Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

Too aggressive on the river? (Hand video included this time)

 
Old
Default
Too aggressive on the river? (Hand video included this time) - Fri Sep 09, 2011, 05:49 AM
(#1)
Frickabomber's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 15
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi there,

Seeking some guidance on this issue as it is creeping into my game. I usually play 3.5 SNG so that kind of limits the damage but this type of play would no doubt lead to trouble in cash games.
My mindset during this type of play is i've committed 1000 of my 1500 stack, so I might as well throw in the rest and gamble, rather than folding and trying to play a short stack.

I'll take all feedback, but was seeking advice on the following points;
1. Was my initial raise OK?
2. Was the c-bet/semi bluff on the flop justified and was the amount OK
3. Was the call on the turn a mistake as the odds were'nt right (approx 3-1). does implied odds apply in this spot?
4. Should I have just called the river bet given the obvious flush possibilities of my opponent to limit the damage I ultimately caused myself.

Cheers

Lyle
 
Old
Default
Fri Sep 09, 2011, 06:25 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
No expert but I will make only one comment: much too early in the tournie to play speculative hands and you were in early position to boot; It should have been an instant fold.

Cbet was too small on the flop but I doubt if the villain was leaving, the fact he called indicated a flush draw. His bet on the turn indicated a flush, calling here on a draw is a major leak. Not sure about the odds.

You then compounded that by raising his bet and then calling his all in on the river.

It would not be a bad open in low stakes cash, but you would be eaten alive in 10NL upwards.

I do not want to be harsh Lyle but it was very bad play from start to finish, your opponent was pretty bad too (he should never have been in the hand either) but that does not mean that you have to be. My advice is to stop playing, go through all the courses, attend some live training and watch some videos. When you have done all that and hopefully plugged the leaks, then start playing at the lower levels.

TC
 
Old
Default
Fri Sep 09, 2011, 09:08 AM
(#3)
Frickabomber's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 15
Thanks for the feedback TC, back to school for me then.

Cheers

Lyle
 
Old
Default
Fri Sep 09, 2011, 02:11 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frickabomber View Post
I'll take all feedback, but was seeking advice on the following points;
1. Was my initial raise OK?
SNG's, especially in the very early stages, benefit from you playing a tighter game. As they tend to be the equivalent of final table play in MTTs, ICM is much easier to use. This means your chip stack relative to the other chip stacks is very important.

Raising from MP with a hand like QJo is a bit loose when there are 6 people (including the blinds) who may 3Bet and cause you to FOLD that hand. It is also quite early for you to think you have a clear enough read on the open limping opponent to feel strongly about isolating with a hand like this.

If you DO have that sort of read though, raising is probably preferable to limping, but any raise at any time will be somewhat vulnerable with this hand, so the less you try to use that highly exploitative play, the better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frickabomber View Post
2. Was the c-bet/semi bluff on the flop justified and was the amount OK
Yes, it was justified.
When you get yourself involved with a hand such as QJ, a lot of the value you will flop will be draws.
Since you will be calling (at least once) with hands like that a large percent of the time, leading for an amount you'd be willing to call behind a check is probably preferable.
Consider: no one had faith enough to raise you pre, so what are the chances they will raise you now?

As for the amount, I do not like it. 130 into a 310 pot is less than 1/3rd the pot.
This lays 4+ to 1 for anyone to call, and gives a flush draw a "correct" price to stay (if he feels you are likely to bet a similar small amount on the turn as well).
Also, in a multi-way pot, you run the risk of 1 caller feeding the pot, and making it easier for others to call along as well; this hurts your chances of winning the pot overall, even if you do spike your straight and see it no longer stay the nut hand on the river.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker
And this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morton%27s_theorem

I would have prefered to make my bet at LEAST half pot (versus disciplined players who fold), and as much as 2/3rds versus looser callers. While the larger amount would hurt more if you must fold it, you also stand to have a much greater chance of winning the pot by betting that instead of what you had bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frickabomber View Post
3. Was the call on the turn a mistake as the odds were'nt right (approx 3-1). does implied odds apply in this spot?
The turn call was bad.

3 to 1 is not enough to want to see the river. At that point your chances of making a straight or only about 17.4%, so you'd have needed in excess of 4 to 1 to make a call ok based on pot odds. Also, since calling the turn bet puts you past a "normal" committment point, you really want to be pretty certain hitting an out will give you the best hand. Consider...

If you call the turn bet, you are essentially putting your entire stack at risk if you do make a straight.
The amount you will WIN is a straight is good is only about 2340 (current pot of 700 + villain's 340 bet + your 340 call + 960 IF the villain calls liter than a rivered straight by you). That means you are risking 340 to win 2340, or about 6.88 to 1 odds.

