Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

Was this a good spot to put my tournament life on the line?

 
Old
Default
Was this a good spot to put my tournament life on the line? - Sun Aug 21, 2011, 06:17 AM
(#1)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16


This was the PSO, so if I would be interested in the points for the league this would have been a bad play beyond doubt. However, I'm just trying to win the tournament, just for fun and practice.

I have a decent sized stack, over twice the tournament average, and get dealt JJ. I raise from early position and immediately get raised all in by the big stack acting directly after me. Now I must emphasize, would he be the only raiser, I'd probably have laid them down, since I would have had no interest in getting into a race with him here, even though I thought I was the slight favorite here.

However, he gets called by a decent sized stack after him. At this point I put both of them on AK to KQ or a smaller pair. I realize a bigger pair is always a possibility (mainly for the big stack) but I don't think either of them has it at this point. The reason I decide to make a call here, is because they're in each other's range, blocking potential outs, while my jacks block straight outs for both of them. I think I'm getting much better than a coin flip here (60+ / 40- to win). Also, I only have to beat the big stack to survive. I thought it was worth it.

As you can see, I lost the hand, but I think I picked a decent spot here. If I would have won this hand, I would have been among the 10 biggest stacks in the tournament and I think I could have gone very deep. Sometimes you just get unlucky.

Any thought? Was this a decent spot, or do you guys think I should have waited?
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 21, 2011, 09:42 AM
(#2)
Crumblepie's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 204
For myself, I think that I would have open-raised 1200 chips and let it go when he goes all in.

For me, the position is to early to go all the way with jacks. There is no need to go all in (yet) with half a hand.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 21, 2011, 11:30 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
JJ against 2 opps OOP is an instant muck to me, especially to two pushes.

Your reasoning on the odds is incorrect.
You're in a coin flip against ONLY ONE opponent (with 2 overs), which you will win 56% of the time.
Against 2 opps with overs, you will only win the hand 34% of the time.

Due to the fact that you're out of position and will only win about 1/3 of the time, it's not worth putting your tourney life on the line with. You need to be patient and find a hand when you're well ahead in the hand to get all your chips into.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 21, 2011, 05:45 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Unfortunately Nils...no I do not think it was a good spot HERE...

Some of your thought processes are good, but others miss the mark just a bit in my opinion. Let's take a look at each of your statements, even those which are not directly related to the question here, ok?

This was the PSO, so if I would be interested in the points for the league this would have been a bad play beyond doubt. However, I'm just trying to win the tournament, just for fun and practice.


This statement must be taken as "true" since it addresses your willingness to "gamble".
The only thing this describes is your PERSONAL reasoning for your thinking process, and as such it cannot be disputed.

However the last part, "for fun and practice", implies that you are not merely tossing off your stack simply because it is a free roll, and that you do wish to play this much as you would a "normal" MTT. Without monthly cumulative scoring considerations, the "practice" implies to me that you still want to play a SOLID standard MTT game.

Correct?

I have a decent sized stack, over twice the tournament average, and get dealt JJ. I raise from early position and immediately get raised all in by the big stack acting directly after me. Now I must emphasize, would he be the only raiser, I'd probably have laid them down, since I would have had no interest in getting into a race with him here, even though I thought I was the slight favorite here.


Raising JJ in EP is perfectly fine for your stack here, and your raise sizing (3.4 times BB) was also perfectly "normal" for the blind level since there are antes as well.

When the bigger stack goes all in for more chips that you have, your thought process here: "I do not want to race for all my chips because I have too much play in my stack to want that right now" is definately a good one. With double the average stack in the event, and only 5.4% of a 62BB stack in the pot now, a deep stack "race" is definately not something you "need". This is especially true since you are very likely to only be a SMALL favorite (if a favorite at all), and you might also be a big under-dog.

Very good thinking here...

However, he gets called by a decent sized stack after him.


THIS is where I think your thinking starts to get a little bit skewed...

The caller of the all-in is a "decent" sized stack here, and if you can fade both players you will increase your stack an additional 14BB or so over just a race versus the Big stack shover.

