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Duplicate Poker Hand #3: THE TURN (pt 2), Dave do not read!

View Poll Results: What do you do now?
FOLD 7 70.00%
CALL 1 10.00%
RAISE minimum (27,000 to go, leaving yourself 875 behind) 0 0%
RAISE all in (making it 27,875 to go) 0 0%
ABSTAIN (blank vote for JDean to track progress...plz do not select. ty! 2 20.00%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

 
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Duplicate Poker Hand #3: THE TURN (pt 2), Dave do not read! - Fri Aug 19, 2011, 05:33 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
ACTION PROCEEDS:

Votes are in, CHECK wins!

YOU CHECK.

POT = 20,750
BOARD = 7h Td 5h 6d

TheLangolier cuts out 13,500 from his stack (14,350 behind), and moves it into the middle.
POT = 34,250

Lisa goes into the tank. She considers her options for a good minute to a minute and a half.
She then snaps her head up and stares directly at TheLangolier, and CALLS.
POT = 47,750
(Lisa has 36,200 behind)

Action is on YOU!

What do you do?

FOLD
CALL
RAISE minimum (27,000 to go, leaving yourself 875 behind)
RAISE all in (making it 27,875 to go)

What do you do?
 
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Fri Aug 19, 2011, 05:39 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
easy fold for me, too much at stake to chase a draw.We have little invested, so get out now and watch someone go home
 
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Fri Aug 19, 2011, 06:08 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
As played an easy fold but I would not snap fold here. Take a minute or so to ponder what could have been before we toss our draw into the muck.
 
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Fri Aug 19, 2011, 06:34 PM
(#4)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
yup fold!! but i still think we play to passively here!!
 
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Fri Aug 19, 2011, 06:50 PM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
unfortunately, due to our passive pre flop action, this is sadly a fold. dave at least is pot committed, and is never laying this hand down no matter what we do. sadly I think we really dropped the ball on this 1. on the flipside we still have a workable stack and can continue in the tourney with a minimal loss. I think our opportunity to chip up came and went with pre flop and was compound it on the flop D'OH!!
 
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Fri Aug 19, 2011, 10:25 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Fold, A high is never good here.
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 03:26 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I'd take my time, look at everyone still in the pot... look at Dave... say to myself "why the **** didn't I raise preflop", muck my cards... and not play a big A passive preflop against them again.... like this and the previous hand.

Although the one thing I'd take from it is that since we played the big A passive twice, the opps may now be viewing us as tight/passive.... which could pay dividends later on with a bluff, that we'll get alot more respect for than we really should.
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 03:32 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK!

So it looks like a pretty universal fold here...

I've pm'ed Dave (TheLangolier) to let him know that you've all decided to fold, and that he can look at these threads now...

Before Dave pops in to discuss things, WHAT HAND do you think he has?

What do you think may have happened if you had raised on the flop, or pre-flop?
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 03:45 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
with position, Dave could have done it with almost ATC. Everyone checking to him, if I were in his position, would for nothing else, make a flop bet to see where I'm at. The librarian calling it, however, makes it more tricky for him. She's got at least a marginal hand, so he'll need to re-evaluate on the turn and if he doesn't hit his hand, probably check behind for pot control (if she checks).

Exact cards, I'd put Dave on J 10 suited or Q 10 off..... but he could make a bet with anything, especially a mid/low pair from the board.
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 04:45 PM
(#10)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Dave has 10 10 the girl hit a straight and still has a flush draw. She is going to ship it on the river if the board doesnt pair on the river. Just guessing tho who knows.
If I raised on the flop all the money is probably going to go all in because someone is most likely going to reraise the reraise. If I just called on the flop raised on the turn someone is probably going to put it all in there also.

Last edited by pokerstar671; Sat Aug 20, 2011 at 04:47 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 07:03 PM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I think Daves flatting range was wide enough that he could have connected with that flop in a number of ways, middling pps, suited connectors, suited 1 or even 2 gaps. Wouldn't be suprised if he flopped oosd, set (don't think this though as he would've bet that wet of a board), 2pr. I put lisa on top pr. flop or two pr. more likely with her call of Daves turn bet.
 
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Sat Aug 20, 2011, 07:05 PM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I'd take my time, look at everyone still in the pot... look at Dave... say to myself "why the **** didn't I raise preflop", muck my cards... and not play a big A passive preflop against them again.... like this and the previous hand.

