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Sick spot with AQ on the bubble of a satellite

 
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Sick spot with AQ on the bubble of a satellite - Wed Sep 14, 2011, 07:37 PM
(#1)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Okay I'm playing an $11 satellite for a $215 ticket. I won my $11 ticket and it can only be used for $11 satellites and I had some time to play so I figure why not take a shot. My bankroll is zero, but I'm not gonna be able to increase it without playing or something.

Okay, so it's a satellite tourney with rebuys and add-ons. I have no money so I obviously can do neither. Oh well, play on...

I play pretty well, finding spots to steal, knowing who I can fold AJ against, etc. Anyhow I make it to the bubble. Top 9 get something and there are 10 players left.

The prize breakdown:

1- $215 ticket
2- $215 ticket
3- $215 ticket
4- $215 ticket
5- $215 ticket
6- $215 ticket
7- $60
8- $36
9- $24

I'm currently 9th/10 with about 10.5 k behind at 600/1200/125. 10th is at the other table, has about 7k and seems content to just fold his way through the bubble. I figure I should be doing that too, but when I get a value-y hand I have to go with it. Each table is 5-handed now.

Some history: I've been caught shoving Q9 into A9 (folded to me on a 6 BB stack) and AJ into AK (folded to me on a 10 BB stack), and doubling up both times. I figure to get called pretty light.

I pick up in the BB. It folds around to the button, a good tight player. He's won the tourney this is satelliting for. (granted it was probably a tiny field when he won, but nevertheless he won the $215 buy-in tournament at some point). He's got about 30k as I remember.

So button raises to 3600 and I'm in the BB with AQ! I have a loose shoving image and I expect to be ahead some of the time when called. AJ and AT can definitely call against my perceived range. Truth is in this spot, in somewhat of a folding war against the shortest stack, AQ is near the bottom of my shoving range. And I have blockers against AA and QQ.

So what should I do? Do I shove, expecting to be called, but doing okay against his range, and very +cEV with all that money in the pot? or do I fold, trying to out-fold the other shorty? I don't really think a stop and go is an option here.

Last edited by oriholic; Wed Sep 14, 2011 at 07:47 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 07:49 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
With still 4 spots to go to a ticket and the 2nd shortest stack, I think this is a good shove spot over a player we think is opening wide. If you think he's only opening tight then just fold.
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 07:50 PM
(#3)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
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tough spot.... I am 99% shoving myself. This is probably the best hand that you will get and crushes most all blind vs blind hands, so fire away

When I am on the button with the chiplead, i am raising almost any 2

Last edited by roomik17; Wed Sep 14, 2011 at 07:53 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 09:44 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
With still 4 spots to go to a ticket and the 2nd shortest stack, I think this is a good shove spot over a player we think is opening wide. If you think he's only opening tight then just fold.
I think it's somewhere in between and I don't expect him to raise/fold against my stack getting about 2 to 1 on a call. I figure to be about flipping with his range, but maybe he does have some smaller suited stuff or broadways.

If it were 9 tickets, how would you play it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17
tough spot.... I am 99% shoving myself. This is probably the best hand that you will get and crushes most all blind vs blind hands, so fire away

When I am on the button with the chiplead, i am raising almost any 2
He's not chipleader...yet. With the tight, shortish player in the SB and shortstack in the BB I would do the same probably, but if either of us shoves he's getting about 2 to 1 and has to call off about 1/3 of his stack, which takes him from comfortable to back in the middle of the pack.
 
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Wed Sep 14, 2011, 10:15 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
If it were 9 tickets, how would you play it?
If we were actually on the ticket bubble, I'd fold. I'd open shove it, but not 3b over his 3x open on the ticket bubble with a 1 shorter stack.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 02:08 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
How much does the $24 min prize mean to you?

You say you have a $0 BR at the time of sign up, but do you intend to deposit in the near future, or what?

As Dave points out, the REAL "prize" is the ticket, and you are still places from that. But if you have no ability to re-load your bank, then $24 might be an amount of real importance to you as well.

If it is, pass of the race. (I am assuming it is a race range if called, per your words).

If it isn't a big thing, then you are still 4 away form the real pay out, and will need to court races. Go for it.

Last edited by JDean; Thu Sep 15, 2011 at 02:10 AM..
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 06:35 AM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
A tough spot.

As JD says it is how important the 24$ is to you; if you want the ticket you have to shove the AQ unsuited (although AQ is always troublesome). I have no doubt the TAG is calling your shove, raising and folding would be so bad.

What was the outcome?

TC

EDIT: I have to say oriholic (unless this is just for hand analysis purposes), I find it surprising that you have a zero bankroll. I have found your advice in Hand Analysis to be extremely useful so I hope that bankroll grows and that you won something out of this tourney.

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Thu Sep 15, 2011 at 06:41 AM..
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 07:35 AM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I tend to agree with the general consensus. if you're going for the ticket, you gotta shove. but if a
small bankroll bump is in order, and it sounds like it could be, i'd cut it loose in hopes of out lasting the other shorty for your min cash.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 10:03 AM
(#9)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Agree with The Langolier. Also personally, I'm playing for the $215 ticket even if $24 would be $24 more than I currently have in my bankroll.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 11:17 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
I tend to agree with the general consensus. if you're going for the ticket, you gotta shove. but if a
small bankroll bump is in order, and it sounds like it could be, i'd cut it loose in hopes of out lasting the other shorty for your min cash.
+1 Add me to that list. Either way, it's a shove or fold. What I'd do depends on how much the min cash means. If I think I've got a legit shot at a ticket, I'm going for it.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 02:14 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
BTW for clarity for the masses, if you had an option for this buy in it would be much better to play a regular freeze out mtt than a rebuy satty with the br consideration involved. I don't think Ori had any option on this though, but in a case where you did it's something to think about.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 02:49 PM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Sounds to me like Oriholic is playing this on a certain <un-named> site. One which:

A) allows US players
B) has an excess number of "free rolls", which carry a prohibitive advatage for anyone with the wherewithal to RE-BUY (1500 free roll start stacks, 3k for a 50c re-buy, 10k chips for a $1 add on! sheesh! free roll my arse!).
C) one where I wouldnt deposit oney unless Western Union paid ME $25 to put on $50!

