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Good made hand drawing to a monster

 
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Good made hand drawing to a monster - Tue Oct 04, 2011, 08:57 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I have replayed this hand to myself several times and have a good idea what I was thinking when I took this line but it does seem it might have been a slightly odd line to take. Perhaps our resident experts can explain how it might have been played better, either to extract more value or save more chips, depending on whether I go on to win or lose the showdown, which is omitted.

The hand is from a $0.25 45 player sitngo with 10min blinds and this is only the 10th hand in.
I have no reads on my opponents.

I will post my original thoughts behind my decisions once | have some responses.


Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 09:16 AM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
I dont like you flat calling the original 80 bet, I would bang it up to isolate, at this level you will see lots of A rag raises OOP, as well as KQ which would be my main worry now.. if he had AA or KK they are probably shoving pre, because value betting is almost non existent in these games.

you have a strong hand, but missed the nuts, tread carefully
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 09:49 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I hadn't paid much attention to reviewing my preflop flat call, because of how much more interesting it got postflop.

With no reads on the original raiser and given it was a 4x raise UTG I would normally just call with AK from my late position as I think the original bet size is probably enough to isolate us in a lot of cases with just the button and blinds to act at this early stage. Though I am never surprised when the BB calls any number or size of raises at this level. I dont really want to reraise to say 150 and put 10% of my stack out there preflop and then miss. If he had min-raised or 2.2-2.5x raised I would more likely have reraised to 80-100 to try to isolate.


Given how the board came I was glad I had flatted as it gave me more leeway to either pot control or get it all in - if only I could have decided which was the best of those lines to take on each street...

Cheers

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 09:51 AM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 03:36 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
PRE FLOP

I do not mind the flat pre flop really.
While AKo is a strong hand, it will miss the flop about 66% of the time.
It is far easier to fold 80 than it is to fold 200 to 300 on this depth of money.

If you had more info on the call range/fold range of the UTG raiser, then a 3Bet is probably better, but without that info a "fit or fold" approach is not too bad here.

FLOP

You hit this flop pretty hard, with top/top and the nut flush draw.

The villain leads for a solid amount (195 into a 260 pot, 75% pot), and you raise, making it 420 to go.

Your hand strength is certainly "enough" to justify a raise, since you may be called by lesser Aces a decent protion of the time.
Plus, if you ARE behind you have the draw to the nut hand to give you "outs".

To be honest though, your raise sizing was pretty committing to you as it took you over 33% into the pot. I gotta ask you this:
If the villain had JAMMED over your raise to 420, would you have folded this hand?

I know I would not have, not after putting 500 in off a 1470 stack...I'd live and die on my flush draw outs if I must.

If you are NOT folding now though, are you likely to fold later?
Again, chances are that you will find it hard to do so after putting this many chips in...

Altogether, this then asks the question: why not shove all in NOW, and exercise maximum fold equity?

To be honest, I do not like that, because it leaves too much room to allow the villain to make a "good fold" versus our top/top hand.
But if he were willing to lead 75% pot, then call a 3bet of 115% of his raise (barely over a min raise), mightn't he also call slightly MORE in the re-raise?

altogether, you are faced with a cloud of conflicting "possibilities". Those are:

1) Do I have the best hand right now, or do I only hold the best DRAW?
This leads to the question...

2) Do I want him to CALL a raise, or FOLD to a raise?
This leads to the question...

3) Do I raise MORE, maybe even going all in (making all my later decisions easier), or do I bet LESS or even flat, to control the pot?

To be honest, most of these questions only have their answers within opponent reads. Without those reads, we probably wan to fall back on a "standard" type play...

To my way of thinking, the "standard" play here would be to make the 3Bet on the flop equal to arounf 150% to 250% of the flop bet (between about 500 to 600 to go).
Since your 420 bet is committing anyway, adding that little bit more is not really going to commit you more to the pot, and it may help to clarify your committment more than the lesser bet you made.

I do not want to go much MORE than 600 though, beause that would allow an AQ> hand to fold too easily; I WANT value in if my hand is the best...but I think the slightly larger sizing gets a bit more value in without greatly increasing the risk of a correct fold by the villain.

For LATER decisions as well, you must recognize that the villain is just about as committed here as you are too...

