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EXPERT hand analysis please

 
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EXPERT hand analysis please - Tue Aug 23, 2011, 11:05 AM
(#1)
Slotts1's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3
Hi there, my first post after busting out of a live event and would like opinions on how I played the hand and how maybe I should have
My stack was around 22k blinds were 600/1200 with a 100 running ante. Right here goes - player 1 UTG (good player) limps the 1200bb folded to me UTG + 3 I have 10/10 was a little worried by the limp as he not done this before so decided to call, folded round to button who makes it 7.6k(another good player) the guy UTG folds action back on me!! Conservative play just fold / agressive play go all-in and silly play just call!(unless i push all-in on just about any flop) Gave it some thought and decided he could be squeezing worse hands and his overall range was AK down to maybe A8 maybe 55 66 77 88 99 plus the 4 hands that have me crushed!! Didnt think he was on total air but decided to shove as I had under rep. my hand and had a good table image and thought I could possibly get a fold from smaller pairs and week A`s but that was probably a bit optimistic. He called with AQ hearts. . . . low flop Q hit turn OUT! Obviously having seen the two hands the call and shove most flops may have worked but hindsight is a wonderful thing! Should I be happy to be racing at that point as 53% fav ? Or have I overplayed my hand in relation to blinds? I was annoyed with myself after the hand as I had played well and quite tight upto that point and thought I could have found a better than 53% spot had I waited Opinions greatly appreciated
Slotts 1
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 12:58 PM
(#2)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Im not an expert but I dont know man if I were you I would have shoved all in preflop before he raised to put pressure on him especially if you have a tight table image. I think limping in is ok but maybe you could have folded to a raise that big I dont think hes trying to steal with that kind of raise your probably beat or going to be in a race.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 01:15 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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were you already ITM, or nearing it? Also, was it still a full table?? Knowing that would affect my answer.

The UTG limp normally signifies a small pkt pair (or a tricky player slowplaying AA or KK, which can get them in trouble by letting others see a flop). Instead of calling the limp with 10's, I'd have made a std raise to 2.5-3BB.
That, in most cases would accomplish alot for you preflop.... assuming the others are good players.... which may or may not be the case. It will probably get the AQ player to just call your bet, instead of making a huge raise. It will also probably get a small pkt pair from the UTG player to fold. That way you can see the flop cheaper and re-evaluate after it. Also, since you're out of position, it also will give more credibility to a continuation bet/shove.
If they both just called, you see the flop and if there are overs on it, you can fold to a large bet (and still have enough chips to shove into a later pot when you know you're ahead). If you got 3 unders on the flop, I'd jam it in right there.

If it was a short table, so blinds would hit you more often.... instead of limping, I'd have immediately shoved (on a full table I try to wait to do that until I'm at an M of about 5... you're at about 7 if it's a full table). The only way I wouldn't shove to start in this situation was if there were lower stacks than me and there were decent payout increases for each place that I'd gain by letting them get ko'd first. If that was the case, I'd have std raised and then mucked if they made a large re-raise.

If I were already ITM, it would tend to make me shove more often (as you did, but I'd have wanted to shove first... before the other player gets pot-committed).

By limping first, the opp will be putting you on a small/mid pair too... and if he's got a larger stack than you and the chips to play with... if I were them, I'd be in a race, in a second, to try and eliminate a player, as they've got to figure they have two over cards... if you had a large pair or AK, AQ, etc.. you'd have raised initially. By limping, while a cat 1 hand is still possible, it's not likely and most opps will not include them in your hand range... losing all of the fold equity.

Hope you were already ITM and made some $$$ from it!
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 02:24 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Opponent stack sizes are relevant.

I don't think getting it in pre with TT on 18 bb's is bad. Raise/folding would be worse tbh.

You've mis-classified UTG, he's not a good player.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 02:46 PM
(#5)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
If he made a 2.5 raise and the other guy three bet him does he have to go all in or would it be ok for him to fold tens?
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 02:51 PM
(#6)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
For an example if he raised 2.5x the big blind what if the guy after him reraised him all in would it be ok to fold?
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 03:16 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerstar671 View Post
If he made a 2.5 raise and the other guy three bet him does he have to go all in or would it be ok for him to fold tens?
I think it's generally going to be a spew raise/folding TT on an 18 bb stack. If the guy 3-betting were super tight/conservative/nitty I think I can find a fold. Generally players who are under 20 bigs will be shoving enough big aces and underpairs to TT (and sometimes worse) to make getting it in correct. This is also why having opponent stack sizes is so relevant, it can impact their 3b range.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 04:11 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Limping TT in EP on your stack size is not really terrible at all.

If you have a variety of villain types behind you, it allows you the option of FOLDING to a raise pretty cheaply (versus tight raiser, or a tight short stack "stand"), FLATTING a small raise (not optimal except versus VERY SPECIFIC types), or as you did here, jamming over a light raiser. It also allows relatively cheap "fit or fold" play post flop if you are not raised. If you were 10BB or less, you'd be certainly too short to limp, and 10BB to 15BB would be a questionable limp/fold size, but on 18BB I do not think you are wounding yourself TOO much if you do have to limp/fold in an to attmept to see a flop and possibly go from there.

As for your shove...

Based on your range read, the raising Villain is in pretty bad shape versus your TT; you have 59.8% equity.
(Note: I am saying this about A8+, pp 55+, KJ+, QJs as his range, or a 14.5% raise range versus the 2 limpers).

