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Fifty-Fifty ($15 buy in) hand analysis - Folding set of Trips?

 
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Fifty-Fifty ($15 buy in) hand analysis - Folding set of Trips? - Mon Sep 12, 2011, 11:13 PM
(#1)
Swanydays's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 2
THIS Hand is for Analysis and comment by any poker school members this week - my answer to what actually happened and how and why I played the hand next week: Please read and vote if you think I should "Call All-in" or "Fold" in the given situation below when I made a set of trips on the flop:

Hi All, I recently started playing $3.50, $7 and $15 buy in One Table "Fifty-Fifty" tournaments. They are a great lot of fun and require some skill to make the top five positions. The objective is to come 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th out of 10 players, or loose your buy-in, and make as many chips as possible by the bubble when 5 players are left to make some money. It is fairly easy to do with consistent play. The $1.50 and $3.50 tables are fairly general players, and the $7 and $15 tables have good amateur players who know their poker ($30 and above buy-in tables have experienced multi-tablers and professionals so best to avoid these levels without a lot of training and experience).

Here is an opening hand in a $15 buy in "Fifty-Fifty" I played this morning. Usually the opening hand is very quit as everybody is risk adverse and tight in the early stages of a 50-50, it is pass the blinds around and let’s have a cup-of-tea kind of stuff....usually:

Players: 10 handed, first hand of 50-50 $15 buy-in tournament, starting chips are 1500, all equal, and blinds are SB15 and BB30. Players in this hand:
Player "Z" is in the Big Blind and is unknown to me
Player "L" is Mid-position seat 1 is a regular tight-aggressive player, loves premium opening hands and will c-bet whenever he makes a partial hand or has good hole cards
Player "S" (Me, Swany) is in Mid-position seat 3 and I am dealt a pocket pair of 7's (7h,7d). All other players fold.

Player "L" in Mid-1 opens the betting with 120 (4xBB). Its my turn, (Player "S" in Mid-3) I decide to call the 120 bet with pocket 7's even though the opening bet is large, to see if I can hit a 7 on the flop. My guess is he has 2 higher cards or an over pair that beats me. Player "Z" in the big blinds calls the 120 (4xBB) opening bet, but I don't have a read on his play at this point - it is just a following bet to be in the pot, it seems.

The Flop: Comes 8h,7s,6s:

My thoughts at this point: "what a nice flop, yeah", I have hit a set of 3 7s. I expect to be ahead of all single hole cards, hole pairs or single pairs or two pairs the players may make (except pocket 8's).
The pot stands at 375. Next: Player "Z" in BB checks the flop. Play "L" in Mid-1 open raises 210. Its my turn (Player S in Mid 3), I see this as a solid C-bet from the opener and consistent with the way player "L" plays, but with 3, 7's I have no reason not to call as I think he has 2 higher cards and nowhere near a straight. A flush draw in spades is a low risk. To finish the round of betting, Player "Z" in BB "Raises - All in". This is unexpected. To start the next round of betting, Player "L" in Mid-1 Calls the - All in raise. This is also unexpected as I had no reason to think Player L has a very strong premium opening hand, but could he have AA? AK or KK? AQ etc. What could either player have which would cause them to go all in?

Its my turn, and I am last to act, here is the decision I must make: to I either CALL both players all-in, (remembering even though I have 3 7's, any straight or flush will beat me), or to FOLD. Remember If I loose the hand, I loose my $15 buy-in, but If I am ahead its a great way to triple up and start the tourney way ahead in chips than everyone else and a good chance to make the bubble/cut.

This week: Please Vote, do you think I should a) Call both players "All-in" or b) "Fold". Please provide some brief analysis as to why you think one or the other options is best. You can consider things like the possible hands my opponents may have or make, and my potential outs for winning the hand, even if they make a hand. I will provide the answer to how I played the hand, why and the outcome next week, after every one has voted and provided their analysis. I will then try and post the hand for the replayer. Thanks, Swanydays (does anybody ever really fold their set of trips?)
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 02:02 AM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Get it in...Even if someone has a straight you are getting the right price to draw to a full house 3-way. You're probably against like an overpair and a flush draw anyway. You could also be against 66 or 86. Lots of combo draw hands too, like , , , and maybe even some stuff on the lower end.
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 01:07 PM
(#3)
NL_Niels's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
Because of the check raise so early in the SNG, I put BB on either one of the two other sets or a flopped straight. 75% chance you're dominated by his hand if that range is correct. Fold.
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 02:03 PM
(#4)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
First look at your holding...777 is strong but not the nuts by any means with this board. With 24 cards out,roughly half the deck , there are a lot of hands that dominate your set but a lot of the conectors may have been mucked already so reduce the flush and str8 outs by at least 4 . Given the check raise I suspect that a player whom you know to be TAG ... likely has top pr and nut flush draw(As8s ..1.6:1 to the river to hit) or an over pair. The raise (4x) speaks of strong starters so this narrows the range considerably and would expect to see AA ,KK or QQ holdings especially after the check raise. The unknown villian seems to be calling flat and would put them on AsXs for the flush draw or a possible str8 draw. Against either of these ranges your set is HUGE. 3:1 payout and 7 outs for the cold brass ones and most likely your already there..... given the fact it is the begining of the tourney I can understand caution but to muck the set would be a bad play over all I think!!! especially with 20+% of your stack already committed... cheers look forward to the next part r0ck
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 02:51 PM
(#5)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
lets start ranging first??

