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Interesting Live nlhe hand

 
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Interesting Live nlhe hand - Tue Aug 30, 2011, 02:54 PM
(#1)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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This was an interesting hand, thought the forum members might like to discuss.

Live $1-$3 NLHE cash game at the casino near my house (buy in is from $100-$300). Line up is fairly typical weak low limit players. Aprox. starting stacks included.

UTG ($100) limps for $3, loose fish who always buys in for the minimum, bleeds himself down to $40-$50 and then stacks the rest off super light multiple times a night, rebuying for $100 each time... he's fresh off his first rebuy having been in the game for a whopping 20 minutes now lol.

UTG+1 (~$350) raises to $11. First time I've played with him, this is his standard open and he's fairly loose-aggressive pre but not wild post.

MP ($200) calls $11... loose-passive fish

LP ($250) calls $11... loose-passive fish

SB (Me $550) calls $10 with 8h7h

BB (short stack) calls $8... Regular at this casino who basically plays a pretty conservative game, almost nitty at times, but has taken a few recent beats and seems like he's tilting a bit... the first time in several sits I've seen him tilt. I'm sitting in the 9 seat and he's in 1, and I can't quite see his stack around the dealer, but he just lost a pot the hand before leaving him fairly short.

UTG calls $8 more.... 100% as expected.

Flop: 2c 3s Jh

I check, it checks around

Turn: (2c 3s Jh) 3h

With everyone showing weakness on the flop (pretty sure Jx or better would have bet in this crowd), being in the blind position (I can reasonably hold a 3 in their eyes or easily have checked to the raiser with a jack on the flop) and picking up the flush draw, I opt to semi-bluff.

I bet $20... I know this is a bit small relative to the size of the pot but trust me, weak live players have no idea how much money is in the pot... this bet is plenty to shake off anyone who doesn't have much.

BB goes all in for $40 total.

Everyone folds back to me, $20 more to call.

Thoughts???

-Preflop thoughts?
-Flop plan to check/fold I think is standard
-Turn approach thoughts?

Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 03:01 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 03:17 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Pretty loose from sb, but gettin' pretty good odds to see the flop. Tough to get good value in that pos if you flop big, (maybe not in that company) I think your short stack reg hit part of that board (not on draw imo), so your probably gonna have to hit to win, but 20 to win 146 is a snap call imo. 7+/1 on a 4/1 draw. I'm takin' that all day long. (especially if you think your guy's a bit tilty right now) lemme guess.... You hit your heart and he turned over quads...

Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 03:20 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 03:25 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
lemme guess.... You hit your heart and he turned over quads...

Hahaha, I will tell the result of course but that is one of the considerations, there is the possibility I'm drawing worse than I think or even drawing dead. How much that possibility should weigh into it is for you (the reader) to decide.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 03:35 PM
(#4)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hahaha, I will tell the result of course but that is one of the considerations, there is the possibility I'm drawing worse than I think or even drawing dead. How much that possibility should weigh into it is for you (the reader) to decide.
not too much based on your read on villain and relative low cost to see the river, you are probably behind, based on hand strength alone.. he probably has A rag maybe A4 or A5 but I would be willing to call
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 03:58 PM
(#5)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I would have folded pre, I'm not as big a fan of SC's as some, I might play it from the button, where I would feel a lot more comfortable bluffing if the situation presented its self. Middling SC's are so difficult for me to play well OOP, Id rather just fold em.

On the turn I don't like bluffing into this many opponents. The thought that Jx would have bet I think is true, however I'm not sure your opponents are ready to give you credit for a 3, you would have to be playing really loose to show up with a 3.

