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Should I Have Called This Turn Bet w/Pair + OESD?

 
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Should I Have Called This Turn Bet w/Pair + OESD? - Sat Oct 08, 2011, 11:49 AM
(#1)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Background:

It's early in a Premier League Qualifier tournament. I am dealt 77 on the button, 4 players limp ahead of me, and I decide to limp behind and set mine. Small blind completes behind me and BB checks, making it a 7-way pot.

Flop comes down 869 rainbow, giving me 3rd pair + an OESD.

SB bets 80 into a 280 pot, and 2 players before me call, all others fold.

So, the pot is now 440, giving me 5.5:1 on my money. I have 2 outs to hit a set, plus 8 outs to hit the draw, so I estimate my chances of improving my hand on the turn to be a roughly 4:1, and I call.

I have no problem with my call here; it didn't affect my stack that much, and the odds were clearly good.

The turn came down 2d, a blank. The SB now bet 360 into a 600 pot, one player folded, and the other called. The pot was now 1,320, giving me 3.7:1, and chances of improving my hand w/ 1 card to come were the same as on the last street.

So, mathematically, I didn't *quite* have the right odds to make the call on the turn bet. Also, calling it would mean I would have spent >1/3 on my stack on the hand, and I would have to fold if I didn't improve on the river. So, it may not have been the most fabulous decision commitment-wise.

Nevertheless, at the moment, I thought the odds were "close enough", and called.

I didn't hit my draw on the river, folded, and due to not getting many playable hands or situations from there on out, ended up in push-or-fold mode far earlier in the tournament than I would have liked, causing me to have to take a chance on a shove when a decent hand came in LP. I then lost, and busted out of the tournament fairly early, which I'm sure will cost me points.

My question is, was my call on the turn wrong, and if so, how bad was it, and why?

Also, did I do the calculations right on the odds and outs?

Thanks,

~Luv

 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:29 PM
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JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

A regular poster here (usually questions not answers) ha ha . However I just thought I could offer you some comfort regarding your play .

In my opinion , paying 2 streets of value on a draw is dependant on the bet sizing . The flop call I like of course but , the price of the second street , I think hits the stack too hard to feel confident the likelihood of success outweighs the position we find ourselves in should the draw fail .

I like paying 1 street of value to draw & re-evaluate should it miss the turn but , the bet size on the turn would force my fold and give me a chance to find profitable spots further into the tourney .

In tournaments I find myself protecting the stack until the hand and/or situation is in my favour . Of course I'm a beginner and , I have made a few misjudged plays recently that I have questioned to be honest . I just wanted to offer you some kind of assistance in your own tough spot .

P.S ... I think your calculations may be a little off , your chances of improving your hand were 3.6:1 including 10 outs . However , we may have to discount the 2 sevens 77's as outs (they may be dirty) due to the fact any opponent holding a 10 or 5 will be busting a set of 77's with their own made straight . Therefore I would say the odds of completeing a winning hand are 4.7:1 based only on the OESD cards (8 outs)

Though I would feel justified in calling the flop (due to the 'good price' and even more so the massive implied odds that a 'made straight' betting the turn & river will give you) , in my opinion when the turn misses I would be determined to fold by the bet size being offered by our opponent .

I will be interested to see what the experts say and thus re-evaluate my own thoughts on the matter . Thanks for posting this question , I enjoyed my first ever reply for what it is worth .

JARGON1977

Last edited by JARGON1977; Sun Oct 09, 2011 at 09:59 AM..
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:30 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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I just had the same type of situation in a live tourney two days ago. I called it (didn't hit one of my 10 outs either).

Yes, the actual pot-odds are a little light to make a call... but... if you hit, can you stack one or both of your opponents? If you think you can stack them if you hit, then I'm calling it every single time because even if you don't hit, you leave yourself with 20+BB's, which is a very playable stack.
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 04:39 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
First, my "simple" answer:

Flatting pre flop is fine.
Flatting the flop bet can be fine.
Flatting the turn bet is meh...

Now, the more "complex" answer, consisting of the WHY's...

Pre flop, set mining with 77 can generally lead to either a BIG win, or a small loss, so long as you are firmly stuck to the idea of set mining. You have all the hall marks of a "good" set mining spot: the right type of hand, good position, and a cheap multi-way pot to make it more likely you lose a little or get paid a lot. Raising pre to thin the field is probably too risky with a hand like 77 in a flat pay structure event, where chip preservation is at a premium.

So Nuttin' wrong with your decision here at all...

The flop comes "ok" for you, but the tricky part now is that you have SOME potential value, but not nearly the value you might have had if you had flopped a set. Let's look at your hand's value shall we...

You flop oesd, with 3rd pair to the board.

