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How does one deal with this?

 
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How does one deal with this? - Fri Sep 23, 2011, 10:17 PM
(#1)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Frustrating...





Dale
 
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Fri Sep 23, 2011, 11:10 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,841
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BronzeStar
that's rough. I'd be making a note and sit at whatever table they're at. They'll lose alot more in the long run, than they'll win.
 
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Fri Sep 23, 2011, 11:40 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Def add villain to your buddy list, but getting back to your play, what was your read on this villain? Because without a very specific read your play wasn't good... you flopped a classic small pot hand with an spr of almost 9 and stacked it off on the flop. Unless the guy is a complete maniac you're going to be getting it in bad the majority of the time here.
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 12:15 AM
(#4)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Def add villain to your buddy list, but getting back to your play, what was your read on this villain? Because without a very specific read your play wasn't good... you flopped a classic small pot hand with an spr of almost 9 and stacked it off on the flop. Unless the guy is a complete maniac you're going to be getting it in bad the majority of the time here.
Read and stats said dumbazz. Both were correct. I reloaded, got my lost money back but before I could get it from him, he was gone. He got pushed around heavily after that hand, go figure. Terrible villian, the kind that one does want at your table. Just bad luck here....Effin irritating though

Enjoying the HUD btw. Thanks for your help Dave. Just getting the colours right for me to help at a glance.

Thanks,

Dale

Last edited by dale442; Sat Sep 24, 2011 at 12:19 AM..
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 01:11 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Glad you're liking the HUD

On the hand, I'll press a bit further. Your check-raise on the flop looks pretty strong, and he 3b ships over it. What's his range here?
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 01:27 AM
(#6)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Glad you're liking the HUD

On the hand, I'll press a bit further. Your check-raise on the flop looks pretty strong, and he 3b ships over it. What's his range here?
Preflop A rag at best. Pure steal.

His 3b looks much more like AK, but more likely AJ A10. An attempt to re-steal with outs.. Very confident in that read.

Now you have me very curious, your read on this is/was??

Thanks,

Dale
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 02:49 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Well my read is far different from yours. You're putting him on hands you can beat, which is a dangerous mistake. Certainly you're ahead of some of his range, but this strong a line will be for value a lot and there should be plenty of hands in his range crushing you.

Preflop: Pure steal is just wishful thinking. Even a guy with a really high steal % from the cut off is entitled to pick up a real hand. But we can give him a loose range.

On the flop, he can have value hands or draws, and some % of bluffs maybe but not many. So let's list them.

Value hands: QQ-AA, AK, KQ, K6s, Q6s, 66, KJ, KT, K9, K8s

Some of those are a stretch as "value" hands... K6s/Q6s is fair for a steal heavy preflop range short handed, KJ-K8s don't really qualify as big pot value hands on this flop but a this guy is bad so it's reasonable to include those.

Draws: All combos of JT, and some combos of AJ, AT are reasonable. With 16 combos of each, let's give him half, 8 each. We'll count all combos of AJ then and discard AT for simplicity, as the calcs will run the same.

Bluffs: Doubt there's many pure bluffs in his range, but he did flip up A4s so there's some. Let's give him all combos of A4 suited and off, that's about 10% bluffs which I think is a tad high personally, but it gives him an overcard out in each of them so it's probably a fair estimate also.

So, running out equity vs. that range I get that we are a 53.6 - 46.4 dog. And that's our very best case scenario imo. Take out K8s and 75% of the gutshot combos instead of 50% of them, and we're running as a 58-42 dog. Against someone who has AK+ and JT (which is what this strong a line will generally be repping vs a better player) you'd be more than a 2-1 dog.

Just some comparisons to think about. As bad as this guy is getting stacks in against him isn't a disaster, but it seems pretty clearly -EV even in our best case scenario. No need to give up a small edge to someone we should have an over all big edge against over time with no fancy or deceptive play required.
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 11:25 AM
(#8)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Well my read is far different from yours. You're putting him on hands you can beat, which is a dangerous mistake. Certainly you're ahead of some of his range, but this strong a line will be for value a lot and there should be plenty of hands in his range crushing you.

