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2 pair vs river raise

 
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2 pair vs river raise - Sun Sep 04, 2011, 11:58 AM
(#1)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

Another analysis required here , no reads available to me . Was I right to call the river raise ?





I was unsure about this call , a little in hope I felt at the time but , with showdown equity .

Your thoughts will be appreciated as always .
 
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Sun Sep 04, 2011, 01:36 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Fold pre!
 
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Sun Sep 04, 2011, 01:49 PM
(#3)
jdel54's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 8
Bad call preflop, unless you have reliable stats about your oponent.

Is better to 3-bet preflop with hands like this rather than calling, as you will get much more equity on the hand.
 
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Sun Sep 04, 2011, 02:49 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Answer to main question:

Yes, it is probably ok to call that river LEAD (not a river raise).

Your opponent C/R'ed the turn, and you called.
That is a reasonable indication that his hand is made BEFORE the last club appears.
Just often enough, your improvement MIGHT be enough to give you the pot to really want to fold to a 2/3rd pot bet on the river.

There are a couple bigger questions you should ask though (in my opinion):

1) Why CALL a raise with Q8s?

If the villian is loose enough that Q8s has decent expectations, why not raise to isolate instead?

Calling with 2 players out of the blinds, and both blinds to act behind you, can easily lead to you being forced to FOLD that pretty junk-y hand to a 3Bet. Why not lessen the risk of that 3Bet by raising pre to get heads up with a weak player?

If the villain is a strong player, or on a tighter range, why bother playing a cheese hand like Q8s at all?

2) Why lead the turn after leading the flop on a semi-bluff and getting called?

The flop lead was fine: if the villain did not C-Bet you, there is a good chance he might give up to that bet.

Even if he does call, you still have the outs from your semi-bluff.

But the turn?

You've already seen him call once when you bet.

You have to be worried that a FAILURE to C-Bet on a draw heavy flop like this may mean extreme STRENGTH, so with 3rd pair and a flush draw why not take the free card when it is offered?

Afterall, your hand with 3rd pair DOES have some marginal value on showdown, but it really cannot withstand a check/raise, so why open the window of possibility to a C/R bluff shot?

3) Why call that C/R on the turn?

All the signs were pointing toward you NOT holding the best hand when he C/R'ed tha turn.
That means you now have just 1 card to spike the flush, and MAYBE live 2 pair/trip outs.

With the pot standing at 80c after his C/R (before your call), at MAXIMUM you can only win about 2 times the pot if you call.

You are 4 to 1 against hitting your flush, and about 2 to 1 against to improve to at least 2 pair. you;d need to think that ANY 2 pair+ spike is going to lead to the Villain calling off your entire stack to be worthwhile on implied odds.

this means you'd have to have a villian willing to lead enough on the river to let you put your remaining $2 and change in, and get called; how likely is that really?

- Since hitting a flush would be pretty obvious if you jammed the river, you may NOT get paid max implied odds if a heart fell.

- Trips may not be good enough if villain flopped a set or 2 pair.

- 2 pair may not be good enough, because you may spike the Qc and run into a flush, or the villain may already have Kings up.

Obviously you were aware 2 pair may NOT be good because you did not jam your spike, so this means you probably did NOT have full value of the 15 live outs you'd need to have a 2 to 1 chance at being good. Since you only have about 2 to 1 in implied odds when faced with calling the C/R, you were not getting the right price to continue.

If you cannot leverage implied odds value in excess of the chance you have to spike live outs, why even call the C/R at all?

Calling that C/R on the turn is what cost you the 60c river call.
If you did not call the C/R, you do not face possibly calling more with the 2nd best hand.

So you missed your chance to fold the river when you did not fold the turn.

Last edited by JDean; Sun Sep 04, 2011 at 03:00 PM..
 
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Sun Sep 04, 2011, 03:16 PM
(#5)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

I like your reply JDEAN , I watched it back before I read your reply and I felt disappointed with the turn bet - clearly paying for it with 'that call' and then calling a value bet on the river .

I felt that maybe a Q8s was OK at 6max as I look to open my range somewhat however , I like your suggestion of using it against looser players by raising to isolate and , throwing it away against tight players and good players .

Nice input regarding the calculating of odds/implied odds when facing a reraise on the turn , I can see now that it is an excellent opportunity to stop and think about the hand anew , to then make the right decision .

Your analysis is an indepth as ever and even more helpful , I shall check in again in due course .
 
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Mon Sep 05, 2011, 01:36 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Note though...

The pot odds you had to call his RAISE was 3 to 1.

...but the only reason you had those odds were because YOU bet the 16c when you could have taken the "free card".

I read back on my stuff re: implied odds, and it struck me as a bit confusing (sue me, it was late when I wrote that! )

Fact is...

The pot is 32c, and you bloated the pot with your turn lead with quite a weak semi bluff hand.

The only way to make your half pot turn lead 'right" would be if he will peel MOST of the time on just overs, or a WEAKER flush draw. If that were the case, then ok.

What I saw here though was a bet you didnt need to make, and can only pay you to make it versus the most extreme chaser villians, OR if he will pay your whole stack if you do hit.

see?

That would require a really BAD opponent, and while those do exist, this was probably too big a risk to take.
 

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