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implied odds

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implied odds - Tue Sep 27, 2011, 09:55 PM
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barnie427's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 15
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So, here is the scenario: was playing at small stakes table with a bunch of chronic limpers/callers, yup best of both worlds, I guess. Figured I touch upon the fact that no raise, no matter how big (aside from shipping it) was called almost all the way around.

I'm in BB action come around to me 10h 9h (I know I could've raised) so I checked it instead.

flop(rainbow ): 6 J 3 7

button raises 50/100 pot, now here is where implied odds comes into play. Knowing the the 4 people behind me were calling stations should I have called the bet in this situation looking for my 4 outter on the river to complete my possible inside straight?
 
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Tue Sep 27, 2011, 10:42 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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if one had a J... then you have 4 outs, which makes you an 8% favorite to win the pot.

If you have to put in more than 8% of what's currently in the pot, then you do not have the pot odds to draw at an inside str8.
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 03:35 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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You gotta be really REALLY sure you'll get paid to peel the last card, and also have the cash in the effective stack(s) to make it worthwhile.

First question I have though is: how did you get to the TURN (you show 4 board cards) with T hi?
If it checked around on the flop, no one may have enough value in their hand to call the (probably) large bet you'd have to get called to make it worthwhile to peel.

4/46 = 8.7% chance to spike your 4 outer.
100/8.7 = 11.49

This means you'd need to get paid 11.5 times what you call on the turn to make it worthwhile to peel for the spike. Not a whole lot of NL situations will pay you off to that extent, unless one of the villains in the hand had a BIG hand they slow played on the flop, or whether they hold something like 45.

(the only reason you need as little as 11.5 to 1 to call is that you are drawing to the nut hand by the way)

Last edited by JDean; Wed Sep 28, 2011 at 03:38 AM..
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 11:04 AM
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mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
yeah I always consider 4 outers to b 12 to 1, and that's just to make it to 0 ev, which means it doesn't make any difference long term whether you call or fold. so I'd really like to see minimally 14 or 15/1, which is very rarely happens. almost never is somebody that deep stacked, AND willing to give it to you if you hit. so 11.5/1just gets you to (it doesn't make a damn bit of difference) not to a +EV situation if i'm not mistaken. Just my .02

Last edited by mtnestegg; Wed Sep 28, 2011 at 11:10 AM..
 
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implied odds - Wed Sep 28, 2011, 09:55 PM
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barnie427's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 15
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Thanks for the input guys. Initially what I did was fold the hand, knowing that my chances to spike one of my 4 outters was pretty slim and although I was correct in my assumption of the 50 raise being called by the 4 other villains behind me, folding was best scenario for me.

So, JDean we got to the turn by having it knuckled all the way around, and the notion of someone slow playing big pocket pair crossed my mind, the 4 5 possibility or 2 pair was another possibility, so I decided against making a play for the pot although in most cases I would've have.

The final board looked as follows: 6 J 3 7 J rainbow

Eventually I came out the winner at this table by picking my spots and making the right calls. (Still got a long way to go regarding the game, so any other/more suggestions on how I can improve are greatly appreciated. )
 

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