Preflop: Pure steal is just wishful thinking. Even a guy with a really high steal % from the cut off is entitled to pick up a real hand. But we can give him a loose range.

On the flop, he can have value hands or draws, and some % of bluffs maybe but not many. So let's list them.

Value hands: QQ-AA, AK, KQ, K6s, Q6s, 66, KJ, KT, K9, K8s

Some of those are a stretch as "value" hands... K6s/Q6s is fair for a steal heavy preflop range short handed, KJ-K8s don't really qualify as big pot value hands on this flop but a this guy is bad so it's reasonable to include those.

Draws: All combos of JT, and some combos of AJ, AT are reasonable. With 16 combos of each, let's give him half, 8 each. We'll count all combos of AJ then and discard AT for simplicity, as the calcs will run the same.

Bluffs: Doubt there's many pure bluffs in his range, but he did flip up A4s so there's some. Let's give him all combos of A4 suited and off, that's about 10% bluffs which I think is a tad high personally, but it gives him an overcard out in each of them so it's probably a fair estimate also.

So, running out equity vs. that range I get that we are a 53.6 - 46.4 dog. And that's our very best case scenario imo. Take out K8s and 75% of the gutshot combos instead of 50% of them, and we're running as a 58-42 dog. Against someone who has AK+ and JT (which is what this strong a line will generally be repping vs a better player) you'd be more than a 2-1 dog.

Just some comparisons to think about. As bad as this guy is getting stacks in against him isn't a disaster, but it seems pretty clearly -EV even in our best case scenario. No need to give up a small edge to someone we should have an over all big edge against over time with no fancy or deceptive play required.
My starting hand would normally be mucked against most villians.

Best case is I hit top pair, this is also the worst case.

Top pair, weak kicker is a place i normally would not place myself. Against this villian it was an insta-call. Pot control could have been a good line to take. Probably could have gotten away from this hand with the A coming on the turn. As I had placed him there
to begin.

A much more aggresive line than I would normally take. Against this villiian, this aggression may have been correct, but still left me in a weak spot and I paid the price. Still cannot figure out what possessed him to play his hand in this manner, but the answer is really irrelevant. Have to learn from how I decided to play my hand. And how a great read may still easily blow up in ones face. More important info in my play, than his.

Getting it in good, is not always the answer.

Thanks Dave,


Dale

Last edited by dale442; Sat Sep 24, 2011 at 11:59 AM..
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 01:58 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by dale442 View Post
Still cannot figure out what possessed him to play his hand in this manner
Good players sometimes go on tilt and do things that make no sense. Bad players (like this villain) do things that make no sense all the time.

Quote:
, but the answer is really irrelevant. Have to learn from how I decided to play my hand. And how a great read may still easily blow up in ones face.
I would just caution to distinguish between a great read and a wishful thinking read that went right. The line between them can be blurry, but when an opponent takes a strong value line and you have no value hands in his range (at the very least you should have monsters in there), that's not a good sign. I still see no reason why the guy can't flip up QQ or KQ or AA/AK in this spot.

Quote:
Getting it in good, is not always the answer.
Getting it in good is always a good thing, but I'm suggesting I don't think you got it in good. His actual hand is irrelevant, sure if he shoved and flipped up ace high we'd snap call, we're way ahead of that hand. But at the decision point we don't know his hand, this is where ranging is so critical. I believe vs. his range we're not getting it in good. If you have a read he has more bluffs in his range that I think he will, ok, definitely factor that into your decision, but a read that he's only on bluffs is very rarely going to be an accurate one.

Great hand for discussion, thanks Dale.
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 03:45 PM
(#10)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Good players sometimes go on tilt and do things that make no sense. Bad players (like this villain) do things that make no sense all the time.



I would just caution to distinguish between a great read and a wishful thinking read that went right. The line between them can be blurry, but when an opponent takes a strong value line and you have no value hands in his range (at the very least you should have monsters in there), that's not a good sign. I still see no reason why the guy can't flip up QQ or KQ or AA/AK in this spot.