Are you likely to be BEST in a multi-way pot with that holding? Probably not.

Can you fire aggressively at this flop and get ALL the players to fold? With 5 opponents left when the flop comes, the chances that ALL of them have "missed" and are willing to fold is probably also quite small; so probably not.

Can you fire a raise over that 80 chips and at least eliminate SOME opponents? MAYBE! But since this is a flat pay structure event, and losing chips now may adversely effect your score potential in this event, and since THAT effects the rest of your month as well, making a standard raise to around 240 to go is going to be pretty hard to FOLD if you get called and do not improve. with the option of taking a "cheap" card to see the turn, my need for chip preservation would probably prefer that choice.

All these factors mean you will likely need some improvement to your hand to win...

Whenever you need improvement to win, the ONLY "outs" that are 100% guarenteed for you are those which give you the nut hand. All other outs have the potential to improve you to a stronger 2nd best hand. This means you must apply some sort of "discount" to outs that will not give you the nuts. See this: http://www.pokerjesusonline.com/discounting_outs.htm

Let's look at your outs...

OESD outs = 8 (4 5's and 4 T's).

For me, I am definately discounting the 4 5's as "full outs", but not much.

While there are no BETTER straights than the 9 hi straight I'd make if the 5 comes that are not already possible here (a 5 would not improve a 97 hand more than it improves me, and a T7 hand already holds a straight), a 5 coming could make me a strong 2nd best hand that could cost me big time versus that T hi straight if it is there. But because I already hold "blockers" to the ONLY hand hand that would be ahead of me if I spike a 5, I'm not discounting them much at all.

I'd rate them as 95% of their full value of 4 outs: 4 x .95 = 3.8 outs

The T's are a bit more 'scary" for me for me if one comes, simply because my 1 card straight is now NOT the "best" straight likely. QJ is the nut straight, and anyone with a J7 also has a better straight than mine. Since a QJ would have had to call the bet on a gut shot and over card draw (10 possible outs), that could be a hand weak players stick around with for a small bet. A J7 also has an OESD, so as readily as you would be to stick for this bet, that hand might stick as well.

Still, those are just 2 hands to be "worried" about, so i'm only liable to discount T's to around 80% of their full value: 4 x .80 = 3.2 outs

The 2 7's also improve me, but unlike flopping a set, those 7's are not ideal for me if I turn one of them. A 7 coming now puts 4 consecutive cards on the board, and that makes a 1 card straight for anyone holding a 5 or T. That means making a set NOW leaves me little choice but to play "pot control" in hopes of rivering a boat, and that kills much of my chances to get value from this improvement, even it is IS the best hand. So...

5's may not really be in a ton of hands, but T's with a pair, or another board over surely could be, so I am probably only rating the 2 7's as about 50% their value here: 2 x .50 = 1 out

Adding those up, and my total out "value" is: 8 outs.

That means I will likely improve to the best hand ON THE NEXT CARD about 17% of the time (8 outs divided by 47 unknown cards = 17.02%). To make the pot odds "right" for a roughly 17% chance, I need about 4.88 to 1. You have this here because the 80 chip bet was so small, and there were other callers.

You also can possibly figure someone ahead of you will bet if you do spike, and that means you are likely to win more than just the amount the pot is now by sticking around. That leverages your implied odds higher, as a function of how wildly aggressive these particular opponents might be with lesser hands than you could make on the turn.

It seems you have an easy decision to call this small bet to peel the turn.

BUT...

In MTT play, you are not only looking at chip accumulation, but also chip preservation. If chip accumulation were your only goal (like in a cash game), you OBVIOUSLY have the right price to call the 80 bet to see the turn. In MTT play though, you need MORE than the bare minimum to call, since taking a 17% chance to win means you will still LOSE about 83% of the time...see?

This requires you to look at your total pot investment n terms of your stack size, for calling that 80 chip bet.

Your total investment is 120 off a 1420 start stack.
At less than 10% total, you are no where near a committment point yet.
If you must FOLD on the turn, you still have 1300 chips (32.5BB), and that represents an amount which still leaves open "standard" play lines for you.

That means CALLING the 80 chips to see if you spike is still fine for you, based on your current stack size...

On to the turn...

You MISS the turn and the SB now LEADS for larger than half the pot (instead of a tiny bet). rut roh rel-roy! (Jetson's reference if you do not know it )

Since the 2 held little chance for improving him, What does that tiny bet followed by a larger one MEAN?
Was he slow playing the straight?
Was he slow playing a bigger set than the one I might make?
Is he trying to set his own price to keep drawing?
Is he bluffing to get the 2 remaining players to fold?

The line taken by the SB here probably indicates some strength, but that strength may be in the form of just a over pair...or it could be the nuts.