BUT...

The re-ship adds only about 23% more to what you might win if you take the "race" against the bigger stack for all your chips.

While the RANGE you'd apply for this short stacked Villain (14.33BB) would have a bearing upon how you'd view your overall chances versus the big stack, the chance to win 4300 chips more or less in this spot really does NOT effect your overall tourney equity decision much. Consider...

- 4300 chips more or less will be a very SMALL amount within 1 or 2 levels

- You are STILL facing a bust out situation if you lose to the big stack


So...

While the additional 4330 in chips is "nice", the benefit you'd gain from changing a "no race" decision against the big stack shover here is really not that great.

Your RISK LEVEL stays exactly the same though; you will bust if you lose.

Based upon the amount of playability in your stack (59BB give or take), as well as your stack size being roughly double the tourney average, I think you'd be better served by changing your race/no race thoughts only if you are looking at 75%+ "additional chips" over a straight double up (14k "extra" chips in the pot).

If your stack were around 30BB and an average size, then you'd may consider 50%+ as enough extra to change your thoughts.

If your stack were right around 20BB then 23% is probably a good enough amount to start thinking about changing your decision.

Below 15BB - 17BB, you are probably ready to start thinking about courting race situations for all your chips even without any extra money in the pot.

NOTE: These are my personal MTT risk tolerance levels, and are not set in stone anywhere. The main thing you should take from this is simply that the MORE CHIPS you hold, the more "playability" left in your stack if you fold, the less willing you should be to court races for all your chips. Even if you are given a small overlay, if you bust off that big stack as a small favorite (or a small dog), you are still OUT. Make the decision change only when then extra chips means a significant change in your tourney "Q" over a simple double up.

(For a definition of "Q", see this link: http://www.learn2holdem.com/poker-st...ment-poker.htm )

I realize a bigger pair is always a possibility (mainly for the big stack) but I don't think either of them has it at this point. The reason I decide to make a call here, is because they're in each other's range, blocking potential outs, while my jacks block straight outs for both of them. I think I'm getting much better than a coin flip here (60+ / 40- to win).

Now we start to get into your ranging thoughts on the villains. Let's take a look...

- You realize a bigger PP is possible, and your reads tell you that this is especially true for the BIG STACK.

Why?

There is no need to explain this really, but since you DO have this read, you now have to realize that the ONLY player you really "must" beat in this hand to chip up decently is the big stack. I am guessing this is a primary reason why you are not willing to race heads up versus the big stack, right?

OK...

You state you think you are roughly 60/40 versus the big stack now, because there is a greater chance they are "sharing" outs.

Errrrrrnt! THIS is a major flaw in your thought processes on ranging...

You are 60/40 versus the range you STATE, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/TT/99/88 (actually 63.6%), but if you think the big stack MIGHT do this with a bigger pocket pair than JJ BEFORE the shortie re-shoves, why are those not in your range info AFTER he re-shoves?

If you include AA/KK/QQ into the range versus just the big stack, your equity falls to 54.7% (vs AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/pp 88+), and you are right back where you started: in a near RACE situation. If you credit the big stack for a range of only TT+ on the pp (as well as the AJ+ aces and KQ), you are only 50.8%.

Aren't you the one who stated at the start that you were not willing to race for stacks versus that bigger stack?

As for them "stealing" each others outs, yes this does improve your chances versus the big stack. Since the big stack is the only stack you need to worry about, you must look at the overall EFFECT of each hand in the short stack's range on your chances versus the Big stack's range. Let's look...

We range Big stack on: AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/pp 88+ (all un-paired cards are sutied or off suit)
We range the short stack the same way.