TURN

After the villain does flat your 3Bet on the flop, you gotta think he is still either on a better or a worse made hand, and is certainly on a worse draw (if drawing).

The only way your 220 bet into the 1100 chip pot with you having only 970 in your stack is if you intend to FOLD on at least some river cards, OR if you have the info to tell you that a bet of that size will induce a shove you intend to call NOW.

You probably shouldn't fold on any river with your hand after getting this deep, and you said you lack info, so...

Personally, I am not saying you "must" go all in here.
Again, that may get worse hands to fold and better ones to call when your draw now only has 1 card to come.
But if he is in that deep too (as a percentage of his stack), you can probably extract a bit MORE than 220 from the villain here.

I think I'd be more partial to about a 500 to 600 turn bet if I wanted to be "tricky" and ensure a double up against an opponet who will over value top pair/middle kicker hands, but I am pretty sure I would be happy taking the pot right here by jamming if he does not have enough of a hand to call...

All in all, a bet LARGER than the 220 you made it will tend to clarify your decision a lot more than the lesser amount...there is no way you can fold and "save" 300 or 400 if you make the larger bet.

See?

RIVER

No way I'm folding here, no matter what the villain does, not with about 50% of my chips in the pot.
If he has better than my top/top hand, so be it.

This is why I'd be MUCH more in favor of clarifying my decision with bigger turn bet.

Last edited by JDean; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 03:42 PM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 04:10 PM
(#5)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

RIVER

No way I'm folding here, no matter what the villain does, not with about 50% of my chips in the pot.
If he has better than my top/top hand, so be it.

This is why I'd be MUCH more in favor of clarifying my decision with bigger turn bet.

If you would not fold to the villain betting the river, when the villain actually only checks the river, do you think I am correct to check, or should I be betting the river myself, given that I have missed the draw and with top/top am vulnerable to a lot of hands?

(sorry to start with the endgame, I am still contemplating your comprehensive post on the rest of the hand - thanks very much for that.)

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 05:46 PM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

FLOP

You hit this flop pretty hard, with top/top and the nut flush draw.

The villain leads for a solid amount (195 into a 260 pot, 75% pot), and you raise, making it 420 to go.

Your hand strength is certainly "enough" to justify a raise, since you may be called by lesser Aces a decent protion of the time.
Plus, if you ARE behind you have the draw to the nut hand to give you "outs".

To be honest though, your raise sizing was pretty committing to you as it took you over 33% into the pot. I gotta ask you this:
If the villain had JAMMED over your raise to 420, would you have folded this hand?

I know I would not have, not after putting 500 in off a 1470 stack...I'd live and die on my flush draw outs if I must.

If you are NOT folding now though, are you likely to fold later?
Again, chances are that you will find it hard to do so after putting this many chips in...

Altogether, this then asks the question: why not shove all in NOW, and exercise maximum fold equity?

To be honest, I do not like that, because it leaves too much room to allow the villain to make a "good fold" versus our top/top hand.
But if he were willing to lead 75% pot, then call a 3bet of 115% of his raise (barely over a min raise), mightn't he also call slightly MORE in the re-raise?

altogether, you are faced with a cloud of conflicting "possibilities". Those are:

1) Do I have the best hand right now, or do I only hold the best DRAW?
This leads to the question...

2) Do I want him to CALL a raise, or FOLD to a raise?
This leads to the question...

3) Do I raise MORE, maybe even going all in (making all my later decisions easier), or do I bet LESS or even flat, to control the pot?

To be honest, most of these questions only have their answers within opponent reads. Without those reads, we probably wan to fall back on a "standard" type play...

To my way of thinking, the "standard" play here would be to make the 3Bet on the flop equal to arounf 150% to 250% of the flop bet (between about 500 to 600 to go).
Since your 420 bet is committing anyway, adding that little bit more is not really going to commit you more to the pot, and it may help to clarify your committment more than the lesser bet you made.

I do not want to go much MORE than 600 though, beause that would allow an AQ> hand to fold too easily; I WANT value in if my hand is the best...but I think the slightly larger sizing gets a bit more value in without greatly increasing the risk of a correct fold by the villain.

For LATER decisions as well, you must recognize that the villain is just about as committed here as you are too...

