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Is this a leak?

 
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Is this a leak? - Fri Oct 07, 2011, 07:00 PM
(#1)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
SilverStar
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I called a raise out of the small blind because I like to play suited connectors in multiway pots. When the original raiser bets into the field I put him on a jack, possibly ace jack. The ten on the turn makes my straight, but king queen is the nuts. I'm not worried that he has king queen because I don't think he would bet into the field with that hand. When the seven comes on the river I'm more concerned about losing my action than having the worst hand. I had him on a jack the whole way.

My concern is that I left him with six big blinds, I think that this is a leak. If so, how bad is this leak?
 
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Fri Oct 07, 2011, 10:24 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Whether this entire hand is a leak or not depends highly upon what you know about the tendencies of the players at your table, and your reasons for coming along in the pot.
If you will make this play "every time" from the small blind, then it probably is a leak to play 78s oop agaisnt a raise in a multi-way pot.
If you only make it against certain opponent types, for certain amounts, then it can be a play with decent expectation.

Consider these questions:

1) Do you know how to "range" your opponents' start hand selections to better assess whether a flop has hit each of them or not?

2) Can you judge each of the opponents on how strongly they have hit (or if they've missed) the flop based upon their actions post flop?

3) What are the likely post flop bet sizing choices for opponents in the hand?

4) How often, and when, will the opponents in this hand C-Bet, and/or RAISE a C-Bet?

5) Can the opponents in the hand FOLD if you make a strong semi bluff bet, raise, or check raise?

6) Do you know the difference between "clean outs" and "dirty outs", and how that will effect the value of a drawing hand based on "flop texture"?

7) Do you have a grasp on what "effective stack" means, and how it effects your play of a drawing hand?

8) Do you understand "relative position"; what that means and how to use it?

9) Do you understand how to assess "implied odds" as well as well as pot odds?

The more of these items you can answer, either through your own poker knowledge, or through your table observations, the more viable calling a SMALL RAISE (which this was) out of position in a multi-way pot becomes. The less fleshed out your answers are to these questions, the more apt you should be to stick with playing suited connectors only in position, or even not at all.

As played here, there IS reason to call a small raise out of position if you have at least some of these info items upon which to work.
(Mainly Because: the 5c additional call is a pretty small portion of your stack, and even if you must fold that it does not hurt your chance to profit at the table much. If you DO flop well though, as long as opponents are loose enough to pay off with 2nd best hands, the chance to win a good deal more than you have at risk is worthwhile to make the try here)

When you flop the oesd, even though some of your "outs" MAY make an opponent a better hand, there could be reason to call this slightly less than half pot bet.
(Mainly Because: both the other opponents folded out, and with $1.70 behind the 12c bet, your remaining villain could possibly stack off the entirety of his stack. How MUCH he will stack off of that on given hands strengths plays a big part of whether or not your implied odds are for his entire stack, or just a part of it)

When you make your straight on the turn, you probably should have tried for the check/raise by making it around 72c to go. I am only saying this because if the villain has been willing to fire 2 "standard" bets near to half the pot, it is probable he has some of the flop. You do fire a C/R making it 60c to go; if you feel he would call THAT, then he'd probably call 72c too. 72c there, instead of 60c, allows you to get MORE into the pot on the river. Once you have started the hand to play for the straight, having MADE the straight, you really should not be thinking about "pot control"...you should be thinking how best to get him to stack off. The time to worry about whether a T high straight is good if you make it would have been before calling the flop bet.

On the river, you only fire 98c into the pot of $1.71; why?

If you are beaten now, don't you think the villain would be willing to raise the remaining 12c in his stack? would you even CONSIDER folding for that last 12c?
(if you would, then that is a MAJOR leak)

If he has a hand which is weaker than your T high straight, but one he'd still call a 98c bet with, don't you think he'd be as willing to call the last 12c?

So yes, as bet you DO have a bet sizing leak where you are not quite extracting maximum value.
In hands like THIS, where you probably have a really good chance of being good, your sizing leak does not seem to be too severe. This CAN be deceiving though, insofar as how this translates to OTHER situations.

to really determine how big a leak this is, you have to know how much info you are working on, and how well you are processing that info. Playing these sorts of hands oop too often, and too expensively can be a MAJOR leak as well, but...

Whether or not starting to play this hand at all in this situation is a leak is far more complex a question though, and there is not enough info here to answer that effectively.
 
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Fri Oct 07, 2011, 11:01 PM
(#3)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
If you use Hold 'em Manager or Poker Tracker 3, and have played a decent amount of hands, you can get some good info on whether your play of suited connectors is profitable or not.

The last time I checked, about a week ago, over 13,000 hands I had clearly lost chips/money on medium suited connectors, which indicated to me I was misplaying them, and I'm working on plugging that leak (as well as having found out I've lost $$ by misplaying small pocket pairs).

It's always tempting to play suited connectors, because when they hit, it's an awful lot of fun.

But I believe the reality is, more often than not, you will lose money over the long term.

I could be wrong, though, if you are only doing it within particular situations as JDean described.
 
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Fri Oct 07, 2011, 11:11 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILuvPoker77 View Post
If you use Hold 'em Manager or Poker Tracker 3, and have played a decent amount of hands, you can get some good info on whether your play of suited connectors is profitable or not.

The last time I checked, about a week ago, over 13,000 hands I had clearly lost chips/money on medium suited connectors, which indicated to me I was misplaying them, and I'm working on plugging that leak (as well as having found out I've lost $$ by misplaying small pocket pairs).

It's always tempting to play suited connectors, because when they hit, it's an awful lot of fun.

But I believe the reality is, more often than not, you will lose money over the long term.

I could be wrong, though, if you are only doing it within particular situations as JDean described.
+1 to this...

A HUD with the ability to track your win/loss rate with specific hands can be HUGELY EFFECTIVE in pointing to possible mis-play of hands in certain situations.

http://www.tips4poker.com/content/hands.html <= if you look at THIS, and if you have a pretty large sample of your own hands, varying too far from the expected value of each start hand can lead you to possibly see patterns in hand TYPES that may show you leaking.

Work hard on making sure you are adjusting to conditions to derive the best possible value, and your profits with certain hand types should go up.
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:07 AM
(#5)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
SilverStar
I just checked holdem manager and I'm a decent winner with suited connectors, but I've only play 13000 hands so far.
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:13 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Nice...

See my reply to your other post...

Based only on the results of the hand here, it appears to me you DID pick the "right" bet sizing pattern to play against (someone who does not frequently C-bet large %'s of the pot).

The cheaper your oop CALLS may be, the more playable and profitable suited connectors can be oop when you also have someone who will bet and call when you DO hit.

that all happened here...and you left "just" 12c on the table.
 

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