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A Question for PSO'ers...

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A Question for PSO'ers... - Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:01 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Here goes:

You are in the BB with a 5 blind stack (1 of those posted, 4BB behind).

You are roughly 25 people from the money, and are one of the 5 smallest stacks left in the event (thus you have almost no chance to ladder climb to a cash).

It folds to the button, who is a large stack (roughly 60BB or so), and who raises enough to put you all in.

SB FOLDS.

Would you rather CALL that raise to make your "stand" holding:

88?

OR

AKo?

...and why do you choose the option you do?

ALSO...

If the MTT is a standard pay out format, would you ever consider FOLDING either hand versus a 25% VPiP raiser?

If so, why?

.................................................. .........

I'm and curious to see the answers...

Last edited by JDean; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 04:03 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 05:15 AM
(#2)
Widzywidzy^^'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
88 because it plays better against ATC.

Plus every time I get AK I bust the premier league!

 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 05:15 AM
(#3)
Pentire's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 117
If the small blind was a small stack too, he could be making this play with any two cards (you should be noticing whether or not he has been using his stack to bully). In this case you should be in decent shape with either hand and you should not be folding.

If he had to respect the SB, he is raising with a narrower range. You are still calling. Are you really going to get a better chance to double up (and more) before the whole table doesn't care about your stack ( you may already be in that spot).
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 05:17 AM
(#4)
Widzywidzy^^'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
Also no, never folding vs 25% vpip big stack exploiting bubble. Actually, probably never folding period, since there is a very high risk of not making a cash if you fold, and a guaranteed cash if you call and win. Also calling because MTTs shouldnt be played to try and make mincashes!
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 06:42 AM
(#5)
KOingDonks's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 322
Quote:
Originally Posted by Widzywidzy^^ View Post
88 because it plays better against ATC.

Plus every time I get AK I bust the premier league!

My problem as well, i see others winning on AK but i have lost every single AK at showdown this month in premier league, only time i win on em is when every1 folds. So id go with 88
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 06:45 AM
(#6)
gatehouse999's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 259
No brainer, 88 because its a ready made hand, the AK still has to hit.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 06:48 AM
(#7)
KOingDonks's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 322
Quote:
Originally Posted by KOingDonks View Post
My problem as well, i see others winning on AK but i have lost every single AK at showdown this month in premier league, only time i win on em is when every1 folds. So id go with 88
My last 2 tourneys i didnt want to add the rest of them it would take lots of space as i stated every AK at showdown this month was a losing hand for me, guess coming 3rd last month was and will be the only highlight for me here at PSO. GL ALL




Last edited by KOingDonks; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 06:59 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 08:02 AM
(#8)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Interesting question JD... Having giving it some thought my preferred hand would be AKo as it plays better against a wider range A#, K#, Q# and you still have approx. 44% equity against mid or small pair e.g. 77, 66 etc... whilst 88 is a coin toss with 55% equity against any 2 over cards and you're only ever dominating smaller pairs.

That said... I'm shoving in this position with either hand with only 5BB irrespective of villain's VPIP.

Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:22 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gatehouse999 View Post
No brainer, 88 because its a ready made hand, the AK still has to hit.
Not exactly, the "AK isn't a made hand" argument is flawed... AK is a made hand against all non pocket pairs (all unpaired hole cards need to hit vs AK). The same is true of 88 of course, except vs. 99-KK where both AK and 88 need to hit and AK fairs a ton better.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:24 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
And I'll take AK.

If we knew the opener were raising ATC then 88 would fair slightly better, but vs a 25% range as stated AK is way better.

Folding either of these hands in this situation would be atrocious imo.

Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 02:10 PM.. Reason: I can't spell
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:43 AM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
First of all, i'd be thrilled to death to see either one in front of me on 5 bb, and hopefully none of us are getting there any other way than busting to that short, as you've lost all FE by then. I'm not sure if you mean 25% VPIP or PFR... not that it really matters much on 5 bb, cuz even if he had a PFR of say 5% i'm pretty sure i'm still takin' the gamble w/ either hand, as 88 still sqeaks into the bottom of that range (5%ish), and a button raise on a big stack is going to be even wider than than his average a descent amount of the time. I'd probably prefer the AKo just because it plays a little better against the top of that range. since both hands are going to win unimproved against 25% a good enough amount of the time, there's no way i'm finding a fold button with either. I'm never "satisfied" w/ a min cash in one of these, so a double NOW is much needed to have any chance of getting deep. There's my .02
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:53 AM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
And even if you got to 5bb w/ KK on a J high board, there's always 10/9s to chip you back up right Dave? (watched for a few last night) how'd you fair after that? Sorry for the slight derail JD...
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 01:08 PM
(#13)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hmmmm,well 25 from the money in the old PSO format was not close enough to turtle home to a cash as the blinds will be high enough that the next rotation would blind you off. And making an ITM in that format WAS ladder-climbing because of the point differential between a cash and an bubble. But 25 away is too many so it's a snap call (after bleeding your clock of course...).

