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Good Late Registration Opportunity?

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Good Late Registration Opportunity? - Mon Sep 05, 2011, 01:35 PM
(#1)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
I have been looking for some good spots to invest my FPPs and came across the satellites to the Saturday Micro. I'm not normally a fan of either turbo tourneys or late registration tactics, but this really caught my eye. Can anyone see any flaws in my reasoning, or does this indeed look like a great opportunity for a late reg coup?

33fpp buys you into a satellite that pays out one $3.30 place in the Saturday Micro for each 210 fpp in the prize pool. So the nominal value of my 33 fpp buyin is $0.51, or a fraction over 1.5c per fpp. So this is already better than the regular 10fpp ($500) and 20fpp ($1000) turbos, which seem to typically attract 5k entrants, thus valuing every invested fpp at 1c.

Now here's the interesting thing. This Saturday Micro satellite allows late reg for 45 mins. I have checked out two of them today, and at the end of the late reg period the field had reduced so fast that only twice the bubble number were left in. Big blind at this point is up to 300, so buying in at the last minute would give you a stack of 5bb. Assuming you find an early spot for a coinflip for your stack, you would have a 50% chance of doubling up to 3000 chips, or 2/3 of the average stack.

I don't know how accurate this is, but from my PSO experience, 2/3 the average stack in a mtt typically puts you about midway in the field, as there always seem to be more players with below average stacks than above (the very big stacks tend to be a disproportionate few).

So, assuming all this, by buying in at the end of late reg, you have a 50% chance of doubling up to a point in the middle of the field with a resulting 50% chance (with average luck and playing ability) of surviving through the bubble to win the ticket. A one-in-four shot, in other words. (ok thats a bit of an assumption about doubling up... anyone with a better grasp of mtt equity please let me know if this is way off).

If 33 fpp buys you a 1 in 4 shot at $3.30 then you are getting 2.5c value per fpp. Has anyone seen a better potential return on fpp points than this?

Last edited by mytton; Mon Sep 05, 2011 at 01:38 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 04:33 AM
(#2)
kingkano9's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 34
The only downfall is in your math. You are assuming you will find a 50/50 coinflip opportunity in your first 5 or 6 hands? Otherwise you lose some chips into blinds and that affects the math.... if your shoving anything then that also affects the math (no longer 50/50 IMHO). If we re-assume that you really have a 25% chance of getting to 3000 chips how does this affect your outcome?

The reason the fields on these reduce quickly is because people buyin and just shove any kinda decent hand as your suggesting.

You might be better off looking for decent return satelites that are reasonably soft/easier to run good in.
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 06:41 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I have played a few of these and also the Saturday Splash 2FPP+R and I think they have similar value for FPPs. In the $3.30 sats I prefer to register early and back my game when the blinds are low, waiting for a good hand in position with few opponents behind, expect my raises and shoves to get called and looking to double up or better. That way I find at the end of the reg period I am likely to be ahead of the late registering players. Math wise I still find I am close to (or often better than) 50/50 to get that double up+, depending on the cards I get dealt and the table dynamics where I am seated.

The disadvantage to your method is that on joining a table there will be a few dominant stacks and others in shove fold/mode so your fold equity will be low .Your good /premium hand is often going to get called by multiple players and that will reduce its win potential.

As you are not looking to win the tournament but just fade players to the bubble you are still going to manage that fairly often as you will be surprised how many of the players don't seem to understand that fundamental difference in sattys. You often see big stacks facing off against each other and busting.

One advantage to your strategy is that it saves time. I think your method is definitely valid and your results seem to show that. I will give it a go sometime for a change to see how it works out.


[btw I always unregister from the target tourneys and use the T-money for my series of 45man $0.50 sitngo turbos, which are my most profitable games at the moment. I am basically paying for all these sitngo games with T-money from these FPP satellites.]

Good Luck

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 08:48 AM
(#4)
kingkano9's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
One advantage to your strategy is that it saves time. I think your method is definitely valid and your results seem to show that. I will give it a go sometime for a change to see how it works out.


[btw I always unregister from the target tourneys and use the T-money for my series of 45man $0.50 sitngo turbos, which are my most profitable games at the moment. I am basically paying for all these sitngo games with T-money from these FPP satellites.]

Good Luck

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
Cant see any results quoted?

Definitely agree with unreging for T$. I use mine up on 90 man sngs 50c ones and $1 ones are my favourites too.

If you have more fpps I have had alot of success with the 210fpp Sunday Storm 20 man sats. 6 places get paid which hasnt been that difficult. Nets $11 in T$. Cashing in about 45% gets your 2.5c per fpp. My sample size is small at 25 but I cashed in 14 of them so thats 56% .0293 I think.

Last edited by kingkano9; Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:58 AM..
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 10:40 AM
(#5)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Thanks for the replies, Ed and Kingkano. No, I haven't actually tried out this strategy, just saw the opportunity and wondered if it was as +EV as it looked. It looked so tempting when half the field had already gone out.

I think between you, you have convinced me that expecting to buyin at the end of the late reg period with 5bb and be able to double up half of the time from there is probably unrealistic.

So maybe getting in from the start is the better bet. In which case, though still decent value per fpp, this particular tourney is not significantly different from the others mentioned.

I don't have a huge amount of fpps to play with (earning 50-60 per week playing 2NL cash tables) , but I will take a look around at the other options mentioned here. It does seem a shame, though, that all the options seem to be turbo. I know some prefer this, but couldn't we have a wider range of options?

Like both of you, I think I will also be looking to use the T$ elsewhere if and when I do earn some.
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 03:58 PM
(#6)
kingkano9's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 34
I agree - hate turbos myself. Although with sats its less of an issue. Those 210 ones are over in 45mins before the blinds really start to bite - very loose players alot of the time in sats, who really dont think properly!

Sadly I think its going to go more this way - with the likes of those new 'timed tournaments' they are obviously trying to encourage in more casual players
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 06:20 AM
(#7)
IroncladMerc's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 581
I tried one of those 33 FPP Saturday Micro sattys yesterday, did the late reg in the last minute. Lo and behold in my first 5 hands I had KK, AK, and AA, so I was up to a 10K chip stack in a few minutes. Also these tourneys are really soft, the players will go all in with any pair and pretty much any ace or king rag.
 

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