...that's probably why Oriholic has a $0 B.R. there.

As for options, if I am right about the site, then he definately does NOT have the option. That is the truly horrendous fact of life over there: their "free rolls" give you tickets (that you cannot redeem for cash btw) which ONLY are usable on 1 or 2 MTT freeze outs per WEEK, and all others are events with re-buys.

Money grubbing hoover vaccuum cleaner site...

/me wants Stars back for U.S. players

Last edited by JDean; Thu Sep 15, 2011 at 02:54 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 03:33 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Yeah, that sounds like the network. I signed up over there after Black Friday, and won a $2 satty ticket in their new member freeroll, all those were rebuys as well. In the $2 satty I won an $11 satty ticket, so I have the same ticket Ori had. lol I haven't played it yet though.

I'm looking forward to the day we can play on Stars again too.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 03:38 PM
(#14)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Yeah, that sounds like the network. I signed up over there after Black Friday, and won a $2 satty ticket in their new member freeroll, all those were rebuys as well. In the $2 satty I won an $11 satty ticket, so I have the same ticket Ori had. lol I haven't played it yet though.

I'm looking forward to the day we can play on Stars again too.
word
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 07:37 PM
(#15)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
How much does the $24 min prize mean to you?
That's the thing...The $60 prize would probably be the best as I wouldn't be restricted to using it in the $215 tourney. I realized this spot was pretty marginal, but I barely had the shortstack out-chipped, when you consider I have to pay the BB now and the SB next hand, while he's just had them both. If it could be converted to $T$ that 60-> 215 jump is obviously huge. Anyhow, that $24 would have been very helpful, and looking back I think folding AQ (the worst hand I would have there) and continuing the folding war would have been slightly more +$EV despite the shove being pretty +cEV.

Quote:
Sounds to me like Oriholic is playing this on a certain <un-named> site
Yeah I won a $2.20 ticket in a freeroll which can only be used for satellites. So I played a $2.20 satellite and won an $11 ticket that can only be used for an $11 satellite. I still have a $2.20 and a $33 ticket left. The $33 ticket can actually be used for a regular $33 tournament and is not restricted to satellites. Of course most of those are rebuy/addon tourneys as well, which obviously puts me at a disadvantage. I love rebuys...when I can afford them... One of these days I'll play an 8k guaranteed or whatever...

Oh and the way they program the prize structure you can actually LOSE money when you make the money (and not just in rebuys).

God I miss Stars.

Quote:
I have to say oriholic (unless this is just for hand analysis purposes), I find it surprising that you have a zero bankroll. I have found your advice in Hand Analysis to be extremely useful so I hope that bankroll grows and that you won something out of this tourney.
Thanks. Glad it's helpful. No, the zero bankroll is true (well like 13 cents and a few tickets)...at one point I had built it all the way up to $80, crushing 4NL and micro tourneys. Bad bankroll management, but my edge was so huge (I was running +15BB/100) I figured my risk of ruin was low enough I could handle it... Then I ran super awful for two days and lost it all (coolers, huge draws all missing, etc.) Been trying to build it back up, via freerolls, but I'm still on this downswing which has been making it tough. I play a high variance loose aggressive style when I can, and...variance kicked my ass.

As for the results of this hand...he had and the flop was K9A and I went out in 10th place. Villain from this hand eventually became dominant chip leader as he swallowed up all the short stacks on a sick card rush. The short stack I needed to outlast won one of the $215 tickets.
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 10:06 PM
(#16)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Wow...

Funny, almost the EXACT same thing happened to me over there.

Got $5 from an old PSO'er (a Dean), and within 3 days had run it to about $98. Played a couple ticket events, and won 7 of 8 I played (not 1st place, but won the ticket).

As soon as I stepped up, I ran smack bang into major coolers left and right, as was essentially bust-o on cash within like 3 days.

Wierd how that happens, huh?
 
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Thu Sep 15, 2011, 10:20 PM
(#17)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Wow...

Funny, almost the EXACT same thing happened to me over there.

Got $5 from an old PSO'er (a Dean), and within 3 days had run it to about $98. Played a couple ticket events, and won 7 of 8 I played (not 1st place, but won the ticket).

As soon as I stepped up, I ran smack bang into major coolers left and right, as was essentially bust-o on cash within like 3 days.

Wierd how that happens, huh?
I feel your pain.... 5 times now I have gone from 0 to around $100 and back to 0 again..... soooo sick, and tilting... I hate it there so much, and have now moved to a new site...with 40%rb lets see how this pans out
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 04:51 AM
(#18)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
It's rigged I tell ya

Sorry guys the opportunity was just too great too miss

Tough one oriholic, I hope the variance starts moving in the other direction
 
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Fri Sep 16, 2011, 03:07 PM
(#19)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Oh I checked out the villain on Sharkscope and OPR, and apparently he's good...like really good...like top 15 profit (SS) and top 5 ranked (OPR) on the network.
 

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