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Duplicate Poker Hand #3: THE FLOP (Dave, do not read!)

View Poll Results: What do you do now?
FOLD 2 22.22%
CALL 5 55.56%
RAISE SMALL, 8250 to 10,325 to go (min raise, to 1.5 times raise) 1 11.11%
RAISE MEDIUM, 10,326 to 14,350 to go (1.5 times raise to 2.5 times raise) 0 0%
RAISE LARGE, 14,351 to 32,000 to go (2.5 times raise to ALL IN to go) 0 0%
ABSTAIN (blank vote spot for JDean to track results; plz do not choose) 1 11.11%
Voters: 9. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker Hand #3: THE FLOP (Dave, do not read!) - Wed Aug 17, 2011, 02:58 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Votes are in: CALL WINS!

Action Proceeds:
POT = 3425

With AhQh and 33,850 in your stack, you CALL 1850 (32,000 behind)
POT = 5275

TheLangolier CALLS 1850 as well (31,975 behind)
POT = 7125

Mort counts down his entire stack, then counts down the pot. He shoots looks at each person in the hand, seems to think for a couple of beats, then FOLDS.

Lisa quickly lifts the corner of her cards, and takes a very fast glance at them (note: she had not looked before action got to her, instead she spent effort watching others). She sits up, appears to "lock in" to an upright position with a "game face" on, and non-chalantly tosses 1250 chips more into the pot (53,825 behind).
POT = 8375

FLOP COMES...
7h Td 5h

Lisa casually announces "Bet".
She cuts out 4125 in chips (49,700 behind), and moves them smoothly into the pot.
POT = 12,500

McEvoy looks a Lisa; she is locked into a stoic pose, with her hands resting comfortably a-top each other on the rail. Lisa's gaze is fix on some point in the middle distance, and she is giving no information whatsoever through her body language (think a female Chris Furgeson, but sitting upright not with hands in front of her face).
McEvoy looks left toward you and TheLangolier, then MUCKS.

Action is on YOU!

What do you do?

FOLD
CALL
RAISE SMALL, 8250 to 10,325 to go (min raise, to 1.5 times raise)
RAISE MEDIUM, 10,326 to 14,350 to go (1.5 times raise to 2.5 times raise)
RAISE LARGE, 14,351 to 32,000 to go (2.5 times raise to ALL IN to go)

Please post the EXACT bet amount you choose to make if you elect to raise.

Thank you!
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 03:54 AM
(#2)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
SB calls and then leads in post flop and a straight and flush draw board making the first bettor fold.

RAnging her to 55, 77, TT, AT, KJs(hearts) or, unlikely the 8h9h and ofcourse the highend PP's

i don't believe she would call any A7 or A5 especialy because i hold the flush nut ace and i also don't believe she would have called with any 68 or straight draw hole cards.

There for i have 9 flush outs and 6 six overcards makes 15 and reduce that by 2. make 13 give my a 26% chance for a hit some over 1 in 4.

i pay 4125 to get 16.625 is about 1 to 4 also.

1 to come and the librarian acted first OOP

i would probably make a small raise to see what dave does and try to get him off this hand and if lisa dit get the set and shoves over me i can fold easyand get away

I MAKE A SMALL RAISE OF 8250 having about 40 BB left
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 08:56 AM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
to me this is an easy call. the lucky librarian obviously have something here. she donk leads into the pre flop raiser and 2 callers all of which have a position on her. and she only bet 1 third of the pot so she wants a call or a raise. her range for calling pre flop was huge with her monster stack, so she could easily have hands like 55, 77, 1010, 98, 68, 64 A10,710, 57 which dave could also have in his calling range and I don't want to blow dave out of the pot, sinse him coming along helps our drawing odds, and I don't want to bloat the pot further and get us totally commited on just 2 overs and a flush draw.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 11:06 AM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 11:26 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
There for i have 9 flush outs and 6 six overcards makes 15 and reduce that by 2. make 13 give my a 26% chance for a hit some over 1 in 4.
For the flop, it's not 'number of outs' X 2%..... that's the odds for after the turn

Correct odds for after the flop is OUTS X 4%
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 11:53 AM
(#5)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
I wanna call but what happens next? Id probably fold tho.