u only have knowledge of the opener right?
u profile him as a TAG player so should he openup with hands like T9 or any gapconnectors wich can match the board!! if i read u right he won't so acting first i only believe any broadwy combi or overpair for him or 66+ if he is rocksolid and knows what he is doing.

the second player stay's unknow so he could be calling with suited hands or suited connectors or any connectors and highcards and low pp just to get in

now u get paid 3to 1 if u call

and u have 7x 4= 28% to hit an out
i almost 1 out 3 so u could make the call.

i say call
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 04:31 PM
(#6)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I compiled a list of all the possible hands I think our opponenets could legitamitly hold based on previous reads and actions, if you think I missed something feel free to point it out.
Sets = 6 combo's
88 = 3 combo's
66 = 3 combo's

Straights: 48 combo's
T9 = 16 combos'
95 = 16 combo's
45 = 16 combo's

2 pairs = 15 combo's
86 = 9 combo's
87 = 3 combo's
76 = 3 combo's

Overpairs = 36 combo's
99 = 6 combo's
TT = 6 combo's
JJ = 6 combo's
QQ = 6 combo's
KK = 6 combo's
AA = 6 combo's

Big Draws = 47 combo's
98 = 12 combo's
85 = 12 combo's
AsXs-2s = 10 combo's
KsXs-8s = 5 combo's
QsXs-8s = 4 combo's
JsXs-8s = 3 combo's
Ts8s = 1 combo

152 Total Combinations
51/152 Combo's beat us (33.5% of our opponents range)
101/152 combo's we beat (66.5% of our opponenets range)

Looking at it combinatoricly were a 2:1 favorite over our opponents ranges seems like a clear call getting good pot odds to boot.

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Wed Sep 14, 2011 at 01:17 PM..
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 04:43 PM
(#7)
ashu1288's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 2
going with da hand ......
on the flop first player checked ,2nd player raised 210 in the pot of 370 and he is a tight n aggressive player so i ll put him on AKs as he was the initial raiser under the gun .
first player just called the pre flop raise frm big blind then on flop he check raised all in .... he wont move all in when he knows two people r there in the hand out of whom one has raised n other one has called ...so i ll put him on nuts 9T flopped straight ..
n this all is happenin in the initial stage of the game ....i would say fold

n i m puttin 2nd player on AKs not on high pockets because he wont call an all in with merely a pair
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 07:26 PM
(#8)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
I compiled a list of all the possible hands I think our opponenets could legitamitly hold based on previous reads and actions, if you think I missed something feel free to point it out.
You double-counted . Also how does someone get here with 95 or 85? Is either of these guys bad enough to ship 99-JJ?
 
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Tue Sep 13, 2011, 11:43 PM
(#9)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
I'd ship it - I've played big pocket pairs like this many times. The board favors JT, but I don't think that hand is calling pre. AA, KK, QQ are all calling here and losing to your trips. I realize this is a big gamble for you, especially first hand, but in my book its worth the risk. The only hand you're dominated by is pocket eights, and the probability of that is pretty low.
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 01:16 PM
(#10)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
You double-counted . Also how does someone get here with 95 or 85? Is either of these guys bad enough to ship 99-JJ?
Fixed the T9 issue. The TAG Villain probably cant have 95, but the unknown in the BB very well could be loose enough to call pre with connectors, and if he did he could definitely have taken the same line he did here. 9's gives you an over pair and OESD so I think someone could get it in with that, TT or JJ are possible although its hard to say without better reads.

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Wed Sep 14, 2011 at 01:31 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 01:24 PM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
If you're using good bankroll management (not buying in over 1/100th of your bankroll)... then I'm shipping it. Yes, you could lose your buy-in, but you can also gain more than the single buy-in that you could lose.

Even if the opp flopped a straight, then you still have a number of outs for a full house or quads and TWO draws at them (with additional outs on the river if you don't hit it on the turn).
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 06:30 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Seems to me like a snap call.
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 08:13 PM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
snap call also
 
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The Result: I made the call and why and the outcome - Fri Sep 16, 2011, 10:57 AM
(#14)
Swanydays's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 2
Thanks for all that great analysis, very much what I was thinking in the 3 seconds it took me to "CALL- ALL IN".