Now conservative "almost nitty" guy goes all in which gives you huge odds on a call. If he's a little tilted he could have A3, but I think he's probably on JJ, 22, AJ, KJ, QJ or higher flush draw. Against this range were in bad shape.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 03:58 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
realistically, you have to figure your behind whatever this guy holds w/ an 8 high, but with what you have to figure is 9 outs, I think ya just gotta make that call. being on tilt he might've made the call from the bb w/ A3s or 2 big hearts, but I think more likely a middle pair he thinks is good. He really can't be tryin to bluff you off w/ that raise. He's gotta have some kind of made hand, but the odds it's a boat or quads I think are pretty slim
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:16 PM
(#7)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Yeah we can't possibly be ahead with 8 high. But even if the guy is shipping 99 or TT were still in bad shape, we only have 18% equity vs those hands. Getting 7.3:1, we need 12% equity to call, so in the long run I suppose we can make the call profitable, but it's definitely marginal.

If the guy is shipping 66 or 55, than it's obvious call, but I don't think he is shoving that wide.

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 04:41 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 04:33 PM
(#8)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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preflop i probably would have folded but ok lets play!!

the way i read it! altough how i think i read!

i think at worst he's on a better flush draw then u! it's cheap to call true but i think u are way behind!

u have 9 outs and good odds so the nubbers add up but i am not that sure!

i would probaly call just because off the odds
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 05:36 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
-Preflop thoughts?
I'm torn, so I'm going to look at all things I can before deciding...

1) NO call in.

I am only flopping a MADE hand about 5% of the time (2 pair+) that I'd be happy to call a jam by the effective stack.

I am facing the strong chance of the initial raiser, the LAG, C-Betting on the order of $30, and without a strong reads that he will fold to a semi-bluff C/R, that price is getting a bit too steep for an 8 or 9 out draw if that is all I flop (the bulk of good flops, beyond single pairs, that I'm going to get from my hand).

I am facing a short stack who may well jam into the bloated pot and not set me a good price for my draw.

2) YES call in.

I am against a passive table, who may well check thru, or bet smaller, letting me draw for decent implied odds (if the shortie folds, effective stack is $200).

It is "only" $11 to take a shot at certainly stacking SOMEONE if I do hit big; and except for the shortie I am stacking at least $200.

My draw type hand is made MORE PLAYABLE by the fact the UTG limp/called in; I can check draw flops, and get good relative position versus the LAG open raiser if the BB does not come along.

If the BB elects to "stand" (more likely than a flat for a big part of his stack), I can easily fold my investment and still have the ability to stack anyone at the table.

3) RE-RAISE to enter instead.

Meh.

I might win the pot outright, but my RR would have to be on the order of $50+ to go.
That is a bit too much faith to put into 87s vs. 4 potential Loose callers in my opinion.

Plus, it is sticking me 100% for the BB's tilt-y action to come.
I'm hating 87h if the BB even calls just because he wants to re-buy and re-start.
(Note: in live play, donking off the rest of a BI is really a pretty common reaction by a short stack who feels he wants to "start fresh", instead of simply adding more to the short stack out of pocket. I do not understand it myself, that's still $50 or so, but it DOES happen!)

So my Decision is...

- The "ABC" play is to FOLD.
- This is simpler, costs me just 1/3rd a BB, and ensures I do not get into any trouble from a chase in the hand.
- Not entirely sure I WANT to "avoid" an investment of $10 when I might have a chance to stack off at least a $200 pile though...

- A Re-Raise is simply too expensive and too risky to like at all...

- I think I am good enough as a player to avoid losing a LARGE POT here because of the relative position I have on the initial raiser.
The 2 most likely people to bet me off this pot are the shortie in the BB (who might jam the flop if he flats, or jam PRE), or the Initial raiser, and in either case I can check the flop and see that before I'm deeper than $11 in the pot.

- Adding to that, a PASSIVE table is just too likely to allow me to pick my own "blocker bet" sizing for any draw I flop, or even check through to give me free cards, for me not to get inolved.

- Since they are BAD PLAYERS, as well as passive, I will almost certainly get a lesser hand to stack off to me if I hit better than 2 pair at any point.

So all in all, i'm certainly "looking left" to see if I can pick up ANY tell by the short stack to direct me here.
If he doesn't give me clear indications he is coming along, I am going to play this I think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
-Flop plan to check/fold I think is standard
Very.