That is in excess of the amount you must have in implied odds to call along, BUT...

- You must be 100% SURE the Villain will pay you off the total of your stack if you hit
- You must be 100% SURE a straight will be good for you if you make it

...to look at 6.88 to 1 as "good implied odds" versus the 4+ to 1 odds you need to hit your straight.

Realisticly, 2 of your 8 straight outs throw a 4 card flush on the board; is a straight likely to be good on that board?
Your villain has played relatively passively, right up until the 3rd lub hit the board; isn't there a pretty good chance he has the flush?
If he does have the flush now you have ZERO outs to win.

read this: http://www.pokerjesusonline.com/discounting_outs.htm

Even if you assess his chance of having a flush now at just 10%, and if you also assess his chance of NOT having at least 1 club at 40%, at BEST you must think you have 5.5 to 6 "clean outs" effectively.

This means your chance to win the pot on the river is about 13%, and AT BEST you need right around 7.7 to 1 implied odds to even consider a call. Keep in mind, that 7.7 to 1 is BEST CASE; Feeling you'd want 10+ to 1 odds on a pay off to run down your straight is certainly not out of line to look for before considering running to the river.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Frickabomber View Post
4. Should I have just called the river bet given the obvious flush possibilities of my opponent to limit the damage I ultimately caused myself.
As seen above, you eally should have folded on the TURN, simply because there was too much chance that you were drawing dead.

When you did not though, and when you hit what you were playing for, NO you shouldn't have called the river...you should have open shoved instead.

Fact is, the only justification for a "chase" like this is that you think the villain is loose enough to pay you off if you do hit.
The one way to make it possible for him to pay you off with less is if you JAM first to act.
The 2nd best option would be to bet around half pot, and let HIM jam, and then you snap call.

The simple fact is, when you decide to go past the turn, and then HIT what you were sticking around to hit, you must seek to get maximum value.

BUT...

If you are reluctant to do that, even if a tiny bit reluctant, then the fact is you should have acted differently EARLIER in the hand.

Hand you thought the villain was very "bluff-y", you probably do not want to semi bluff the flop, and elect a calling line instead.
If he is overly aggressive, you may want to have tested him stronger on the flop.
If he is a calling station who bets a scary turn (for you) when all you have is a draw to a straight, then you should have probably dumped then.

The river is generally NOT the place you really want to have to make critical decisions in regards to whether a hand you've made is good or not.
If you do draw to the river, and get there, then you should have VERY good thoughts about he strength of the hand you;ve now hit, thus making it very clear wheher you should bet or not. If ou do not have that sort of river "clarity" when you are drawing at something, do not take the risk very often at all.

Last edited by JDean; Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 02:16 PM..
 
Old
Default
Fri Sep 09, 2011, 02:32 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Honestly in a sit n go QJ is a fold preflop. Maybe you could play it from the cutoff or button, but I'd rather take any lower suited connector or pocket pair. And you're really in too early a position to be messing around.

You can try betting that flop if you have for instance , but with no club I don't like it. And if you're betting that flop with a draw you have got to bet bigger. There are too many people in the pot to be making this bluff. Heads-up I'd absolutely bet this.

I don't really like the turn check-call with nothing but a straight draw. You're not strong enough to bluff-catch and are possibly drawing dead...plus you're out of position. No he doesn't always have to have a flush here, but you're out of position, with a pretty weak draw, time to cut your losses. If the turn made you a straight while also completing a possible flush draw I don't think you could fold for one bet, but drawing to a straight in this spot is simply not profitable.

Well, the river gives you your straight! Now's the time to just jam and hope he calls you with a set or two pair or aces, whatever. I don't like checking as you give all those hands a chance yo check behind and you lose out on the value you needed. If you were deeper you could bet/fold, but with less than a potsize bet left shoving is the only reasonable choice. That is unless you think he's more likely to turn a hand like Tx (or some other way he gets there with a naked big club) into a bluff, in which case you can check/call, but I don't think that's very likely.

And yeah, you really need to work on your bet-sizing. You want to maximize value and fold equity with your bets. This doesn't mean you have to pot it every street, but 1/5 pot size bets are not gonna do it.
 
Old
Default
Fri Sep 09, 2011, 07:39 PM
(#6)
Frickabomber's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 15
Thanks for taking the time to review and providing further references for me to study, really appreciate it. Great service you guys are providing.

Lyle
 
Old
Default
Sat Sep 10, 2011, 02:52 AM
(#7)
Widzywidzy^^'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
Could probably write an essay on the problems with this hand but I really cba so ill just say this:

Fold pre.

This will help you avoid some of these situations!
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com