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Is it a correct laydown ?

 
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Is it a correct laydown ? - Sat Sep 10, 2011, 06:22 AM
(#1)
pavelfur's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 10
This player is very loose (Playing 71% of the hands). Also he is quite passive after the flop.
I've made this lay down based on the fact that his river aggression is very low and it was not a dry board. Thought he had at least two pair.
So my question if I made a correct play on the river and if I could be play better on the other streets.
Thanks, Pavel.

Last edited by pavelfur; Sat Sep 10, 2011 at 06:41 AM..
 
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Sat Sep 10, 2011, 10:26 AM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Pure odds of winning hand at showdown:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=152449

Value betting this opponent with an overpair on every street seems like the right idea to me. Your JJ is going to be ahead of his range the vast majority of the time when it is an overpair on the flop. In the long run valuebetting strongly will be profitable, but once and a while you will lose a decent sized pot to this type of player. The problem is since he is in 71% of hands and plays his draws/medium hands/strong hands similarly passive it is hard to know where you stand.

His low river aggressing is a key read for this situation. It indicates that his large reraise on the river is representing a strong made hand. Also, you showed a lot of strength the entire hand so that makes it even more likely that he has what he says he has.

He probably has something even better than two pair. Two pair on this board is actually only a medium strength hand. According to his river aggression, your opponent likes to call down on the river with medium strength hands. It is much more likely that he has something like a flopped flush, a set, or a rivered straight. Even a set is somewhat of a medium strength hand here, but he could be over valueing a set here. 71% hands played and passive post-flop play is indicative of a very bad player. So he could very well consider a set the nuts here.

Theres only a couple of things I could see you doing differently here. One, you could make a larger flop bet. Get even more value for your hand since it will generally be best on the flop. Two, you could have bet much less on the river. The river card is not a good card for you. It could have completed a straight, given him 2 pair, or a set. It is also very possible that he called the flop and turn chasing a flush draw. If he was, then betting big or small on the river accomplishes the same thing, getting him to fold. Try betting a much smaller amount on the river as this will get more calls from weaker hands and will also make folding much easier for you when he does shove all-in.

As the hand was played, you had so much money invested in the pot and were getting 3.36-1 odds to call. This put you in a very tough spot. I think the fold was definitely correct as you were so sure to be beat, but a smaller river bet would have made the decision easier.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sat Sep 10, 2011 at 10:36 AM..
 
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Sat Sep 10, 2011, 11:08 AM
(#3)
pavelfur's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 10
Thank you very much for the reply. I will make adjustments on the betting next time.
How much do you think the river bet size should be ? Maybe something around 40% percent of the pot ?
About the flop bet, absolutely agree, what about the turn bet ? is the size ok ?
By the way, I made this large bet on the river because I was pretty sure he is going to call me with a weak hand, but on the other hand it should be less in case he had a big hand.
 
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Sat Sep 10, 2011, 01:39 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Against a loose passive player with a hand so far ahead of his range I think you gotta bet a lot bigger on the flop, like potsized or overbet even. Same thing on the turn. River is pretty gross, but I think bet/fold is the way to go. There are still a few hands you can get value from, but his entire raising range here crushes you. He can have a flush, a straight, 77, 67, 57, etc. Hell, he could have AA. Yeah, you're getting 2.7 to 1 odds on a call, but you're behind pretty much 100% of his river raising range. Good fold.

Quote:
So he could very well consider a set the nuts here.
It pretty much is. Top set is only behind a flopped flush, 34, 48, and 89...and how many of those are really in your range?
 
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Sat Sep 10, 2011, 03:00 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Based upon your read of the villain, there was no sense in value betting the river.

Your over pair with a draw to the J hi flush is defiantely worth bets, even if you think there is a good chance you are BEHIND. The reason I say that is due to the passive nature of the opponent, you are un-likely to be raised early, so leadin for an amount you'd normally be willing to CALL is probably preferable.

But when you get called on every street you've bet, and improvement does NOT come for you, the river bet is pretty useless:

1) If Villain was drawing and didn't get there he ain't paying you.
2) If villain was ahead all along, he is likely RAISING, and you end up paying more than a crying call would have cost.
3) If the villain is behind, but has a hand that he THINKS is ahead, such as AdTx, he may raise you on the river thus causing you to make a "bad fold".

As played, I do not see anything wrong with your river fold; there is rarely sense in chasing another $2.63 into the pot with "just" an over pair against a passive villain who wakes up on the river to put you all in on a coordinated board. But I think you may have gotten away with a little bit LESS of a loss here had you not tried to value bet the river.
 
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Sat Sep 10, 2011, 03:31 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I think he can call with QT, KT, AT, 88, or 87. The only hand that might be in his raising range that you beat is AT. I doubt he turns 87 into a bluff. The value is a little thin but I still think it's there.
 

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