You have essentially no value in your hand, with no clean single card outs at all.

There are too many in the pot to try running a bluff very profitably, even with all the checks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
-Turn approach thoughts?
I think your decision to lead $20 is certainly aggressive.

If you know this semi-bluff has a reasonable chance to work, and it probably does with all the checks, then I cannot say it is BAD.

I'm sure you recognized the fact a short stack Jam now (after your $20 lead) is going to lay you a $20 to win $126 price (6 to 1, even after $5 rake and $1 bad beat jackpot).
I'm also sure you know you will hit the flush on the river about 1 time in 5 (~20% chance).

With the price of the pot giving you only a expectation of win at 14.3% of the time to be "break even" for a call (if a flush you make is good 100% of the time),
you have to assess whether you think there is greater than a 30% chance now a flush will only make you a 2nd best hand.

(Note: I derive that 30% number by taking: 20% - 14% = 6%, That gives the overlay for a 100% flush hit being good chance. Then 6 / 20 = .30 to get how often you can be WRONG, and still be profitable with the given overlay. I am NOT certain this is correct, but it "feels" right to me. I would really appreciate any correction if I am wrong).

So it is really not an automatic" call of his jam, but it may well be close.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 06:40 PM
(#10)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
JD , am I wrong in that i'm adding daves 20$ call to the win pot size? Making the win 146 and thus laying him 7+/1? My odds have been wrong for quite some time if so
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 07:34 PM
(#11)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
You do not add the price of your call to the pot when determining your pot odds.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 11:12 PM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
JD , am I wrong in that i'm adding daves 20$ call to the win pot size? Making the win 146 and thus laying him 7+/1? My odds have been wrong for quite some time if so
Nope. I do not think so.

Dave's FIRST $20 lead is part of the pot. He put that in, and it no longer "belongs" to him.
At that point, if I've added correctly, the pot is $86.

Then the short stack jams in for $40 TOTAL ($20 more for Dave to call).
That amount gets added to the pot, bringing it to $126.

When it comes back to Dave, he is faced with a $20 call, for a chance to win $126...NOT $146.

Remember, he can still FOLD and not invest that $20 at all, so if he does invest it, he is not "winning" that amount.

See?

...of course it could just be my addition of the pot was incorrect, and the pot IS $146 before Dave puts in the last $20. In that case then his odds would be 7 to 1.
 
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Tue Aug 30, 2011, 11:15 PM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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I just re-checked to be POSITIVE.

The pot was $126 when Dave was contemplating calling the remaining $20 from the short stack's shove.

His odds were 6 to 1 (assuming a $5 Illinois rake at 10% pot to a max of $5, and a $1 and beat jack pot drop).
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 12:54 AM
(#14)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
I just re-checked to be POSITIVE.

The pot was $126 when Dave was contemplating calling the remaining $20 from the short stack's shove.
Correct.
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 12:58 AM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
On the turn I don't like bluffing into this many opponents. The thought that Jx would have bet I think is true, however I'm not sure your opponents are ready to give you credit for a 3, you would have to be playing really loose to show up with a 3.
Yeah, I'm not a proponnent of bluffing a large field (semi-bluffing in this case), but the situation was about as ideal as could be for this many opponents, with everyone checking the flop which is a pretty genuine indicator of the field not having much, and the 3 unlikely to change a lot. The biggest concern, ironically, was the BB checking to the raiser with a jack, or holding a 3. So him going all in was kinda gross.

But yes even though I thought this was a good spot for betting the turn, it was certainly ambitious.
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 01:05 AM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
I'm sure you recognized the fact a short stack Jam now (after your $20 lead) is going to lay you a $20 to win $126 price (6 to 1, even after $5 rake and $1 bad beat jackpot).
I'm also sure you know you will hit the flush on the river about 1 time in 5 (~20% chance).
Actually when I made the bet, I didn't know his stack, which is my bad. I couldn't actually see his stack, I knew it was short from losing the last hand, and I knew he was seeing the flop pretty wide in all likelihood because he was on tilt, but I honestly didn't expect him to connect with the board much and be going all in. But ultimately the premise behind this was pretty bad, not being cognizant of how many chips a guy on tilt has... I get -1 for that fail.

