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On the other side of the luck

 
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On the other side of the luck - Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:27 PM
(#1)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
Was my last hand and i decided just to call pre-flop for fun, only 8 cents right. So i got a decent pair on the flop. then the other guy had trips King on the Turn and i had a straight draw with limited outs. And finally miss fortune hit me for once.

It is problaby a very bad played had but i would like to get it annalysed anyway what would u have done in my situation?

 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 12:57 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Like your play preflop and on the flop. The turn bet with an over-card is way too much. 115% of the pot with 2nd pair is really high.. I'd have bet about 1/2 pot. You got lucky this time, but over the long term, that type of bet is a bigtime losing proposition.
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 06:29 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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ooops, double post
 
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Sat Oct 08, 2011, 06:29 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Check out this link: http://dictionary.pokerzone.com/Threshold+of+Pain

It is about the concept of "Threshold of Pain" in poker.

Pre-flop, your decision to stay or fold should not be made on the basis of "well it is my last hand, and it is only 8c".

I'm not saying there are NOT reasons to do what you did (call along) with your JT, but consider this Mike Caro quote which is a corollary to the above concept (Threshold of Pain is also a Mike Caro concept by the way):

Money you do not LOSE, is precisely equal to money you WIN.

Think about that for a second...

Just because this is your last hand today, does not mean it is your last hand of poker FOREVER, right?

If you are going to play again tomorrow, when you base your decision on the fact that "it is only 8c", then doesn't that mean that if you LOSE as a result of that "bad" decision process, you are 8c POORER than you'd be if you had folded and quit instead?

Let's say you lose that 8c call today. Tomorrow I come to you and say this:
"I have magic powers Tiber, and I am going to give you a choice. I will either LOWER YOUR LOSS from yesterday by 8c, or INCREASE YOUR WINS by 8c. Which do you choose?"

The answer is (or should be) it does not matter which. The amount of money you'd have to play on TODAY is exactly the same either way.

You often LACK the power to control how much you win.

Such is the case in this hand when you spike a 4 out-er to beat the turned set of K's, and get a double up: you needed to "get lucky" to avoid a loss here, and that luck also held so far as to give your opponent a strong hand he could call your entire stack with...so you got paid MORE than you might have if he had not hit his K.

If either of those "luck factors" had not come to pass, you probably LOSE the hand, or you win LESS...thus taking out of your hands your ability to "control" your win size.

BUT...

At no point in this hand (until the river) did you hold the "nut" hand. That means without luck, you may well have lost far MORE than your "oh it is just 8c"...make those sorts of decisions too often, and you are going to make pretty certain the fact you will be a long term loser in poker. You should try to configure all your decisions to give you POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE, and not on "luck" factors if you seek to become a long term winner.

It is a slippery slope you can slide down and create vastly LARGER losses when you hit bottom, if at any point you "give up" on your A game so much as to base your decisions solely on whether or not the loss is a "painful amount". Just because you won a good pot this time does NOT mean it will happen every time.

Think about it...
 

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