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PLO8 Drawing Odds

 
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PLO8 Drawing Odds - Wed Sep 07, 2011, 06:54 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Just noticed the AceExtra lesson of the day on PLO8 drawing odds so thought I would post my big hand from yesterday. [Not sure if hand replayer works with PLO8, but then I can rarely get it to work with NLHE hands either]

For background, I play micro PLO8 cash tables for VPPs, having watched The Langolier's and Ahar010's sessions and videos. I am only a beginner at this format so play extremely nitty preflop. My post flop play is more instinct than knowledge. Not surprisingly I am a losing player, I tend to win lots of small pots and then occassionally get quartered with the nut low, and less often stacked by missing draws in both directions or calling with the 2nd nut hand into someone with the actual goods.

Here I flop a very strong draw but play passively against some strong action, just staying in the hand.

The big question is are my odds to call the turn bet actually any good? Great result yes, but I am not sure this is +ev in the long run.

No way I was ever leaving this hand post flop though just because of the mood I was in and the effective stacks.


*********** # 1 **************PokerStars Game #67097271381: Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2011/09/06 14:00:48 WET [2011/09/06 9:00:48 ET] Table 'Jole VI' 9-max
Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: tigristomkb ($2.56 in chips)
Seat 2: erte1 ($1.91 in chips)
Seat 3: wick777 ($1.27 in chips)
Seat 4: Konst@ntin ($9.14 in chips)
Seat 5: ZOLTAR-X ($2.52 in chips)
Seat 6: EdinFreeMan ($4.69 in chips)
Seat 7: pokerinet ($0.72 in chips)
Seat 8: poopuu ($2.28 in chips)
Seat 9: robker ($1.70 in chips)
EdinFreeMan: posts small blind $0.01
pokerinet: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to EdinFreeMan [3s Ts 5d 2s]
poopuu: folds
robker: folds
tigristomkb: folds
erte1: folds
wick777: calls $0.02
Konst@ntin: calls $0.02
ZOLTAR-X: calls $0.02
EdinFreeMan: calls $0.01
pokerinet: checks

*** FLOP *** [4s 4h 5s]
EdinFreeMan: checks
pokerinet: bets $0.10
wick777: calls $0.10
Konst@ntin: folds
ZOLTAR-X: folds
EdinFreeMan: calls $0.10

*** TURN *** [4s 4h 5s] [9c]
EdinFreeMan: checks
pokerinet: bets $0.38
wick777: raises $0.77 to $1.15 and is all-in
EdinFreeMan: calls $1.15
pokerinet: calls $0.22 and is all-in

*** RIVER *** [4s 4h 5s 9c] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
EdinFreeMan: shows [3s Ts 5d 2s] (HI: a straight flush, Ace to Five; LO: 5,4,3,2,A)
wick777: shows [9s 9d 2c Kc] (HI: a full house, Nines full of Fours)
EdinFreeMan collected $0.52 from side pot
EdinFreeMan collected $0.52 from side pot
pokerinet: shows [4c 4d 3h 7c] (HI: four of a kind, Fours; LO: 7,5,4,3,A)
EdinFreeMan collected $1.05 from main pot
EdinFreeMan collected $1.05 from main pot

*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $3.30 Main pot $2.10. Side pot $1.04. | Rake $0.16
Board [4s 4h 5s 9c As]
Seat 1: tigristomkb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: erte1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: wick777 showed [9s 9d 2c Kc] and lost with HI: a full house, Nines full of Fours
Seat 4: Konst@ntin folded on the Flop
Seat 5: ZOLTAR-X (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: EdinFreeMan (small blind) showed [3s Ts 5d 2s] and won ($3.14) with HI: a straight flush, Ace to Five; LO: 5,4,3,2,A
Seat 7: pokerinet (big blind) showed [4c 4d 3h 7c] and lost with HI: four of a kind, Fours; LO: 7,5,4,3,A
Seat 8: poopuu folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: robker folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Have to feel a tiny bit sorry for pokerinet - NOT

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:02 AM..
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 08:16 AM
(#2)
papakilomike's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 15
Hi Ed.

No, -EV for sure but always tempting when you have a straight flush draw. Assuming pokerinet would put his remaining 0.22 in you put 1.15 into a pot of 2.15 - odds of 1:1.87. At best you had 5 outs, the 4 aces and the 6 of spades of which 3 or 4 of these would give you half the pot only. 44 cards left divided by 5 = roughly 8:1. So you needed approx $9 in the pot to call that hand, arguably more because only the A spades was likely to give you a scoop.

Cheers

Pete
 
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Wed Sep 07, 2011, 08:48 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks papakilomike,

as I suspected then, a bad play despite the result, though I didn't realise the odds were quite so high. The problem is calculating the outs and how many of them will give me a scoop or share of the pot, so I need to keep practising and studying. If I wasn't in the SB I'm probably folding the opening hand anyway, but the flop was far too tempting to get away.

