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A set of 1010's on draw heavy board

 
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A set of 1010's on draw heavy board - Mon Oct 03, 2011, 07:54 AM
(#1)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

Here I find myself in a tournament with a fine flop for my pocket 1010's only to see the hand alter dramatically due to board texture , should I be playing the turn differently .





Dissappointed with the river card denying me any sort of play on the river , your thoughts will be appreciated .

JARGON1977
 
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Mon Oct 03, 2011, 06:58 PM
(#2)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
I'm obviously not any kind of expert here, but it will be interesting to see what the experts say.

IMO when the villain check-raises you on the turn, he has (or is repping that he has) hit his straight already. It's very unlikely he would be check-raising here with an open-ended draw.

Since he is in the BB, he really could have anything, so it's quite possible he did make a straight. I think that's more likely the case than not.

I guess what I would question is not your play on the turn, but why you decided not to carry through with that play on the river, or why you thought the Q falling on the river denied you a play when the villain was already playing as if he had a straight on the previous street.

I think the decision on the turn was -- does he or does he not have a straight, and do I want to risk it -- once you've made the decision that you still think he may *not* have a straight, and you really think your set is still good (and will therefore call, essentially pot-committing yourself), in my uneducated opinion, you need to carry it through by being willing to put all your chips in on the river, because that is most likely what he will require you to do.

I could be completely wrong about all that, though.
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 03:02 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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I do not see much to dis-like about your play of this hand at all. There MIGHT be info you are not including that would change that, but given the stuff here, your actions are all justifiable...

PRE FLOP:

With TT in middle position, and on this depth of moeny, you certainly have enough of a hand to raise.
If you face stiff play back, TT can be folded without much real damage to your stack, so you really benefit by limitin the field size to make your hand play better.

FLOP:

You hit "gin" by flopping middle set, but with 2 clubs, and a couplpe of solid straight draw hands an opponent might hold, this booard does carry enough "threats" to really want to give a free card when it checks to you.

You do not slow play, and you also do not bet exceedingly large and "stick" yourself to this pot too early. Your 200 chip bet, just over half pot, is well sized to deny odds, and also will tend to invite loose draw calls, so it is a very proper thing to do here if you feel the opponent is very likely to overplay draws. It also puts you about 12^ into the pot, so you need to strat recognizing that another half pot type bet is going to push you close to a committment point...were you aware of that?

But overall, Well done.

TURN:

The 9h on the turn only completes only 1 (QJ) of the many draws here that started as 8+ out draws, so your slightly UNDER half pot size bet behind the check is fine as a "tester". But the key to the validity of this bet is whether or not you have a "plan" for what to do agaisnt the opponent you are facing, based upon ANY of the actions he might make.

If there is little chance he would bluff raise you, and also little chance he would call a half pot bet with LESS than your set (a "tight" player), then you might have been better off checking to control the pot, and turning your set into a "draw hand" to the full house (exercise pot control). doing this would allow you to take a "free card" in hopes of boating, it may induce a river bluff by the opponent as his "last chance" to win the hand on a busted draw, or it may allow you to face a CALL-ABLE river bet by a hand which has caught up to you. To be honest, this is a pretty nitty line aganst all but the most rocky players, or against the most astute ones...

The counter-point to the line above is that by checking this turn, you are allowing a drawing opponent a "free card" when he may have given up to a turn bet with only 1 to come; this might end up beating you. You also deny yourself any added value you may have gotten into the pot by a very loose calling opponent who might have stuck around without correct odds for a turn bet; this loose opponent will probably bet/raise the river if he hits and fold if he doesn't.

Your difficulties extend to your stack size as well. Despite making very "standard" bets pre-flop and on the flop, any reasonable bet (from between 40 and 60% pot) will put you very close to a 30 to 35% investment "committment point". With a single paired hand, it would be EASY to fold after making your 350 or similar) turn bet, but with a set it is far more tricky to muck if you do face play back. This is why it becomes VITAL to have info you can use regarding the aggression level, semi-bluff/bluff frequency of your opponent, as well as a pretty firm idea about what he considers a strong enough hand to RAISE on various board textures (does he over play 1 pair hands for instance?). As played, per the "Baluga theorem" (see this: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/ ) you REALLY need to re-assess the strength of your hand, and what the opponent might be holding when you see that check raise on the turn, and you can only do that effectively if you have info you can use.

I CAN see why you'd call the min raise, even though it does push you past a typical committment point. But in doing that, you need to be aware of the chances you have to "catch up" if you ARE behind, and also how much the opponent will be willing to stack off if he does hold a better hand than you. Let's look at the "implied odds" for your hand here...

Chance to boat or quad up: 10 outs (1 T, 3 K's, 3 7's, 3 9's), 46 unknown cards. This equates to a 21.7% chance to boat+.
This means you must realize roughly a 3.6 to 1 return on investment for that 350 if you DO draw out, to make the chance worthwhile.


When faced with calling the 350 min raise, there is 1775 in the pot and you must call 350.
Right there that is about 5.1 to 1 pot odds.
So even if your opponent check/folds a straight on a paired board river, thus adding no more value for you, you have the right price to call that 350.
It is not quite as simple as that though...

Unless you will fold to ANY bet on the river if you do not see the board pair up, you msut account for how much you would be willing to call WITHOUT a improvement into your total cost to continue. It is up to you to set your own price for a river "crying call", and add that to the total cost to continue though. For me, since the 350 call leaves me with just about 1715 (34BB), I would probably be willing to go with a call of about 14 to 19BB (700 to 950) without improvement versus "typical" opponents. The key factor is I would use my "read" of the bluff frequency of my opponent, especially if he is willing to fire a bluff "bullet" on a busted draw, to adjust this number...it may go all the way up to my entire stack, or all the way down to 0 based on the strength of that read. Let's call it 800 though that we'd make a river crying call though...