TURN

After the villain does flat your 3Bet on the flop, you gotta think he is still either on a better or a worse made hand, and is certainly on a worse draw (if drawing).

The only way your 220 bet into the 1100 chip pot with you having only 970 in your stack is if you intend to FOLD on at least some river cards, OR if you have the info to tell you that a bet of that size will induce a shove you intend to call NOW.

You probably shouldn't fold on any river with your hand after getting this deep, and you said you lack info, so...

Personally, I am not saying you "must" go all in here.
Again, that may get worse hands to fold and better ones to call when your draw now only has 1 card to come.
But if he is in that deep too (as a percentage of his stack), you can probably extract a bit MORE than 220 from the villain here.

I think I'd be more partial to about a 500 to 600 turn bet if I wanted to be "tricky" and ensure a double up against an opponet who will over value top pair/middle kicker hands, but I am pretty sure I would be happy taking the pot right here by jamming if he does not have enough of a hand to call...

All in all, a bet LARGER than the 220 you made it will tend to clarify your decision a lot more than the lesser amount...there is no way you can fold and "save" 300 or 400 if you make the larger bet.

See?

RIVER

No way I'm folding here, no matter what the villain does, not with about 50% of my chips in the pot.
If he has better than my top/top hand, so be it.

This is why I'd be MUCH more in favor of clarifying my decision with bigger turn bet.
PREFLOP
I'm happy with just calling preflop, and obviously even happier to then hit the flop so well.


FLOP
When the original preflop aggressor leads with a decent sized c-bet, having no reads or stats on his c-betting tendencies I am not sure this has too much real meaning. I am obviously not going to fold. I also want rid of the 3rd party, so I am going to reraise and when the SB folds to the strong flop betting I am interested to see the villain flat call my reraise. If he had shoved over the top at this point I was going to call. As he didn't I rethought why he would have just called.


1) He has a made hand that has hit the flop.

Includes Ax where I am ahead of all excluding AJ/A8, a set of Aces/Jacks/8s that I am behind all of, but with AA less likely given my blocker. Or he may have already hit a flush with two spades, QT or T9 spades are possible opening hands UTG for some players and I have no reads, but I think these and other lower XsXs hands are unlikely candidates.

Overall postflop I think it very likely he has a made hand and that I am ahead of most of them and can outdraw all of them. I really wanted him to keep putting chips in. My postflop reraise probably was a little small but I felt that if I reraised his C-bet and he folded I was losing value and if I reraised even a minimum raise and he came along he would be chasing to the river.

2) He has no made hand but strong straight or flush draws - from my point of view - get the crayons out - we have a drawing contest


TURN
When the turn card is a dud and he checks I am pretty much where I was before, I believe he has a made hand that may call smaller bets but might be equally scared off by strong bets or a shove. I am also thinking I can still get it all in on the river and he will call there if he has put more in here, but well might fold here if I shove. To be honest I was in two minds and in retrospect prefer JDeans option of a larger raise.

RIVER
The river is a bad card for me because it kills my draws and may have made the villains (if he held KQ). And it also leaves him ahead with the same hands he could have been ahead with all along, two pairs, now with the addition of AT, sets or any 2spades. When he checks I kind of bottle it because if I believed before I was ahead of most of his range why should I change my mind now? I could not really say I was putting him on AT/AJ/A8/A3/KQ and don't really think he has 2 spades either unless he was open raising very wide UTG and got a lucky flop. I suppose I just didn't want to bet again, get called and see him turn up those hands that beat me so I checked. Don't know if this is correct or not, or even if it comes under that category of hands only likely to get called with better.

Anyway - will post the finale shortly.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 06:40 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
If you would not fold to the villain betting the river, when the villain actually only checks the river, do you think I am correct to check, or should I be betting the river myself, given that I have missed the draw and with top/top am vulnerable to a lot of hands?

(sorry to start with the endgame, I am still contemplating your comprehensive post on the rest of the hand - thanks very much for that.)

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
I would definately check behind a check at that point without improvement to the nut flush.

The villain chased all the way down on SOMETHING, right?

If that "something" is just a draw, he is not likely to put the rest of his chips in on a busted draw.

