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Can you muck a set in this situation?

 
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Can you muck a set in this situation? - Wed Sep 28, 2011, 04:19 AM
(#1)
HandsOfMidas's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 3
Would you call in this situation? All in shove looks like a bluff or value bet?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=B11083FB6D
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 10:55 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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If I've got a set in that situation, I'm raising more on the flop and more on the turn. I would not want someone drawing at me.
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 03:07 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
If I've got a set in that situation, I'm raising more on the flop and more on the turn. I would not want someone drawing at me.
...especially if you have no intent to FOLD when a 4th straight card shows.
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 03:52 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
If I've got a set in that situation, I'm raising more on the flop and more on the turn. I would not want someone drawing at me.
If I have a set in that situation I'm happy to have someone drawing and I will charge them for it. The flop raise is okay, if a little small. It gives almost exactly 2 to 1 odds. The turn bet is too small though. Once the opponent has called the raise on the flop, you have to assume he'll call a solid turn bet too. I'd bet 3/4 of the pot or so here for value. If he wants to draw, cool. He's getting crappy odds. But...how do I know he's drawing? The flop is relatively dry for a preflop raiser's range...

Quote:
...especially if you have no intent to FOLD when a 4th straight card shows.
Well, that 5 doesn't complete a ton of straight draws really... What hands with an 8 are still around there? 88, 98s, 87s, maybe T8s. , , and are impossible, so we're pretty much left with one combo of 87s, three of 98s, and six of 88. There aren't a ton of sets that beat 77 here either. 99 is unlikely based on the check/call on the turn. What about hands like 45, 55, A5, 65, maybe even some overpairs, hands like 66 that feel sick, etc. A lot of these won't shove the river, but some players will turn those 5x hands into a bluff here. We're getting pretty good odds, as we only need to win 37% of the time to break even. Depending on how aggressive the cutoff is (or how weak he perceives the button), a set of 7s can easily go either way. Against someone who never bluffs it's an easy fold as we're ahead of maybe one hand in his value range, but against an aggressive player who can show up with bluffs here or a fish who overvalues an overpair, I think we have to call.

Put more simply his range is polarized, and if he's never bluffing, easy fold. If he bluffs or is the aforementioned fish, we can call as he has enough bluffs in his range.

What's your read on yourself?

Last edited by oriholic; Wed Sep 28, 2011 at 04:29 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 28, 2011, 05:03 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
+1 ori, and +1 on villain betting more to extract value from your range, a lot of which is drawing to 2 outs.

I think your river bet screams value, but at these stakes weak players like this villain won't fold a strong hand and won't be able to make a read like this anyway so going for max value against a likely set or 2 pair is the optimal play..
 

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