Obv yes when he shoves and everyone else folds, I know the price (I even had to ask the dealer at this point if the player was all in, as he was leaning over his space and I couldn't tell for sure and his shove was exactly a min-raise), and I know with 1 card to come I'm about 4-1 against hitting the flush (4.1-1 to be more precise).
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 01:33 AM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Good discussion!

*SPOILER ALERT, IF YOU'RE JUST READING THIS AND WANT TO ANSWER, STOP READING NOW*




I think the discussion points were good, the preflop call decision, the turn bet, and the turn fold/call decision. In game I had to think about each of these decisions before acting, so I thought they were all pretty close.

Preflop: Not a big fan of SC's out of position in a raised pot either, especially with no one else in the pot nearly as deep as I am. But, the one guy playing >100 bb's with me is the preflop aggressor, so that's good, and 3 fish have entered the pot as well... and I am interested in playing pots with the fish. So ultimately I thought 78s was reasonable enough to take a look at the flop with despite my poor absolute position and marginal relative position.

Flop: c/f is a no brainer, we have nothing in a multi-way pot

Turn bet: I've kind of already explained why I bet in this thread, I still think this will be a profitable spot but certainly it's ambitious on my part. I do have 2 players who could have "checked to the raiser" with something on the flop. I wouldn't have pure bluffed here ever, but picking up some hand equity in turning the flush draw I felt was enough to go for it swing the play, all be it, it's still close. (I forgot in my reply to PaidInFull, he said he doesn't think players are ready to give me credit for a 3 just yet... maybe some aren't but I don't need them to give me credit for a 3, credit for a jack will do just fine to shake off the A8's and KT's of the world, and perhaps some pocket pairs or A2 as well... and I certainly may have checked to the raiser with a jack so that sale is plausible to buy).

Turn decision: Well had to tank a bit to think it through. I even said out loud wow this is gross. lol I did the math and know I'm getting roughly 6-1 and am 4-1 to hit the flush. But my flush may not always be good either, if he's got 3x he can fill at the same time I flush. There's a small chance he can have JJ (he should ship that pre on his stack but I'm not sure this guy would), and he certainly could have 22 or 33 in this spot. Again though the boats are all a small part of his range, and he had opened up his preflop range in the last couple orbits having gone on semi-tilt, so I decided his most likely holdings were Jx (probably J9+) or the 3. Ultimately I figured I likely have a small overlay all things considered, and with it being close I will chose to make the play that, if a mistake, is a small mistake and not a large one. Calling and losing $20 is a much smaller mistake than folding a winner in a $126 pot. When the EV is close like this it really doesn't matter much each way though. If the EV of the call were exactly zero, over thousands of trials I'd break even. I thought it should be a small +EV spot with the odds overlay enough to compensate for the times I hit my flush and still lost, so I did call $20.


Result:

River: (2c 3s Jh 3h) Ts

Booo, I missed. Technically I'm required to show down first, but I wait for him to table his jack or whatever and will just muck... it's very common in this game for people to show down out of turn when they think they have the winner, might as well not give any free info out. He doesn't immediately show, so I tap the table (a way of saying "you're good, nice hand"). He looks distressed, makes a gesture like shrugging his shoulders with his hands up like "what?" and then turns over 54. I have to actually ask the dealer what does he have? and stretch my neck to see his hand. Then I table my hand and win the pot with 8 high LOL.