Before even worrying about anything else, look at your new risk/reward ratio for calling...

You are facing a call of 360 for a potential "win" of 1320 (3.67 to 1), but your chances to improve are still only about 17% (17.4% actually, 8 live outs divided by 46 unknown cards). that means almost 83% of the time, you will have to FOLD the river if the SB bets again (which he is quite likely to do).

Calling 360 puts you at a 480 total chip investment in the pot (33.8% of your start stack), and that represents a committing call. THAT deep into the pot, you are far better served by either JAMMING or FOLDING, not calling in hopes of spiking. Why? Simple...

In order to get the "right price" you need to win MORE than what is in the pot now.
CALLING leaves you only the chance of winning by making the BEST HAND on the river (17.4% chance of that, pretty small), and...

Waiting to stand until you spike may dry up your action, and get you nothing more than what is in there now.

Of course with the strength shown by the SB's line, their is little chance you are folding out both opponents with a jam...that means you would be falling back on only about a 17% chance to win by spiking if you do jam here. do you want to lose 1/3rd of your start stack about 83% of the time by calling?

in this spot, you took your "cheap" shots, and did not hit. It is time to cut your losses I'd say, especially in a League tourney where chip preservation is so important.

You should FOLD this river.

See?

Last edited by JDean; Sat Oct 08, 2011 at 04:49 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 04:41 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
Hello ,

A regular poster here (usually questions not answers) ha ha . However I just thought I could offer you some comfort regarding your play .

In my opinion , paying 2 streets of value on a draw is dependant on the bet sizing . The flop call I like of course but , the price of the second street , I think hits the stack too hard to feel confident the likelihood of success outweighs the position we find ourselves in should the draw fail .

I like paying 1 street of value to draw & re-evaluate should it miss the turn , the bet size on the turn would force my fold and give me a chance to find profitable spots further into the tourney .

In tournaments I find myself protecting the stack until the hand and/or situation is in my favour . Of course I'm a beginner and , I have made a few misjudged plays recently that I have questioned to be honest . I just wanted to offer you some kind of assistance in your own tough spot .

P.S ... I think your calculations may be a little off , your chances of improving your hand were 3.6:1 including 10 outs ,

Though I would feel justified in calling the flop (due to the implied odds that a 'made straight' betting the turn & river will give you) , in my opinion when the turn misses I would be determined to fold .

I will be interested to see what the experts say and thus re-evaluate my own thoughts on the matter . Thanks for posting this question , I enjoyed my first ever reply for what it is worth .

JARGON1977
this is a spot on assessment Jargon...I jsut used different (and more) words.

 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 05:37 PM
(#6)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Wow -- thank you all for your excellent feedback!

Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
In tournaments I find myself protecting the stack until the hand and/or situation is in my favour . Of course I'm a beginner and , I have made a few misjudged plays recently that I have questioned to be honest . I just wanted to offer you some kind of assistance in your own tough spot.
Thanks, Jargon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
P.S ... I think your calculations may be a little off...
I think you're right. At this level of my development, I still often forget to recognize and subtract discounted outs. Thanks for the reminder.

JARGON1977[/QUOTE]
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Yes, the actual pot-odds are a little light to make a call... but... if you hit, can you stack one or both of your opponents?
You know, I think I was recognizing the implications of winning (that it would be more than what was in the pot right then), even though I hadn't mentally phrased it with such clarity. Yes, I think I very likely could have stacked at least one of them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Pre flop, set mining with 77 can generally lead to either a BIG win, or a small loss, so long as you are firmly stuck to the idea of set mining. You have all the hall marks of a "good" set mining spot: the right type of hand, good position, and a cheap multi-way pot to make it more likely you lose a little or get paid a lot. Raising pre to thin the field is probably too risky with a hand like 77 in a flat pay structure event, where chip preservation is at a premium.
My thoughts at the time exactly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
The flop comes "ok" for you, but the tricky part now is that you have SOME potential value, but not nearly the value you might have had if you had flopped a set.
Yes. I realized at this point that I was going to deviate from my original plan (fold to any bet if I miss the set) and continue with the hand, at least to some extent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Let's look at your hand's value shall we...

You flop oesd, with 3rd pair to the board.

Are you likely to be BEST in a multi-way pot with that holding? Probably not.
I realized that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Can you fire aggressively at this flop and get ALL the players to fold? With 5 opponents left when the flop comes, the chances that ALL of them have "missed" and are willing to fold is probably also quite small; so probably not.

