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Mon Aug 15, 2011, 03:37 PM
(#20)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
@mtnestegg

This may be skewed by the results but as long as we didn't make a massive over bet he was going to call, and never raise. I don't know if the smaller bet would get paid off by his weaker 2 pair's more often, he's getting good odds whether we bet 7,000 or 13,000, better than 2:1 either way, I go for the larger bet to try and win as much as possible when he does call.
 

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