If he has made 2 pair+ and is ahead, you've no reason to fire a bet which will get called by better and fold out worse.

with just 1 pair here, and both you and the opponent being so deeply invested, it is quite "thin value" to fire a river bet behind a check in hopes he holds something like AQ and calls. That may trigger a check/raise that costs you your entire stack. It is definately better to go forward losing half your stack than all your stack.

This is also why I would rather get that value in on the TURN, when he is more likely to call that extra value with a lesser hand, because on the turn he still has "hope" to spike if he is behind.

See?

Last edited by JDean; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 10:04 PM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 06:47 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Consider this in regards to the small sizing of your flop bet...

You say you bet small to keep him around. That is fine.

but if he has a BETTER hand than top/top...do you really want that? a bigger bet tends to have more fold equity.

If he does NOT have a better hand than yours, say an AQ without a spade, aren't there are lot of turns which might come to "dry up" your subsequent action from this villain? If one of those cards does come, you then LOSE value you might have gotten earlier in the hand.

This is why I said what I did about your re-raise sizing...

Since the amount you did select (or any rr amount) has you committed anyway, and since that means you are NOT folding, why not get as much value in as soon as possible to avoid having a card comes that will make your opponent fold? an All in probably "value owns" you beause only better calls, and worse folds, but your 115% RR was probably smaller than what you COULD have gotten by worse.

See?

Last edited by JDean; Tue Oct 04, 2011 at 06:51 PM..
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 07:02 PM
(#9)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks again JDean -

I do understand all your points. I have been through quite a steep learning curve over the last few months but a lot of the nuances of bet sizing, especially when I have to think quickly at the table in a possibly complex situation, don't always come so easy. I find the help you and others give here is very valuable, I just need to get it implanted a bit stronger in my noggin so I recognise these situations with more clarity under normal game pressure.

Here is the outcome.


Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner


Huge sigh of relief, because I have been getting whipped all over the shop the last few days. Still only managed a min cash in this tourney but that is the best I have had all week so I will take it.

Good luck all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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talk about suspense! - Tue Oct 04, 2011, 07:13 PM
(#10)
Deleted user
At last - much discussion on this one in our 'drum'.

I reckoned QQ with one of them being a spade.

Mon compadre reckoned a lower ace that did not match the board (Other than their ace of course)

So I suppose we calculated eah of his cards between us!

Well done - hope things start to look up now for you. JD 's and your analysis both very interesting.

nv
 
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Tue Oct 04, 2011, 10:02 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
ooooooooo...

My actual "read" was the best hope was that you were facing AQ with the Qs...

But the real range of what the opponent has here is somewhat narrow.

This is because:

1) He raises UTG. That tends to narrow to a somewhat strong range.

2) He calls the flop re-raise, and somewhat commits. This also indicates a strong hand, but also likely a strong draw. Thing is, at this point a lot of villains will also tend to be weak enough to chase ANY flush paired flush draw here.

The deeper you got into the hand, the fewer the made hands you are ahead of became. That is the major arguement for not running the risk of a thin river value bet.

You should note there...there ARE some who advocate making that bet because you are so deep...

Personally, I prefer to get my value in early though, if I'm note intending to fold, as that prevents the chance I let the villain off the hook.
 
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Wed Oct 05, 2011, 05:29 AM
(#12)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I suppose I can be half satisfied with my play, in that it seems I did not make any really wrong decisions in the 4 I took (call the preflop raise/reraise the flop bet/bet on the turn/check the river).

I just need to get the bet sizing tuned in a bit more, as I see it would have made each subsequent decision simpler if I committed to a bigger reraise on flop and/or a bigger bet on the turn. I would certainly have got more value by increasing the bet sizing in earlier streets.

Good luck all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Wed Oct 05, 2011, 02:32 PM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Definately EdinMan...

Your bet sizing is not TERRIBLE here, as long as you recognized the committing nature of them and you did, per your replies).

It is merely a difference between a "good" and a "better" decision based on the info you have to work with. After the fact, it is easy to point out the "better" decision, that does not mean what you did choose to do was BAD...

The value of this forum is that it can help you to "think through" hands differently in the moment, and possibly integrate all the info you have to make the BEST decision you can in the actual hand.
 

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