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Is this too Loose?

 
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Is this too Loose? - Sun Oct 09, 2011, 12:53 AM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hi this was a $4.50 MTT tourney over 2300 starters
10 players left On the final table bubble not a huge money jump from 10th to 9th but 10th to 1st was 20 times better.
All players are fairly TAG, first to the pot was normally winning.
I wasn't the shortest but not far off it.
With more than a quarter of my stack out there to steal.
When i first lost i thought it was the wrong play but looking back i think it might of been not that bad.
Look forward to your thoughts
 
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Sun Oct 09, 2011, 01:26 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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I actually like it. You're not the shortest stack but close to it. You've got one opponent isolated and if they fold, you gain almost 30% in relation to your stack. If there were alot of stacks shorter than you, then I'd wait and try to move up the pay scale a bit first.... but in your situation (M of about 4), like the push, especially isolated against 1 opp.

Against ATC, you're the favorite in a coin flip, if only against any pair/suited/broadway/ace... you're just behind in a flip... and at this point in a tourney, being in a flip is not that bad of a situation to have all your chips into. Unfortunately for you, instead of being in a coin flip, you were a 3-1 underdog since they had you dominated both suited and with J and higher kicker.
 
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Sun Oct 09, 2011, 04:38 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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You are under 10BB and it folds to you in the SB.

You do not have a hand that you'd like to get called with, but you do need chips pretty badly.

Whether NOW is the time to go here really depends somewhat on the BB's likely call range. Break it down:

If the villain's (CrazyNut) range is too TIGHT, you are in big trouble if he calls, BUT he will have a calling hand rarely. If you think his call range is around 30% or tighter, if he DOES call you'll be in bad shape, but 7 out of 10 times (or even more if tighter than that) he will NOT have a hand and fold. My gut feeling tells me that is often enough to be worth the risk of a call after you jam.

If CrazyNut's range is WIDER than about 30%, but is not truly random, you are in bad shape really. Versus a 100% call range (ATC call), you only have about 51% equity with J8o; and even slightly tighter than random means you probably are a dog to his total range. When you consider that this is WAY loose (between 30% and about 90% call range), you will get calls TOO OFTEN to really want to go for the try, even though you are short. This is especially true because if you fold, and can exercise first in vig when on the button, the BB player on THAT hand will carry a lot more FE for you (because if HE loses you will cripple esa vl), and the 1 mil+ stack of CrazyNut may find folding his SB EASIER after being given a walk.

So...

Since you can probably see a reasonably TIGHT call range by CrazyNut here (because a loss to you = a 30% chip loss), I'm not saying your jam is BAD; there is a strong chance he got to the FT because he does have some poker skill afterall. BUT if he IS a bit more maniacal in his call range (but not truly ATC), J8o is just a bit too WEAK to push into a stack 3 times yours when you might fine a better spot on the next orbit with a 9BB stack that will still carry decent FE.

MOST of the time really, what you did here is fine, but versus very select types, there might be a BETTER choice.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 03:10 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Looks like a standard shove. There may be a few hands I'd pass here (32o, T3o, etc.), but J8 is not one of them. You have a very small stack and need to make a move. I'm pretty sure shoving J8 on this stack size is always going to be +EV.

Most of the time you take the blinds and antes, and even when called you're only really screwed against JJ+.

If he calls with a 20% range, we win the pot 80% of the time and the other 20% we're about a 2 to 1 dog (note I'm lazy so I'm just going to split up the ties giving half to our wins and half to our losses):

.8*(85k)+.2*(.33*(400k)-.67*(310k))=+53k That's about 1/6 of our stack!

Say he calls with a 30% range. That means 70% of the time you take the pot and 30% of the time you win about 39% and lose about 61%:

.7*(85k)+.3*(.39*(400k)-.61*(310k))=+50k

What if he calls with 40% (note we perform almost the same against this range):

.6*(85k)+.4*(.41*(400k)-.59*(310k))=+43k

50%?

.5*(85k)+.5*(.43*(400k)-.57*(310k))=+40k still about 1BB +EV

60%?
.4*(85k)+.6*(.46*(400k)-.54*(310k))=+41k

100%?
0*(85k)+1*(.51*(400k)-.49*(310k))=+52k

These are just estimates, but our shove seems to be always +EV, bottoming out around +1BB. On 8 BBs any +EV spot is surely worth taking and our shove appears to be unexploitable.

Of course there is a difference in +cEV vs. +$EV but again, we have 8 BBs, and the BB really shouldn't be calling with those wider ranges because of how much losing hurts him.
 

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