Last edited by pokerstar671; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 11:58 AM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 12:00 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerstar671 View Post
What happens if you call? I want to call what happens next?
go to the top of the page and vote call or whatever you think is our best play. then we wait for others to vote and the majority wins and that's what we do for this action and so on til the hand is played out

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 12:03 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 02:04 PM
(#7)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
JWK your right again and thats what i ment lol

so thats a 4x13 52% chance to win so 1 out of 2

still i do the small raise lol
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 02:10 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
JWK your right again and thats what i ment lol

so thats a 4x13 52% chance to win so 1 out of 2

still i do the small raise lol
Just so ur aware.. It's not % to win the hand. It's % to hit your outs. Just want to make sure you realize that fact. And im not convinced all those outs are good outs....
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 02:50 PM
(#9)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
I think I would fold because it said that the person who raised is lucky they probably have a set or straight flush draw. And I think the player next to me might be set mining also or could have something ike 10s+ so im just guessing everyone has a set and im going to miss my flush. Also I have alot of bad luck with aq even if its suited so im going to fold. Anyways the first player bet half of the pot and I dont know whether the person after me is going to raise if I call so I dont want to end up putting in a big piece of my stack on a draw. Also maybe the tome mcevoy pro guy probably has a good read on them thats why he folded. he probably had ak also so there goes one of my outs if someone has an overpair.

Last edited by pokerstar671; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 02:56 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 03:18 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
And im not convinced all those outs are good outs....
I won't argue that at all, some could get an opp a full house maybe.
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 03:30 PM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Ya or give us a pair when a set is already out etc
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 03:46 PM
(#12)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
This donk bet to me is usually a pair of tens leading into the pot for info. Could also be a set and sometimes a flush draw, but I think the majority of her range is 1 pair of tens. Worst case scenario she has TT, 77, or 55, which leaves us 25% to win. Best case scenario she has a worse flush draw which leaves us about 72% to win. Most likely scenario she has a pair of Tens which gives us a 50/50 coin flip.
The following is the range I think she can have here:

TT, 77, 55: 9 combo's

98s, Jh8h, Jh9h, KhJh, Kh9h: 7 combo's

AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8: 66 combo's

If my thought process is correct in this hand she will show up with a pair tens the majority of the time. 50/50 coin flip, we should call.
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 04:03 PM
(#13)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
This donk bet to me is usually a pair of tens leading into the pot for info. Could also be a set and sometimes a flush draw, but I think the majority of her range is 1 pair of tens. Worst case scenario she has TT, 77, or 55, which leaves us 25% to win. Best case scenario she has a worse flush draw which leaves us about 72% to win. Most likely scenario she has a pair of Tens which gives us a 50/50 coin flip.
The following is the range I think she can have here:

TT, 77, 55: 9 combo's

98s, Jh8h, Jh9h, KhJh, Kh9h: 7 combo's

AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8: 66 combo's

If my thought process is correct in this hand she will show up with a pair tens the majority of the time. 50/50 coin flip, we should call.
And daves range to flat behind pre? And this gal has some experience, (the way she didnt look til her turn, looking at others, her expessionless face, etc.) and contrary to what the mouthy guy says I think this gal knows what she's doingI dont tnink she's on that weak of a range with her donk lead here imo.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 04:20 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 04:53 PM
(#14)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Cant really accurately range Dave yet because we haven't seen him act post flop. My best guess he's flatting a range like this TT-22,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-ATo,KJo+, give or take a few hands. If Dave raises behind he probably has set, could have a big combo draw as well, although I think he might just call with that.

We could be up against a strong opponent with TT, 77, 55, but that donk bet to me is a marginal strength hand trying to find out where it stands. Remeber there are only 9 ways she could make a set here, compared to 66 ways she could make a pair of tens. If she does have a set calling gives us the best chance at hitting the flush.
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 05:29 PM
(#15)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
don't get me wrong I totally agree with your opinion to call. I was just expressing my feelings about her range being a little snugger than that with that donk bet, and my perspective of her playing ability. whether she is on a set, a draw, 1 pair or 2 pairs, I think a call is correct. and just as a little side note, I think this dave guy on our left has played a time or two as well...lol
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 07:36 PM
(#16)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
With 3 players left to act you don't think she would check a set?
She would have to call fairly light preflop to hit 2 pair with T7, T5, or 75, but If she does have 2 pair I would expect her to bet, so that's possible. I hadn't really considered 2 pair hands because I don't know if she would call those hands pre.
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 07:50 PM
(#17)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
With 3 in front of her and her monster pile o chips she had great odds to see the flop really wide so 2 pair for sure in her range here imo and I might lead out into a raised pot w/ a set into three players hoping to get raised if one or more had an overpair

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 07:55 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 09:07 PM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
hurry and get votes in, we need a tie breaker!
 
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Wed Aug 17, 2011, 10:31 PM
(#19)
yahooza1's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 141
BronzeStar
i don't think we can just lay down our hand here with a potential nut draw + we could get runners to give us broadway but i also don't think we can re raise ace high here just incase we get bet off our draw so calling is probably the way to go so that's my choice to call with hope that dave is folding/just calling himself.
 
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Thu Aug 18, 2011, 04:55 AM
(#20)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
hurry and get votes in, we need a tie breaker!
Question what happens if its a TIE VOTE?
A coin or dice Roll
This is where politics come in too sport POLITICAL SYSTEMS! ( we each Vote for dice or coin roll ?!? lol)

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Thu Aug 18, 2011 at 05:10 AM..
 

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