The EFFECTS on our equity for all the hands held by the short stack are:

Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has 88 = 52.7
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has 99 = 52.6
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has TT = 52.9
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has JJ = 44.8
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has QQ = 58.8 (goes up, because fewer overs can be held by big stack)
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has KK = 58.8
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AA = 59.1
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AKo = 60.4
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AKs = 60.3
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AQo = 60.4
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AQs = 60.3
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AJo = 52.9
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has AJs = 52.9
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has KQo = 60.0
Our equity vs Big Stack if shortie has KQs = 59.9


If all these are equally likely, then we can AVERAGE them, to get our equity effects versus JUST the big stack.

That average is: 56.45%

Again, very near a "race", and not 60/40...

Also, I only have to beat the big stack to survive. I thought it was worth it.

You ARE correct: all you have to do is beat the big stack.

If you think it is "worth it", that is fine...that is totally down to personal risk acceptance.

But I'd ask you this if you STILL think it was worth it after reading the above stuff:

Why is it NOT worth it to take a race versus the big stack as the "good side" (giving you usually around 53/54% equity), yet with so little additional money to be won it is NOW worth a "race" with only about 56.5% equity?

As you can see, I lost the hand, but I think I picked a decent spot here. If I would have won this hand, I would have been among the 10 biggest stacks in the tournament and I think I could have gone very deep. Sometimes you just get unlucky.

Any thought? Was this a decent spot, or do you guys think I should have waited?


The fact is you would have been very near to the top 10 stacks if you had been willing to take the "race" versus just the big stack; yet you were reluctant to do that.

At the middle stage of an MTT, the "benefit" of holding a big stack is that it tends to insulate you from getting all-in; as a top 10 stack now, you would have a high chance of being the biggest stack at any table you are on. This would have been true though whether or not the additional 4330 chips were in the pot; you may not have been top 10 but you WOULD have a strong chance of being big stack at any table, thus have "insulation" against bust out.

So what it all boils down to is this:

What changed to make you now willing to take race?

- As you can see, your overall chance to win versus the big stack actually goes up VERY LITTLE as a result of the potential shared outs.

- Your stack would have still been gone if you lost.

- The additional money in the pot from the 2nd all-in was not going to materially change you ability to win the MTT if you did survive an all-in here.


If you say the additional 2% or so equity was enough to make it worthwhile for you, fine. That is a personal choice.

But I think you made 2 fundemental "mistakes" in this decision process...

1) You used ineffective ranging.

By excluding hands which might be well ahead of you from your ranging, you gave yourself the most FAVORABLE conditions for a call.
This is "wishful thinking"...

2) You then over-estimated the benefits of shared outs to your overall chance of winning.

This is not a TERRIBLE mistake to make really, and the fact is you DID improve a bit overall as a result of the 2nd all-in.

But by over-estimating the effect of this benefit, you took a decision you would not have made, and turned it into one you now were willing to make.

FINALLY...

"Going for it" because of the 4330 "extra" chips in the pot is not really a "mistake" if you feel those ARE important enough to make the risk worth it. Me, my personal risk assessment says it is not enough to run the risk, but I cannot fault someone for feeling differently.

So as I stated at the start, I do think you "thought thru" this hand, but there may be some relatively EASY TO MISS "dis-connects" to your thought processes here.

Fact is, had you won you'd be patting yourself on the back and stacking chips for a nice deep run. It just didn't happen that way. Had you gone with your "gut feeling" from the start, avoid the race for stacks, then you;d have been better off. Looking back now, it is relatively easy to see that the extra benefits and extra chances to win might NOT have been enough to change your original decision to fold, but it is a lot harder "in the moment" to see all those things...

So good hand, and better luck next time!
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 22, 2011, 12:03 PM
(#5)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
I see what you're saying JDean; thanks again for a great analysis.

I just have one more thing regarding this spot here that I'd like to get your opinion on. In this case, the big stack played tight enough so that I could put him on a big hand. However, let's say that he'd have been playing aggressive 'big stack poker', would that have affected your decision? JJ, to me, is typically a hand that I'd fold with against a tight range and call with against a loose range (most of the time). But I'm wondering what your thoughts are on JJ against an all in by a player with a loose range, but who has you covered (with stack sizes as in this spot). I'm guessing the 'playability' of the stack would still make you fold? (or?)
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 22, 2011, 12:54 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
It'll really depend on where you're at in the tourney. Before ITM, it's going to be a muck for me. After getting ITM, then it's more of a shove (against 1 opp, not 2).