The new format? Meh,haven't played either but I'm sure that in the Premier league there is zero chance of making it on 4 remaining blinds if you fold here so play the hand. Open league sounds like it's so heavily populated with "penny-pushers" that you may be able to turtle home after a fold here,and if that's the case then a fold is a valid play (as perverse as that is).

Me I would also be quite happy to see either of these hands with 5 bb's left,but I would lean slightly in favor of having the AK.

As to folding this hand under any circumstances 25 from the money in a standard cash MTT,if you do that cash out whatever you have left on this or any other site and take up cribbage.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 01:22 PM
(#14)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post

As to folding this hand under any circumstances 25 from the money in a standard cash MTT,if you do that cash out whatever you have left on this or any other site and take up cribbage.
"29" oops did I say too much?
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:21 PM
(#15)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
I find myself agreeing with mtnestegg on this, when your that low, either would have me happily shoving all in.

Any two pictures or any pair bigger than a five is effectively a hot meal to a tramp, they have good odds going in, two headed, your most likely to be about 50-50. That low in chips, that's about as good as it's going to get.

If I was to pick between them, though, I'd probably choose the machine guns, on account of the fact they'd be good to have up against any non pair, and up against pairs, if you hit the pots in the bag.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:29 PM
(#16)
spike8998's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 853
I'm shoving here with basically ATC
But I would prefer AK over the 88
Ok so 88 is made hand vs an unpaired hand ie:AK AQ AJ were the villian needs to hit but if he's got 99 TT JJ QQ your 8's need to hit with only 2 outs
So I'd go with AK vs these paired hands , giving you 6 outs rather than 2 with 8's plus if villian has Ax Kx Qx Jx I am ahead , hopefully , till the fat lady sings

P.S. What would you do JDean & your reason please ?

Last edited by spike8998; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 04:33 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:36 PM
(#17)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I'll take the AKo every time. To quote 'No Limit Holdem Theory and Practice', "The only hand AK truely fears is AA". AK is only a huge dog against AA, and only a moderate dog against KK. Against all other hands you will be in rather good shape.

With 88 your really in trouble if you run into 99,TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:47 PM
(#18)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
PSO league or otherwise I stand on both hands, were favorite over villains range in either case so time to get it in.

88 is 54% vs this range.
Ak is 63% vs this range.

AKo is a much bigger equity favorite over a 25% range because it crushes all the weaker Ax and Kx hands, while 88 is only crushing the lower pairs and flipping with Ax and Kx.

Give me AK all day.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 05:02 PM
(#19)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
just maybe a simple thought!!

only 4 BB left?? i would probably shove both noth matter what!!

but if i have to choose it would be the AK just because of the chance he hold AT- and tries to steal

Last edited by 77wopke77; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 05:02 PM.. Reason: or any low pairs or A cards lower then AK
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 06:39 PM
(#20)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I put this out here because it was NOT "immediately appearent" which I'd prefer. I had to think about it some before I actually posted the question here, and I wanted to see if you guys (and girls) were thinkign along the same lines. Thanks for the responses! I'll tell you my thoughts about your comments now...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Widzywidzy^^ View Post
88 because it plays better against ATC.

Plus every time I get AK I bust the premier league!

This may seem like a sort of an "off hand" joking remark, but it really does have a grain of truth!

I'd rather have 88 too, if the range IS ATC too.

So WidzyWidzy saying he always gets busted on AK, while said jokingly I'm sure, really does hold "sense" in there.

While AK is going to be well ahead of any other un-paired hand, getting to see all 5 board cards means that the ATC hand will have near a 50% chance to make at least a pair. You'll have the same near 50% chance to pair, plus the benefit of winning if NEITHER of you pair, but if you do not pair and villain DOES, you lose. It would be better to START with a pair already, and take away a lot of the cards lower than an 8 he MIGHT have as outs in a "race to pair" situation by holding 88.

PLUS...

The "domination threat" with 88 is LOWER because the dominating hands for 88 are such a small part of an ATC range.

so I definately agree with this...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Widzywidzy^^ View Post
Also no, never folding vs 25% vpip big stack exploiting bubble. Actually, probably never folding period, since there is a very high risk of not making a cash if you fold, and a guaranteed cash if you call and win. Also calling because MTTs shouldnt be played to try and make mincashes!
Those statements as well are really really spot on too.

The comment re: not playing for min cashes in standard MTTs is so true that we are going to WANT to stand on either hand, and happily so, against any reasonable range; even tight ones.

That is true except MAYBE against only the most extreme nits (I'm talking super nits who would only raise on AA/KK! Super rare indeed), and the ONLY reason we'd even fold vs. Uber-Nits is that with a 2 hand range read, we MIGHT have a better chance finding a better spot if we waited. But somewhere in Sklansky (not sure which book, or where) you will find a statement to the effect that: "you are ALWAYS facing a percentage chance your opponent is bluffing". So even if there is only a 1% chance an UBER-NIT is "bluffing", and even if his "bluffs" are made with hands like AK or AQ and the like, I am not so certain we could find a fold with EITHER of these hands.

Suffice it to say, given the info I gave this is NOT an UBER-NIT, so Widzy is spot on in my opinion.

Thanks for the reply.
 

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