If you're thinking I was being tricky with this post as you never expected him to have 54, I wasn't, really... I was completely stunned at the table as I was certain he had Jx or a 3 or some made hand. I was still in disbelief on the drive home thinking back through some key hands from the session. The moral of that story is players on tilt can really surprise you, even the normally conservative ones. BTW when he saw me table 8 high and get awarded the pot I thought he was going to explode right out of his skin. He then made his best move of the night, he left instead of reloading.
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 03:47 AM
(#18)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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NICE!

...and the moral of the story is that wierd things can happen, and that is why you do not fold when it feels like you get a good price!

BTW...

I read thru my thoughts re him having a hand which makes a flush 2nd best (your drawing dead).

I think what I wrote is muddled.

I was meaning to imply I feel with that method of math (which I'm still not convinced is correct math) that you need to be LESS than 30% chance a flush if made will be good to fold.

If you think a flush would be good 29% of the time only if you made it, you could make a case for the fold.

Questions for you Dave:

1) You say you did not know the shorties stack size when you led $20.
If you KNEW it, would that have changed your action?

1a) It seems to me, if you HAD known, and you checked as a result, a jam by him still lays you right at 4 to 1 to call. Would you have stilled called on THAT price, or would you have figured the bare minimum price needed is not enough with the threat of a 2nd best hand being made if you spike?

2) What do you put your chances of actually running your $20 bet thru that field ABSENT the tilt-y short stack?

I mean when reading thru orignally, I tried hard to find reasons to think it was a good play, and I barely arrived at the check thru indicates worst case with a passive table you set yourself a good price for your 1-to-come draw with a blocker bet. Truth be known, I am personally averse to trying to semi-bluff through too many players...

What percentage of the "benefits" in your $20 lead do you think were the chances you could rep a 3, and was there any percentage that you MIGHT be firing a decent blocker bet that a passive table may not raise?

3) You do realize you are a luck box, right?

45, and the guy does not ship the flop on an open ender, then he thinks it is just find to do so on a 1 card 8 out draw...pfffft!

'course I guess it was followed up pretty quickly by a cooler for you...when he left!



Nice pot.
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 10:13 AM
(#19)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Sweet lol.. So your nit was more than just a little tilty. He was waaayy gone. i'm also interested in your responses to JD's questions..... Especially #3
 
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Wed Aug 31, 2011, 10:27 AM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Questions for you Dave:

1) You say you did not know the shorties stack size when you led $20.
If you KNEW it, would that have changed your action?
No, I think $20 is still about right.

Quote:
1a) It seems to me, if you HAD known, and you checked as a result, a jam by him still lays you right at 4 to 1 to call. Would you have stilled called on THAT price, or would you have figured the bare minimum price needed is not enough with the threat of a 2nd best hand being made if you spike?
I wouldn't check as a result so not sure I get where you're coming from, but no I wouldn't call and check your math, it's 2.5-1 so a fold is very clearly in order.

Quote:
2) What do you put your chances of actually running your $20 bet thru that field ABSENT the tilt-y short stack?
I'd say somewhere between 1/5th and 1/3rd of the time, maybe closer to the lower end of that.

Quote:
What percentage of the "benefits" in your $20 lead do you think were the chances you could rep a 3,
Again, I don't need to be repping a 3, if they believe a J that's plenty. Some of these players might believe it's a 3 or J. And at least 2 of them weren't considering what I had at all, they simply don't have anything and they fold.

Quote:
and was there any percentage that you MIGHT be firing a decent blocker bet that a passive table may not raise?
No, zero, this isn't applicable to the situation.

Quote:
3) You do realize you are a luck box, right?
obv!

Quote:
45, and the guy does not ship the flop on an open ender, then he thinks it is just find to do so on a 1 card 8 out draw...pfffft!
Yeah, if he ships the flop he wins it right there. I'm sure he doesn't think it's fine to do so on the turn normally, he was tilting and tilt makes the rational part of our poker brain check out of the hotel.

Quote:
'course I guess it was followed up pretty quickly by a cooler for you...when he left!
Meh... I suspect he'd have taken a walk and got his head screwed back on straight... ultimately there was much more profit potential in playing pots with the fish.
 

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