Getting it in good is always a good thing, but I'm suggesting I don't think you got it in good. His actual hand is irrelevant, sure if he shoved and flipped up ace high we'd snap call, we're way ahead of that hand. But at the decision point we don't know his hand, this is where ranging is so critical. I believe vs. his range we're not getting it in good. If you have a read he has more bluffs in his range that I think he will, ok, definitely factor that into your decision, but a read that he's only on bluffs is very rarely going to be an accurate one.

Great hand for discussion, thanks Dale.


I didn't believe he or anyone, is bluffing all of the time. Anyone can wake up with a big hand, multiple times in a row as well. Or, improve a marginal hand drastically by hitting a huge flop. A flop that may look like 3 bricks to me.

Maybe a bit of mis-communication. I didn't believe, based on his play that he had anything in this particular spot. I understand your thinking that I couldn't really range him that weak after his 3 bet.

I also understand that stacking off with K9 in that situation looks very loose.

Your basic question/statement I think comes down to this...how the hell could you know he was that weak??
His played was of a very poor LAG/calling station. Going to showdown facing sizable bets with bottom pair. And of course, losing.

I completely believed I did hold the best hand. Not a strong hand, but the best hand on the flop. Obviously, as I was willing to get it all in at that point without the strongest of holdings. All thoughts put me to believe he was on a bluff, or at the very least a semi-bluff. A gutshot draw to broadway, or similiar.

Being 3 bet with similiar holdings against a different villian, in a different spot would have likely been an insta-fold. Far too weak, facing a 3 bet. Single pair with weak kicker.

You bring up great points as usual. I cannot give you an absolute on how I put him on such a weak hand. The info, plus the knowledge he could very well be stealing here again. Dare I say a "feeling". Not really the truth here but I did believe I was correct. Hard to convey ideas sometimes through a forum post.

I completely believed he was looking for the steal, and he would be willing to go over the edge in his attempt. I was correct in this ASSumption. But, does being correct here this time, make for a good decision? Or of sound poker decisions?

So, should I be happy my read was correct, or sad that it was correct?? I do understand the point you are making in regards to this.


Thanks again Dave, all info is welcomed.

Dale

Last edited by dale442; Sat Sep 24, 2011 at 04:04 PM..
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 05:13 PM
(#11)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
I should add a bit more here.

Since I started playing HE, with the gang from work ect, I have always asked myself "What do you have"....over and over and over. I have always thought it was more important to try and figure out what the villians had. Rather than concern myself with my holdings. I know what I have...what could you have??????

Getting online, and playing many more hands made this way of thinking so much more important. Through training sessions, forum ect...(there are some decent training videos out there) I learned a bit of poker terminology as well. No longer do I ask myself "What do you have". It has become "What is his range" ...in this particular situation. So, reading and ranging are huge to me.

Sometimes, my "Radar" (lmao) is off which leads to some real bad decisions. This is where the training and ranging situations has become so much more important. Proper ranging of a villiian based upon quality poker thoughts has helped me improve to a certain degree. Not enough as of yet. I do still consider myself a newbie. With a loooooong way to go.

Your session on Profiling was awesome. I near choked when you described the "Weak" TAG. That, to me, screamed of me. Little experience, but trying. Even though this hand may show me as a bad LAG!!

Hopefully this helps a bit. It probably opened up myself for more questions though.

Don't we all wish could "Range" like Daniel....Hell with ranging...he will tell you exactly what you are holding. Spooky.

Enjoy,

Dale
 
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Sat Sep 24, 2011, 05:52 PM
(#12)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
When i saw the hand play out, i had no reads on the villian, When he Bet 25 on flop i was thinking possible hit the flop possible trying to see where he was.
When you raised him i was think....OH NO your going to hate this by the end.
I may have called on the flop but with only second pair would have been ummin and erring as to putting in more money. if it was 60% i might but a shove would haveing thinking vilians love all Aces.....its top pair or an over card to all flops.

Grade b
 
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Sun Sep 25, 2011, 06:35 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hey Dale, I understand. If you have a strong gut feeling, it's ok to follow that instinct, but I always caution against taking a blind eye to the very thin line between genuine gut feelings and wishful thinking feelings. And no, being right this time does not make a decision good or bad, the result of an individual trial never makes a decision good or bad. What makes a decision good or bad is if, over thousands of trials, it would show a profit or not.
 

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