In this instance I have to say that either a "Fold" or a "Call" are equally valid decisions. As one responder suggested, folding would keep me away from walking into a player who may have flopped a straight as rare as it is, it does happen. The validation from that "fold" decision would come if this turned out to be true, alternatively, I would be kicking myself if I had "folded the winning hand", which is just as likely (if not more so) from the range of playable cards either play could have, but I would still be in the game with about 1150 of my 1500 starting chips if I folded.

But that is not what I did; this hand is a clear calling hand. First, I had actually hit my set, and the odds of that are usually very low in any rate and it is what I had set out to achieve by playing the hand by "paying" the cost of the high opening bet and the "discounted" continuation-bet. The pot odds at this point are excellent as both players have called all-in already which makes my job pretty easy to call as I am likely ahead of both of them on the range of playable cards they may have, while there are clear risks in this hand.

From a perspective of playing trips consistently over time, without more specific information that a player would make a straight or flush, I am going to play this type of running/suited board and still be a head on the instances when I win the hand more over time, then the rarer instances when a player pulls off a straight or flush. Yes a board of 876 and two spades, does open up a greater risk of a player making these types of hand, but there are many more playable combinations of cards that they could have, and I still have outs to win the hand (as rare as hitting the other 7 or an 8 or 6 for a full house may seem).

What the players had:
The opener clearly had a strong high hand, and the unknown BB was fishing off an "unknown" but playable hand, but had just caught something off that tight middle board, enough to think he might win the hand. His "all-in" was not a "snap call" - he had something. As8s would have been my best guess. Strong enough for him to think he could run the hand and have AK beat, and have a run of hitting his straight if his opponent as on a high over-pair. Of course there are stronger cards he could have 2 pair, two sixes etc, where I am still ahead. It turned out that he did make 2 pair, 7d6d and had called the opening bet with two running suited connectors, "fishing" for diamonds. No diamonds but he did make two pair. Which explains his All-in, he thought he had both the openers over pair and my cards beat. (But I don't imagine he would have placed me on the other two 7's).

I had the strong opener clearly pegged on a pair of Kings, which is what it turned out he had, specifically KdKs rather than AK, the discounted continuation bet of 210 when it should have been at least double his opening bet was the dead give away (tell). It was an inducement bet signalling he was intending to go all in, and wanting to get more calls in the pot, in case everyone folded when he did. (There would be little reason for him to hold back on AA after two players had showed interest after his strong opening bet). I was least worried that this player could make a higher set or trips as it is very rare for two players to hit trips on the same board.

The Out-come:
The turn was the 5s, giving the opener a king high flush draw. Any spade on the river would win him the hand. However, the river was the 6h. Giving the BB a Full house 6's full of 7s and the opener two pair Kings and Sixes. I won the hand with Full house 7's full of 6's. So the call paid off (I hung on coming second in the tourney as a direct result of the opening hand).

The final thought:
This hand shows the value of playing low and middle ranked cards (with 2 players beating KK), as much as the trend in poker is to only play with high rank cards. It shows it is possible to make great hands by playing a wide range of cards, especially early in SNG tourneys when its cheaper to see the flop. There is a place for risk adverse play, but at the start in tight tournaments isn't it. Generally you don’t win hands by folding good ones, or get ahead in tournaments when someone bets over the top with likely average hands. Overall - this hand makes great poker. Swany.
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 11:06 AM
(#15)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
BronzeStar
If the information isn't too "personal" I'd be interested to know your stats for the last 100 of these that you've played.

Just to confirm (or otherwise) a suspicion I have
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 11:30 AM
(#16)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkman61 View Post
If the information isn't too "personal" I'd be interested to know your stats for the last 100 of these that you've played.

Just to confirm (or otherwise) a suspicion I have
dark are u suspicious again for dark plot?????
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 01:21 PM
(#17)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
dark are u suspicious again for dark plot?????
Eh?
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 01:32 PM
(#18)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
nothing serious dark lol don't mind me !!!
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 01:37 PM
(#19)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
dark are u suspicious again for dark plot?????
No, if I figure it correctly he has a suspicion that calling small pck pairs in the hope of hitting a set whether it is early in a tournament or otherwise is a long term losing proposition at these levels.

It would be good to know this off course because taking one winning hand out of context from all other results does not really prove anything.

TC
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 01:56 PM
(#20)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
i know but i had a litlle troubled moment of thinking when i pos't want to attack Dark ted the reply! i don't want to attack dark. what u mentioned hit me a few minutes later!

my brainfart was caused by my friday afternoon beer!!!
 

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