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Should I Have Listened to my Thoughts and Folded AKo Here?

 
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Should I Have Listened to my Thoughts and Folded AKo Here? - Wed Oct 05, 2011, 01:18 AM
(#1)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Very early in a SNG, I was dealt AKo in MP.

UTG made a 6x bet (granted, when the blinds are 10/20, that's not really much), and UTG+1 called.

Now, when it came around to me, I thought to myself:

"How does the gap theory apply here? In order to call this raise, I need to have as strong or stronger a hand than they raised with. People usually don't make (or call) 6x raises from EP without a monster, even at the lowest level of blinds. What hands could they have? If I'm up against AA, I'm almost certainly screwed. If I'm up against KK, I'm most likely screwed as well. If it's AQ, I've got a decent chance, but if it's QQ or even JJ I could be in serious trouble.

"And how will I know what to do when the flop comes down? If the people in earlier position bet, how am I to interpret my standing looking at an ace, a king, both, or neither..."

All in all, I realized the situation was quite ambiguous and didn't really want to be in it.

However, because I had a "monster" myself, for some reason I felt obligated to play it, as if it would be silly to fold AK just because of an EP raise and a call.

However, I certainly didn't feel confident enough to re-raise, so I just flatted it.

It turns out I totally missed the flop, so folding to a bet there was an easy decision.

My question is, should I have just laid this down in the first place, given my skepticism about what I could achieve by playing it?

Thanks for your help,

~Luv

 
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Wed Oct 05, 2011, 01:31 AM
(#2)
Deleted user
AK is one hand that people stumble with for the main reason it doesnt always hit.

I would have to base my actions on the few previous hands and what these players stats are like.
With two Early position plays I would like to say I fold this and think that is the proper play preflop.
Its a leak I am working on as well,since I call without really setting up a game plan.

Oh I missed,fold...But its funny cause most of the time Im the aggressor preflop and I check knowing damn well what that looks like to the villians. But some times its a blessing because they will float you thinking you will give up at some point in the hand and they will pounce.
But of course you trapped them..

I like a fold preflop early on especially.
One player raising to much feels like he could be protecting say TT+ and a flat right after would worry me as well. I would like to define their hands and to do that you would have to bet almost 480 to find out. Its to risky to put that much in and have them jam or someone in between.
 
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Thu Oct 06, 2011, 12:24 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
On this depth of money, your flat is not that bad; folding 120 on a flop miss is not going to kill your overall chances to win the event. This is, however, a pretty "passive" play, and one which tends to leave you "card dependant".

Had you 3bet, you may either see a strong 4Bet by the initial raiser (to which you could then fold or jam), OR you may have seen the UTG raiser then check the flop to you in fear you held a premium pair. A C-Bet may have taken down the pot if the UTG raiser holds something like 88/99, and there is an over card or 2 on the flop.

Keep in mind though, a "standard" 3 bet in this spot would cost you roughly 300 to 420 (a raise of 1.5 to 2.5 times the initial raise), and is a more "costly" fold for you if the either of the opponents calls, then donk leads at a flop you've missed. This is why with the depth of money you have, playing "fit or fold" with a hand like to flop top/top is not terrible, especially if you do not have any read yet on their raise range and their ability to fold.

If you ARE on shallower money, say around 20 to 30BB, folding 6BB away after callign is not as good an option. The fact AK will be racing all but AA/KK means you;d have enough "reason" to take that race if you feel at least some of the time the raiser would not need a pocket pair to enter the pot.
 
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Thu Oct 06, 2011, 01:00 PM
(#4)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
On this depth of money, your flat is not that bad; folding 120 on a flop miss is not going to kill your overall chances to win the event.
Okay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
This is, however, a pretty "passive" play, and one which tends to leave you "card dependant".

Had you 3bet, you may either see a strong 4Bet by the initial raiser (to which you could then fold or jam), OR you may have seen the UTG raiser then check the flop to you in fear you held a premium pair. A C-Bet may have taken down the pot if the UTG raiser holds something like 88/99, and there is an over card or 2 on the flop.

Keep in mind though, a "standard" 3 bet in this spot would cost you roughly 300 to 420 (a raise of 1.5 to 2.5 times the initial raise), and is a more "costly" fold for you if the either of the opponents calls, then donk leads at a flop you've missed.
So I'm getting the impression here that overall, the reward/risk ratio of 3-betting in this situation was not favourable enough to execute that move. Is that right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
This is why with the depth of money you have, playing "fit or fold" with a hand like to flop top/top is not terrible, especially if you do not have any read yet on their raise range and their ability to fold.
And I didn't. Both opponents were new to me; no stats or observations to go by, and the game was in very early stages.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
If you ARE on shallower money, say around 20 to 30BB, folding 6BB away after calling is not as good an option. The fact AK will be racing all but AA/KK means you;d have enough "reason" to take that race if you feel at least some of the time the raiser would not need a pocket pair to enter the pot.
Understood. I would definitely need some more background information on the raiser before proceeding in that case.