Can you fire a raise over that 80 chips and at least eliminate SOME opponents? MAYBE! But since this is a flat pay structure event, and losing chips now may adversely effect your score potential in this event, and since THAT effects the rest of your month as well, making a standard raise to around 240 to go is going to be pretty hard to FOLD if you get called and do not improve. with the option of taking a "cheap" card to see the turn, my need for chip preservation would probably prefer that choice.
Yes, these are the reasons I didn't risk a raise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
All these factors mean you will likely need some improvement to your hand to win...
I knew that from the start.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Whenever you need improvement to win, the ONLY "outs" that are 100% guarenteed for you are those which give you the nut hand. All other outs have the potential to improve you to a stronger 2nd best hand. This means you must apply some sort of "discount" to outs that will not give you the nuts. See this:
Thanks. I understand the concept of discounting outs, and have learned about it before, but as I said above, I tend to forget to actually DO it. :P

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Let's look at your outs...

OESD outs = 8 (4 5's and 4 T's).

For me, I am definately discounting the 4 5's as "full outs", but not much...I'd rate them as 95% of their full value of 4 outs: 4 x .95 = 3.8 outs
Thank you SO MUCH for this information. Even if I had recognized the need to discount the 7's, I don't think it would have occurred to me to discount the 5's at all. I'll try to keep that kind of consideration in mind in the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Still, those are just 2 hands to be "worried" about, so i'm only liable to discount T's to around 80% of their full value: 4 x .80 = 3.2 outs
Again, I wouldn't have thought to discount the 10's at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
The 2 7's also improve me, but unlike flopping a set, those 7's are not ideal for me if I turn one of them. A 7 coming now puts 4 consecutive cards on the board, and that makes a 1 card straight for anyone holding a 5 or T. That means making a set NOW leaves me little choice but to play "pot control" in hopes of rivering a boat, and that kills much of my chances to get value from this improvement, even it is IS the best hand. So...
All excellent points. I think I had "tunnel vision" and did not at all consider the full implications of turning a 7 (that it wouldn't be so great).

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Adding those up, and my total out "value" is: 8 outs.

That means I will likely improve to the best hand ON THE NEXT CARD about 17% of the time (8 outs divided by 47 unknown cards = 17.02%). To make the pot odds "right" for a roughly 17% chance, I need about 4.88 to 1. You have this here because the 80 chip bet was so small, and there were other callers.

You also can possibly figure someone ahead of you will bet if you do spike, and that means you are likely to win more than just the amount the pot is now by sticking around. That leverages your implied odds higher, as a function of how wildly aggressive these particular opponents might be with lesser hands than you could make on the turn.

It seems you have an easy decision to call this small bet to peel the turn.
Well, at least I got that part basically right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
BUT...

In MTT play, you are not only looking at chip accumulation, but also chip preservation...that means CALLING the 80 chips to see if you spike is still fine for you, based on your current stack size...
I got this part right too. I did consider the need for chip conservation, and decided the impact to my stack was worth the risk at this stage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
On to the turn...

You MISS the turn and the SB now LEADS for larger than half the pot (instead of a tiny bet). rut roh rel-roy! (Jetson's reference if you do not know it )
LOL...yes, I do know it (although admitting that reveals my age a bit...)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
You are facing a call of 360 for a potential "win" of 1320 (3.67 to 1), but your chances to improve are still only about 17% (17.4% actually, 8 live outs divided by 46 unknown cards). that means almost 83% of the time, you will have to FOLD the river if the SB bets again (which he is quite likely to do).

Calling 360 puts you at a 480 total chip investment in the pot (33.8% of your start stack), and that represents a committing call. THAT deep into the pot, you are far better served by either JAMMING or FOLDING, not calling in hopes of spiking. Why? Simple...
I get what you're saying. In this case, the choice of action is:

Folding, (is better than) jamming, (is better than) calling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
In order to get the "right price" you need to win MORE than what is in the pot now.
I do think I intuitively understood that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
CALLING leaves you only the chance of winning by making the BEST HAND on the river (17.4% chance of that, pretty small)
I hear you loud and clear.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Waiting to stand until you spike may dry up your action, and get you nothing more than what is in there now.
In this case, I didn't think the action drying up was likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Of course with the strength shown by the SB's line, their is little chance you are folding out both opponents with a jam...that means you would be falling back on only about a 17% chance to win by spiking if you do jam here. do you want to lose 1/3rd of your start stack about 83% of the time by calling?
NO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
in this spot, you took your "cheap" shots, and did not hit. It is time to cut your losses I'd say, especially in a League tourney where chip preservation is so important.

You should FOLD this river.

See?
Yes, crystal clear. Thanks again!

Last edited by ILuvPoker77; Sat Oct 08, 2011 at 05:41 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 06:04 PM
(#7)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
Hi luv gl JD great explanation and thx for the question+example luv
gl all r0ck
 

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