This pushes our "cost" to 1150. The pot we'd WIN would then be 2125 + 800 (assuming our villain bet our EXACT top end call amount).
(We can remove the chance of a re-shove by our set on the river without improvement, since that would only fold out worse and get better to call in almost all situations, due to the extreme pot committment by the villain at that point.)
This means our real implied odds cost is 1150 to win 2925, or 2.54 to 1...UNDER what we "need" in terms of a right price.
THAT means we must note a willingness in our opponent to put MORE into the pot if we do "hit", in order for us to have a good implied odds price to call the min raise.

After his min raised turn, the villain has just 1446 left in his stack.
If he launches an 800 river bet, that leaves him just 646 behind, and has about 74% of his chips in the pot.
He'd be pretty silly to FOLD once he is that deep, especially if he does have a straight.

This means we can "assume" by calling the turn min raise, we are "playing for stacks" against the villain IF WE HIT.
With our max price to continue set at 1150, this means we will have a chance to win 2125 + 1446 = 3571.
3571/ 1550 = 3.1 to 1 IMPLIED ODDS to hit our boat+.

While strictly speaking, this is NOT the right price to call, it is quite close.
We only consider "ideal" moves by the villain to extract the maximum value from us.
As long as we stick firmly to the set price we are willing to call on the river without improvement, 3.1 to 1 implied odds is about the WORST CASE for what we could expect; we might get as high as the 5.1 to 1 direct POT ODDS if villain holds a straight, and checks to a 3rd club...right?
This means our "real" risk/reward valuation lies somewhere between 5.1 to 1 and 3.1 to 1.
If we only need 3.6 to 1 to "break even" on a boat+ draw, that is enough of a range of possibilites to weigh in our favor of calling the min bet.

Did you consider these implied odds thought when you called the min bet, even in minimal terms of: "gee, the pot is getting pretty big, and it is only 350 more to call into that pot. If I boat I might get more, and I have about a 20% chance to boat. I call!" ? Going to the depth I have stated here, making all those calcs in the heat of the moment (or at least making estimates of these calcs), does become easier with experience, so getting close is good enough really...very few things are certain in poker, right?

So if you did consider implied odds even in a rough form, that is enough in this spot to make your call justifiable, even though it took you past a committment point.

Nice job.

RIVER:

This here is pretty standard actually...

When the villain jams on the 4th straight card on the board, and a whole raft of straight draws are now filled, it is far too costly to us to call and be wrong with our set.

We can move on with 34BB, and still have some room to re-build if we fold.

All we can do is realize that if this jamoke DID have the straight, he just made it very EASY for us to fold a quite solid "2nd best hand", and thereby he missed out on value he might have gained from us.

This means if he had the straight, he made a mistake Per the Fundemental Theorem of Poker (see this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker ) , and from that mistake we gained value even though we lost chips in the hand. (we gained value by not losing MORE chips)

Whether we were bluffed or not, based on the info we had we made solid decisions throughout the hand. If he bluffed us, well good for him...we still have life, and can survive, but if we had called and were wrong (if he was not bluffing), we'd be crippled. Making solid decisions with the info available is the best we can do, because very very few things are 100% certain in poker.

So very well done in the hand Jargon, good on you.

(P.S. Can you tell by the sheer "bulk" of the words spent on each street which decision was probably the MOST CRITICAL to you here?)

Last edited by JDean; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 03:08 AM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 05:28 AM
(#4)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Quote:
Did you consider these implied odds thought when you called the min bet, even in minimal terms of: "gee, the pot is getting pretty big, and it is only 350 more to call into that pot. If I boat I might get more, and I have about a 20% chance to boat. I call!" ? Going to the depth I have stated here, making all those calcs in the heat of the moment (or at least making estimates of these calcs), does become easier with experience, so getting close is good enough really...very few things are certain in poker, right?
Yes , at this point I assumed he either hit a straight or was repping one , be that as it may I also thought he might be offering me a chance ot fold an unmade hand that , was only continuing an aggressive line (preflop , flop & turn) . Was he now min raising a draw with that same intention ?

But with 10 outs to the full house I reasoned I had 22% chance of a Boat and therefore the min raise looked like a simple call to me at the time , with the intention of seeing what price I'm given on the river to call with a 'set of TT's' .

I felt I had to continue and felt comfortable with it , he may have only hit 2 pair on the turn . However when the Q arrives on the river , I know this card is far from ideal and was clearly forced to fold .


Quote:
(P.S. Can you tell by the sheer "bulk" of the words spent on each street which decision was probably the MOST CRITICAL to you here?)
Yep , I did not consider 'checking for pot control on the turn' as I had such a strong hand and , again (like the flop) I did not want to offer a free card . On this occasion it would have made the river decision just as simple and , even priced in a call or enabled me to play for full value , if the river was a blank .

I sighed 'awful board' & folded .

Last edited by JARGON1977; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 07:30 AM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 01:28 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I'd also like to note Jargon...

A semi bluff turn min raise is a pretty "sophisticated" play.

Against most micro players, that is play is probably one you will not see a whole lot.

You are spot on in your assessment that if you still have the better hand on the turn, it is (almost) SOLELY because a micro stakes players i over valuing a hand like 2 pair on this very threatening board texture.

Still, after denying the free turn card, I gotta say you had enough reason to call the min bet to peel the river on your "draw"...
 

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