It sounds like, from your entire analysis, it was better to go ahead and play the AKo in this situation (in some form, either flatting or 3-betting) than to fold it. Is that correct?

Thanks again for all your help!
 
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Thu Oct 06, 2011, 03:06 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
3betting versus calling in this spot really depends on what you've observed of your opponents at this point...

If the opponents will either FOLD quite often to your 3Bet, OR 4Bet much lighter than AK very often, then a 3Bet is better.

If the opponents are the types who may change gears and do a variety of things with the SAME hand strength, or the same thing with a VARIETY of hands, then I would be more prone to calling and leveraging my position to play post flop poker.

There are many MANY factors which weigh into whether you want to call or raise (or even fold in rare cases) a hand like AKo.

There is a saying Mike Caro has put out: "In the beginning, everything is even money"

Think about this example for a second: If you are lost and starving in a forest, and you come upon some berries on a bush, would you eat them? The answer is, of course, it depends.

If they are poison you may get even sicker, or even die. But if you go much longer without food, you may pass out and die anyway before you are found. Your answer decision is pretty much "even money".

If you are familiar with the woods though, you may know if the berries are poisoned or not by appearence.

Even if you are not familiar with woods in this area, you may know how to "survive" in the wilderness; this might lead you to do such things as test the berries by squeezing some of the juice into the hollow spot inside your elbow (to see if it causes severe irritation, which could be indicative of poison), look to see if any birds or animals have eaten berries off the bush, or other things which could help you weigh the unknown with MORE info. That would tip your choice away from 50/50.

But you can only change the decision off a 50/50 chance if you KNOW about these additional things...see?

In a spot like this, with AKo, you are never going to be 100% "sure" about what will happen, but the more info you CAN use for your decision, the more you can configure your decision to best fit what you WANT to see happen in the hand; that doesn't mean you are going to get what you want, but you have a better chance of seeing what you want happen, if you can use info to somewhat "predict" what your opponents might do in a variety of circumstances.

When you are new at a table and lack info about opponents' tendencies, then you must fall back on jsut the info you HAVE: the relative "strength" of AKo, the chance it has of improving, the quality of that likely improvement, your stack size and the opponents' stack sizes and the ability of those stacks to PAY you for any improvement you make, etc etc etc..

See?

So in your spot here, lacking info on the opponents which might steer you more towards a 3Bet, or more towards even a FOLD (only against uber nits who only play gr 1 hands), the value of AKo is enough to want to take a flop much more often than not, and the damage of missing the flop and folding is little enough to your stack that you really should not sweat that loss overly much.

See?
 
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Thu Oct 06, 2011, 05:36 PM
(#6)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
3betting versus calling in this spot really depends on what you've observed of your opponents at this point...Think about this example for a second: If you are lost and starving in a forest, and you come upon some berries on a bush, would you eat them? The answer is, of course, it depends. ...Even if you are not familiar with woods in this area, you may know how to "survive" in the wilderness; this might lead you to do such things as test the berries by squeezing some of the juice into the hollow spot inside your elbow (to see if it causes severe irritation, which could be indicative of poison), look to see if any birds or animals have eaten berries off the bush, or other things which could help you weigh the unknown with MORE info. That would tip your choice away from 50/50.

But you can only change the decision off a 50/50 chance if you KNOW about these additional things...see?
Yes. Very clearly. Thanks for the great analogy!

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
In a spot like this, with AKo, you are never going to be 100% "sure" about what will happen, but the more info you CAN use for your decision, the more you can configure your decision to best fit what you WANT to see happen in the hand...When you are new at a table and lack info about opponents' tendencies, then you must fall back on just the info you HAVE: the relative "strength" of AKo, the chance it has of improving, the quality of that likely improvement, your stack size and the opponents' stack sizes and the ability of those stacks to PAY you for any improvement you make, etc etc etc..

See?
Yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
So in your spot here, lacking info on the opponents which might steer you more towards a 3Bet, or more towards even a FOLD (only against uber nits who only play gr 1 hands), the value of AKo is enough to want to take a flop much more often than not, and the damage of missing the flop and folding is little enough to your stack that you really should not sweat that loss overly much.

See?
Yes, I do. Thanks for clarifying.

Hopefully, over time, as I continue to play these $1.50 SNG's (which is the limit I've chosen for the foreseeable future), I'll gain statistics on more of my opponents. It's still uncommon now for me to find a table where I've played with even 1-2 of the players before, so when I'm with brand new players, the only info I really have is what they've done that game, and the results of a search on them.

I do tag everyone I play with using a colour code indicating whether they appear to be a grinder, a recreational player, or unknown (they've hidden themselves from search and I don't see them at more than one table). This tells me a *little* bit about their possible competence, but I still need to see them play, and gather stats, before I'd know enough to make an informed decision on whether to 3-bet in the situation in question.

Forest knowledge, if you will.
 

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