Against a tight opponent that shoves, it's a muck anytime I'm above 5-10 BB.
 
Old
Default
Mon Aug 22, 2011, 10:02 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by NL_Niels View Post
I see what you're saying JDean; thanks again for a great analysis.

I just have one more thing regarding this spot here that I'd like to get your opinion on. In this case, the big stack played tight enough so that I could put him on a big hand. However, let's say that he'd have been playing aggressive 'big stack poker', would that have affected your decision? JJ, to me, is typically a hand that I'd fold with against a tight range and call with against a loose range (most of the time). But I'm wondering what your thoughts are on JJ against an all in by a player with a loose range, but who has you covered (with stack sizes as in this spot). I'm guessing the 'playability' of the stack would still make you fold? (or?)
Depends how loose the range for the big stack is Nils.

Fact is, you were ahead here (against the RANGE) no matter whether you decided to call or fold.

The only reaosn I commented as I did was that you said you were mucking to the big stack jam heads up; I did not see ENOUGH reason in the shortie coming along to change that thought really. So honestly, whether or not you do call HERE is your personal choice really, as long as your read is solid (and it seems to be); afterall, it is a personal choice whether you think 56% is "enough" to risk your tourney life...ya know?

If you LOOSEN the big stack's range, then obviously your choice to come along is going to be better equity than versus a tighter range. In this spot, you are sitll only really worrying aobut beating the big stack, as that 4300 is a little bit "moot" in terms of your call. I say this because so long as you do beat the big stack you will still se quite a large chip up over your start stack...

But let's look at it in terms of math:

Say Big stack's range is now:
ANY pp, ANY 2 broadways, ANY A7+...

Let's still say shortie's range is what it was before: pp 88+, AJ+, KQ.

Ok...

Versus big stack you have a BASE 66.4% equity.
That is pretty good, and you'd need to feel you have quite a STRONG "skill advantage" over the entire MTT field to pass up that sort of edge.

BUT...

As we saw above, the range of what the shortie will stand on will change your equity versus the big stack due to the absorption of some of the big stacks outs, as well as potential loss of re-draw outs for you.

If shortie has:

88 your equity = 65.5
99 your equity = 65.5
TT your equity = 64.9
JJ your equity = 59.5
QQ your equity = 69.2
KK your equity = 69.1
AA your equity = 70.6
AKo your equity = 71.0
AKs your equity = 70.9
AQo your equity = 71.0
AQs your equity = 70.9
AJo your equity = 66.0
AJs your equity = 66.1
KQo your equity = 69.8
KQs your equity = 69.8
(all these are your equity vs big stack's range of course!)

AVERAGE = 67.98% equity versus Big Stack with short stack coming along.

Now...

Would you pass up that sort of edge ersus a "loose" range for the big stack?

I wouldn't...

Last edited by JDean; Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 12:11 AM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Aug 23, 2011, 12:26 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK...

Slight modification:

I wouldn't IF...

A min cash is relatively insignifcant for me, whereas a deep run is.

Such events where making a min cash IS "important" might be:

A "flat" pay structure event, like a Sattie where all iITM finishers get a ticket to an MTT, would mean a min cash is "as significant" as a deep run...therefore I'd be more apt to fold.

A cumulative score league, where I am playing for that cumulative score (like PSO), means I'm probably more apt to dump as well. A "bad luck" finish here hurts me more than a deep run benefits me in that situation. (This doesnt "count" for you here, because you state you are palying a pso game like a "normal" mtt).

A "big dollar" MTT that I sattie'd into cheaply, like the WSOP ME, where a 19k min cash would be xtremely LARGE for my bank roll. In this case, simply cashing at all has a ton of benefit for me, thus I'd be more loathe to bust short of the cash...since I'd probably not get another chance any time soon.

See?
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com