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27ManSnG:QQ Facing Donk Bet Post flop.

 
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27ManSnG:QQ Facing Donk Bet Post flop. - Thu Sep 29, 2011, 05:00 PM
(#1)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
My first table had recently been broken I've been on this table for about 5 hands so I don't have any solid reads. The table as a whole seems loose/passive. The villain here has been active in the past 5 hands, limping into to 3 pots and betting on the flop to take down the last 2 pots, he looks loose/passive to me from his preflop play so far, but evidently aggressive when he makes a hand postflop.


Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2011/09/29 13:31:58 PT [2011/09/29 16:31:58 ET]
Table '448124701 2' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: ubicle (1310 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: NoAcesJohn (3345 in chips)
Seat 3: PaidInFull6 (1350 in chips)
Seat 4: Nukkumatti70 (975 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: 11xex22 (4030 in chips)
Seat 8: kiticar (3835 in chips)
Seat 9: celia rodrig (2220 in chips)
Nukkumatti70: posts small blind 25
11xex22: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PaidInFull6 [Qs Qc]
kiticar: folds
celia rodrig: calls 50
ubicle: folds
NoAcesJohn: calls 50
PaidInFull6: raises 225 to 275
Nukkumatti70: folds
11xex22: calls 225
celia rodrig: folds
NoAcesJohn: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ah Kc Th]
11xex22: bets 150
PaidInFull6: ??

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:05 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 05:29 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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This is a shove or fold spot for you.

You put about 20% of your stack in pre-flop, with a hand that deserves that much, but you got called.
The flop came with 2 overs to your QQ.

The gut shot straight draw possibilities are not enough for you to want to really stake your life on peeling another card, and since you'll have to commit yourself up over 30% of your start stack, you really cannot afford to call. The 2 overs are scary enough for your QQ that I would lean strongly toward a fold.
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 05:31 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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almost all of the time they're going to show up with an A, K or both... I'd muck.

Even if you hit another Q, that may complete their straight.. giving you probably only 4 outs (J's for a striaght).
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 05:48 PM
(#4)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
What do you guys think of my bet sizing pre? I went full pot sized raise because the table seemed loose, trying to charge the stations, but in this case it left me with no postflop maneuverability.

Thinking maybe 3.5X might have had the same effect as 5.5x, but leaving me those extra 100 chips might allow me to get away easier on a bad flop.

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:56 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 06:03 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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if they're stations, the extra chips won't really affect their decision. I'd try to stick with a std bet, as changing it like that can be a tell.
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 06:14 PM
(#6)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
With this dynamic, premium hand vs loose limpers and stations full pot is my std raise size, but at this point the villains don't know that, I haven't made any raises up to this point. I get annoyed by putting 20% of my stack in pre and being put into this spot where I have to lay down post.
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 07:40 PM
(#7)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
I'm with JD on this 1 push or fold ....even 7x isn't going to get em out so look at it as all in or not in...if they r calling a push then note it and if u get unlucky well thats poker ... but next time u know and adjust accordingly. most lags don't think odds so a push is the red light that they notice, and a fold till a better spot means rnd 2 for u! Hard to lay down QQ but I've lost a lot of $$ on that hand and I hate it worse than KK now. I have NO problem folding it !!!!
cheers gl in the future and may ur pocket Aces always stand up ...r0ck
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 07:49 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
With this dynamic, premium hand vs loose limpers and stations full pot is my std raise size, but at this point the villains don't know that, I haven't made any raises up to this point. I get annoyed by putting 20% of my stack in pre and being put into this spot where I have to lay down post.
Don't get annoyed by that fact.

Thing is, you want to get PAID on a hand like QQ, so a pre-flop committing shove is less than optimal...that simply leaves too much room for the LAGs to fold.

You also must recognize that on the current depth of money, since you cannot shove pre and expect to get called, you do not want to cross a committment threshold unless you have a hand you do not intend to fold on any flop. QQ has about a 43% chance of seeing at least 1 over on the flop; that may be a bit too much of a chance to want to commit on this depth of money. AA/KK (0% and 23% chance of at least 1 over respectively), I can see it, but QQ is right there on the cusp.

That makes your 20% bet pretty GOOD really. Versus stations, it is a bet well sized to deny odds but invite calls for more value than a lesser bet. The more likely outcome here is that you flop the over pair, and are now willing to stand with your QQ, so getting the extra value in pre flop is best for that situation.

Betting less simply denies you the value you are likely to see from your bet sizing decision when you do get the "most typical" situation, and that is not good for you.

So overall, well done.
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 08:20 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
+1, it's just a sigh/fold imo. Stacks aren't near deep enough to do anything fancy and we're basically calling for 6 outs as we won't be able to call again on the turn. If the villain had shown a propensity for checking the turn after making a smallish donk bet like this, there'd be some merit to calling 1 time, but we don't know that so it's just a fold.
 
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Thu Sep 29, 2011, 08:24 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Don't get annoyed by that fact.

Thing is, you want to get PAID on a hand like QQ, so a pre-flop committing shove is less than optimal...that simply leaves too much room for the LAGs to fold.

You also must recognize that on the current depth of money, since you cannot shove pre and expect to get called, you do not want to cross a committment threshold unless you have a hand you do not intend to fold on any flop. QQ has about a 43% chance of seeing at least 1 over on the flop; that may be a bit too much of a chance to want to commit on this depth of money. AA/KK (0% and 23% chance of at least 1 over respectively), I can see it, but QQ is right there on the cusp.

That makes your 20% bet pretty GOOD really. Versus stations, it is a bet well sized to deny odds but invite calls for more value than a lesser bet. The more likely outcome here is that you flop the over pair, and are now willing to stand with your QQ, so getting the extra value in pre flop is best for that situation.

Betting less simply denies you the value you are likely to see from your bet sizing decision when you do get the "most typical" situation, and that is not good for you.

So overall, well done.
Regarding preflop bet sizing, I tend to agree with this... vs weak callers who are too loose, the preflop raise sizing is fine.

Our hand went from really strong (premium pair) to really weak (3rd pair) and a guy who we think bets when he has something leads into us... time to pass.
 
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Fri Sep 30, 2011, 01:45 AM
(#11)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Well you guys seem to agree folding was my only play and that my line was fine here, I'll keep making these plays and hopefully the Ace high flops will stop coming. I wanted to post another hand, very similar where I held KK and once again the flop came A high, but I forgot to save the HH, Oh well thanks for all your reply's.

BTW Dave if you could, check the live training forum, I would like to know if Sat. live training will be recorded?

Last edited by PaidInFull6; Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 01:51 AM..
 

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