Although the one thing I'd take from it is that since we played the big A passive twice, the opps may now be viewing us as tight/passive.... which could pay dividends later on with a bluff, that we'll get alot more respect for than we really should.
+1
 
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Sun Aug 21, 2011, 05:08 AM
(#13)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
with this passive play i even think it's possible that dave made a semi- bluf with and openended draw or flush draw. there are to many pissibillities in his favor. we all think lisa has the set or something but maybe dave has the set and lisa the draw.

stiil keep saying that at this point we are still guessing while we could have more intel on both if we raised earlier
 
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Sun Aug 21, 2011, 02:49 PM
(#14)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK...FOLDS WIN.

You Fold.

Result: Your stack = 27,875

What ends up happening...

River comes a 2c.

Lisa contemplates for a while, then knuckles a check.
Dave commits his last 14k and change...

Lisa folds. Her stack = 36,200

TheLangolier WINS a pot of 47,750, and now His Stack = 62,100.

Dave tables JJ without a h, and List shows JhTh.

Nice chip up Dave!

QUESTION TIME:

1) Do you think you might have gotten Dave to fold the over pair with a flop raise of Lisa's lead?
2) What about if you had fired a "2nd barrel" on the semi-bluff?

3) Now that you KNOW the exact hands, did you have correct pot odds to call Dave's turn bet?
4) How about your odds on each street...odds of all types?

5) What things might you have done differently in this hand?
 
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Sun Aug 21, 2011, 03:29 PM
(#15)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
1: no

2: 2nd barrel would be reraised and the hand would probably end right there!

3:maybe not

4: maybe a little advantage

5: reraised preflop then checked/folded
 
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Sun Aug 21, 2011, 04:47 PM
(#16)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
1) Do you think you might have gotten Dave to fold the over pair with a flop raise of Lisa's lead?
---No, doubt Dave is ever folding an over pair on the flop.

2) What about if you had fired a "2nd barrel" on the semi-bluff?
---Possibly, barreling the turn is strong, looks like 2 pair, a set or a straight, not sure if Dave would lay down an over pair though.

3) Now that you KNOW the exact hands, did you have correct pot odds to call Dave's turn bet?
---Yes we had correct odds to call, getting 3.537:1 pot odds, we only need 22% equity to be +EV, we had 30.952%.

4) How about your odds on each street...odds of all types?
---Yes we had odds to play the hand through,. We had 43% equity preflop and 50% equity on the flop, with that much equity odds don't matter .

5) What things might you have done differently in this hand?
---Could have 3 bet preflop, although we very well may have gone broke on this board had we re-raised preflop. Could have raised on the flop as well, that would have been a strong move, don't know if would have worked out for us though.
 
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Sun Aug 21, 2011, 11:26 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
I'll let you all answer JD's questions before I give any thoughts on the hand.

One thing I want to say now though, this river action JD inserted on his own, personally I would never shove my last 14K in on the river after Lisa check/calls the turn, I'm absolutely never getting better to fold (so it's not a bluff) and I don't think I'm getting worse to call (so it's not for value). I think shoving the last 14K, which still represents a 24bb stack if Lisa has QQ, is really bad with my actual holding since she won't fold QQ to the shove and won't call with AT or worse (imo)
 
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Mon Aug 22, 2011, 01:23 AM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I just tossed that out on the spur of the moment Dave, wasn;t meant to do anything but close out the hand.

As far as the group, the hand was over when they folded.

All I wanted to do was give the pot to you, since Lisa was not slated to bet in any scenario on the river (she'd only have bet top pair/J kicker if the flush had come), and since you were "live" in the hand I had NO actions prep'ped ahead of time for you.
 
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Mon Aug 22, 2011, 01:51 AM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
No problem, just thought the group should know it was just thrown out there to end the hand, cause someone was bound to ask about shipping the river then I'd have to say uh, yeah, I'm not as I think there's no real value in it.
 
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Mon Aug 22, 2011, 09:49 AM
(#20)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
[QUOTE=JDean;297732]

QUESTION TIME:

1) Do you think you might have gotten Dave to fold the over pair with a flop raise of Lisa's lead? Probably not unless he put us on specificly on a set with that raise.and that would be dependent on sizing I think.
2) What about if you had fired a "2nd barrel" on the semi-bluff? If we fired hard he might not like his hooks too much after that.

3) Now that you KNOW the exact hands, did you have correct pot odds to call Dave's turn bet? With 13 clean outs we're at 28%to catch with 1 to come or roughly 3/1. 22% investment on a 28% return (13500 to win 61250), so yes (if a heart fell, lisa was gonna pay us off too, so return would have been even better than that)
4) How about your odds on each street...odds of all types?

5) What things might you have done differently in this hand? I would have raised preflop, barring that a raise on the flop, and a second barrel turn bet might have taken this down (both would have put a huge dent in us if unsuccessful) knowing the hands, I think our best shot at taking this down was flat pre, raise flop, and barrel the turn.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 09:53 AM..
 

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