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Tough Decision

 
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Tough Decision - Mon Sep 19, 2011, 11:32 PM
(#1)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
This hand is from a Fifty50 tourney - it had been a fairly typical table. The initial raiser had previously been raising light, and had a pretty wide range. These were the two smallest stacks at the table, so either or both could have been gambling. I think the stack sizes are important at this stage of the tourney.

PokerStars Game #67707417046: Tournament #443189968, $1.35+$0.15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (30/60) - 2011/09/18 16:02:36 CT [2011/09/18 17:02:36 ET]
Table '443189968 1' 10-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: joy7108 (2405 in chips)
Seat 2: fortunboy (640 in chips)
Seat 3: MaggiICE (2195 in chips)
Seat 4: pappelan (2242 in chips)
Seat 5: xpa48x (1495 in chips)
Seat 6: AntoN99913 (2720 in chips)
Seat 7: ELVIS_KRUKOV (920 in chips)
Seat 8: 1StarStalker (860 in chips)
Seat 9: $$$PRIORS59 (1523 in chips)
fortunboy: posts small blind 30
MaggiICE: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joy7108 [8h 8d]
pappelan: folds
xpa48x: folds
AntoN99913: folds
ELVIS_KRUKOV: folds
1StarStalker: calls 60
$$$PRIORS59: folds
joy7108: calls 60
fortunboy: raises 580 to 640 and is all-in
MaggiICE: folds
1StarStalker: calls 580

My play, what would you do and why?? I'll post the results later.
 
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Mon Sep 19, 2011, 11:46 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if I could have isolated one player (initail raiser), I'd call it because you still have a top 5 stack if you lose.
With multiple in the pot you're looking at either 4 over cards or a pair.... and I'd muck it then, due to the fact that I'd have alot lower win% and I could be knocked out of the top 5 if I'd lose the hand (and you'd normally only be about a 33% fav at best). Also, you need to figure that the 2nd short stack will push any flop.. so you're really betting 860 if you call.

If it was later on in the tourney or the chip stacks were different, it would totally change my opinion.
 
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Tue Sep 20, 2011, 01:52 AM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Looks like a pretty easy fold with zero fold equity and a hand that is not at its best multiway. I'd be more inclined to get it in 3-way with KJ suited than 88. Yeah, you might be looking at 55 and A6, but more often than not this looks like a -$EV gamble. Maybe +cEV, but I wouldn't get in here with 88. Now if the sidepot were bigger than the main pot that might change my thinking as 88 is doing pretty well equity-wise and it's still early, but 3-way, I'd fold rather than put 1/3 of my stack in to gamble. In these SnGs you should be able to just fold your way to the push/fold stage and you really don't need to get involved with less than KK for a while.
 
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Tue Sep 20, 2011, 03:46 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Based on your minimal info, my guess is you are facing 2 marignally strong hands.

The initial limper I am thinking is on the lesser of the 2 hands, something like KQ/AT type hand, or a smaller pp that yours. Of course if he is a lag-tard, he may be limp/calling any rag A...but that's a lot to hope for...

The shover could be on just 2 broadways, or a pp up to AA, or total cheese...I'm thinking he can be truly storng because he is in with 2 to run a weaker hand through, OR he may simply be using mis-placed aggression wtith around a 10BB stack. Fact is, he is the more "dangerous" range for you imho, simply because it will be costly to "sheriff", and the negative effects of losing are so large.

Fact is, with the side pot running at only around 60 chips only (once you see the caller). That does not give you enough "cushion" to really want to risk losing 1/3rd of your chips to a wider range of possibilities in the hand of the initial shover.

Starstalker would be a total air-head to call the jam then fold to a re-shove by you, so you are effectively playing for 1/3rd of your stack if you keep going, not the roughly 1/4 you'd need to call...

In a 50/50, sure, you want to accumulate chips, but the threat here of facing at least 3 overs, or possibly a bigger pp than your 88 held by the limp/caller, is just a bit too great to want to keep playing. I am thinking you can find a better spot somewhere along the line, and there is no reason to be trying a hero call at this stage, with your stack.
 
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Thu Sep 22, 2011, 07:41 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Thanks for the great replies!! I did end up folding the hand, I thought their ranges were pretty wide and didn't want to get caught in the middle. I'm just never sure with these middle pairs, and tend to avoid 3 way pots with them. Funny ending, though, I thought Starstalker would have the better hand, no idea why he called.

PokerStars Game #67707417046: Tournament #443189968, $1.35+$0.15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (30/60) - 2011/09/18 16:02:36 CT [2011/09/18 17:02:36 ET]
Table '443189968 1' 10-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: joy7108 (2405 in chips)
Seat 2: fortunboy (640 in chips)
Seat 3: MaggiICE (2195 in chips)
Seat 4: pappelan (2242 in chips)
Seat 5: xpa48x (1495 in chips)
Seat 6: AntoN99913 (2720 in chips)
Seat 7: ELVIS_KRUKOV (920 in chips)
Seat 8: 1StarStalker (860 in chips)
Seat 9: $$$PRIORS59 (1523 in chips)
fortunboy: posts small blind 30
MaggiICE: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joy7108 [8h 8d]
pappelan: folds
xpa48x: folds
AntoN99913: folds
ELVIS_KRUKOV: folds
1StarStalker: calls 60
$$$PRIORS59: folds
joy7108: calls 60
fortunboy: raises 580 to 640 and is all-in
MaggiICE: folds
1StarStalker: calls 580
joy7108: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 9c 6h]
*** TURN *** [9s 9c 6h] [7c]
*** RIVER *** [9s 9c 6h 7c] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
fortunboy: shows [Kd Ah] (a pair of Nines)
1StarStalker: shows [Jc Qh] (a pair of Nines - lower kicker)
fortunboy collected 1400 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1400 | Rake 0
Board [9s 9c 6h 7c 5s]
Seat 1: joy7108 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 2: fortunboy (small blind) showed [Kd Ah] and won (1400) with a pair of Nines
Seat 3: MaggiICE (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: pappelan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: xpa48x folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: AntoN99913 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ELVIS_KRUKOV folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: 1StarStalker showed [Jc Qh] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 9: $$$PRIORS59 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
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Fri Sep 23, 2011, 03:18 AM
(#6)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
fold was the right thing to do i think, its always easy to say after but you would of won that hand
 
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Fri Sep 23, 2011, 10:41 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Looks like a pretty easy fold
^This
 

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