But if you factor his CALL RANGE, which eliminates the "weak Aces, and small pp", then you'll win a good chip up quite a bit of the time when he FOLDS, and will have about a 50% equity versus a range of pp 99+, AT+, KQ. The question then becomes: is narrowing his raise range to say he will only CALL at the top end of that raise range a valid assumption?

As TheLangolier points out, the raiser's stack size is important to know if you are going to narrow a CALL range out of this raise range. 7600 would have to represent quite a SMALL portion of the Villain's stack (on the order of 10% or less) for him to have any real chance to fold at all here, given the odds your shove is laying (13.2k to call into a 33.5k pot, you laid 2.5 to 1 with your shove), and even then he could feel he can "afford" a somewhat weak call. I think this means you can assume that AT THEY VERY WORST, we are looking at a call range as I outlined above, and his actual call range might be even wider than that. This is totally in line with the thoughts you put out in your post, so your thinking in the hand does appear to be pretty solid as to where you are at...

That puts the question firmly back on whether 50%+ equity is "enough" to want to race an 18BB stack.

I'll be honest Slotts1, that is pretty much a PERSONAL DECISION.

It is very hard for someone outside of the decision to say you are "wrong" in doing it, or clearly "right" either, based on the info you've given.
Factors which may weigh in are:

- How beneficial is a min cash to you in this event?
- How comfortable are you in playing a small stack?
- How much "skill advantage" do you feel you have on your table, AND on the entire field reamining in the mtt?
- How far are you from the next "stage" of the MTT, and what will your 17BB stack (if you fold) give you in terms of play-ability at that next stage?
- How fast are the blinds escalating, or how fast are they coming back to you (per JWK's short table thought)?

ETC...

Altogether though, I cannot see any fault in your thought patterns here, and all those point to you have better than a 50% chance to double if you get called.
As long as that is true, then whether or not you should re-shove an 18BB stack here is all down to the way YOU feel...

I don't think either choice could be called "wrong" in this spot.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 07:24 PM
(#9)
Slotts1's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3
Hi guys thanks for the posts I really appreciate the feedback good to here other peoples views

To answer JWK24 yes I was in the money already it was day 2 at DTD Nottingham 172 players left from the 400 that started day 2 and yes it was still a full table but I liked your answer without that info

Stack size was 1500 less than mine which I should realise he isnt folding after raising 1/3 of his stack !!
Same as if I raise 2.5 or 3 x bb maybe a bit more with UTG limper I should probably call if the button shoves unless ultra tight player, then same result would have been the race I got.

As JWK points out If i do standard raise and the AQ does flats behind I would shove the 5 4 2 flop that came down and prob win it there but as you said stack size is important so would he flat AQ hearts with a 20.5k stack ?? Maybe the money was going in however I played it lol

Last edited by Slotts1; Tue Aug 23, 2011 at 07:52 PM.. Reason: mis clicked before i finished lol
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 08:33 PM
(#10)
Widzywidzy^^'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
Didn't read too much into this but the main problem I have is the call pf, you aren't advertising the strength of your hand here at all which you might think is good as its poker and you don't exactly want people knowing what you have right? But no, if you raise pf then players 3betting you have a much tighter range than when they raise limps, giving you a much easier decision based on the players tendancies, position, stack sizes etc.

It is never a bad idea to advertise a monster when you have a hand like 88-JJ as to avoid players with hands that are flipping with yours having an easy raising decision.

As played a 4x raise to compensate for the limp would possibly see an AQs flat IP, meaning you could cbet flop and take it. If you get 3bet pf then I think shoving isn't bad.
 
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Tue Aug 23, 2011, 09:11 PM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slotts1 View Post
Stack size was 1500 less than mine which I should realise he isnt folding after raising 1/3 of his stack !!
Same as if I raise 2.5 or 3 x bb maybe a bit more with UTG limper I should probably call if the button shoves unless ultra tight player, then same result would have been the race I got.

As JWK points out If i do standard raise and the AQ does flats behind I would shove the 5 4 2 flop that came down and prob win it there but as you said stack size is important so would he flat AQ hearts with a 20.5k stack ?? Maybe the money was going in however I played it lol
a 1/3 stack raise is normally where the committment point is, because it'll price in a hand (normally will put the pot at about 2-1 odds).

You're right, with that flop, the $$ is probably going in regardless. They may fold, but unless they put you on a set, they probably think they're in a race and they'll be getting pot odds to call your shove, if so. The one thing that may have turned the hand would be for you to raise, they flat (for less than what they raised to)... then they might not have the quite the pot odds they need to call your push on the flop... but... they could still make that call too.

CONGRATS on getting to day 2 and cashing
 
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Sat Aug 27, 2011, 11:02 AM
(#12)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Hey Slotts1,

You ask a very good question. You put yourself in a tough spot and then you asked this question to yourself. It is a really good idea to plan how you will play the hand before you play it. So, rather than asking yourself what to do after getting in a tough spot, ask yourself what you would do before! Before limping after the UTG limp, ask yourself, "What will I do if there is a raise from the button? The SB? The BB?... do I want to commit my stack in a race here?"

Personally, I would not want to fold my tens to the raise in that spot considering the buttons probable range. My point is though, if you had considered this situation ahead of time, you would of had the option to fold or raise preflop.
 

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