I am much more disciplined in NLHE as I have a much better idea of what I am doing. But as I am enjoying learning the PLO8 and getting most of my VPPs from it I will keep trying - only a few months into the learning curve for this game so long way to improve. I am still losing but not a great deal in absolute terms and I made the 750VPPs mostly from these tables last month for the Platinum Stars under the promotion and have won more back from the VIP freerolls - so it still seems like a good place to keep playing as long as I am improving.

Cheers and good luck.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 07:54 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I agree too. One thing you really have to watch out for in Omaha is when the board pairs. You'll see quads and at least a full house probably about 90% of the time... or even more if multiple players see the flop. If you can't beat at least a full house, you're most likely in trouble. If you're trying to stay for low, I'd already want to have 2 cards that can give you the nut low in my hand (if you get another low card).

Yes, you had the str8 flush draw... but if you need to only draw an A to get low, then that doesn't add very many outs to you. Trying to draw only for low without the 2 lowest available lows in your hand.... will get you into a situation where you're getting bad odds to draw at low and alot of the time you'll be splitting low too.

If you're playing Omaha8 to get the VPP's (which I did basically every single month when the US players could play).... play a solid tight game, don't take many chances at all..... and you'll get the VPP's along with showing a profit.

Good luck at the tables.
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 08:15 AM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Very interesting stuff but it has left me pondering two things:

Firstly how did Mike come to the conclusions of 44 cards left to call the turn to calculate the odds; this one has me stumped since there are 9 players and I assume that they all received four cards each before the flop.

Secondly Ed, is this what you would call an average pot in PL Omaha? It seems not much greater than the type of pots at 1/2NLHE. How many hours would you say you played to get 750VPPs?

Thanks in advance for the feedback and help.

TC
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 09:35 AM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Very interesting stuff but it has left me pondering two things:

Firstly how did Mike come to the conclusions of 44 cards left to call the turn to calculate the odds; this one has me stumped since there are 9 players and I assume that they all received four cards each before the flop?
Unknown cards are unknown cards whether they are in the stub or in another players hand. You know the 4 cards in your hand and the 4 on the board leaving 44 unknown.
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 09:55 AM
(#7)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Unknown cards are unknown cards whether they are in the stub or in another players hand. You know the 4 cards in your hand and the 4 on the board leaving 44 unknown.
Eeyup unseen is unseen is unseen 52-4-4=44.... And ed.... This hand seems anything but nitty for plo8 with a weak flush, no A for low,and only baby str8 possibilities,this seems to me (with my VERY limited plo8 knowledge) to be a nothing but trouble type of hand from the word go... especially but not limited to you having the worst possible position...doubt if I would even pay the penny to see the flop here or .02 from any pos...just my .02 fwiw.(no pun intended)

Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Sep 08, 2011 at 09:58 AM..
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 11:36 AM
(#8)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks men,

That is indeed a great help and might explain why I thought I was so +EV when dividing my number of outs into 31 on the flop or 30 on the turn in NLHE

Maths is definitely not my strongest point!

TC
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 12:33 PM
(#9)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I admit I probably wasn't playing that nitty at this point. I have been known to fold my way through a whole $1 of 0.01/0.02 blinds with a zero VPIP, but I think I was a bit looser than normal this session.

I completed the SB because it was going to be a 5 handed multi-way pot (assuming BB doesn't raise) and I had 3 wheel cards so was happy to see a flop. I think that is OK, especially if the A flops to counterfeit others low holdings. I would have got away next betting round if the straight-flush-wheel draw had not popped up. Then I probably lost my head.

I've no idea how many hours I played this last month. I only got into it a couple of months ago and the first month I really played a lot was aiming for the 150VPPs for the premier league prizes. I think I made just over 200 having never got above about 30-50 in any previous month. Then when the mega month promotion came along I tried to make 30VPPs a day from this, usually playing a couple of hours session per day multitabling 4-6 tables. When I got behind my target I would go a bit crazy, at one point I had most of my bankroll spread around about 12-13 PLO8 tables at $5 a table, but I was folding like mad. I think I made max of 60VPPs in one day over a few hours like that.

Obviously it would be better to get VPPs and profit, which is why I am trying to improve,but this does seem to rack them up faster than NLHE 0.01/.02 - and my losses last month at PLO8 were just over a dollar a day - not great but manageable and I think this month I am pretty even for the first week as I am playing a lot more steadily with more concentration on fewer tables. Really the megamonth promo pushed me past my limits, but as I made about $70 on the VIP tourneys that the VPPs got me entry to it was worthwhile - and I have the platinum status for this month.

Thanks for all your comments - good luck.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Thu Sep 08, 2011 at 12:39 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 12:55 PM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Lot of dedication and time required then to make platinum status then Ed. As you say though, it has been worth it. It is just a pity that multitabling does not seem to be my thing. I might give the PLO a go though to see if I can rack up the VPPS a bit faster. I have just made over 50 although I did go a bit mad on 10 and 25 NL for a few hours which was not too healthy for my bankroll. I always seem to run into the guys who are staking off on their Aces, which I suppose is one way of playing.

Thanks for the feedback Ed and GL in the premier.

TC
 
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Thu Sep 08, 2011, 11:09 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Did anyone mention adding wick777 to your buddy list? Because that's an important takeaway from this hand too imo.
 

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